AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD under pressure below 0.7150 on dismal Chinese data, RBA's Lowe
AUD/USD remains pressured below 0.7150 after disappointing Chinese activity data. RBA’s Lowe jawbones on the exchange rate value. The market mood remains cautious amid coronavirus concerns, US fiscal impasse and ahead of US-China trade talks.
Latest AUD News
Technical Overview
Fundamental Overview
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Bears remain on the background
The AUD/USD pair hit 0.7242 this week, its highest since February 2019, trimming most gains ahead of the close but still holding in the green weekly basis.
Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trades above 1.18 ahead of US retail sales
EUR/USD is trading above 1.18, off the highs. The dollar advanced along with higher yields, the ongoing fiscal impasse, and upbeat jobless claims. The focus shifts to US retail sales for July.
GBP/USD trades above 1.3050 ahead of more reopening steps
GBP/USD is trading above 1.3050, off the lows. The UK is set to ease some restrictions over the weekend, extending its gradual exit from lockdown. The US dollar is taking a break after gaining and ahead of retail sales.
USD/JPY: A battle of control is underway as 107 hardens-up
USD/JPY bull sin control while holding above 4-HR support. Resistance in the 107 area is capping bullish attempts and failures could trigger a battle for control. A break of support at this juncture would lure in the bears to test a 61.8% Fib and prior key support structure.
Gold trades with modest losses, below $1950 level
Gold traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily range, around the $1945 region.
WTI drops to $42 amid poor Chinese data led risk-aversion
WTI (futures on Nymex) has come under fresh selling pressure and attacks the $42 level, as risk-aversion seeps into the European session and diminishes the demand for the higher-yielding assets such as oil.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the aussie-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 AUD/USD forecast!
2020 FORECAST FOR AUD/USD
In our AUD/USD Price Forecast 2020, our AUD/USD Forecast Poll shows a modest bullish bias for the aussie. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 0.6969. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jul 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the AUD/USD (aussie US dollar) was 0.7253 (on 28/01/19), and the minimum, 0.6753 (on 19/08/19)
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EUR/USD
The trade war between the US and China will be one of the most important events to take into account for trading the AUD/USD this year. It’s a well-known fact that when China sneezes, Australia gets a cold. The commodity-producer country depends on its Asian neighbor to keep its economy alive, as most of its exports end up being shipped to China. The more progress in the US-China trade relationship, the bigger the chances of better economic developments in the commodity-linked country.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUD/USD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
Lowe on RBA'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).