Weekly Forecast
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.
Gold (XAU/USD) delivered a masterclass in volatility in the first half of the year, rising more than 20% in the January-February period before entering a downtrend that saw the precious metal lose nearly 30% from March to the end of the second quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) is modestly recovering, trading at $65,400 on Friday and holding firmly above the key support zone. US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) supported BTC’s modest recovery as they continued to attract institutional inflows through Thursday, pointing to the third consecutive week of inflows.
Silver’s spectacular rise and brutal collapse in 2026 may look like the classic boom and bust story. But the metal’s rollercoaster ride is more complex: Silver was caught in the crossfire of the Iran war as investors fled precious metals, the US Dollar strengthened and rate-cut expectations faded.
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In-Depth Analysis
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.
One month ago, this column left an open question hanging. The iceberg that drove the spring Gilt sell-off was drifting away, the credibility premium was the only layer Westminster could actually steer, and nobody knew how big the new government would let it grow. On Monday the question got its owner.
