USDJPY Forecast and News


USD/JPY: Bears in control as fears prevail

The BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged but downgraded growth and inflation forecasts. The focus now shifts to US Q3 Gross Domestic Product that is seen posting a record bounce. USD/JPY is technically bearish and about to break below September monthly low.

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Technical Overview.

The USD/JPY pair is pressuring the weekly low, retaining its bearish bias in the near-term. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA is accelerating its decline near the mentioned weekly low and well below the larger ones, which also head south. Technical indicators maintain their downward slopes within negative levels, approaching oversold readings. The pair needs to clear 103.99, September low, to extend its slide further during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 103.95 103.50 103.20

Resistance levels: 104.45 104.70 105.10


Fundamental Overview

The risk-off mood persists across the FX board, although major pairs are less volatile than on Wednesday, waiting for first-tier events. The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 104.00 figure, after hitting a daily high at 104.50 during the Asian session. The Japanese currency came under selling pressure after the Bank of Japan announced the outcome of its latest meeting.  

As widely anticipated, policymakers left rates unchanged at -0.1% and will continue to buy JGBs to keep 10-year yields at around 0%. Also as expected, policymakers trimmed growth and inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year, although at the same time said they expect a stronger bounce next year. As it happens with other central banks, they also warned the outlook is highly uncertain and dependent on the pandemic developments. The country released September Retail Trade, which fell 8.7% YoY, worse than anticipated, and the October Consumer Confidence Index that improved to 33.6 from 32.7.

The focus now shifts to the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product, with the annualized figure seen improving from -31.4% to 31%, a record bounce. At the same time, the European Central Bank will announce its latest decision on monetary policy.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly USDJPY forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the yen-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: Stimulus, hope or hype

The once and future US stimulus package is the market intervention of the month. As the Republicans and Democrats try to wring as much electoral advantage from negotiations, statements of hope for a deal from Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump on Wednesday, sent the USD/JPY cascading to a four-week low.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD tumbles to one-month low as ECB signals stimulus

EUR/USD has dropped below 1.17, to the lowest since late September. The ECB expressed concern about the spread of covid and signaled more stimulus in December. Earlier, US GDP beat estimates. The US elections are eyed.

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GBP/USD tumbles below 1.30 as market mood worsens

GBP/USD has dropped below 1.30, reversing its Brexit-related gains. Growing concerns about coronavirus in the UK and the US elections are weighing on the pound.

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USD/JPY: Bears in control as fears prevail

The BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged but downgraded growth and inflation forecasts. The focus now shifts to US Q3 Gross Domestic Product that is seen posting a record bounce. USD/JPY is technically bearish and about to break below September monthly low.

USD/JPY News

Gold depressed near 1-month lows, below $1870 level post-US GDP

Resurgent USD demand prompted some fresh selling around gold on Thursday. The USD stood tall following the release of upbeat US third-quarter GDP report. The US economy expanded by 33.1% annualized pace as against 31% expected. 

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WTI collapses to $35.00, new 4-month lows

Prices of the WTI drops to 4-month lows near the $35.00 mark per barrel in the second half of the week as traders continue to track the unremitting advance of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the demand for the commodity.

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USDJPY YEARLY FORECAST

How could USDJPY move this year? Our experts make a USDJPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 USDJPY forecast!

USDJPY FORECAST 2020

In our USDJPY Price Forecast 2020, our dedicated contributors seeing an overall bullish picture. By the end of the year 2019, the average forecast for the pair was 108,6800. Read more details about the forecast.

From July 2019 to January 2020, the maximum level for the USDJPY was 119.58¥/USD (on December 16th 2019), and the minimum, 104.72¥/USD (on August 25 2019).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR USDJPY

Sino-American relations will likely continue moving markets early in the year. Financial markets will likely seek assurances that the world’s largest economies are not on course to any deterioration.

The Bank of Japan is unlikely to move, but would probably like to keep on waving its stick and threaten more action.


Influential Institutions & People for the USDJPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Haruhiko Kuroda

Haruhiko Kuroda was nominated, by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as Governor of the Bank of Japan in March 2013. He had previously worked as President of the Asian Development Bank for 8 years. As the head of the BOJ, he has a major influence over the Japanese Yen. His words are usually followed by traders in order to find any clue of next possible trend in the currency. 

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About USDJPY

The USDJPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.