The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
Another week is coming to an end, and the FX market seems unable to find its way. The EUR/USD pair is poised to finish it little changed around 1.1850, its comfort zone pretty much since September started.
Boris gave, Powell took it away – UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to compromise on the controversial Brexit bill and sent the pound higher before the Federal Reserve boosted the dollar.
Bitcoin staged a healthy recovery this week. The pioneer digital currency price took off from the support area of $10,000 and touched the next psychological line of $11,000.
The yen regained its ascendancy against the dollar rising 1.7% on the week after stalling for most of the month, as Japan installed a new prime minister and the Federal Reserve stretched its zero rate prediction to the end of 2023.
The AUD/USD pair is trading around the 0.7300 level, unchanged for a second consecutive week, despite there were quite a few headlines that could have spurred action. Somehow, the lack of action across the FX board reflects a similar behavior among central bankers.
On the downside, there is lots of traffic that could support the price. The orange trendline has been used on three occasions to great effect. Beyond that, the main consolidation low stands at USD 1915.50 per ounce.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
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|USD/CAD Forecast||GBP/JPY Forecast||NZD/USD Forecast||EUR/JPY Forecast|