The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
As expected, the shared currency strength didn’t last long. The EUR/USD pair resumed its decline these last few days, piercing the 1.0800 threshold by the end of the week.
Pound/dollar volatility is at Brexit levels – not as wild as throughout March but still highly elevated. Coronavirus health and economic developments are likely to continue dominating trading, with several US developments set to have their say as well.
Most part of the week Bitcoin has been on the recovery path. Slowly but surely the coin left $6,500 behind and even tested waters above $7,000. However, the buyers failed to develop an upside momentum above the critical resistance and the coin returned to $6,900.
The USD/JPY finished higher on the week, though it remains well below its peaks of mid and late March, as moderate risk aversion still orders markets. From Wednesday’s low of 106.92 the pair rose on Thursday and Friday to the high close at 108.54.
The thrill is gone – AIUD/USD's sugar rush, fueled by monetary and fiscal stimulus, faded out. As COVID-19 continues spreading around the world, the mood soured, and the risk-off sentiment is weighing on the Aussie.
Gold prices are heading into the close with modest weekly losses, with spot gold steady above $1,600 a troy ounce. The commodity eased throughout the first half of the week, amid persistent demand for the greenback and the better performance of equities.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.