All participants at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September 15–16 meeting supported the 25-basis-point rate increase, while most judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year. The Minutes show policymakers increasingly focused on upside inflation risks, a resilient economy and the possibility that strong AI investment could add to demand pressures.

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In-Depth Analysis

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.

The New Zealand Dollar sits near a one-year low after six straight weekly losses. This chart shows the key support that could decide what comes next

The market is pricing a BoJ pause. Here's why Ueda's 'keep raising rates' could force a sharp Yen repricing

France's government could fall over the budget. Here's what that would actually mean for the Euro

The Euro (EUR) is trading at its lowest level since May 2025, nearly 7% below its January peak, and France's government could fall over its 2027 budget before the end of November. A French government falling hasn't moved the Euro much by itself, so the risk to price is narrower: France losing its place under the emergency safety net the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps for government bonds.

The US 10-year just hit a 2002 high. Does it give the US Dollar its next leg?

Gold failed to rally on the weakest jobs data in months. Here’s what the speculators are really doing

Cryptocurrencies

Ripple tumbles as sell-side pressure intensifies

Ripple edges lower and trades at $1.45 on Wednesday, as headwinds intensify across the crypto market. Major crypto assets remain in bearish hands, with Bitcoin falling below $84,000 and Ethereum below $2,800.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fall liquidating $550M

Bitcoin’s correction follows a recent rejection due to supply around $87,200. Altcoins are generally in a correction trend, as Ethereum edges lower toward the next key support at $2,600 and Ripple extends its down leg near the $1.45 demand area.

Polygon extends decline as shutdown rumors fuel panic selling

Polygon is down nearly 5% on Wednesday, amid selling pressure linked to rumors of a network shutdown sparked by a social media post. Derivatives data shows a sell-side dominance as Open Interest declines 13% over the last 24 hours while funding rates flip negative.

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Stocks

S&P 500 (SPX) pushing toward fresh highs in wave ((v))

The short-term Elliott Wave view in the S&P 500 indicates that the cycle from the March 30, 2026 low remains active, unfolding as a five-swing diagonal structure. From that low, wave ((i)) concluded at 7620.9, followed by a corrective decline in wave ((ii)) which ended at 7237.85. The Index then resumed its upward trajectory, advancing in wave ((iii)) toward 7816.7.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: EU inflation outpaces US price growth as ECB, Fed meetings loom

The US Dollar (USD) had yet another positive week, appreciating sharply against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair fell for a fourth consecutive week and traded as low as 1.1215, a level last seen in May 2025. As the weekend approaches, the pair hovers around 1.1280 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from an over one-year high.

France’s 10-year yield hits highest since 2002: This chart shows the market losing faith

France’s bond market is sending an increasingly uncomfortable message. The country’s 10-year government bond yield climbed as high as 4.96% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since July 2002 and moving within touching distance of the psychologically important 5% threshold.

Gold: Precious metal extends slide but safe-haven flows limit losses

Bitcoin: Is BTC setting up for an Uptober rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) extends its gains, trading near $86,000 at the time of writing on Friday after closing September 6.33% up, reversing its seasonal weakness. Historical data suggest October could be a strong month for BTC, especially after a positive September.

US Dollar: Rally faces next test as inflation retakes centre stage

The US Dollar’s (USD) rally remained everything but abated, climbing for the third consecutive week and reaching levels last seen in April 2025. The move higher came on the back of a mixed performance in US Treasury yields, extending their rally in the belly and long end of the curve while losing some momentum at the short end.