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In-Depth Analysis

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

2.50%: Why the Kiwi's first hike in three years is a wager on a number nobody can see

The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at 02:00 GMT on Wednesday, its first hike in three years and the moment the bank that cut deeper than any G10 peer last cycle turned to face the other way.

Cryptocurrencies

XRP recovery may stall above support as weak on-chain metrics reinforce bearish outlook

Ripple (XRP) shows subtle signs of recovery above $1.05 on Tuesday, with the move to around $1.07 ending three straight days of losses amid a pressured broader cryptocurrency market.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend sideways trading amid ETF outflows, US-Iran war escalation

Bitcoin hovers around $62,500 amid prevalent sideways trading. Meanwhile, major altcoins such as Ethereum and Ripple are holding above crucial support levels at $1,700 and $1.05, respectively, reflecting ongoing consolidation across the crypto sector.

Curve DAO tests breakout rally as bulls target over 15% upside

Curve DAO price is up 4% on Tuesday, extending its 3% gains from the previous day to emerge as the best-performing altcoin over the last 24 hours. On-chain data shows waning selling pressure as supply available on exchanges declines, while top holders increase their exposure amid rising supply in profit.

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Stocks

S&P 500: Within touching distance of a record high
The S&P 500 is rising for the third day in a row, on course to break its all-time high amid expectations of strong second-quarter corporate earnings from US companies. The stock market is ignoring developments in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the associated increased likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: Market players await fresh clues
The EUR/USD pair finishes an uneventful week unchanged, just a handful of pips above the 1.1400 mark. Financial markets held cautiously throughout the week, trapped between little macroeconomic guidance and tensions in the Middle East. Washington and Tehran reached an agreement, the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), in mid-June.
Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered
Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.
Bitcoin: Strategy sells, the market doesn’t care
Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims $64,000 on Friday, extending a modest recovery while holding firmly above the key technical support zone so far this week. Mixed spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) flows through Thursday reflect cautious institutional positioning. Meanwhile, traders have digested headlines about Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale, highlighting the Crypto King’s resilience and deep liquidity.
US Dollar: Sticky inflation keeps the higher-for-longer story alive
The US Dollar (USD) has traded in a volatile fashion this week, leaving the US Dollar Index (DXY) slightly positive around the 101.00 neighbourhood.