AUD/USD is a few pips above 0.7100 at the end of the American session, as US indexes managed to bounce in the final hour of trading. The Dow Jones turned positive after spending the day in the red. Eyes now on the RBNZ decision.
Global stocks traded with a soft tone, favoring the safe-haven gold that reached a fresh two-week high of $1,869.71. The bright metal holds nearby as the American session undergoes, with Wall Street trimming most of its Monday’s gains.
Another double-dose rate hike is on the table for the RBNZ when it meets this Wednesday to decide on its monetary policy at 0200 GMT. The central bank’s outlook on the pace of tightening, however, will be key in determining NZD/USD’s next price direction.
The NZD/USD currency pair, also called the “Kiwi”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one New Zealand dollar (the base currency). Together with the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the NZD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
Along with the Australian Dollar, the NZD has been for many years a traditional vehicle for carry traders, which has made this currency also very sensitive to changes in interest rates.
HISTORIC HIGHS AND LOWS FOR NZD/USD
All-time records: Max : 1.49 on 5/11/1973 - Min: 0.3962 on 16/10/2000
Last 5 years: 0.7737 on 27/04/2015 - Min: 0.65794 on 20/08/2015
Commodities: First of, coal. New Zealand has extensive coal resources: coal accounts for about 10% of New Zealand’s primary energy (excluding transport fuels). Other important commodities are Silver and Iron Ore.
Bonds: GNZGB10 (New Zealand Govt Bond 10 Year) and AGB (debt securities issued by the Australian Government) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year United States Treasury note).
Indices: NZX (New Zealand Exchange), ASX (Australian Securities Exchange) and Nikkei 225 (a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange).
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE NZD/USD
The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the NZD/USD pair are:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the central bank of that country. It was established in 1934 and is constituted under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. The Governor of the Reserve Bank is responsible for New Zealand's currency and operating monetary policy. The Bank's current Governor is Adrian Orr.
New Zealand Government (whose Prime Minister is Jacinda Ardern) and its Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
The US Government (and its President Joe Biden): events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case the New Zealand Dollar.
Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the NZD/USD traders have to keep an eye on:
GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the NZD, while a low reading is negative.
Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.