Forex Forecast Polls
The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
Weekly Forecast
EUR/USD: No rest for the wicked Premium
EUR/USD plummeted to 0.9706 on Friday, its lowest since October 2002, to end the week with sharp losses at around 0.9720. Financial markets were on hold throughout the first half of the week, ahead of first-tier events.
GBP/USD: Oversold but is selling overdone? Premium
Nothing could stop bears in the last week, as GBP/USD booked two straight weeks of decline. The Fed and the BOE decisions underscored the widening policy divergence while geopolitical tensions also played a part in the pair’s over-400-pips weekly loss.
Bitcoin makes a bullish comeback amid regulatory tension, but lacks confirmation
Bitcoin price takes the first step to recovery but needs solid confirmation that will arrive after a flip of the $19,539 level into a support floor. After a successful flip, investors could expect a move up to an intermediate hurdle at $20,737.
The Week Ahead: UK and US Q2 GDP, EU CPI, US PCE, Next and Boohoo results
UK Q2 GDP (final) – 30/09 – Although the UK economy got off to a good start to the year with a 0.8% expansion in Q1, the performance since then has been disappointing, not least because of the surging cost of energy which has added to the costs of business as well as everyday living.
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
Gold: Will sellers continue to ignore oversold conditions? Premium
Gold managed to stay resilient for the majority of the week amidst the volatile market action but suffered heavy losses on Friday. No high-tier data releases in the first half of next week and traders could look for signs pointing to the beginning of a technical correction.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
| EUR/USD Forecast | GBP/USD Forecast | USD/JPY Forecast | AUD/USD Forecast |
| USD/CAD Forecast | GBP/JPY Forecast | NZD/USD Forecast | EUR/JPY Forecast |