Following an early uptick to two-week highs around 1.3200, GBP/USD now gives away part of that advance and settles around 1.3170 amid a tepid retracement in the Greenback. All eyes remain on the unfolding US-China trade developments.
AUD/USD Forecast and News
Australian Dollar rises as Trump announces less severe tariffs on Chinese imports
The Australian Dollar remains stronger following China’s import-export data released on Monday. China’s Trade Balance came in at $102.64B for March, against the previous $170.51B and expected $77B. The US Dollar is under pressure as weakening economic data and dovish signals from the Fed dampen investor confidence.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The AUD/USD pair is hovering around the 0.6300 level on Monday. Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a mild bullish bias, with the pair trading above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also climbed above the 50 threshold, further supporting the bullish outlook.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could target the psychological resistance at 0.6400, followed by the four-month high at 0.6408.
Immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA at 0.6266, with additional support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6210. A clear break below this level could weaken the short-term bullish structure and expose the pair to further downside toward the 0.5914 area—its lowest since March 2020—and the key psychological level at 0.5900.
Fundamental Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, supported by improved risk sentiment. The AUD/USD pair rose after US President Donald Trump announced less severe tariffs late Sunday on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. Clarifying earlier speculation about exemptions, Trump confirmed these goods would remain subject to the existing 20% tariffs related to fentanyl rather than the previously suggested 145% duties.
Stronger commodity prices provided further support for the Australian Dollar. However, persistent trade tensions between the US and China continue to weigh on the outlook, especially given Australia’s heavy reliance on Chinese demand and exports.
China’s Trade Balance for March, measured in Chinese Yuan (CNY), recorded a substantial increase to CNY 736.72 billion, up sharply from CNY 122 billion in the previous month. In US Dollar (USD) terms, the trade surplus also exceeded expectations, coming in at $102.6 billion—well above the forecast of $77 billion, though lower than the prior $170.51 billion.
The General Administration of Customs of China acknowledged the challenges facing the country’s exports, calling the current external environment “complex and severe.” Despite this, officials expressed confidence, stating that “the sky will not fall.” They reported a solid start to the year, with foreign trade showing growth in both volume and quality. The agency also emphasized China’s commitment to enforcing all measures necessary to counter US actions and to uphold its national sovereignty and security.
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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
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EUR/USD looks sidelined below 1.1400, Dollar on the defensive
EUR/USD now loses some upside traction amid a consolidative range in the area below the key 1.1400 barrier at the beginning of the week, all against the backdrop of a mild pullback in the US Dollar and further repricing of US tariffs.
Japanese Yen retains its positive bias amid worries about escalating US-China trade war
The Japanese Yen continues to attract safe-haven flows amid the escalating US-China trade war. Hopes that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US contribute to the bid tone around the JPY. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations provide an additional boost to the lower-yielding JPY.
Gold retreats from record-high, holds above $3,200
Gold pulls away from the new record-high it set at $3,245 at the weekly opening but manages to hold comfortably above $3,200. Easing concerns over a deepening trade conflict between the US and China seem to be causing XAU/USD to enter a consolidation phase.
WTI trades with negative bias just above mid-$60.00s amid mixed fundamental cues
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's modest gains and attract fresh sellers near the $61.60 area at the start of a new week.
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AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
What would happen to the AUD/USD this year? A brief update from our experts on where the AUD/USD can go in the upcoming months.
AUD/USD FORECAST 2025
The battle between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD) will be one worth watching in 2025, with central banks stealing the limelight. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates at record highs whilst most of its overseas counterparts started the loosening process. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), on the other hand, has trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 100 bps through 2024 and aims to slow the pace of cuts in 2025. The central banks’ imbalance aims for record lows in AUD/USD.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR AUD/USD
Beyond central banks, market players will be attentive to tariffs. The second coming of Donald Trump to the White House anticipates a global Trade War that could fuel inflationary pressures not only in the United States, but also in all major economies.
Given Trump’s personal battle with China, the Australian economy could end up benefiting from fresh commercial interactions with its neighbour giant.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).