Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: European growth under scrutiny after ECB’s decision

EUR/USD: European growth under scrutiny after ECB’s decision Premium

The EUR/USD pair bottomed at 1.0810 on Thursday, its lowest since early August, closing for the third straight week in the red a handful of pips above the level. On the one hand, the US Dollar benefited from a risk-averse environment and upbeat US macroeconomic data. 

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GBP/USD: Pound Sterling appears ‘sell-the-bounce’ trade

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling appears ‘sell-the-bounce’ trade Premium

The Pound Sterling hit two-month lows against the US Dollar, then rebounded. GBP/USD looks to S&P Global PMIs and Bailey’s speeches for fresh trading impetus. Technically, any Pound Sterling upswings could be short-lived as long as the daily RSI stays bearish.

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Bitcoin: Will the “Uptober” rally reach a fresh all-time high?

Bitcoin: Will the “Uptober” rally reach a fresh all-time high?

Bitcoin rallied nearly 8% so far this week until Friday after breaking its resistance barrier, aiming for a fresh ATH. This rise in Bitcoin’s price is supported by an increase in institutional demand, which showcased a $1.86 billion inflows this week, the largest streak of inflows since mid-July.

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Week ahead: Preliminary October PMI figures in sight

Week ahead: Preliminary October PMI figures in sight

In the coming week the calendar seems to be getting lighter. On the monetary front we note the release from China of PBoC’s interest rate decision on Monday’s Asian session, while the highlight is expected to be from Canada, BoC’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

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AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium

The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. 

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Gold: XAU/USD rallies to new record-high as global interest rate environment changes

Gold: XAU/USD rallies to new record-high as global interest rate environment changes Premium

Gold ignored the broad-based US Dollar strength this week and advanced to a new all-time high above $2,700 as investors reacted to growing prospects of a globally lower interest rate environment. Next week’s calendar will feature S&P Global’s preliminary October PMI data.

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WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast