GLOBAL BOND MARKETS


Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unlikely to regain any significant ground – Commerzbank


Technical Overview


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THEMES AFFECTING Bonds



iShares Global Utilities ETF - Daily Chart

iShares US Utilities ETF - Daily Chart

Bonds as related to other asset classes

Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.

Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.

Utilities are part of our Risk-On/Off indicators you can find by clicking here.

Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page.

It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds which are traditionally considered less risky.

The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates, is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.

Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.

US Treasuries explained

If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.

UK Gilts explained

Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some Intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.

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Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis


Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD loses traction, retreats below 1.0600

EUR/USD loses traction, retreats below 1.0600

EUR/USD lost its recovery momentum and declined below 1.0600 in the American session on Friday, erasing a portion of its daily gains in the process. Nevertheless, the risk-positive market atmosphere after PCE inflation data helps the pair limit its losses.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD turns negative on the day below 1.2200

GBP/USD turns negative on the day below 1.2200

GBP/USD reversed its direction and slumped below 1.2200 in the American session on Friday after rising above 1.2270 earlier in the day. Position readjustments and profit-taking on the last trading day of the quarter seems to be weighing on Pound Sterling.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY discovers support near 148.50 as focus shifts to US PCE inflation

USD/JPY discovers support near 148.50 as focus shifts to US PCE inflation

The USD/JPY pair attracts bids near 148.50 and rebounds strongly in the European session. The asset finds cushion despite hopes of a stealth intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the FX domain to support the Japanese Yen against excessive volatility.

USD/JPY News

Gold reverses direction, drops below $1,860

Gold reverses direction, drops below $1,860

Following a steady rebound toward $1,880 on Friday, Gold price made a sharp U-turn and turned negative on the day near $1,860. Although the 10-year US T-bond yield is down more than 1%, XAU/USD struggles to find demand on the last day of Q3.

Gold News

WTI treads waters near $91.00 with a negative bias, awaits US Core PCE

WTI treads waters near $91.00 with a negative bias, awaits US Core PCE

Crude oil prices struggle to recover from recent losses due to market caution on the Fed’s interest rates trajectory, which impacts economic activities. The higher interest costs raise borrowing costs, which can affect the demand for Crude oil.

Oil News

Interest Rates

Inflation

Signatures