AUDUSD Forecast and News


AUD/USD consolidates in a range near multi-week tops, above mid-0.7300s

AUD/USD remained confined in a range through the Asian session on Thursday. Dismal domestic data kept a lid on any meaningful gains for the Australian dollar. The downside remains limited amid the latest optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine.

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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: In limbo but near yearly highs

The AUD/USD pair holds on to modest gains just above 0.7300 as an uneventful week comes to an end. The American currency got no love from market players, as the US is immersed in a chaotic uncertainty. 

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD battles 1.19 after cautious ECB minutes

EUR/USD has stabilized around 1.19 after the ECB meeting minutes pointed to some caution about expanding the bond-buying scheme. Earlier, the dollar weakened after the Fed signaled openness to more QE. The US holiday implies thin volume.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls below 1.3350 amid Brexit concerns

GBP/USD retreats from near 1.3400, undermined by Brexit woes and renewed dollar demand. Doubts arise about Chief EU Negotiator Barnier traveling to London.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY slides to fresh session lows, around 104.25-20 region

USD/JPY witnessed some selling on Thursday amid persistent selling surrounding the greenback. COVID-19 vaccine optimism might cap gains for the safe-haven JPY and help limit the downside. Holiday-thinned liquidity conditions could further hold investors from placing fresh bearish bets.

USD/JPY News

XAU/USD remains supported above $1800 level amid quiet holiday trade

Spot gold (XAU/USD) continues its gradual grind higher for a second day, the precious metal having bounced at support at the psychological $1800 mark on Tuesday, following a hefty sell-off at the start of the week that saw spot prices drop from the high $1800s. 

Gold news

WTI retreats from tops beyond $46.00 per barrel

Prices of the WTI met sellers above the $46.00 mark. Demand concerns re-emerge and weigh on sentiment. The EIA reported US crude supplies dropped by 0.754M last week.

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AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST

How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 AUDUSD forecast!

AUDUSD FORECAST 2020

In our AUDUSD Forecast Price 2020, our AUDUSD Forecast Poll shows a modest bullish bias for the aussie. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 0.6969. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jul 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the AUDUSD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7253 (on 28/01/19), and the minimum, 0.6753 (on 19/08/19)

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EUR/USD

The trade war between the US and China will be one of the most important events to take into account for trading the AUDUSD this year. It’s a well-known fact that when China sneezes, Australia gets a cold. The commodity-producer country depends on its Asian neighbor to keep its economy alive, as most of its exports end up being shipped to China. The more progress in the US-China trade relationship, the bigger the chances of better economic developments in the commodity-linked country.


About AUDUSD

AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'

The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.


AUDUSD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.

This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD

The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

Philip Lowe

Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
  • Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).