USDJPY Forecast and News


USD/JPY drops to fresh daily lows near 103.60

USD/JPY is falling for the second straight day on Friday. Wall Street's main indexes look to open in the negative territory. 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 2%.

Latest JPY News


Technical Overview.

The USD/JPY pair posted small daily losses on Thursday and continued to push lower on Friday with risk-off flows helping the JPY outperform its rivals. As of writing, the pair was trading at fresh daily lows, losing 0.14% at 103.64.

"The outlook is mixed and USD could trade between 103.00 and 104.40 for now," said UOB analysts. "Looking forward, the risk for a break of 104.40 first appears to be higher but USD could trade within the range for a while more.”

USD/JPY keeps the rangebound theme unchanged – UOB.


Fundamental Overview

On Thursday, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks made it difficult for the greenback to find demand. Additionally, a sell-the-fact market reaction to Presiden-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus plan caused US Treasury bond yields to turn south and ramped up the bearish pressure on USD/JPY.

On Friday, the souring market mood, as reflected by a 0.4% drop in S&P 500 Futures and a 2.4% decline in the 10-year T-bond yield, is allowing the JPY to preserve its strength as a safe haven.

Meanwhile, the greenback is also taking advantage of the flight to safety with the US Dollar Index gaining 0.25% on the day at 90.45 and limiting USD/JPY's downside for the time being.

Later in the session, December Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. The University of Michigan will release its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index report for January as well. More importantly, market participants will keep a close eye on the performance of Wall Street's main indexes. A sharp decline in the US stocks is likely to force USD/JPY to edge lower ahead of the weekend.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly USDJPY forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the yen-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: Weakening US statistics fail to dent the dollar

Twin specters of unemployment and a consumer recession in the United States were unable to dislodge the dollar from its recent gains and the USD/JPY ended the week at 103.85 just points from Monday's open at 103.89.

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Big Picture

USDJPY Bullish Themes

USDJPY Bearish Themes

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FXS Signals

Latest JPY Analysis


Latest JPY Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD hits fresh one-month low amid souring market mood

EUR/USD has been extending its falls and dips below 1.21 as US retail sales badly disappointed and the worsening mood is supporting the safe-haven dollar. Markets digest Biden's stimulus plan. US Consumer Sentiment declined to 59.2 points. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.36 amid fresh dollar strength

GBP/US has pared its gains and falls toward 1.36 as the dollar gains ground. The UK economy shrank by 2.6% in November, better than estimated. The UK is ramping up its vaccination campaign and PM Johnson is pressured to ease the lockdown. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY drops to fresh daily lows near 103.60

USD/JPY is falling for the second straight day on Friday. Wall Street's main indexes look to open in the negative territory. 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 2%.

USD/JPY News

Gold extends sideways grind near $1,850

The XAU/USD pair registered small daily gains on Thursday but struggled to extend its recovery amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers on Friday. As of writing, the pair was up 0.15% on a daily basis at $1,849.

Gold news

WTI drops briefly back below $52.00 amid risk off market conditions

The front-month futures contract for the American benchmark for sweet light crude oil, West Texas Intermediary (WTI), has been on the back foot on the final trading day of the week.

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Signatures


USDJPY YEARLY FORECAST

How could USDJPY move this year? Our experts make a USDJPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 USDJPY forecast!

USDJPY FORECAST 2021

In the USDJPY Price Forecast 2021, our dedicated contributors seeing a sideways tendency. By the end of the year 2020, the average forecast for the pair is 103.2100. Read more details about the forecast.

From January 2020 to December 2020, the maximum level for the USDJPY was 112.28¥/USD (on February 19th 2020), and the minimum, 102.94¥/USD (on March 09th 2020).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR USDJPY

Political measures to counter coronavirus will be the market focus this 2021. The prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in worldwide central banks launching asset-buying and lending programs while keeping the main rates on hold at record lows.

The BoJ announced it “will conduct an assessment on further effective and sustainable monetary easing,” and pledged to maintain the current monetary easing until inflation reaches the 2% goal.


Influential Institutions & People for the USDJPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Haruhiko Kuroda

Haruhiko Kuroda was nominated, by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as Governor of the Bank of Japan in March 2013. He had previously worked as President of the Asian Development Bank for 8 years. As the head of the BOJ, he has a major influence over the Japanese Yen. His words are usually followed by traders in order to find any clue of next possible trend in the currency. 

BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


About USDJPY

The USDJPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.