Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: Fears will continue to support the dollar

Central banks are cautiously moving toward trimming their massive stimulus programs. Growth-related data suggests a steeper deceleration of economic progress. EUR/USD is technically bearish and could reach fresh 2021 lows.

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GBP/USD: Rate laurels go the the US Federal Reserve

BOE leaves rates, asses purchases unchanged, warns on inflation. Federal Reserve and Chair Powell set the stage for bond taper. US Treasury rates move sharply higher after FOMC meeting. GBP/USD drops below 1.3700 in Friday trading.

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BTC price surges despite threat of crash to $36k

Bitcoin price shows signs of exhaustion as it continues to recover after the recent crash. The majority of the on-chain metrics remain bullish, but the downside threat remains. A failure to hold above $40,000 will likely trigger a move to $36,000.

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USD/JPY: Have US Treasury rates been unleashed?

Federal Reserve delays taper, Powell says necessary conditions met. US Treasury rates rise after Wednesday's FOMC meeting. General elections to be held before November 28. BOJ leaves rates, stimulus programs unchanged.

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AUD/USD: Aussie bears gaining ground

Chinese financial stability is at risk due to Evergrande possible default. Central bankers opened to tapering but are still too cautious to spur directional action. AUD/USD is technically bearish and could retest the year low at 0.7105.

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XAU/USD remains vulnerable amid hawkish Fed outlook

XAU/USD closed the third straight week in the negative territory. Hawkish FOMC policy outlook, rising US T-bond yields weighed on gold. XAU/USD seems to have formed technical support at $1,740 ahead of $1,730. 

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WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast