Core bonds sold off yesterday with the belly of the curve slightly underperforming in the US while European curves showed more of a bear flattening. Daily changes on the US curve varied between +4.7 bps (2-yr) and +6.4 bps (7-yr).

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In-Depth Analysis

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Prices for the barrel of the American Oil benchmark have fallen sharply as hopes of a US-Iran agreement have resurfaced, but a deeply backwardated Oil curve, tight Cushing stocks and light speculative positioning all warn that the sell-off may have gone too far.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

Where the Pound is headed as war, fiscal cracks and central banks collide

Prediction markets are changing how traders read breaking news

When a major macroeconomic release hits the wires, traders instinctively turn to Treasury yields, the US Dollar (USD), Equity futures or the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge the market's reaction. Increasingly, however, another screen is attracting attention: Prediction markets. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are no longer confined to election betting or niche political forecasts.

AI defies the disinflationary playbook: Why lower oil prices might not be enough to cool core inflation

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Cryptocurrencies

Dogecoin Price Forecast: Bullish divergence, whale accumulation support recovery hopes

Dogecoin shows early signs of a potential recovery, trading near $0.070 at the time of writing as bullish momentum divergence suggests selling pressure may be fading. In addition, whale accumulation and improving derivatives metrics suggest a bullish outlook, hinting at a potential recovery ahead.

Top Altcoins Price Forecast: Ripple hits 20-month low as Cardano and Solana lack momentum

Top altcoins, including Ripple, Cardano, and Solana, are maintaining a bearish tone as the broader market remains risk-averse. XRP is down to a 20-month low, risking a drop below the $1.00 psychological threshold, while ADA and SOL risk losing their recent gains amid a lack of upside momentum.

Ripple and Stellar outlook: Remain under pressure as bearish bias extends

Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure after falling slightly the previous day. XRP gravitates toward the key $1.00 psychological level while XLM slips below the critical support zone. Weakening derivatives metrics for both altcoins cap recovery outlook. Derivatives data shows a bearish bias among traders.

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Stocks

Elliott Wave view: GDX short‑term rally still developing

The short‑term Elliott Wave view in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shows that the cycle from the July 17 low remains in progress as a five‑wave impulsive rally. This structure is not yet complete, which implies further upside before a larger corrective phase develops. Wave 1 advanced to $77.99, followed by a pullback in wave 2 that ended at $72.17.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: US inflation and war doldrums to keep shaping market’s mood

A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Gold: Bullish pressure builds on easing Fed rate hike bets

Bitcoin: Can bulls weather the market uncertainty?

Bitcoin (BTC) remains resilient, trading above $65,000 on Friday, with bulls defending key support despite cautious market sentiment. US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) showed strong inflows through Thursday, pointing to renewed institutional demand.

US Dollar: Sticky inflation, weaker jobs and hopes of peace

The geopolitical landscape has remained the almost exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the global markets this week. Against that backdrop, the US Dollar (USD) has been suffering from rising optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement that would not only end the current crisis but also reopen the Strait of Hormuz.