Cycle Analysis


Cycle analysis - Timming the market

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.

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Featured Market Timing Alerts

And now we are about to enter the next big cosmic deal of 2020 in the next two weeks. [...] Historically, multiple planetary stations (retrograde and direct) unfolding in the same week (May 10-14) have a remarkably high correlation to major reversals in many financial markets.

The Gold chart looks like Gold is coming to an inflexion point or apex for a wedge or triangle pattern. Whichever way it breaks out, it should be soon, and should generate a substantial move. Key Dates – 5/5, 5/7, 5/11, 5/22

From the astrological perspective it is doubtful that we have seen the bottom of the market.[...] If history repeats, then May 13th should be a red letter day. That this date is sandwiched exactly between first a Saturn station (9th May 11th) and a Jupiter station (15th) would seem to indicate a particularly volatile week for trading.

[...] my thinking is that the week beginning May 11th will be turbulent to say the least – closing the week to the downside.

The S&P500 chart looes like moves 1 and 2 of 7 in a down Chaos Clamshell. [move 3 is therefore down and could start in May]

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 9 major crash Lows in the past 19 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low, 1/20/15 Crash Low and more recently the 12/26/18 crash Low. It is next due in May 2020.

Markets WILL be lower in/by August but can be higher (or not) next 30-60 days. ~ 3000 SPX is a year-end target for some analysts (GS says 2400 first) so we are now watching – our original plan was to begin to protect end (not beginning) of May.[...] Unlike last year, I believe it may be too early to sell but rather better to begin towards the end of May, not the beginning, to slowly protect.

SPX surpassed its 2930 projection by 20 points before reversing and plunging 134 points in the next two days. The index closed near its low on Friday, suggesting that the decline is probably not over, especially since the cycle low is ideally due in the middle of next week. This reversal most likely puts an end to the 763-point bear market rally from mid-March and signals the start of the next phase of the downtrend which started from 3393. It is possible that after additional selling into next week, we could rally into about mid-May before the next reversal.

My best target for the final wave of this first crash is 2,080 on the S&P 500 and 6,190 (the December 2018 low) on the Nasdaq. That forms a flat neckline through that late 2018 low. The left shoulder peaked at the September 2018 top around 8,120. The rebound I am forecasting from a lower low just ahead would peak between around July, and at the latest the election again, at around 8,120 – I am assuming mid-September 2020.


Main Characteristics of Cycles

Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility.
Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.


Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...

Other Market Timing Techniques

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).

Gann

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD trades above 1.18 ahead of US retail sales

EUR/USD is trading above 1.18, off the highs. The dollar advanced along with higher yields, the ongoing fiscal impasse, and upbeat jobless claims. The focus shifts to US retail sales for July. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD trades above 1.3050 ahead of more reopening steps

GBP/USD is trading above 1.3050, off the lows. The UK is set to ease some restrictions over the weekend, extending its gradual exit from lockdown. The US dollar is taking a break after gaining and ahead of retail sales. 

GBP/USD News

Gold trades with modest losses, below $1950 level

Gold traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily range, around the $1945 region.

Gold News

Forex Today: Three reasons for the greenback comeback, all eyes on retail sales

The US dollar has been gaining ground once again as the bond-yield pendulum swings up again. Washington's fiscal impasse, a weak bond auction, upbeat jobless claims, and Sino-American relations will make way for retail sales figures for July. 

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WTI drops to $42 amid poor Chinese data led risk-aversion

WTI (futures on Nymex) has come under fresh selling pressure and attacks the $42 level, as risk-aversion seeps into the European session and diminishes the demand for the higher-yielding assets such as oil.

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US Dollar Index

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