AUDUSD Forecast and News
AUD/USD scales to near 0.6750 as investors cheer signals of Fed’s policy-tightening pause Premium
The AUD/USD pair has scaled higher to 0.6750 in the early European session. The Aussie asset has been strengthened after the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell delivered cues about pausing the rating-hiking spree after hiking rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00%.
Latest AUD News
Technical Overview
The AUD/USD rose again to the 0.6750 area in less than 24 hours and again, it was rejected, triggering a correction that gained momentum during Thursday’s American session with the pair falling below 0.6700.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair still moving above a key short-term uptrend line but technical indicators have turned south, favoring further slides. If the decline extends, the crucial level is 0.6675, where the 100 and 50-period Simple Moving Averages converge with an uptrend line. A break below would weaken the outlook for the Aussie.
A recovery of the AUD/USD will face resistance at 0.6725 again before the critical 0.6750. A consolidation above the last one should initially point to further gains targeting 0.6770/80, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average emerges.
Support levels: 0.6675 0.6630 0.6590
Resistance levels: 0.6725 0.6755 0.6780
Fundamental Overview
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
Big Picture
AUDUSD Bullish Themes
AUDUSD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD retreats from 1.0900 as DXY recovers modestly
EUR/USD erased daily gains during the American session as Wall Street moved off highs. The deterioration in market sentiment is helping the US Dollar look less weak. As a result, the pair is moving further away from the seven-week high of 1.0929 toward 1.0850.
GBP/USD stabilizes around 1.2300 on BOE day
Following a pullback with the initial reaction to the Bank of England's policy announcements, GBP/USD has regained its traction and climbed above 1.2300. The pair remains on track to post gains for the second straight day as the US Dollar struggles to find demand.
USD/JPY turns positive for the day after US data, holds firm above 131.00
The USD/JPY extended the rebound following the release of US economic data and printed a fresh daily high at 131.65. On Asian hours, the pair bottomed at 130.39, the lowest since February 10.
Gold: XAU/USD hits fresh highs above $2,000 as US yields resume slide Premium
Spot gold rose further during the American session, climbing again above $2,000/oz, despite the modest recovery of the US Dollar. US yields resumed the decline, boosting the yellow metal. The US 10-year yield fell to 3.42%, the lowest since Monday.
WTI bulls approach $70.85 hurdle during four-day winning streak
WTI crude oil buyers keep the reins for the fourth consecutive day as the quote rises to $70.25 during early Thursday. In doing so, the black gold prices seesaw around the one-week top marked the previous day while approaching the key descending resistance line stretched from March 07.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 AUDUSD forecast!
AUDUSD FORECAST 2023
The Australian Dollar is facing headwinds yet again against the US Dollar, as the central bank divergence theme is back in play in early 2023. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to deliver further rate increases than previously expected while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Leading momentum indicators retain their hold in the bearish territory, suggesting that the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain a ‘sell on rallies’ trade in the 2023 year ahead.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR AUDUSD
AUD/USD’s recovery from the last quarter of 2022, fuelled by China’s re-opening-led optimism, seems to have lost traction. Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations combined with renewed geopolitical fears surrounding the United States, Russia and China and the downward pressure on commodities prices could leave the Aussie pair vulnerable in the balance of this year.
About AUDUSD
AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'
The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUDUSD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD
The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).