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Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Above 0.6300 on Good Friday holiday with eyes on China CPI

AUD/USD remains above 0.6300, despite stepping back from the monthly high of 0.6363 to currently around 0.6330, at the start of Friday’s Asian session. Markets in Australia/US are closed for Good Friday, Chinese markets are up with March month inflation data on the cards.

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY: The greenback ticks down, trades above 108.00 figure

USD/JPY consolidates gains above the 108.00 figure. The level to beat for buyers is the 109.50 resistance. USD/JPY bull trend stays intact as the spot trades above the 108.00 handle and the 50/200 SMAs on the four chart.

USD/JPY News

Why stocks are recovering and where next

The S&P 500 index has recovered around half the losses it suffered due to the coronavirus pandemic. Is bad news priced in? How much credit does the Federal Reserve deserve? Where next for equities?

Read more

Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

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Signatures


AUD/USD, THE “AUSSIE”

The AUD/USD pair, the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). The AUD is a commodity currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields.


AUD/USD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The Australian Dollar is known by its greater exposure to Asian economies. Also, the pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.


FORECAST FOR 2020

FXStreet’s contributors, surveyed at the end of December 2019, expected the AUD/USD Forecast to be at 0.7000 by the end of 2020.

Read the full AUD/USD Price Forecast 2020


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY. This group also includes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY
  • Commodities: Gold, Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year United States Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD

The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the AUD/USD pair are:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government and its President Donald Trump): events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUD/USD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.