AUD/USD Forecast and News


AUD/USD off lows, still on the back-foot around mid-0.6900s

The AUD/USD pair quickly recovered around 20 pips from session lows and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily trading range, around mid-0.6900s.

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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Market´s anxiety having no effects on Aussie

The AUD/USD pair is up for a second consecutive week, and it has recovered the 0.6900 threshold, although it couldn’t run beyond it. In the previous two weeks, the pair met sellers in the 0.6970 price zone.

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EUR/USD capped under 1.13 as Lagarde hints at inaction

EUR/USD is trading below 1.13, steady. ECB President Lagarde hinted she will pause in next week's decision while urging leaders to agree on fiscal stimulus. US coronavirus data and Sino-American relations are eyed.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds up around 1.2550 ahead of Sunak's speech

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2550, holding onto its gains. UK Chancellor Sunak is set to lay out the fiscal stimulus plan. Brexit remains deadlocked as Johnson told Merkel that Britain could leave without a deal.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY eases back to 107.50 as S& P 500 futures turn negative

USD/JPY reverses gains to test 107.50 amid souring risk sentiment, with S&P 500 futures back in the red. The coronavirus resurgence and regional lockdowns offset optimism over additional US stimulus talks. 

USD/JPY News

Gold holds steady near multi-year tops, just below $1800 mark

Gold remained confined in a range through the Asian session on Wednesday and consolidated the previous day's strong positive move to fresh multi-year tops.

Gold News

WTI looks for a firm direction below $41.00, EIA inventories eyed

WTI recedes from intraday top while also keeping the bounce off daily low near $40.30. Global pressure on China, coronavirus resurgence keeps a lid on the blackgold. European oil giant follows BP and Shell to cut price forecast. EIA Crude Oil Stocks expected to drop 3.4M versus prior fall of 7.195M.

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About AUD/USD

AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'

The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.


AUD/USD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.

This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD

The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUD/USD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

Philip Lowe

Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS

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ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
  • Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).