Weekly Forecast
The EUR/USD pair pulled back in the last full week of August, settling a handful of pips below the 1.1600 mark. The US Dollar (USD) was able to post a comeback after suffering steady losses throughout the month, exacerbated by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury announcement of increased long-bond buybacks on August 19.
After rising nearly 14% in a three-week rally and reaching its highest level since mid-May near $4,700, Gold (XAU/USD) corrected lower to end the week in negative territory. August employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a directional move next week, while the technical picture highlights that the bullish stance persists in the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) extends gains so far this week, trading near $80,000 after testing the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81,114 earlier. Strong institutional demand is supporting the rally, with spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track to record a second consecutive week of billion-dollar inflows.
It has already been a positive week for the US Dollar (USD), but a hawkish speech from Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium may have laid the groundwork for a more sustained rebound in the Buck.
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In-Depth Analysis
The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.
On September 8, Canada begins charging its own importers 15%, 25% and 50% on roughly 700 lines of American goods. The measure is billed as dollar for dollar, and on the arithmetic of covered trade it is. What it is not is a tax on the United States.
