USD/JPY Forecast and News


Japanese Yen stands firm near weekly top against weaker USD; seems poised to climb further

The Japanese Yen prolongs its uptrend against a broadly weaker US Dollar for the third successive day and sticks to gains near the weekly top through the early European session on Wednesday. Minutes of the Bank of Japan's October meeting showed that board members debated the need to continue raising interest rates.

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USD/JPY Technical Overview

The USD/JPY pair has now reversed the post-BoJ strong move up back closer to the November swing high. Moreover, the weekly downtrend from the vicinity of the 158.00 mark constitutes the formation of a bearish double-top pattern and validates the negative outlook for spot prices.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below the Signal line just under the zero mark, while a slightly deeper negative histogram hints at building bearish momentum. The RSI stands at 50 (neutral) after easing from recent highs, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance.

This, in turn, suggests that the USD/JPY pair's downfall could stall near the 155.00 psychological mark. This is followed by the 154.55-154.50 horizontal zone, which should act as the neckline support of the bearish pattern. A convincing break below will be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.


Fundamental Overview

Geopolitical uncertainties stemming from rising US-Venezuela tensions, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, and the risk of a renewed Israel-Iran conflict contribute to safe-haven JPY's outperformance.

Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish outlook marks a significant divergence in comparison to bets for further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The latter drags the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since early October and also benefits the lower-yielding JPY. However, the upbeat market mood acts as a headwind for the JPY and assists the USD/JPY pair to find support ahead of mid-155.00s. The fundamental backdrop, however, favors the JPY bulls and warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.

Japanese Yen is underpinned by hawkish BoJ, sustained safe-haven buying

Minutes of the Bank of Japan's October meeting, released earlier this Wednesday, showed that board members agreed that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if economic price forecasts materialize. At the subsequent meeting in December, the central bank raised the policy rate to 0.75%, or a 30-year high, and left the door open to further tightening.

Moreover, tensions linked to the United States' actions against vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, along with Russia's escalation of attacks on Ukraine and a potential new Israel-Iran war, underpin the safe-haven Japanese Yen for the third consecutive day. Apart from this, the prevalent US Dollar selling bias drags the USD/JPY pair to a fresh weekly low on Wednesday.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, has declined to a fresh low since early October amid rising bets for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Moreover, US President Donald Trump declared that the candidate for the role of the Fed Chair must commit to lowering rates even when the economy is performing well.

This overshadows Tuesday's upbeat US GDP growth figures, which showed that the economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace during the July–September period. The reading was stronger than consensus estimates and the 3.8% rise recorded in the previous quarter, though it does little to provide any respite to the USD bulls or help ease the prevalent selling bias.

Separately, the US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders declined 2.2% in October, following the 0.7% increase recorded in the previous month and worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 1.5%. Furthermore, a sharp fall in consumer confidence in December suggested that households are becoming much more cautious about the future.

Traders now look forward to Wednesday's release of the US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to Friday's release of the Tokyo CPI report, which could play a key role in driving the JPY demand in the near term.



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Editors' picks

Gold retreats from record highs amid profit-taking on Christmas Eve

Gold retreats from record highs amid profit-taking on Christmas Eve

Gold retreats following the move higher to the $4,525 area, or a fresh all-time peak, though the downside remains limited amid a bullish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

EUR/USD off three-month highs, holds near 1.1800 on softer US Dollar

EUR/USD off three-month highs, holds near 1.1800 on softer US Dollar

EUR/USD consolidates gains below 1.1800 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. A broadly subdued US Dollar continues to underpin the pair amid quiet markets and thin liquidity conditions on Christmas Eve. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 in the European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders turn to sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Shiba Inu's bears tighten grip, aiming for yearly lows

Shiba Inu's bears tighten grip, aiming for yearly lows

Shiba Inu price remains under pressure, trading below $0.000070 on Wednesday as bearish momentum continues to dominate the broader crypto market. On-chain and derivatives data further support the bearish sentiment, while technical analysis suggests a deeper correction targeting the yearly lows.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

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USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST

How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.

USD/JPY FORECAST 2025

In the USD/JPY 2025 Forecast , FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam indicates that USD/JPY is likely to start the year bearish due to fears of trade wars, Donald Trump's entry into the White House and expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, a bullish turnaround is anticipated in the following months as Trump's trade deals stabilize global markets, weakening the safe-haven Yen. Further gains are expected in the latter half of the year, driven by a more hawkish Fed and disappointment in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inaction on rate hikes.

From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. On the downside, support lies at 147.54, 139.73, and further down at 136.72 and 127.15.

Read the full 2025 forecast.

MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/JPY

The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.

In Japan, political uncertainty looms, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lacks a parliamentary majority and may call fresh elections. An LDP victory could strengthen the Yen by ensuring stability, while opposition gains might lead to fiscal expansion and weaken the currency. If no elections occur, a modest budget would likely keep the Yen supported.

In terms of monetary policy, the Fed and BoJ are set to diverge in monetary policy. The Fed expects to deliver only two additional rate cuts in 2025, the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish stance, avoiding rate hikes amid weak inflation and a shrinking economy, leaving the Yen vulnerable to market disappointment over policy inaction.


Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan. Established under the Bank of Japan Act in 1882, it is a juridical entity and neither a government agency nor a private corporation. The BoJ sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

Policy Board: The Policy Board is the bank's highest decision-making body. It determines the guidelines for currency and monetary control, sets the basic principles for carrying out the bank's operations and oversees the performance of the bank's officers, excluding auditors and counselors.

History: The Bank of Japan was established under the Bank of Japan Act, promulgated in June 1882, and began operating as the nation's central bank on October 10, 1882. It was reorganized in 1942 under the Bank of Japan Act of 1942, which reflected the wartime context. The Act of 1942 was amended several times after World War II, and the establishment of the Policy Board as the bank's highest decision-making body occurred in June 1949. In June 1997, the Act of 1942 was revised completely under the principles of independence and transparency. The revised Act came into effect on April 1, 1998.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Kazuo Ueda

Kazuo Ueda was born in Makinohara, Japan, on September 20, 1951. He is the 32nd and current Governor of the BoJ. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a Bachelor of Science and Mathematics and received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

He is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and also worked as a professor at Kyoritsu Women's University. In February 2023, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated Ueda as the governor of the BoJ. He is widely regarded as an expert on monetary policy but was considered a surprise appointment by analysts. He wasn’t even considered a dark-horse candidate, as the BoJ governor role has traditionally gone to long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrats or central bank officials. Ueda is the first academic economist to lead the BoJ in the post-World War II era.

BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


About USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.

Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.

The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.

The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.