Weekly Forecast
The EUR/USD pair maintained its bearish route, edging lower for a fifth consecutive week. The pair traded as low as 1.1161 before trimming some losses, settling on Friday at around 1.1210. Financial markets were once again all about US Dollar (USD) momentum and risk aversion, with government bond yields stealing the limelight while hitting multi-decade highs.
After bearish action seen in the first half of the week, Gold (XAU/USD) staged a recovery to end the week marginally higher. September inflation data from the United States (US) and headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict could drive the precious metal’s action in the near term. Gold struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and ended the day virtually unchanged.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is down over 4% so far this week, trading below $83,000 at the time of writing on Friday as mounting selling pressure threatens to derail the seasonal “Uptober” rally. Profit-taking, a surge in long liquidations and weakening demand from institutional investors are weighing on BTC.
The US Dollar (USD) kept its bullish bias well in place for yet another week, extending its march north while revisiting an area last seen 18 months ago. The continuation of the leg higher in the buck has been underpinned by steady bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in Q4, alongside radio silence on the Middle East conflict.
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In-Depth Analysis
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?
Oil is up by more than a third since the US and Israel went to war with Iran on February 28. Gold is down by about a fifth over the same stretch. The war reaches Gold through the Federal Reserve (Fed) rather than through fear. Every jump in Oil adds to the case for higher US interest rates, and higher rates make a metal that pays nothing more expensive to hold.
![You’re watching pre-market levels wrong [Video]](https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/images/i/Fear-2.png)
