Cycle Analysis Reports
Featured Market Timing Alerts
We make a 6/21-24 High and start a decline. There are several T&C Clusters in July and August that should be very interesting to watch.
We could get some big whipsaws during the first week of July and then expect a resolution and trend developing 7/5 – 7/8. [d...] Also noteworthy is the 7/16 .
The next New Moon is also a solar eclipse, on July 2nd. [...] suggests a turning point or, perhaps, a stand-off. [...] adding to the mix the lunar eclipse (the next Full Moon), and the planetary configuration surrounding this event, then it’s not hard to conclude that we are in for a period of considerable discontent. [...] July 8th and 9th could see very definite cracks appearing.
Yet it may be that Neptune is providing a fog and its relationship to Jupiter creating a ‘bubble’ that will pop after the aspect separates in September. We shouldn’t forget that 2019 is 90 years from the Wall Street Crash and that Pluto now opposes the position held then (at the quarter point in 1979, the Dow Jones lost 10%).
Key dates: June 28/29, July 2
Erik Hadik (insiidetracktrading.com) is again sounding the alarm as he sees the cycles which caused the September-December 2018 decline coming back into playover the next few weeks [written in May].
The next cosmic shift will then start the first week of July, when the solar eclipse takes place on July 2, followed by Mercury turning retrograde (July 7-August 1). Mixed messages may be the order of the day for most of July, as contradictory reports of progress and impasse are likely to be announced. Heliocentric Mercury will enter Sagittarius July 1-12, a time that highlights more market volatility, especially in precious metals and currencies.
ZD36 is showing a choppy summer sag down into August.
Gold: With seasonal weakness upon us and with unfavorable astro still in force, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and be prepared to buy upon SERIOUS WEEKNESS (TEST OF 1255-58?) OR TIMEWISE JUNE/SUMMER 2019. We plan to stay LONG into H2 2019
[...] this Bear Market[...] could end about April of 2020. If it is more drawn out, it could last into April 2021.
Though there is understandably much attention due to be given to both Brexit and to the US mid-terms, uneasy investors might give thought to adding gold, silver and other precious metals and jewels to their investment portfolio. The value of these may well rise in the next 18 months.
[...] after the rally moves into early September or later in 2019, when the crash season strikes… and our most powerful 90-year Bubble Buster Cycle hits most strongly around late 2019. The most likely window for a top would be early September 2019 to early January 2020.
The major US indices are showing early signs of a cyclical turn already. These appear during a very late stage of the expansionary cycle. All in all, the technical macro picture suggests a cyclical turn for US equities.
Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories
Main Characteristics of Cycles
A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis.. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.
Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.
Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.
Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.
Seasonalities and Periodicities
It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.
Two questions I always receive when people find out that I trade for a living are: Where do you see the markets going? and, Are there any sure fire shortcuts to
All Future’s contracts expire at some point, but not all contracts are deliverable. As well, only long positions in the market are ever delivered against.
The research presented here shows that the high for the day occurs in the first hour 30 per cent of the time, and the low of the day 38 per cent of the time.
In this article I would like to talk about a Seasonal pattern for the futures market that Moore Research has found to be a very reliable Interest rate market strategy.
Other Market Timing Techniques
Ron William was speaker at the International Traders Conference, hosted by FXstreet.com in Barcelona from June 20 to 22, 2012. We share here with you the presentation of his Keynote speech.
Today, let's question conventional wisdom when it comes to price, market timing, volume and time itself.
We want an average that is half the length of the cycle so that it will show our peaks and troughs as movements from and to the average itself.
Martin Armstrong, once a financial strategist and advisor to over one trillion dollars of asset, developed a computer model based on the number Pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy.
The exogenous theory of economic crisis (that the Fed kills it) is ahistorical and colored by hubris. It serves policymakers interest, exaggerating their power. It leaves unaddressed the real threat, self-induced financial excesses.
The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).
In the first part of the Monthly Webinar (free for all users), Ron William will cover the next topics: * In life and in markets TIMING is everything * The History and Importance of Cycles * Linear vs. Non-Linear cycles * W.D Gann's Law of Vibration...
James Smithson concludes that Gann’s forecasting method can be applied to the currency markets today. However, in order to identify the underlying cycles driving a particular currency it is necessary to analyse the price history of that currency measured in New Zealand dollars.
Gann called the squaring the range with time method his most important discovery, and it is still as valuable today as it was in his era.
There are no coincidences. Gann and several generations of traders have used time and price analysis combined with square roots successfully. Some consider Gann to be the Holy Grail of trading. It’s not.
A Gann angle is a diagonal line that moves at a uniform rate of speed. A trendline is created by connecting bottoms to bottoms in the case of an uptrend and tops to tops in the case of a downtrend.
Gann’s major discovery appears to have been some crucial and practical part of his forecasting method that he called the ‘Law Of Vibration’ and he provided a partial explanation of this Law Of Vibration in his interview.
Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...
The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.
We can now introduce a tool called the Gann Fan to identify potential support and resistance levels as we move in trend from those areas.
In Gann Theory, there are three trends all working on any time frame at all times.
Gann believed that price moved in certain repeatable patterns, based on price and time; you can use the angles of the fan to see areas where prices are likely to turn due to a combination of the two.