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Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: EU inflation outpaces US price growth as ECB, Fed meetings loom

The US Dollar (USD) had yet another positive week, appreciating sharply against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair fell for a fourth consecutive week and traded as low as 1.1215, a level last seen in May 2025. As the weekend approaches, the pair hovers around 1.1280 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from an over one-year high.

Gold: Precious metal extends slide but safe-haven flows limit losses

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week under immense bearish pressure but managed to stabilize. Investors will remain focused on the action in global bond markets in the near term. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s technical outlook suggests that sellers are likely to retain control.

France’s 10-year yield hits highest since 2002: This chart shows the market losing faith

Bitcoin: Is BTC setting up for an Uptober rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) extends its gains, trading near $86,000 at the time of writing on Friday after closing September 6.33% up, reversing its seasonal weakness. Historical data suggest October could be a strong month for BTC, especially after a positive September.

US Dollar: Rally faces next test as inflation retakes centre stage

The US Dollar’s (USD) rally remained everything but abated, climbing for the third consecutive week and reaching levels last seen in April 2025. The move higher came on the back of a mixed performance in US Treasury yields, extending their rally in the belly and long end of the curve while losing some momentum at the short end.

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In-Depth Analysis

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.

RBA recap: Rate hikes are on the table as demand stays too strong

Why the RBI is trapped — and why a rate hike could make the Indian Rupee weaker

France’s 10-year yield hits highest since 2002: This chart shows the market losing faith

France’s bond market is sending an increasingly uncomfortable message. The country’s 10-year government bond yield climbed as high as 4.96% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since July 2002 and moving within touching distance of the psychologically important 5% threshold.