GLOBAL BOND MARKETS


EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1080/90 post-steady ECB


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THEMES AFFECTING Bonds

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Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis


Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD crashes to new 2020 lows amid ECB dovishness, coronavirus fears

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1050, at the lowest since early December. ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from acknowledging the recent economic improvement. Fears of the spread of the coronavirus are weighing on markets.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD pressured toward 1.31 amid risk-off mood

GBP/USD is trading around 1.31, off the highs. Coronavirus headlines are sending traders to the safety of the US dollar. Speculation about the next BOE move is rife.

GBP/USD News

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Set for a dive before the next big bull market

The first initiative comes from WhatsApp. Users of Facebook’s popular instant messaging application will be able to exchange Ether among themselves and other tokens that function over the ERC20 protocol.

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Gold Bears challenge 100-period SMA support on 4-hourly chart

Gold failed to capitalize on the overnight intraday bounce and started retreating from the vicinity of a one-week-old ascending trend-channel support breakpoint.

Gold News

USD/JPY drops to fresh eight-day lows near 109.50

USD/JPY extends losses and trades close to an eight-day low near 109.50 in a relatively risk-off environment, with the media headlines full of the coronavirus as it spreads internationally. Bears can look to the golden ratio around mid-108s.

USD/JPY News

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Dow Jones Utilities Average - Daily Chart

Dow Jones Global Utilities Average - Daily Chart

Bonds as related to other asset classes

Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.

Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.

Utilities are part of our Risk-On/Off indicators you can find by clicking here.

Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page. It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds which are traditionally considered less risky.

The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates, is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.

Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.


Educational material related to the bond markets

US Treasuries explained

If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.

UK Gilts explained

Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some Intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.