Cycle Analysis


Cycle Analysis Reports

Is the bounce over?

Featured Market Timing Alerts

The USDJPY had now secured its support created when Saturn started to retrograde on 2017 April 6th [...] And it is now quite safe for one to Long USDJPY here [...]

The next low [in the S&P500] is projected for the 14th of April.

Coming on 4/25 AC, Mercury will hit 0 Degrees South Latitude, so this should be a low.

If we are going to see a Flash Crash we should see a major swing High about 2 ½ months before we see a sharp 18% decline into the June-July Flash Crash Lows. That means we should top out in April or even as early as today’s 3/30-31 cycle High. You won’t want to miss the upcoming decline. Be forewarned and be prepared.

... I conclude that: The market will be higher in a year, likely by at least 15%; Most of the gains will be recorded by July; Factoring in the fact that 2017 is a year ending in 7, the next correction is likely due between July and October.

... Gold could fall to $800-$840 longer-term. The long-term cycle below bottoms in June. June and August are seasonally the 2 most likely months for a gold bottom. We are unlikely to see a sustained rally before then.

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Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories

Main Characteristics of Cycles

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles provides an indication of time duration of a trend. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.


Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.



Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.


Other Market Timing Techniques

Talking with Martin Armstrong, "The Forecaster"

Martin Armstrong, once a financial strategist and advisor to over one trillion dollars of asset, developed a computer model based on the number Pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy.

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).



Gann

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.

Rediscovering Gann's Law of Vibration

Gann’s major discovery appears to have been some crucial and practical part of his forecasting method that he called the ‘Law Of Vibration’ and he provided a partial explanation of this Law Of Vibration in his interview.

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...


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