AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD clings to recovery gains near 0.6650 ahead of US PCE
AUD/USD is holding its recovery near 0.6650, bracing for the top-tier US PCE inflation data. Continual weakness in China's economy paired with depreciating iron ore prices remains a major contributor to the recent decline in the Aussie.
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AUD/USD Technical Overview
Further losses in the AUD/USD may find first support at the July low of 0.6513 (July 25). From here, the May low of 0.6465 comes next prior to the 2024 bottom of 0.6362 (April 19).
Occasional bullish surges, on the other hand, could face early resistance at the key 200-day SMA of 0.6585, seconded by the temporary 100-day and 55-day SMAs at 0.6606 and 0.6662, respectively, before the July top of 0.6798 (July 8) and the December peak of 0.6871.
Overall, the outlook for AUD/USD should shift to bearish while below the 200-day SMA.
The four-hour figure shows a considerable increase in the negative bias. Against this, immediate support emerges at 0.6513, ahead of 0.6465. On the plus side, the initial obstacle is 0.6610 ahead of the 200-SMA of 0.6675, and 0.6754. The RSI rebounded to around 29.
Fundamental Overview
The AUD/USD continued its significant multi-day decline on Thursday, extending the recent breakdown of the key 200-day SMA (0.6585) and reaching new two-month lows near the 0.6500 level. Furthermore, spot gave away nearly 3 cents since July peaks near 0.6800 the figure (July 11).
The recent pronounced reversal erased its monthly gains due to poor economic prospects from China, declining commodity prices, intermittent US Dollar (USD) strength, and the recent interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).
On the latter, the PBoC's unexpected rate cuts earlier in the week weakened the Chinese yuan, adversely impacting the Aussie dollar because of Australia's economic ties with China and the AUD's use as a liquid proxy for the yuan.
Additionally, persistent weakness in copper and iron ore prices contributed to the AUD's decline, mirroring a broader downturn in the commodity sector.
Regarding monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a hawkish stance at its latest meeting, keeping the official cash rate at 4.35% and showing flexibility for future decisions. Subsequent meeting Minutes indicated officials considered another rate hike to curb inflation but refrained, partly due to concerns about a potential sharp slowdown in the labour market.
All in all, the RBA is expected to be the last G10 central bank to begin cutting interest rates. Indeed, the central bank is not in a hurry to ease policy, anticipating that it will take time for inflation to consistently fall within the 2-3% target range.
Potential easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the medium term, contrasted with the RBA's likely prolonged restrictive stance, could support AUD/USD in the coming months. However, slow momentum in the Chinese economy might hinder a sustained recovery of the Australian dollar as China continues to face post-pandemic challenges, deflation, and insufficient stimulus for a convincing recovery.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
USD/JPY hovers near 154.00, reverses Tokyo CPI-led slide
USD/JPY is consolidating its rebound near 154.00, having reversed the Tokyo CPI data-led slide to 153.40. The pair stays volatile, as the BoJ-Fed policy divergence remains in play while markets reposition ahead of the top-tier US PCE inflation data due later on Friday.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
WTI hovers around $78.00, steadies ahead of US PCE inflation
WTI Oil price holds mild losses, possibly driven by better-than-expected US economic data. The WTI price hovers around $78.00 per barrel during early European hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices are set for a third consecutive week of decline, primarily due to sluggish demand in China, the world's largest crude importer.
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AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).