The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
EUR/USD: Central banks in denial about inflation and a new coronavirus variant shaking the FX board Premium
US inflation surged to its highest in three decades, Fed officials becoming concerned. A new coronavirus variant that may evade immune response spurred risk-aversion. EUR/USD is correcting oversold conditions, additional gains are still unclear.
GBP/USD closed the week in the negative territory following Friday's modest rebound. Markets are reassessing BoE's and Fed's rate hike prospects on renewed coronavirus fears. GBP/USD needs to overcome 1.3460 to attract additional buyers.
Bitcoin price looks to be facing a momentary downturn on a short-term time frame while the higher time frame looks indecisive as it consolidates. On-chain metrics show an ambiguous outlook, suggesting the start of accumulation and the potential for an extended drop. Regardless of the technical perspective, BTC adoption seems to be holding up well.
USD/JPY reaches 115.52 on Wednesday, highest since January 2017. US CPI and Personal Spending data drives USD/JPY. USD/JPY plummets on Friday as new COVID variant surfaces. Treasury yields plunge undermining US dollar, US equities sink.
Softening gold prices put additional pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Australia will not change its reopening plans, despite the menace of a new coronavirus variant. AUD/USD is at risk of falling further, despite extremely oversold conditions in the daily chart.
Gold's inverse correlation with US Treasury bond yields stays intact. Risk aversion ahead of the weekend helped the precious metal find demand. Buyers managed to hold XAU/USD above several key SMAs.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
|EUR/USD Forecast||GBP/USD Forecast||USD/JPY Forecast||AUD/USD Forecast|
|USD/CAD Forecast||GBP/JPY Forecast||NZD/USD Forecast||EUR/JPY Forecast|