AUDUSD Forecast and News


AUD/USD losses traction and plummets to two-week lows around 0.6930s after solid US data

AUD/USD collapsed after US economic data revealed on Friday showed that the labor market remains tight, and it would keep the US Federal Reserve under pressure to bring down inflation to the 2% target. That, alongside the US Dollar paring WEdneadys losses on Thursday, are the reasons for today’s price action. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD exchanges hands at around 0.6970s.

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Technical Overview

The AUD/USD pair daily chart shows that technical indicators ease within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing decline rather than anticipating a bearish continuation. At the same time, the pair is developing above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, which extended its advance above directionless longer ones. The mentioned 20 SMA stands around 0.7000, reinforcing the static support area.

In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension seems limited. The pair is seesawing around a flat 20 SMA, although the longer ones maintain their upward slopes below it. The Momentum indicator eased modestly from its weekly peak but lacks bearish strength, while the RSI turned flat within neutral levels. A relevant near-term support level comes at 0.7030, with a break below favoring additional declines.

Support levels: 0.7070 0.7030 0.6995

Resistance levels: 0.7110 0.7145 0.7190  


Fundamental Overview



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk

The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. 

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Big Picture

AUDUSD Bullish Themes

AUDUSD Bearish Themes

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FXS Signals

Latest AUD Analysis


Latest AUD Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0850 following NFP-inspired selloff

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0850 following NFP-inspired selloff

EUR/USD came under strong bearish pressure and declined below 1.0850 as the US Dollar gathered strength on the impressive January jobs report. With Wall Street's main indexes rebounding from daily lows, however, the pair seems to have found support.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls to 1.2100, looks to post large weekly losses

GBP/USD falls to 1.2100, looks to post large weekly losses

GBP/USD turned south and fell toward 1.2100 after the data from the US revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 517,000 in January. Although the US Dollar Index retreated modestly in the late American session, the pair remains on track to close the week deep in the red.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY jumps to fresh daily high, eyes 130.00 mark on mostly upbeat NFP report

USD/JPY jumps to fresh daily high, eyes 130.00 mark on mostly upbeat NFP report

The USD/JPY pair catches some bids during the early North American session and spikes to a fresh daily top, around the 129.80 region in reaction to the mostly upbeat US employment details.

USD/JPY News

Gold extends slide to fresh mutliweek lows below $1,870

Gold extends slide to fresh mutliweek lows below $1,870

Gold price extended its slide after breaking below $1,900 and touched its lowest level since January 10 below $1,870. With the US January jobs report showing an impressive 517,000 growth in NFP, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield recovered above 3.5%, weighing heavily on XAU/USD.

Gold News

WTI diving in a Wyckoff markdown phase, $73.00 eyed

WTI diving in a Wyckoff markdown phase, $73.00 eyed

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has refreshed its day’s low at $75.80 in the early European session. The oil price is facing the heat as western central banks have hiked their interest rates further to tame soaring inflation. The asset is expected to test Thursday’s low around $75.30.

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Signatures


AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST

How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 AUDUSD forecast!

AUDUSD FORECAST 2022

In the AUDUSD Forecast Price 2022, our AUDUSD Forecast Poll shows a moderately bullish outlook as commodity currencies are bid. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair is 0.7204. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the AUDUSD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7967 (on 24/02/21), and the minimum, 0.6999 (on 03/12/21)

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR AUDUSD

The 2020 post-pandemic recovery seen in the currency pair lost legs in 2021, undermined by the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a pause in the commodity ‘Supercycle’.

A shift in the gear by the RBA and an improving economic performance, however, pose upside risks for the aussie in 2022. Will the recovery be a smooth sail amid looming Chinese concerns?


About AUDUSD

AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'

The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.


AUDUSD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.

This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD

The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

Philip Lowe

Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
  • Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).