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US midterms 2026: Battle for Washington and market reaction

As votes are counted for the House and Senate, markets assess how political balance in Washington could shape the USD outlook, rate expectations, and risk sentiment.

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EUR/USD clings to gains around 1.1200; focus is on US Midterms

United States: Democratic gains seen constraining Trump – Deutsche Bank

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GBP/USD extends the upside momentum past 1.3400

AUD/USD weakens to two-week lows near 0.6960

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP under pressure as investors pull capital

US Dollar Index edges up within range with midterm elections front and centre

The US Dollar Index is picking up from session lows but remains within previous ranges, below 102.00. The Greenback is drawing support from hostilities in Iran and higher Oil prices, but US political uncertainty is capping gains.

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BoC’s Macklem signals more rate hikes as Oil fuels inflation risks

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National Bank of Poland: Policy on extended hold – ING

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Japanese Yen struggles amid elevated Oil prices and wide rate differentials

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British Pound flatlines as US jobs strength, election risks loom

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Gold turns lower again as volatile Oil prices keep traders cautious

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Euro trades flat as US midterms and US-Iran developments keep traders cautious

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Silver: Price decline seen as excessive - Commerzbank

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Brent: Pullback on US-Iran talks – ING

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In-Depth Analysis

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.

Warsh is cutting the Fed's rate meetings. Fewer decisions, bigger moves

The Fed can't fix this inflation. It's a mechanical weight, not a demand problem

What a split Congress means for the US Dollar

The United States (US) is going to the polls on Tuesday, and much is at stake. The mid-term elections mean the renovation of roughly one-third of the Senate and all 435 of the House seats. Additionally, special elections in Florida and Ohio will be held to fill the seats vacated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

European Central Bank faces 3-year-high inflation at 3.8%

Gold's bounce off $3,870 isn't a bottom yet

Cryptocurrencies

Ripple clings to $1.25 support as Binance reserves hit five-year low

XRP bulls gather around $1.25, eyeing a short-term recovery attempt as the broader crypto market consolidates. Binance's XRP reserves fall sharply, reaching the lowest level since 2021 following the resumption of withdrawals on the exchange.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP under pressure as investors pull capital

Bitcoin trades downward at $76,566 on Tuesday, testing six-week lows. Ethereum, like Bitcoin, trades under pressure as it consolidates within a narrow support range. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers marginally above $1.25.

Bitcoin risks deeper losses as the 200-day EMA comes under pressure

Bitcoin slips toward the key support zone around $76,455 on Tuesday, after falling nearly 2% the previous day. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization nears a make-or-break level, with a daily close below $76,455 suggesting a deeper breakdown.

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Stocks

Strong iPhone sales fortify Apple's Q4 result

A robust fourth-quarter for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales helped the tech titan beat Wall Street's consensus on Monday. Apple reported $57.58 billion in iPhone sales in Q4, beating the average analyst estimate by more than a billion. However, AAPL stock shed close to 4% afterhours despite the top and bottom line beat.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: US President Donald Trump judgment day has come

The EUR/USD pair settled around 1.1160, down for the week and closing October with losses. The US Dollar (USD) advanced through the first half of the week but changed course after the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement, then fell further after the European Central Bank (ECB) reported the same decision. The Greenback regained some poise on Friday, as risk aversion took the lead.

European Central Bank faces 3-year-high inflation at 3.8%

The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a difficult monetary policy environment as Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September, its highest level in three years and almost twice the central bank's 2% target.

Gold: Bears dominate even as US yields push lower ahead of midterm election

Bitcoin: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lower

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to weaken this week, down more than 3% and heading for its fourth straight weekly loss. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is facing a bearish outlook, fueled by a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook at the October meeting and a reported $6.3 billion hack at Binance, which is driving risk aversion and triggering heavy liquidations.

US Dollar: A hawkish Fed is no longer enough

The US Dollar (USD) managed to regain some composure, ending the week with acceptable gains after surrendering some ground following earlier two-week highs. Indeed, the US Dollar Index (DXY), at some point in the last few days, popped to as high as the 102.50 zone, just to lose some momentum soon afterwards despite keeping its weekly bullish mood well in place.