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The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

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In-Depth Analysis

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.

Diesel keeps climbing until someone reopens a pipeline
American Diesel costs $6.285 a gallon, more than it has ever cost, and it got there in a year when Gasoline never came close to its own record. Gasoline sits about 14% below the high it set in June 2022. Diesel sits about 8% above the high it set that month. Same crude, same refineries, same taxes, and nearly $2 a gallon between them. The world is not badly short of Oil.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin hits $85,000 as rally gains momentum, but liquidity risks linger

Bitcoin claims the $85,000 level on Monday after gaining 5.64% and closing above the 50-week SMA at $78,200 the previous week. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded mild $6.21 million inflows last week, showing resilience despite the CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed outlook.

Ripple extends rally toward $1.50 as derivatives activity rises despite ETF outflows

Ripple (XRP) holds a strong bullish picture, rising to trade near $1.50 on Monday. The remittance token marks four consecutive days of gains, supported by robust momentum indicators and increased risk appetite in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP hold bullish outlook amid improving ETF inflows

Cryptocurrencies are broadly rising on Monday, led by Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge to $85,000. Altcoins are following BTC’s bullish trend, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above $2,700 and Ripple (XRP) holding steady at $1.47.

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Stocks

PEP price outlook: PepsiCo, Inc. breaks below 0.786 support Arc – Potential decline toward 127.70
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, PepsiCo, Inc. has broken below the 0.786 Support Arc within the current Arc Cycle. The breakdown confirms a bearish shift in price structure and opens the potential for continued movement toward the next Support Arc. Price has broken below the 0.786 Support Arc, confirming a bearish breakdown within the current Arc Cycle.

Weekly Forecast

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains
The EUR/USD pair closed the week below 1.1500, not far above a fresh multi-week low of 1.1454. The US Dollar (USD) rallied following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, the sole market catalyst this past week.
BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.
Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed
Bitcoin (BTC) price action has remained resilient this week, trading above $78,000 at the time of writing on Friday, heading toward a key resistance zone. Institutional demand shows early signs of weakness, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track for a second straight week of outflows, with over $420 million recorded through Thursday amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Forecasting the upcoming week: Trump, Xi, oil, tariffs and PMIs
A very positive week saw the US Dollar (USD) climb to new seven-week tops, mostly backed by the hawkish tilt at the FOMC event on Wednesday while unabated strength in Crude Oil prices have also underpinned the move during the first half of the week.