AUDUSD Forecast and News
AUD/USD oscillates at around 0.6680s after FOMC’s decision, ahead of US jobless claims
The AUD/USD finished Wednesday’s session in the green, gaining 0.26%, though well below the day’s highs at 0.6758. As the Asian Pacific session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6683, slightly below its opening price by 0.01%.
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Technical Overview
The AUD/USD jumped to 0.6758 and then dropped all the way back to 0.6680. The pair failed to hold, not only above 0.6725/30, but also to keep 0.6700. The following hours would be critical for the pair. If the slide continues, the bearish pressure could become intense. Ahead of the Asian session, immediate support is seen at 0.6665. A decline below would expose 0.6630, the last defence until last week’s low of 0.6585.
Technical indicators change dramatically following the retreat from above 0.6750. If the pair remains around current levels, it would confirm bearish signs emerging from the 4-hour chart. On the contrary, if the AUD/USD rebounds back above 0.6700, another test of 0.6730 could be seen. A firm break above 0.6730 would clear the way for 0.6770.
Fundamental Overview
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
Big Picture
AUDUSD Bullish Themes
AUDUSD Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD steadies near seven-week high around 1.0850 after post Fed whipsaw
EUR/USD bulls take a breather close to a two-month high, following a five-day uptrend, after Federal Reserve’s (Fed) failure to please US Dollar bulls despite announcing a 0.25% rate hike. The Euro pair seesaws around 1.0860, after a brief run-up to 1.0912, as the latest greenback licked its wounds during the last hour.
GBP/USD erases post-FOMC gains, back below 1.2300
GBP/USD climbed from 1.2240 to 1.2335, reaching the highest level since early February following the FOMC March meeting. Late in the American session, trimmed gains, falling to 1.2250 with the US Dollar recovering some strength following a slide in US stock indices.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidates before Fed’s decision
USD/JPY remains in choppy trading price action, with investors eyeing Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve decision. At the time of typing, the USD/JPY pair exchanges hands at around 132.50s after traveling from a daily low of 132.25 and hitting a high at 133.00.
Gold soars to $1,978 after Fed raises rates as expected Premium
Spot gold jumped to $1,978 during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and then pulled back. A decline in US yields and broad-based Dollar weakness is offering support to the yellow metal, which is up more than 1% on the day.
WTI climbs as the US Dollar weakened on a dovish Fed rate hike
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, rises 0.17% as Thursday’s Asian session begins. On Wednesday, the black gold advanced 0.59% to $68.94 a barrel as New York finished its session. However, WTI is pushing for a second attempt in the week, above the $70.00 a barrel.
Majors
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AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 AUDUSD forecast!
AUDUSD FORECAST 2023
The Australian Dollar is facing headwinds yet again against the US Dollar, as the central bank divergence theme is back in play in early 2023. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to deliver further rate increases than previously expected while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Leading momentum indicators retain their hold in the bearish territory, suggesting that the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain a ‘sell on rallies’ trade in the 2023 year ahead.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR AUDUSD
AUD/USD’s recovery from the last quarter of 2022, fuelled by China’s re-opening-led optimism, seems to have lost traction. Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations combined with renewed geopolitical fears surrounding the United States, Russia and China and the downward pressure on commodities prices could leave the Aussie pair vulnerable in the balance of this year.
About AUDUSD
AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'
The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUDUSD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD
The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).