USDCAD Forecast and News


USD/CAD climbs to six-week tops, around mid-1.3300s

The prevalent USD buying interest pushed the USD/CAD pair to fresh six-week tops, around the 1.3350-55 region during the early North American session.

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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly USDCAD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Canadian dollar-US dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Where is the Canadian optimism?

The USD/CAD scored its first weekly gain in two months as a sharp drop in oil prices weighed on Canadian economic prospects and the central bank stressed that the pandemic recovery is a long term project.

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USDCAD Bullish Themes

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD: 23.6% Fib retracement support breached

EUR/USD closed Wednesday below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March to September rally. The pair may challenge resistance levels at 1.1687 to 1.17, before suffering a deeper drop, as suggested by the head-and-shoulders breakdown seen on the daily chart.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds on to daily gains amid Brexit’s optimism

The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.2750, underpinned by EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier's optimism on a post-Brexit trade deal. UK Business activity remains in expansion territory according to Markit.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: This could be the bulls's last dance in the 105, eyes on 103.50s

USD/JPY is stalling at market structure and bears and looking for opportunity to the downside. Bulls might have some upside to go yet, but the air will be getting thinner in those heights.

USD/JPY News

Gold's potential short-term reprieve if USD pulls back

Gold prices have deteriorated in the US dollar's relentless comeback as investors move away from stocks. The price of the dollar is correlated to gold, so it stands to reason that if the dollar is about to tail off its gains, then gold should find reprieve.

Gold News

WTI: Oil sellers face rejection below $39.30 for third straight day

WTI fades the drop to sub-$39.30 levels for the third consecutive day. The repeated bear failure may entice buyers and yield a bounce. However, Sept. 18 high remains a level to beat for the bulls.

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USDCAD YEARLY FORECAST

How could USDCAD move this year? Our experts make a USDCAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar-US dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 USDCAD forecast!

USDCAD FORECAST 2020

In our USDCAD Forecast Price 2020, our dedicated contributors expect a potential bullish trend during the year. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 1,3102. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jul 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the USDCAD (Canadian dollar US dollar) was 1.3638 (on 02/01/19), and the minimum, 1.3006 (on 31/12/19).

2020 OUTLOOK FOR USDCAD

With the pending trade agreement, the USDCAD direction will be again be determined by the relative strengths of the United States and China economies and the impact on the interest rate policies of the respective central banks.

With the Canadian economy performing well, the BOC governors would need an extraordinary economic reason to re-open the interest rate discussion.


ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USDCAD

In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:

  • Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
  • Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.

In the USA, we have:

  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USDCAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.

Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Tiff Macklem

Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.

BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS

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About USDCAD

THE 'LOONIE'

The USDCAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). The 'Loonie' is a gold-coloured coin that was introduced in 1987 and is produced by the Royal Canadian Mint at its facility in Winnipeg.
The most prevalent versions of the coin show a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, on the reverse and Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's head of state, on the obverse

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE

The USDCAD is one of the three so-called “commodity pairs”, together with the following ones: AUD/USD, NZD/USD. These pairs are highly correlated to commodity (especially oil) fluctuations.

Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
Gonçalo Moreira explains the correlations that exist between oil, the USD and the CAD: "If Canada is one of the world's largest producers of oil and oil is such a big part of the US economy, rising oil prices tend to have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD. Here you have two nice correlations.” Then he continues his analysis: “If you are willing to find a pair which is really sensitive to oil prices, then pick the CAD/JPY. Canada and Japan are at the extreme ends of production and consumption of oil. While Canada benefits from higher oil prices, Japan's economy can suffer because it imports nearly all of the oil it consumes. This is another interesting correlation to follow."

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
  • Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
    • Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).