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EUR/USD recovers to 1.0500, as US Dollar retreats ahead of top-tier data
EUR/USD is recovering ground to near 1.0500 in the European session. The pair extends the rebound, as the US Dollar pulls back alongside the bond yields ahead of the top-tier US ADP jobs data and the ISM Services PMI. Mixed EU data fails to have any impact on the major.
GBP/USD extends the rebound above 1.2100, awaits key US data
GBP/USD is building on the recovery gains above 1.2100 in the European session on Wednesday. The extremely oversold RSI on the daily chart combined with a broad US Dollar retreat is aiding the rebound in the pair ahead of the top-tier US economic data releases.
Gold price remains pinned near multi-month low, bearish potential seems intact
Gold price extends its consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a narrow trading band just above a near seven-month low touched the previous day.
Yield Protocol announces closure amid weak demand and regulatory challenges
Yield Protocol announces decision to shutter its operations. The closure of the lending platform comes as a result of weak demand and increased regulatory scrutiny.
ADP Jobs Preview: Three reasons for an upside surprise, which may further lift USD, melt Gold Premium
ADP's private sector jobs report provides a shaky hint toward the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) publication. Nevertheless, it has an impact – providing traders an opportunity.
DEEPER DIVE
Global economic growth is weakening
Global economic growth is weakening and the cycle of interest rate hikes is at or about to peak in the Eurozone and the USA. We consider US government bonds to be attractively valued. In global equity markets, we expect only slight growth with increased volatility.
Surging Oil prices: A new concern for central banks
Surging oil prices have become the new concern for central banks, aggravating the current trilemma: how to balance slowing economies, still too-high inflation and the delayed impact of unprecedented rate hikes.
US government shutdown makes it likely the Fed is finished hiking
The impending government shutdown will be economically disruptive and will restrict the flow of data the Fed will need to see to justify hiking interest rates further.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
Gold awaits high-impact US jobs data for fresh impetus Premium
Gold price is licking its wounds near $1,820, having hit its lowest level in seven months at $1,815 on Tuesday. All eyes now turn toward the high-impact US ADP jobs data and the ISM Services PMI report for a fresh trading impetus in Gold price.
Gold price at the mercy of US Dollar, US Treasury bond yields
Gold price is slightly away from the multi-month troughs, looking to build on the previous rebound, as the US Dollar has entered a phase of bullish consolidation while the US Treasury bond yields sit at a 16-year peak. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields are up 0.90% on the day, trading at 4.85%.
The US Treasury bond yields keep pushing higher on the back of increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver one more rate hike by the year-end, as the US economy remains resilient.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
SEC files opposition to Coinbase motion for lawsuit dismissal, response due on October 24
The US SEC has asked the judge to deny a motion by Coinbase Global to dismiss the regulator's lawsuit. According to the SEC, Coinbase’s reliance on the recent court ruling on Ripple and Terraform Labs is wrong.
Optimism price fails to pick up on whales’ bullishness as short-term traders gain dominance
Optimism price has been in a downtrend since the beginning of August, with no recovery noted recently. Whale addresses in the same duration have seen a significant increase in their OP holdings.
Bitcoin price will likely hit $22,800 before 2024 should it follow its nine-year pattern
While it is true that the crypto market tends to be arbitrary in its movement, the case with Bitcoin is slightly different. The first cryptocurrency in the world happens to have a pattern that has proved true despite the challenges from external factors.
Binance CEO had a vendetta against FTX exchange, new class action lawsuit alleges as SBF faces first court day
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao has been accused of having a vendetta against FTX exchange, according to a new class action lawsuit, filed on October 2.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
S&P 500 Forecast: 4,300 becomes resistance for lagging index
The S&P 500 index lost 0.74% last week, which was the fourth week in a row where the index declined. That performance came despite Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showing that Core inflation was growing at its slowest pace in two years.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: Optimism not enough to take the US Dollar down Premium
The EUR/USD plummeted to 1.0487 on Wednesday, its lowest since early March, as investors continued to seek refugee in the US Dollar. Financial markets were in risk-averse mode following central banks’ monetary policy decisions from earlier this month, as despite holding fire, most policymakers reaffirmed the inflation risks remain high and rates should stay higher for longer to maintain price pressures under control.
GBP/USD: Dollar shows signs of exhaustion but remains the favorite Premium
The GBP/USD experienced a rebound after reaching its lowest level since March, near the 1.2100 area. After a prolonged rally, the US Dollar finally paused, leading to a rebound of the Cable. This move was aided by a retreat in US yields and an improvement in market sentiment.
Gold: Technicals turn bearish ahead of key events Premium
Despite holding resilient in the face of a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook in the previous week, Gold price suffered heavy amid broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength and surging US Treasury bond yields. XAU/USD staged a modest rebound on Friday but ended up losing more than 2% for the week.
Bitcoin: BTC recovery rally could be bull trap in disguise, here’s why
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains unfazed even after the multiple spot BTC ETF delays from the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). But investors need to be careful with the ongoing BTC rally as it could be a trap for early bulls.
Currency market: FX next week
EUR/USD in January 2020 traded 1.2359 and DXY 90.44 or roughly 3300 pips. The EUR/USD Vs DXY distance was to wide for the market to allow further EUR/USD highs and DXY lows. The reversal to EUR/USD shorts and DXY longs began.
The week ahead - US Nonfarm Payrolls, Tesco and Wetherspoon results
Having seen the Federal Reserve leave rates unchanged as expected at their recent September meeting the jury remains out as to whether we will see another rate hike at the next meeting in November.
EDUCATION
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