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COT NET POSITIONING
BULLISH PERCENTAGE INDEX
THE MOST TRADED CURRENCY PAIR
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: Europe and the United States of America. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
The EUR/USD reached an all time high of 1.87 in July of 1973 and a record low of 0.70 in February 1985.
EUR/USD FORECAST 2019
In her article called “At the starting line of a long and bumpy road” published at the end of the year 2019, Valeria Bednarik talks about the EUR/USD Forecast and explains that "two things dominated the financial world this 2018: political turmoil and fears of slowing economic growth. The first was quite foreseeable with Brexit and Trump´s victory in the US but the second dawned on markets like a cold shower in the second half of the year.
It was not far ago when EU's growth hit record highs, according to Markit, with business activity shrinking to its lowest pace of growth in over four years in December. It was back in March, when the Fed pulled the trigger for the first time, that markets players were rushing into the greenback pricing in a long-lasting cycle of rate hikes amid solid economic developments in the US.
Even the ECB was confident enough to announce the end of QE. But when and why things took such turn to the worst?"
MOST INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR EUR/USD
The organization that most impact has nowadays the EUR/USD is the Federal Reserve of the United States (the central bank of that country). Inside that institution, the Board of Governors (also known as the Federal Reserve Board) is carefully observed. The board meets several times per year and announces the interest rates. If rates remain unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement, and whether the tone is hawkish, or dovish over future developments of inflation. Also particularly significant are the 12 Federal Reserve Banks that make up the Federal Reserve. These Federal District Reserve Districts issue their own statements and research data that give hints about the health of the US economy and might as well influence dollar-related currency pairs. The US Government is as well an institution of great importance for the EUR/USD pair: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it.
Not only American institutions influence the EUR/USD pair, European too of course. And the number one organization is the European Central Bank, whose main objective is to maintain price stability for the Euro. The ECB sets and implements the monetary policy for the Eurozone (including interest rates), conducts foreign exchange operations and takes care of the foreign reserves of the European System of Central Banks.
MOST INFLUENTIAL CURRENCIES FOR EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair can also be impacted by other currencies, in particular GBP, CAD, JPY, CNY, and AUD. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY