GLOBAL BOND MARKETS


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THEMES AFFECTING Bonds



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Bonds as related to other asset classes

Bond prices and yields often drive price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how these movements are analyzed and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.

A bond yield is the return an investor gets on a bond. Contrary to many other assets, bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. When the price of a bond increases, the yield decreases. When the price of a bond decreases, the yield increases. Thus, a so-called rally in the bond market means that yields decreased, while a bond sell-off means that yields increased.

It is important to know the underlying dynamic of why a bond's yield is rising or falling. This movement can be based on interest rate expectations or market sentiment, such as uncertainty, which triggers a ‘flight to safety’ to bonds, traditionally considered less risky compared to stocks.

The change in interest rates, either the target rate or market rates, is important because it makes stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens, prices tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the other until the new relationship is adequately reflected in prices.

Bonds and stocks are in constant competition for investor money, and less so commodities. These, particularly Gold, usually trend in the opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually lead to higher bond prices, and vice versa). Therefore, commodities generally trend in the same direction as interest rates.

US Treasuries

If you trade USD-based or USD-quoted currency pairs, it is crucial to monitor the United States (US) bond market, as movements in Treasury yields impact the US Dollar. Treasury yields’ movements are often driven by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, so staying updated on news coming from US monetary authorities is essential. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), especially in inflationary periods. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and identifying reasons for the cautious stance in bond markets. US stock prices can also rise alongside falling bond prices (rising Treasury yields) during deflationary periods. In such cases, both stock prices and interest rates rise, driving global demand for the US Dollar.

UK Gilts

Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony, but occasionally, a country's bond market may experience sharper movements compared to others. Sometimes this volatility is related to currency fluctuations. The Gilt, the 10-year benchmark in the United Kingdom (UK) fixed-income market, typically has a positive correlation to the Pound Sterling (GBP). A decoupling between these markets can serve as an early alert that an intermarket relationship has shifted. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts. Stripping out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide returns to investors. Otherwise, other bond markets such as US Treasuries, may become attractive. Additionally, a prolonged trend in rising energy prices is a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and therefore the Bank of England's (BOE) monetary policy.

Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis


Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD deflates to three-day lows around 1.1130

EUR/USD deflates to three-day lows around 1.1130

The euro remains under heavy pressure on Friday, with EUR/USD retreating toward the 1.1130 level to hit new three-day troughs. Despite a weaker reading in the U-Mich index in May, the US Dollar found support as inflation expectations ticked higher.

GBP/USD slips back to 1.3250 on USD-buying

GBP/USD slips back to 1.3250 on USD-buying

GBP/USD recedes to the mid-1.3200s on Friday session, as the Greenback regains ground against the broadeer risk-linked universe. Supporting the upside in the US Dollar comes a rise in US consumer inflation expectations, according to the latest data from the U-Mich survey.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Finds temporary support near 145.00

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Finds temporary support near 145.00

USD/JPY gains temporary ground near 145.00 as the US Dollar recoups initial gains. The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year. Investors await the flash US Michigan survey data for May.

Gold looks depressed below $3,200

Gold looks depressed below $3,200

Gold reversed course on Friday, falling sharply below the $3,200 mark after Thursday’s strong rally. The retreat came as a resurgent US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, XAU/USD remained under pressure and is on track to log its biggest weekly loss of the year.

WTI falls to near $61.00, weekly gains capped by global oversupply concerns

WTI falls to near $61.00, weekly gains capped by global oversupply concerns

West Texas Intermediate Oil price continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 61.10 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. However, crude Oil prices are set for a modest weekly gain, supported by renewed optimism over United States-China trade relations, which outweighed ongoing concerns about global oversupply.

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