GLOBAL BOND MARKETS


Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears have the upper hand near YTD low – Confluence Detector


Technical Overview


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THEMES AFFECTING Bonds



iShares Global Utilities ETF - Daily Chart

iShares US Utilities ETF - Daily Chart

Bonds as related to other asset classes

Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.

Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.

Utilities are part of our Risk-On/Off indicators you can find by clicking here.

Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page.

It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds which are traditionally considered less risky.

The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates, is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.

Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.

US Treasuries explained

If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.

UK Gilts explained

Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some Intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.

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Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis


Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD rebounds, steadies above 1.0400

EUR/USD rebounds, steadies above 1.0400

EUR/USD has staged a rebound and reclaimed 1.0400 during the American trading hours on Friday with the US Dollar Index retreating from the multi-week high it set at above 105.60. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to close the week in negative territory. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD climbs to 1.2050 area, looks to post weekly losses

GBP/USD climbs to 1.2050 area, looks to post weekly losses

GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2050 area after having dropped to 1.1976 earlier in the day. The pair is still down more than 1% on the day with safe-haven flows dominating the financial markets following the disappointing PMI data from the US.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Intraday recovery falters near 200-hour SMA, around 135.70 area

USD/JPY: Intraday recovery falters near 200-hour SMA, around 135.70 area

USD/JPY witnessed selling for the second successive day and dropped closer to the weekly low. The overnight break through an ascending trend-line and 200-hour SMA favours bearish traders. Mixed technical indicators warrant some caution before confirming a near-term top for the pair.

USD/JPY News

Gold rebounds above $1,800 as US yields fall sharply

Gold rebounds above $1,800 as US yields fall sharply

Gold has regained its traction and recovered above $1,800 after having slumped to a multi-month low below $1,790. Following the dismal PMI data from the US, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 6% on the day, fueling XAU/USD's rebound.

Gold News

WTI keeps bounce off $103.70 support confluence

WTI keeps bounce off $103.70 support confluence

WTI pares the biggest daily loss in a week around important support. Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI and failures to cross 21-day EMA favor sellers. Convergence of the 100-day EMA, two-month-old support line restricts further downside.

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