AUDUSD Forecast and News
AUD/USD reattempts 0.7400 on Australian Retail Sales, China Services PMI
AUD/USD is holding steady close to 0.7400 after the Australian Retail Sales matched estimates in June and Chinese Services PMI rose to 54.9. The aussie's further upside appears elusive amid a cautious market mood, courtesy of the mounting covid tensions and China's techlash. US ISM Services PMI, ADP eyed.
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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD bears are on pause but retain control
Fed smashed the greenback but the aussie could not take advantage of it. The RBA will announce its decision on monetary policy on Tuesday. AUD/USD maintains a bearish stance amid concerns about the Australian economy.
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EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1870 ahead of EU Retails Sales data
The selling tone surrounding the US dollar amid falling US Treasury yields keeps EUR/USD on the verge of daily gains. After touching the low of 1.1753, the pair continues to march higher since the beginning of the week.
GBP/USD: Key DMAs test up-moves past 1.3900
GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3920-15 amid the initial Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the cable takes rounds to 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of June–July downturn while keeping the previous day’s rebound from the resistance-turned-support line from June 01.
USD/JPY hits multi-month lows near 109.00 amid risk aversion
USD/JPY continues to decline on Wednesday for the straight second day. The pair extends the losses in the initial Asian trading session on Wednesday. The sluggish movement in the US dollar sponsors the lacklustre performance of the pair.
Gold consolidates in the $1,800-$1,820 range
Gold prices notch higher on Wednesday and refresh daily high near $1816. A combination of factors contributes to the movement of the precious metal in a closing trade range of $20 for the past three sessions.
WTI starts the day off bid despite covid concerns
WTI is in the hands of the bulls for the open in Asia following a down day in European and US markets. Concerns over the spread of Delta variant in the United States and China, the top oil consumers, weighed on prices on Tuesday. Both benchmarks were falling more than 3% at one point.
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AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 AUDUSD forecast!
AUDUSD FORECAST 2021
In the AUDUSD Forecast Price 2021, our AUDUSD Forecast Poll shows a moderately bullish outlook as commodity currencies are bid. By the end of the year 2020, the average outlook for the pair is 0.7684. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the AUDUSD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7625 (on 18/12/20), and the minimum, 0.5725 (on 19/03/20)
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR AUDUSD
Australia may officially be a continent, but being an isolated island nation is one reason it successfully coped with coronavirus. Will Australia’s victory help it lead into the future, or will others catch up? How will relations with China evolve? Will Biden attempt to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement? These are the main questions for AUD/USD traders in 2021.
About AUDUSD
AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'
The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUDUSD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD
The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).