USD/JPY Forecast and News


USD/JPY plunges to near 155.80 amid fragile US Dollar, Japan’s intervention call

USD/JPY plummets to near 155.80 as the US Dollar outperforms across the board. The Fed is expected to deliver at least two interest rate cuts in 2026. Japan’s FM Katayama warns against one-sided, excessive moves against the Yen.

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USD/JPY Technical Overview

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.75% lower to near 155.80 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair faces severe selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate cuts in 2026 than it had signaled in the monetary policy announcement on December 17.


Fundamental Overview

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits an over 11-week low near 97.85.

The CME FedWatch tool shows there is a 73.8% chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates at least 50 bps next year. This is contrary to what the Fed’s dot plot showed last week. As per the dot plot, policymakers collectively see the Federal Fund Rate dropping to 3.4% from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%, suggesting there will be only one interest rate cut in 2026.

Fed dovish expectations have been intensified due to weak job market conditions and signs from a slew of previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports that there was a limited impact of tariffs on inflation.

Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the flash Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues on the current economic health.

Meanwhile, the outperformance from the Japanese Yen (JPY), following warnings of Japan’s intervention by Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama to support the currency against one-sided excessive moves, has weighed heavily on the pair.

Earlier in the day, FM Satsuki Katayama said, “Japan has a free hand in dealing with excessive moves in the Yen.” She added that the administration will take “appropriate action against excessive moves”.



FXS Signals

Latest Japanese Yen Analysis


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Editors' picks

Gold to challenge fresh record highs

Gold to challenge fresh record highs

Gold prices soared to $4,497 early on Monday, as persistent US Dollar weakness and thinned holiday trading exacerbated the bullish run. The bright metal eases following the release of an upbeat US Q3 GDP reading, as USD finds near-term demand in the American session.

EUR/USD eases from around 1.1800 after US GDP figures

EUR/USD eases from around 1.1800 after US GDP figures

The US Dollar is finding some near-term demand after the release of the US Q3 GDP. According to the report, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three months to September, well above the 3.3% forecast by market analysts.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD retreats from session highs and trades slightly below 1.3500 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar stages a rebound following the better-than-expected Q3 growth data, limiting the pair's upside ahead of the Christmas break.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP decline as risk-off sentiment escalates

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP decline as risk-off sentiment escalates

Bitcoin remains under pressure, trading above the $87,000 support at the time of writing on Tuesday. Selling pressure has continued to weigh on the broader cryptocurrency market since Monday, triggering declines across altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST

How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.

USD/JPY FORECAST 2025

In the USD/JPY 2025 Forecast , FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam indicates that USD/JPY is likely to start the year bearish due to fears of trade wars, Donald Trump's entry into the White House and expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, a bullish turnaround is anticipated in the following months as Trump's trade deals stabilize global markets, weakening the safe-haven Yen. Further gains are expected in the latter half of the year, driven by a more hawkish Fed and disappointment in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inaction on rate hikes.

From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. On the downside, support lies at 147.54, 139.73, and further down at 136.72 and 127.15.

Read the full 2025 forecast.

MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/JPY

The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.

In Japan, political uncertainty looms, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lacks a parliamentary majority and may call fresh elections. An LDP victory could strengthen the Yen by ensuring stability, while opposition gains might lead to fiscal expansion and weaken the currency. If no elections occur, a modest budget would likely keep the Yen supported.

In terms of monetary policy, the Fed and BoJ are set to diverge in monetary policy. The Fed expects to deliver only two additional rate cuts in 2025, the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish stance, avoiding rate hikes amid weak inflation and a shrinking economy, leaving the Yen vulnerable to market disappointment over policy inaction.


Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan. Established under the Bank of Japan Act in 1882, it is a juridical entity and neither a government agency nor a private corporation. The BoJ sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

Policy Board: The Policy Board is the bank's highest decision-making body. It determines the guidelines for currency and monetary control, sets the basic principles for carrying out the bank's operations and oversees the performance of the bank's officers, excluding auditors and counselors.

History: The Bank of Japan was established under the Bank of Japan Act, promulgated in June 1882, and began operating as the nation's central bank on October 10, 1882. It was reorganized in 1942 under the Bank of Japan Act of 1942, which reflected the wartime context. The Act of 1942 was amended several times after World War II, and the establishment of the Policy Board as the bank's highest decision-making body occurred in June 1949. In June 1997, the Act of 1942 was revised completely under the principles of independence and transparency. The revised Act came into effect on April 1, 1998.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Kazuo Ueda

Kazuo Ueda was born in Makinohara, Japan, on September 20, 1951. He is the 32nd and current Governor of the BoJ. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a Bachelor of Science and Mathematics and received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

He is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and also worked as a professor at Kyoritsu Women's University. In February 2023, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated Ueda as the governor of the BoJ. He is widely regarded as an expert on monetary policy but was considered a surprise appointment by analysts. He wasn’t even considered a dark-horse candidate, as the BoJ governor role has traditionally gone to long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrats or central bank officials. Ueda is the first academic economist to lead the BoJ in the post-World War II era.

BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


About USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.

Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.

The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.

The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.