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Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggles around 1.17 in aftermath of German elections

EUR/USD is trading around 1.17, struggling to rise amid the close German elections. The safe-haven dollar dropped earlier as the Evergrande crisis eased. US Durable Goods Orders and a speech by the ECB's Lagarde are eyed.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD rises to 1.37 as upbeat mood outweigh petrol crisis

GBP/USD is trading at around 1.37, benefiting from the upbeat market mood and last week's BOE hawkishness. Brexit-related shortages of petrol in the UK hurt sterling earlier. 

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD eyes $1767 critical supply zone

Gold is easing off the higher levels, as the risk-on market environment amid ebbing China Evergrande fears and US stimulus optimism dulls the safe-haven appeal of the bright metal.

Gold News

Huobi to stop servicing Chinese users as China vows strict crackdown on crypto

A few months after the cryptocurrency mining ban in China, the country issued another update last week, reiterating that digital assets are banned and crypto exchanges are prohibited.

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US Durable Goods Orders August: Retail Sales have led the way

The US consumer belied predictions that a slowing economy would cut into Retail Sales in August. Instead of falling 0.8% as forecast, sales jumped 0.7%. Sales outside of the production crippled auto sector were even stronger.

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AUD/USD, THE “AUSSIE”

The AUD/USD pair, the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). The AUD is a commodity currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields.


AUD/USD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The Australian Dollar is known by its greater exposure to Asian economies. Also, the pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.


FORECAST FOR 2021

FXStreet’s contributors, surveyed at the end of December 2020, expected the AUD/USD Forecast to be at 0.7988 by the end of 2021.

Read the full AUD/USD Price Forecast 2021


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY. This group also includes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY
  • Commodities: Gold, Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year United States Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD

The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the AUD/USD pair are:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government (and its President Joe Biden): events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUD/USD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.