AUDUSD Forecast and News
AUD/USD renews two-month lows near 0.7050
AUD/USD refreshes two-month lows near 0.7050, having stalled its bounce around 0.7075 region. The US dollar appears to have regained poise amid tepid market mood. The focus is now on whether the US dollar gives back some ground ahead of US data, Powell Day 3.
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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUDUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Upbeat data overshadowed by scared central bankers
The AUD/USD pair is trading around the 0.7300 level, unchanged for a second consecutive week, despite there were quite a few headlines that could have spurred action. Somehow, the lack of action across the FX board reflects a similar behavior among central bankers.
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AUDUSD Bullish Themes
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EUR/USD: 23.6% Fib retracement support breached
EUR/USD closed Wednesday below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March to September rally. The pair may challenge resistance levels at 1.1687 to 1.17, before suffering a deeper drop, as suggested by the head-and-shoulders breakdown seen on the daily chart.
GBP/USD indecisive near 200-day SMA support
GBP/USD created a Doji candle at the confluence of the 200- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) on Wednesday. A Doji candle occurs when an asset sees two-way business but ends the day on a flat note. It is considered a sign of indecision.
USD/JPY: This could be the bulls's last dance in the 105, eyes on 103.50s
USD/JPY is stalling at market structure and bears and looking for opportunity to the downside. Bulls might have some upside to go yet, but the air will be getting thinner in those heights.
Gold's potential short-term reprieve if USD pulls back
Gold prices have deteriorated in the US dollar's relentless comeback as investors move away from stocks. The price of the dollar is correlated to gold, so it stands to reason that if the dollar is about to tail off its gains, then gold should find reprieve.
WTI: Oil sellers face rejection below $39.30 for third straight day
WTI fades the drop to sub-$39.30 levels for the third consecutive day. The repeated bear failure may entice buyers and yield a bounce. However, Sept. 18 high remains a level to beat for the bulls.
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Signatures
AUDUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUDUSD move this year? Our experts make an AUDUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 AUDUSD forecast!
AUDUSD FORECAST 2020
In our AUDUSD Forecast Price 2020, our AUDUSD Forecast Poll shows a modest bullish bias for the aussie. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 0.6969. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jul 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the AUDUSD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7253 (on 28/01/19), and the minimum, 0.6753 (on 19/08/19)
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EUR/USD
The trade war between the US and China will be one of the most important events to take into account for trading the AUDUSD this year. It’s a well-known fact that when China sneezes, Australia gets a cold. The commodity-producer country depends on its Asian neighbor to keep its economy alive, as most of its exports end up being shipped to China. The more progress in the US-China trade relationship, the bigger the chances of better economic developments in the commodity-linked country.
About AUDUSD
AUDUSD, The 'Aussie'
The AUDUSD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUDUSD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUDUSD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUDUSD
The AUDUSD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).