Global Bond Markets


Bonds within the Intermaket Picture

Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset clases. In this section we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.


Bond charts we are looking at


What Now for Long-Term YIELD?

The vertical assault in reaction to the "shocking" Trump election, and after a 35-year Bear Market in YIELD, has propelled YIELD into heavy and consequential resistance between 2.25% and 2.50%, which will require robust economic growth to successfully penetrate and hurdle.

Gilts

Dow Jones Utilities Average - Daily

Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.

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Disconnect between Fed funds rate & Money market rates – Nicole Elliott [Video]

In this segment, Nicole Elliott, Private Investor and Technical Analyst detail the divergence between the Fed funds rate (currently at 0.5%), Treasury bills and interbank lending. Elliott says the yields on the Treasury bills are far lower than the Fed funds rate, while the interbank lending rates are at least 50 bps above the Fed funds rate. She calls this as the failure of the Fed policy. Elliott then goes on to detail the dynamics of overnight offshore Yuan lending rates.


Bonds as related to other asset classes

Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page. It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds which are traditionally considered less risky.

The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates, is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.

Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.

US Treasuries explained

If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.

Gilts explained

Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and a decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.



Sentiment in the bond market

Here below you can find the two most recent arguments in favor of a bullish and a bearish development in the bond market. For a complete list please visit our Sentiment Aggregator.

Bearish for the Bond Markets

Bullish for the Bond Markets


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