USD/JPY Forecast and News


USD/JPY recovers to 156.00 as US Dollar bounces back

USD/JPY rebounds sharply to 156.00 amid a firm recovery in the US Dollar. Fed officials one good inflation data as incapable for unwinding the restrictive policy stance. Japan’s weak GDP deepens fears of BoJ’s limited scope for policy-tightening.

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USD/JPY Technical Overview

The USD/JPY pair extends its recovery to 156.00 in Friday’s European session. The asset strengthens as the US Dollar rebounds strongly after the Federal Reserve (Fed) ruled out expectations of rate cuts despite an expected decline in the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.


Fundamental Overview

On Thursday, the communication from Fed policymakers suggested that one-time decline in the consumer price inflation in sufficient to indicate a change in the overall trend. New York Fed Bank President John Williams said he doesn’t see any economic indicator suggesting the need to change the stance of monetary policy now. When asked about the inflation outlook, Williams said, “In the very near term, I don't expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal," Reuters reported.

The situation of restrictive interest rate stance by the Fed for a longer period is favorable for the US Dollar and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rise to 104.70. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.39%.

Meanwhile, the speculation for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting remains firm. The CME FedWacth tool shows that the probability of interest rates declining from the current levels in September is 68%, which has come down from 73% recorded after the release of the soft inflation data.

On the Japan front, weak Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has prompted fresh challenges for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) with their agenda of tightening monetary policy further. The Japanese economy contracted at a higher pace of 0.5% from the estimates of 0.4%.



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Editors' picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0850 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0850 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades in negative territory at around 1.0850 after closing modestly lower on Thursday. In the absence of macroeconomic data releases, investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds above 1.2650 following earlier decline

GBP/USD holds above 1.2650 following earlier decline

GBP/USD edges higher after falling to a daily low below 1.2650 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the selloff seen after April inflation data and makes it difficult for the pair to extend its rebound. Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak later in the day.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY recovers to 156.00 as US Dollar bounces back

USD/JPY recovers to 156.00 as US Dollar bounces back

USD/JPY rebounds sharply to 156.00 amid a firm recovery in the US Dollar. Fed officials one good inflation data as incapable for unwinding the restrictive policy stance. Japan’s weak GDP deepens fears of BoJ’s limited scope for policy-tightening.

USD/JPY News

Gold climbs to multi-week highs above $2,400

Gold climbs to multi-week highs above $2,400

Gold gathered bullish momentum and touched its highest level in nearly a month above $2,400. Although the benchmark 10-year US yield holds steady at around 4.4%, the cautious market stance supports XAU/USD heading into the weekend.

Gold News

WTI trades sideways around $79.00 with eyes on PBoC policy decision

WTI trades sideways around $79.00 with eyes on PBoC policy decision

WTI trades inside Thursday’s trading range ahead of PBoC’s interest rate decision. The oil demand outlook has improved as US inflation softens as expected in April. Fed policymakers see a one-time decline in inflation as insufficient to roll back restrictive policy stance.

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USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST

How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.

USD/JPY FORECAST 2024

The Japanese Yen could receive support from the BoJ if it indicates a shift toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, potentially through a rate hike that would mark the end of seven years of negative rates. Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Hino offered some comments about it in December. Rumors and speculations in that direction would trigger momentum for the Yen. Read more details about the forecast.

The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan led the pair to test the multi-decade high near 152.00.

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR USD/JPY

There is a possibility that the BoJ might end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) by raising the key rate to 0.00% in 2024. Some analysts anticipate the eventual end of YCC by January, while others believe it is more likely to occur during the second quarter. A significant challenge for the BoJ is to exit from NIRP without disrupting the economy.

Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized that any move will be carefully calculated, and the central bank will likely prepare the market for a change. This scenario is more likely to materialize if inflation in Japan remains above 3%.


Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Kazuo Ueda

Kazuo Ueda is the 32nd and current Governor of the Bank of Japan. He is a professor and the dean of the business department at Kyoritsu Women's University in Tokyo and the external director at JGC Holdings Corp, an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. He was not even considered a dark-horse candidate. Ueda wasn’t really on their radar because the BOJ governor job has traditionally been assumed by a long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrat or central bank official.  

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About USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.