Cycle Analysis


Cycle Analysis Reports

Decline could run into January

Featured Market Timing Alerts

October 5-November 16. This is a time when people change their minds and central banks often change their monetary (interest rate) policies. Expect some surprises here in the next six weeks, maybe even this week as Venus squares Mars on October 10 and the Sun squares Pluto on October 11. Perhaps more important, heliocentric Mercury will enter Sagittarius, October 10-20. This signature often correlates to heightened volatility in currency and precious metals prices. Don’t be surprised if bitcoin starts to break out of its congestion zone.

[...] it is true that the Dow Jones has now returned to the levels it held before the lunar eclipse back in January 2018. This though I think is a false dawn: [...] Though drama on the markets might not be apparent until the following Monday, I’m reasonably confident October 5th will be a day of high drama [...] Christeen Skinner

Advise trailing profit stops next week [Oct 1-5] on Regardless of any "October surprise" markets will be up Nov/Dec If BIG dip before US Midterms BUY!!

On Sep 18, Mars formed its third and final passage of a square aspect to Uranus, a Level 1 (strongest rating) aspect, with a 77% correlation to primary cycles within an orb of 13 trading days. This time band for a primary cycle is in force until October 5. On Tuesday, Sep 25, the Sun will square Saturn, another Level 1 signature with a 69% correlation to primary cycles within 11 trading days. Following this will be Venus turning retrograde on Oct 5, an even more impressive Level 1 signature than the other two, with a 78% correlation to primary cycles within 12 trading days. The time bands for all three overlap September 25-October 5.

Monday [Sep 24] was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. Which places stocks 3 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing high this late in the daily cycle signals that stocks are beginning their daily cycle decline.

S&P500- choppy period expeted until Sep 24 secondary cycle high; Dow Jones Industrials- Sep 28 secondary cycle high (downward movement until Oct 29); VIX- Sep 11 secondary cycle low (positive movement expected until Nov 2); FTSE- Sep 4 secondary cycle high (downward movement expected until Nov 2); Nikkei- Oct 5 secondary cycle high (downward move expected until Nov 6)

Though there is understandably much attention due to be given to both Brexit and to the US mid-terms, uneasy investors might give thought to adding gold, silver and other precious metals and jewels to their investment portfolio. The value of these may well rise in the next 18 months.

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Recent Lessons about Cycle Theories

Main Characteristics of Cycles

A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis.. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.


Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing. Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility. Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator. Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.

Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.

Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.



Seasonalities and Periodicities

Best hours for trading: make sure you don't miss the opportunity!

It is in general agreed that the time period between 12 pm GMT and 3 pm GMT are the most active times for traders who seek to capitalize from the largest movements in the market. The New York markets open at around 12 GMT, and trading in London closes at 3 pm, so the time period in between sees the largest amount of liquidity reaching the markets.


Other Market Timing Techniques

Cycle Indicator

The key is to locate the beginning phases of each cycle, so you can take advantage of the information obtained from the study of the distributions. One of the existing methods to locate those phases would be the study of the price ROC (Rate of Change).



Gann

Revolutionary War Cycles

The next war is likely to start in Libya and Syria (Note this article as written in 2011). The current depression began in 2007 and will continue to 2020. [...] The United Kingdom and China will be badly affected. [...] The country that will do the best out of this mess will be India.

The Gann Angles

Gann was fascinated by the relation of time (T) and price (P). Gann drew his angles from all significant price pivot point highs and lows. He used just one pivot point to draw an angle that rose (or fell) at predetermined and fixed rates of speed, as follows:...


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