AUDUSD Forecast and News
AUD/USD remains confined in a narrow range, flat-lines around mid-0.6600s
The AUD/USD pair lacks any firm intraday direction on Monday and oscillates in a narrow trading band around mid-0.6600s through the mid-European session.
Latest AUD News
The AUD/USD pair lacks any firm intraday direction on Monday and oscillates in a narrow trading band around mid-0.6600s through the mid-European session. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of over a one-week low touched on Friday and seem vulnerable to prolonging last week's rejection slide from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUDUSD Bullish Themes
AUDUSD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
EUR/USD rises toward 1.0800 as USD weakens
EUR/USD has gained traction and advanced toward 1.0800 in the early American session on Monday. The positive opening witnessed in Wall Street makes it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand and helps the pair continue to push higher.
GBP/USD closes in on 1.2300 as mood improves
GBP/USD has preserved its bullish momentum and advanced to the 1.2300 area in the second half of the day on Monday. The risk positive market atmosphere makes it difficult for the US Dollar to stay resilient against its rivals and fuels the pair's daily rally. Eyes on BOE Governor Bailey's speech.
USD/JPY climbs to fresh daily high, around mid-131.00s amid receding safe-haven demand
The USD/JPY pair builds on Friday's goodish recovery from the 129.65 area, or its lowest level since February 03 and gains some follow-through traction on the first day of a new week
Gold recovers above $1,950, stays deep in red
Gold price has managed to stage a modest rebound in the American trading hours and rose above $1,950 from the daily low it set at $1,944. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is still up more than 3% despite having retreated from session highs, not allowing XAU/USD to gain traction.
Crude Oil Futures: Further rebound looks likely
CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, now by around 5.5K contracts. In the same direction, volume rose by nearly 41K contracts after four daily drops in a row.
AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 AUDUSD forecast!
AUDUSD FORECAST 2023
The Australian Dollar is facing headwinds yet again against the US Dollar, as the central bank divergence theme is back in play in early 2023. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to deliver further rate increases than previously expected while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Leading momentum indicators retain their hold in the bearish territory, suggesting that the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain a ‘sell on rallies’ trade in the 2023 year ahead.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR AUDUSD
AUD/USD’s recovery from the last quarter of 2022, fuelled by China’s re-opening-led optimism, seems to have lost traction. Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations combined with renewed geopolitical fears surrounding the United States, Russia and China and the downward pressure on commodities prices could leave the Aussie pair vulnerable in the balance of this year.
AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'
The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD
The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).