The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Lagarde lift the euro again? ECB, coronavirus fears the US consumer all eyed
Ongoing upbeat US figures battled rising coronavirus cases and deaths. More significant US economic indicators, the European Central Bank's meeting, a leaders' summit, US politics – and COVID-statistics are all in the mix in a busy week.
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pullback at critical resistance? Claims, coronavirus, and the US consumer eyed
Optimism from China and the Chancellor has pushed the pair higher, yet US coronavirus and also politics held it back. COVID-19 statistics remain dominant, but the calendar also comes into the spotlight with UK GDP, claims, and inflation, while US figures are centered on the consumer.
Bitcoin attempted a rally in the middle of the week, but the effort was so feeble, that the price couldn't even touch $9,500. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is changing hands at $9,179, mostly unchanged from Friday on the previous week.
Late summer doldrums have hit the currency markets early this year abetted by the indecision over Covid and the improving US economy.
The AUD/USD pair fluctuated in a 70-pip range this week and struggled to make a decisive move in either direction. Despite the upbeat market mood, the AUD struggled to gather strength against the greenback amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Australia and China.
It was the drop in the dollar and mixed sentiment in stocks that sent gold to an 8.6-year high this week. Recently when the coronavirus pandemic situation gets worse then the US dollar gets strong but this seems to be a more localised problem for the US.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
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