Cycle Analysis


Cycle analysis - Timming the market

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.

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Featured Market Timing Alerts

Within years ending in 0, this chart shows us that the market tends to be bearish for the first 50 or so days of the year. [...] Our research also shows that several of the years ending in 0 bringing major highs during the first two to three weeks of the month of January.

The celebratory Jupiter transits will remain in force through December 27 when the Sun conjoins it, trine Uranus. Thus, even with the Capricorn background of these planets, it still creates a feel-good sensation about the future. For now. It could all change early next year when the Sun leaves Jupiter and joins up with Saturn and Pluto in Capricorn, January 10-13. During that time, Uranus will also change directions, which means a lot of trends may also change directions around that time.

We have some strong energy points for Japan this month. Both Japan and the Yen made it onto the Astro radar this month, so something big may be brewing. The Yen looks like it is basing for a low. Yen Key Dates – 1/13, 1/16, 1/24, 1/27

Mars reaches geocentric Sagittarius at the beginning of January 2020 neatly coinciding with Mars’ opposition to Uranus from the heliocentric perspective. This adds further strength to the probability of the DJI turning sharply downward at the beginning of a year [...] It is now 90 years since the Wall Street crash and surprising that no echoes of that event have yet been heard. It may be though, that these will be audible as many planets make their way toward a great meeting in Capricorn in January.

Yet it may be that Neptune is providing a fog and its relationship to Jupiter creating a ‘bubble’ that will pop after the aspect separates in September. We shouldn’t forget that 2019 is 90 years from the Wall Street Crash and that Pluto now opposes the position held then (at the quarter point in 1979, the Dow Jones lost 10%).

I see dramatic changes coming in the emerging market currencies [...] I am just waiting for Saturn to change, which will happen on the 24th of January, because after the 24th of January 2020, the Peso will create history by gaining more than 50% against the Dollar, as well as most of the currencies in 2020.

Our astrological outlook for Dow in 2019 Q4 is a hit on 20378, 24th January, 2020, WITH A STOP LOSS ON @ 27,400

[...]This revolution against top-down autocracy and outdated governments and politics will continue to mushroom for years to come, and the greatest financial crisis of our lives between 2020 and 2023 will only exacerbate it… And next comes top-down management in corporations – like the top CEOs buying back their own stocks into the top of the biggest bubble in history.

We should make a November 14 major swing High+/-2 and start a relative sharp decline into December 2019. Many will be surprised by the intensity of the coming decline.

[...] My 11/30/2018 Chaos Clinic pointed out that the gold Exchange Traded Fund GLD looked like it was going to rally. Now, a year later, it is poised to rally more.

Like many, we see 8-10% correction in 2020-- just a question of when and from what Top. [...] Will markets be still higher Year end? I don't know. We do expect some headwinds midweek. Will they be higher in March? I don't believe so.


Main Characteristics of Cycles

Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility.
Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.


Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...

Other Market Timing Techniques

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).

Gann

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.

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Cycle Analysis Educational Reports


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Editors' picks

AUD/USD: Above 0.6300 on Good Friday holiday with eyes on China CPI

AUD/USD remains above 0.6300, despite stepping back from the monthly high of 0.6363 to currently around 0.6330, at the start of Friday’s Asian session. Markets in Australia/US are closed for Good Friday, Chinese markets are up with March month inflation data on the cards.

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY: The greenback ticks down, trades above 108.00 figure

USD/JPY consolidates gains above the 108.00 figure. The level to beat for buyers is the 109.50 resistance. USD/JPY bull trend stays intact as the spot trades above the 108.00 handle and the 50/200 SMAs on the four chart.

USD/JPY News

Why stocks are recovering and where next

The S&P 500 index has recovered around half the losses it suffered due to the coronavirus pandemic. Is bad news priced in? How much credit does the Federal Reserve deserve? Where next for equities?

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Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

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