USDJPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY
The USD/JPY has witnessed an unreliable rebound after hitting an intraday low of 126.67 in the Asian session. The asset has been trading in a defined range since Tuesday and is expected to continue its volatility contraction amid the unavailability of any significant economic event in today’s session.
Latest JPY News
Technical Overview.
The USD/JPY pair attracted some dip-buying in the vicinity of mid-126.00s on Thursday and recovered a part of its early lost ground. The intraday uptick pushed spot prices back above the 127.00 mark during the early North American session, though lacked any follow-through.
Fundamental Overview
The risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the USD/JPY pair. That said, concerns about softening global economic growth kept a lid on the optimistic move, which, along with subdued US dollar demand acted as a headwind for the major.
Speculations that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle later this year dragged the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to a fresh six-week low. This, in turn, failed to assist the USD to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the monthly low. Even the mixed US macro data also did little to impress the USD bulls or provide any impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
The Prelim US GDP report showed that the world's largest economy contracted by a 1.5% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2022 as against the advance estimate for a 1.4% decline. The slight disappointment from the backwards-looking data, to some extent, was offset by better-than-expected US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 210K last week from the 218K previous.
Thursday's US economic docket also features the release of Pending Home Sales, though is unlikely to influence the buck or produce any meaningful trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, spot prices, so far, have managed to hold above the monthly low. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly USDJPY forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the yen-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
USD/JPY: A reversal of fortune? Premium
USD/JPY sheds four weeks of gains, stalls for three days near 127.00. BoJ Governor Kuroda hints at tighter monetary policy. US core PCE inflation cools to 4.9% from 5.2% in April. FXStreet Forecat Poll predicts a pause and recovery at 126.00.
Big Picture
USDJPY Bullish Themes
USDJPY Bearish Themes
Latest JPY Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data
EUR/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range but continues to trade above 1.0700 in the early American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index declined to 4.9% in April as expected, making it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.
GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand
GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600 and remains on track to end the week in positive territory. The greenback struggles to attract investors after the data from the US showed that PCE inflation softened in April.
USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY
The USD/JPY has witnessed an unreliable rebound after hitting an intraday low of 126.67 in the Asian session. The asset has been trading in a defined range since Tuesday and is expected to continue its volatility contraction amid the unavailability of any significant economic event in today’s session.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850
Gold has lost its traction in the second half of the day on Friday and declined toward the $1,850 area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield staged a modest rebound on the US PCE inflation data, not allowing XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus
WTI struggles to extend the upside break of the key hurdle, grinds higher around the two-month top during Friday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold seesaws near $113.10 at the latest. Given the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, joining the bullish MACD signals to back WTI’s latest breakout, the commodity prices are likely to extend the run-up.
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Signatures
USDJPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USDJPY move this year? Our experts make a USDJPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 USDJPY forecast!
USDJPY FORECAST 2022
In the USDJPY Price Forecast 2022, our dedicated contributors seeing a sideways tendency. By the end of the year 2021, the average forecast for the pair is 103.2100. Read more details about the forecast.
From January 2021 to December 2021, the maximum level for the USDJPY was 115.42¥/USD (on November 24th 2021), and the minimum, 103.49¥/USD (on January 21st 2021).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR USDJPY
Political measures to counter coronavirus will be in the focus of the market this 2022. The prolonged impact of the pandemic resulted in major central banks launching asset-buying and lending programs while keeping policy rates near record lows.
Following decades of substantial growth, Japan has been suffering from stagnation since the 1990's stock buble crisis, marked by low inflation, low interest rates and sluggish growth. 2022 might be a a good time to think about the role of current monetary policies and their real impact on economic developments.
Influential Institutions & People for the USDJPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.
BOJ Official Website and on Twitter
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Haruhiko Kuroda
Haruhiko Kuroda was nominated, by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as Governor of the Bank of Japan in March 2013. He had previously worked as President of the Asian Development Bank for 8 years. As the head of the BOJ, he has a major influence over the Japanese Yen. His words are usually followed by traders in order to find any clue of next possible trend in the currency.
Draghi on BOJ'S Profile and Wikipedia
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USDJPY
The USDJPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.