Good morning all, hope you enjoyed your weekend. Markets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action.

Latest News

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Federal Reserve: Inflation data steer policy path – TD Securities

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UK Chancellor Healey: I will build on Reeves' move to recover fiscal discipline

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Brent: Supply risks support prices – Danske Bank

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WTI struggles to hold above $90 despite material supply risks

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British Pound dives to six-month low vs rallying Yen amid bets for faster BoJ rate hikes

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Euro: Tight range with downside bias against US Dollar – ING

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In-Depth Analysis

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.

Canada's 6.4% unemployment rate: Why Friday's jobs print puts the BoC's slack story on trial

2% wages: Why Canada’s weak jobs data strengthens the BoC’s stance

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

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Cryptocurrencies

Hyperliquid Price Forecast: Downside risk looms as momentum stretches thin

Hyperliquid price is trading in the red on Monday, stalling after 10% gains last week. HYPE-focused Exchange Traded Funds recorded their fifth consecutive weekly inflows, projecting steady institutional demand. The technical outlook for HYPE warns of potential downside risk as bullish momentum stretches thin.

Cardano Price Forecast: Strengthening momentum points to cautious upside extension

Cardano trades around $0.222 on Monday after rallying over 15% last week. Mixed derivatives data and mildly bullish on-chain metrics point to cautious market sentiment. Meanwhile, strengthening momentum indicators suggest ADA could see further gains if the recovery continues.

Crypto Overview: Bitcoin faces sell wall at $82,850 – Jupiter, Zcash rally

Bitcoin price tumbles below $80,000 on Monday amid improved odds of a rate hike with the robust US employment data. Institutional demand holds firm with crypto-focused Exchange Traded Funds recording nearly $1.25 billion in inflows last week. Jupiter and Zcash extend gains over the last 24 hours, leading the broader crypto market rally.

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Stocks

Hiking, economy and stocks

Very solid jobs jigure upside beat – already Wednesday I talked with clients that the bar was set too lowe. This figure outdid expectation, and sent Sep rate hike odds to 60%, that‘s less than two thirds by midweek, but still enough to send stocks (and crypto) packing. Packing for good? I‘d examine breadth metrics, and also point to tech leading Friday even though yields pushed higher.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: ECB to hike as Trump pushes for lower US rates

The EUR/USD pair posted a modest comeback after falling in the last week of August, finishing the week just above the 1.1600 level. The US Dollar (USD) lost momentum and corrected lower on Monday, but overall it retained its recently regained strength amid persistent Middle East tensions and speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to raise the benchmark interest rate in September.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations. The USD/JPY pair drops back closer to the August monthly swing low, touched in reaction to a joint US-Japan currency market intervention in late July.

Gold: Fed uncertainty caps the upside

Bitcoin: Gearing up for a sharp move

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $81,000 on Friday, up over 4% so far this week, and awaits a key catalyst that could determine its next directional move. Strong institutional demand is supporting the bullish price action, with spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track to record a third straight week of inflows.

US Dollar: The Dollar had every reason to rally. Why didn't it?

Joy can’t last forever, can it? The US Dollar (USD) rapidly faded its prior gains and resumed its marked downside this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) coming close to its psychological 100.00 barrier, only to see that dream turn to ashes as market chatter reignited speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might hike its policy rate at its next meeting.