Cycle Analysis


Cycle Analysis Reports

Long Term Outlook for S&P

Featured Market Timing Alerts

[...] S&P holding up into about the 20th of December. At that time two things happen. The Fed meets December 18-19th to discuss raising interest rates. And the fall equinox falls on the 21st. Following that time point, the 36 day ZGO drops sharply into the New Year.

12/10 should be another swing Low and we start another sharp rally into XXX swing High and see another decline afterwards.

KEY DATES: November 30, December 19, 21

Note we do not plan to short aggressively before early 2019 (Late January or December 2018 potentially & May definitely)

[...] this Bear Market[...] could end about April of 2020. If it is more drawn out, it could last into April 2021.

[...] generally speaking, the stock market makes longer-term cycle highs with Jupiter in Sagittarius (November 8, 2018-December 2, 2019), and then the air escapes out of the bubble as Jupiter advances into Capricorn-Aquarius (2020-2021).

Key Dates – 12/4, 12/10, 12/11, 12/18, 12/20-21, 12/24 Composite Bank of England/US Fed Key Dates - 12/3, 12/4, 12/11, 12/19, 12/26

Though there is understandably much attention due to be given to both Brexit and to the US mid-terms, uneasy investors might give thought to adding gold, silver and other precious metals and jewels to their investment portfolio. The value of these may well rise in the next 18 months.

The major US indices are showing early signs of a cyclical turn already. These appear during a very late stage of the expansionary cycle. All in all, the technical macro picture suggests a cyclical turn for US equities.

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Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories

Main Characteristics of Cycles

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis.. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.


Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.



Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.


Other Market Timing Techniques

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).



Gann

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...


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