AUDUSD Forecast and News


AUD/USD: Move beyond 0.7150 confluence paves the way for further gains

The AUD/USD pair gained strong positive traction on the last day of the week and shot to over a three-week high, around mid-0.7100s during the early North American session.

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Technical Overview

The daily chart for the AUD/USD pair shows that it held within Wednesday’s range. Technical indicators have lost their directional strength around their midlines, while the pair continues to develop above a flat 20 SMA. The longer moving averages maintain modest bearish slopes well above the current level. Overall, it seems bulls are losing conviction, as the 0.7100 level stands for the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7265/0.6828 slump.

The pair is also neutral in the 4-hour chart, hovering around its 20 SMA and between the 100 and 200 SMA, all of them flat. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere within neutral levels. The pair needs to clear the weekly high at 0.7125 to gather upward strength, while bears may take over on a break below 0.7045.

Support levels: 0.7045 0.7000 0.6960

Resistance levels:  0.7130 0.7175 0.7210


Fundamental Overview



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk

The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. 

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Latest AUD Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range but continues to trade above 1.0700 in the early American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index declined to 4.9% in April as expected, making it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand

GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand

GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600 and remains on track to end the week in positive territory. The greenback struggles to attract investors after the data from the US showed that PCE inflation softened in April. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY

USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY

The USD/JPY has witnessed an unreliable rebound after hitting an intraday low of 126.67 in the Asian session. The asset has been trading in a defined range since Tuesday and is expected to continue its volatility contraction amid the unavailability of any significant economic event in today’s session.

USD/JPY News

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850

Gold has lost its traction in the second half of the day on Friday and declined toward the $1,850 area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield staged a modest rebound on the US PCE inflation data, not allowing XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.

Gold News

WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus

WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus

WTI struggles to extend the upside break of the key hurdle, grinds higher around the two-month top during Friday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold seesaws near $113.10 at the latest. Given the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, joining the bullish MACD signals to back WTI’s latest breakout, the commodity prices are likely to extend the run-up.

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AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST

How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 AUDUSD forecast!

AUDUSD FORECAST 2022

In the AUDUSD Forecast Price 2022, our AUDUSD Forecast Poll shows a moderately bullish outlook as commodity currencies are bid. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair is 0.7204. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the AUDUSD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7967 (on 24/02/21), and the minimum, 0.6999 (on 03/12/21)

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR AUDUSD

The 2020 post-pandemic recovery seen in the currency pair lost legs in 2021, undermined by the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a pause in the commodity ‘Supercycle’.

A shift in the gear by the RBA and an improving economic performance, however, pose upside risks for the aussie in 2022. Will the recovery be a smooth sail amid looming Chinese concerns?


About AUDUSD

AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'

The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).

The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.


AUDUSD CORRELATIONS

Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.

This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD

The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
  • Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
  • Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
  • Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

Philip Lowe

Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST

  • Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
  • Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
  • Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
  • Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).