Two cost shocks are in the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), and they have different half-lives. Energy is up 20.4% on the year and accounts for about 1.3 points of the 3.7% headline, and that shock reverses when Oil does: Brent was back at its pre-war price on July 1 and above $100 again by the end of the month, after the ceasefire collapsed on July 8.

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In-Depth Analysis

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.

Stock futures just went red on the CPI. Here's what the bond market is pricing that equities haven't caught up to

The Iran war will eventually end. Tariffs won't. Here's the problem

S&P 500 earnings just hit a record. The AI data centre bill hasn't landed yet

S&P 500 companies are on track for a third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%, according to FactSet. Their profit margin hit 17% in the April-June quarter, the highest in FactSet data going back to 2009. The cash behind those earnings has been shrinking for two years, and almost all of the shrinkage is in the handful of companies building data centres for artificial intelligence (AI).

China's rare earth leverage has an expiration date: November 10. Here's what Beijing is deciding

A historic Treasury rout is underway. Investors are buying it at record size

Cryptocurrencies

XRP turns bearish as US inflation jitters hit crypto

Ripple is stuck in a bearish trend, trading near $1.30 on Thursday. The remittance token’s bearish shift reflects the broader cryptocurrency market, which remains under heavy selling amid concerns about accelerating inflation in the US.

Pi Network extends losses ahead of Protocol v28 Mainnet upgrade

Pi Network (PI) trades around $0.0780 at press time on Thursday, rising from $0.0740 earlier in the day. Pi Mainnet is scheduled for the Protocol v28 upgrade on Friday, focusing on data handling and smart contract maintenance.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP test short-term support amid market-wide selling

Cryptocurrency prices remain under intense selling pressure on Thursday, with Bitcoin struggling to hold above $81,000 after testing its key demand area near $80,000. Ethereum reflects Bitcoin’s weakening technical outlook, edging lower below $2,400.

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Stocks

Nike targets potential support at $35–$30 as selling pressure intensifies

Nike has been falling sharply over the past few months, making new lows and breaking below 2025 levels, which suggests the price may now be targeting levels not seen since 2016. Despite the ongoing decline, this could still be the late stage of a higher-degree wave C, potentially allowing for a more meaningful rebound toward the end of this year or early 2027.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: US Dollar persistent demand hints at a test of 1.1000

The EUR/USD pair maintained its bearish route, edging lower for a fifth consecutive week. The pair traded as low as 1.1161 before trimming some losses, settling on Friday at around 1.1210. Financial markets were once again all about US Dollar (USD) momentum and risk aversion, with government bond yields stealing the limelight while hitting multi-decade highs.

Scott Bessent has a plan to cut mortgage rates. It hinges on one war

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to lower borrowing costs has two parts. One is buying back more long-dated government bonds. The other is getting past the war with Iran; after that, he has reportedly said rates should drop. The 30-year mortgage rate is at its highest in almost three years, and the bond yield it follows has added very little for war-driven inflation.

Gold: Precious metal finds support but upside potential remains limited

Bitcoin: Uptober or Rektober?

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down over 4% so far this week, trading below $83,000 at the time of writing on Friday as mounting selling pressure threatens to derail the seasonal “Uptober” rally. Profit-taking, a surge in long liquidations and weakening demand from institutional investors are weighing on BTC.

US Dollar: December is calling, but CPI gets the final word

The US Dollar (USD) kept its bullish bias well in place for yet another week, extending its march north while revisiting an area last seen 18 months ago. The continuation of the leg higher in the buck has been underpinned by steady bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in Q4, alongside radio silence on the Middle East conflict.