AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD bounces back from 0.6650 on firm RBA hawkish bets
AUD/USD recovers sharply from 0.6650 as the RBA is less likely to cut interest rates this year. RBA Hauser didn’t offer any interest rate cues and preferred to remain data-dependent. The US Dollar clings to gains as traders see the Fed following a moderate policy-easing cycle.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The AUD/USD pair rebounds strongly from the key support of 0.6650 in Tuesday’s European session. The Aussie pair discovers strong buying interest on expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue with a restrictive monetary policy stance for the remainder of the year.
Fundamental Overview
On Monday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cited the strong employment data as a surprise for him. On the monetary policy outlook, RBA Hauser didn’t provide a clear direction and said, “The central bank is ready to respond in either direction depending on incoming data.” The comment from Hauser left doors open for further interest rate hikes.
Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has also improved Australia’s economic outlook, given that the nation is the largest trading partner of China. The PBoC reduced its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps), while economists were anticipating a 20-bps rate cut.
However, the near-term appeal of the Australian Dollar (AUD) could be hurt by risk-off market sentiment due to uncertainty over the United States (US) presidential elections that are around the corner. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the European session, exhibiting a sharp decline in investors’ risk appetite.
The US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains near a fresh 11-month high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates gradually in November and December. The Fed can afford to avoid a sizeable interest rate cut in November, as expected earlier, after a slew of upbeat US economic data for September that diminished economic slowdown risks.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD struggles to gain traction, trades near 1.0800
EUR/USD finds it difficult to gather recovery momentum and trades near 1.0800 on Tuesday as the US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere. ECB President Lagarde's cautious remarks about inflation outlook helps the pair limit its losses.
GBP/USD extends slide after failing to reclaim 1.3000
GBP/USD loses its traction and trades in negative territory after failing to stabilize above 1.3000 earlier in the day. The souring market mood doesn't allow the pair to stage a decisive rebound as the market focus remains on geopolitics and central bank speak.
Japanese Yen recovers a bit against USD, any meaningful upside remains elusive
The Japanese Yen continues to be undermined by the uncertainty over the BoJ's rate-hike plans. Rising US bond yields turn out to be another factor that is weighing on the lower-yielding JPY. Intervention fears and a softer risk tone limit losses for the JPY, capping the upside for USD/JPY.
Gold continues uptrend toward $2,750 as Middle East conflict rages on
Gold continues its uptrend and trades near the record-high it set at $2,740 as the conflict in the Middle East remains unabated, while markets assess the changing outlook for global interest rates. Technically, XAU/USD trends higher as a multi-time-frame uptrend extends.
Crude Oil pops over $70.00 despite markets being bearish
Crude Oil struggles to uphold $70.00 for more than day, with more downside expected. Traders expect longer sluggish demand as markets reprice Fed rate cut prospects. The US Dollar Index broke above 103.80 and tested 104.00, primed for more upside.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).