Cycle Analysis


Cycle Analysis Reports

The Fed is Wrong About the Economy

Featured Market Timing Alerts

The 77 TD,136 TD, 316-17 TD/461 CD cycles and 96 weeks/672 CD Cycle are all due end April to early May. 4/30-5/3 Time and Cycle Cluster, should be an important Change in Trend.

Key dates: By 4/30, the market is likely to either make a top and turn down or break out over the all-time high of 2941 and accelerate to the upside. 5/17 is another Planetary Polarity Point, at which time we will be on alert for another possible major change in trend and probable trend reversal.

KEY DATES: Apr 21st- 24th, April 30th, May 5th-8th, May 11th. Markets could reach a high on May 14th.

Probability of Short/Intermediate Term Market Top [-3-10/12%+] by/before April 22: 45%, April 24: 55%, April 30: 69%, May 3: 82%, May 9: 88%+, May 22: 88%+. First tentative Market Short 1/3 circa April 22/23 or the week after and/or ~ SP 2950+

Erik Hadik (insiidetracktrading.com) is again sounding the alarm as he sees the cycles which caused the September-December 2018 decline coming back into playover the next few weeks [of May].

[...] a potential cycle turn very soon in the Euro.

Gold: With seasonal weakness upon us and with unfavorable astro still in force, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and be prepared to buy upon SERIOUS WEEKNESS (TEST OF 1255-58?) OR TIMEWISE JUNE/SUMMER 2019. We plan to stay LONG into H2 2019

[...] this Bear Market[...] could end about April of 2020. If it is more drawn out, it could last into April 2021.

[...] generally speaking, the stock market makes longer-term cycle highs with Jupiter in Sagittarius (November 8, 2018-December 2, 2019), and then the air escapes out of the bubble as Jupiter advances into Capricorn-Aquarius (2020-2021).

Though there is understandably much attention due to be given to both Brexit and to the US mid-terms, uneasy investors might give thought to adding gold, silver and other precious metals and jewels to their investment portfolio. The value of these may well rise in the next 18 months.

[...] after the rally moves into early September or later in 2019, when the crash season strikes… and our most powerful 90-year Bubble Buster Cycle hits most strongly around late 2019. The most likely window for a top would be early September 2019 to early January 2020.

The major US indices are showing early signs of a cyclical turn already. These appear during a very late stage of the expansionary cycle. All in all, the technical macro picture suggests a cyclical turn for US equities.

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Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories

Main Characteristics of Cycles

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis.. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.


Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.



Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.


Other Market Timing Techniques

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).



Gann

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.


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