The first month after Kevin Warsh's debut at the FOMC's June meeting has brought mixed signals on the inflation front. On one hand, the re-escalation of the war in Iran has lifted energy prices higher again. Yet on the other hand, Warsh's hawkish comments have already lifted real rates, supported broad USD and tightened financial conditions while realized inflation surprised to the downside in June.

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In-Depth Analysis

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.

2.50%: Why the Kiwi's first hike in three years is a wager on a number nobody can see

Bye, forward guidance: How to trade when central banks choose silence

Here's where the Canadian Dollar is headed next: 4 bearish scenarios and a bullish one

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.

Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the second half hinges on these 4 catalysts

Gold Price Forecast: 3 scenarios that could define the rest of 2026

Cryptocurrencies

XRP consolidates as inflows and volume climb

Ripple (XRP) retains a slightly bullish outlook on Wednesday despite logging a minor correction from the supply range near $1.15. The remittance token is down 0.5% on the day, reflecting a broader cryptocurrency market drawdown, primarily driven by persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC recovery holds as ETF inflows persist

Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly lower around $66,000 on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East escalate further. Still, the Crypto King is up over 2.5% so far this week.

South Korea crypto volumes shrink as retail investors shift to stocks

South Korea’s major crypto exchanges have seen their trading activity fall sharply over the past year as the country’s stock market surged, suggesting retail speculative interest may be shifting toward equities, Cointelegraph analysis shows.

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Stocks

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Elliott Wave signals double correction toward 684 [Video]

The short‑term Elliott Wave view on the Nasdaq 100 ETF shows that the instrument is correcting the cycle from the March 30, 2026 low. The decline from the June 3, 2026 all‑time high continues, with the extreme target zone defined by the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension. This area lies between $646 and $684 and represents the next logical support cluster within the ongoing correction.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: ECB decision unlikely to rescue the Euro

The EUR/USD pair has shown little progress over the last few days, seesawing around the 1.1450 mark throughout the week to finish a handful of pips below the level. Mounting tensions in the Middle East pushed investors into cautious mode despite temporary relief from macro data.

British Pound slips for second straight day as Oil spike revives inflation fears

The Pound Sterling retreats during the North American session, down 0.22% against the Greenback, as geopolitical tensions remained high, triggering a jump in Oil prices and heightening fears of a reacceleration of inflation. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3449 after peaking near 1.3480.

Gold: Bearish pressure builds up as Middle East tensions offset USD weakness

Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the second half hinges on these 4 catalysts

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen over 34% in the first half of this year as the King Crypto failed to capitalize on a good semester for risk assets despite the woes from the Iran war.

Forecasting the coming week: ECB decision, UK inflation, and global PMIs to drive markets

The upcoming week will be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, United Kingdom (UK) inflation and labor market figures, and preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Australian employment, New Zealand inflation and Canadian CPI figures will also attract attention.