Cycle Analysis Reports
Featured Market Timing Alerts
The next hits are July 28th then Aug 11th.
With the Sun/Mars conjunction in Leo approaching on July 26, overlapping with three important stock market cycles coming due during its period of influence (as discussed in last week’s webinar), the possibility of a 10% or greater reversal in the stock market is very high.
the coming solar eclipse (August 21st). After that date, the prognosis is not good – especially after Saturn arrives in Capricorn at the December solstice.
[...] we should see a 6/2-5 +/-1 Time & Cycle cluster High. If we see a sharp decline afterwards, then the odds increase 6/2-5 was a major High, but if the decline is mild, we could see higher Highs later in June, before the Flash Crash decline into July.
... I conclude that: The market will be higher in a year, likely by at least 15%; Most of the gains will be recorded by July; Factoring in the fact that 2017 is a year ending in 7, the next correction is likely due between July and October.
[...] fall in market that could be 21 to 29%. July to October could be worst time for politician and politics which may be responsible for this fall.
... Gold could fall to $800-$840 longer-term. The long-term cycle below bottoms in June. June and August are seasonally the 2 most likely months for a gold bottom. We are unlikely to see a sustained rally before then.
Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories
Main Characteristics of Cycles
A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis.. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.
Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.
Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.
Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.
Seasonalities and Periodicities
It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.
Two questions I always receive when people find out that I trade for a living are: Where do you see the markets going? and, Are there any sure fire shortcuts to
All Future’s contracts expire at some point, but not all contracts are deliverable. As well, only long positions in the market are ever delivered against.
The research presented here shows that the high for the day occurs in the first hour 30 per cent of the time, and the low of the day 38 per cent of the time.
In this article I would like to talk about a Seasonal pattern for the futures market that Moore Research has found to be a very reliable Interest rate market strategy.
Other Market Timing Techniques
Ron William was speaker at the International Traders Conference, hosted by FXstreet.com in Barcelona from June 20 to 22, 2012. We share here with you the presentation of his Keynote speech.
Martin Armstrong, once a financial strategist and advisor to over one trillion dollars of asset, developed a computer model based on the number Pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy.
In the first part of the Monthly Webinar (free for all users), Ron William will cover the next topics: * In life and in markets TIMING is everything * The History and Importance of Cycles * Linear vs. Non-Linear cycles * W.D Gann's Law of Vibration...
Today, let's question conventional wisdom when it comes to price, market timing, volume and time itself.
We want an average that is half the length of the cycle so that it will show our peaks and troughs as movements from and to the average itself.
The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).
There are no coincidences. Gann and several generations of traders have used time and price analysis combined with square roots successfully. Some consider Gann to be the Holy Grail of trading. It’s not.
The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.
A Gann angle is a diagonal line that moves at a uniform rate of speed. A trendline is created by connecting bottoms to bottoms in the case of an uptrend and tops to tops in the case of a downtrend.
Gann’s major discovery appears to have been some crucial and practical part of his forecasting method that he called the ‘Law Of Vibration’ and he provided a partial explanation of this Law Of Vibration in his interview.
Gann called the squaring the range with time method his most important discovery, and it is still as valuable today as it was in his era.
Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...
We can now introduce a tool called the Gann Fan to identify potential support and resistance levels as we move in trend from those areas.
In Gann Theory, there are three trends all working on any time frame at all times.
Gann believed that price moved in certain repeatable patterns, based on price and time; you can use the angles of the fan to see areas where prices are likely to turn due to a combination of the two.