USDCAD Forecast and News
USD/CAD keeps the red near multi-week low, below mid-1.2700s post-US data
The USD/CAD pair maintained its offered tone below mid-1.2700s, or over a three-week low through the early North American session and moved little post-US macro data.
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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
USD/CAD: The commodity complex starts to look shaky Premium

The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve added another verse to their policy roundelay this week as inflation drove speculation that half-point hikes are the next order of business for both banks.
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EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range but continues to trade above 1.0700 in the early American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index declined to 4.9% in April as expected, making it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.
GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand

GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600 and remains on track to end the week in positive territory. The greenback struggles to attract investors after the data from the US showed that PCE inflation softened in April.
USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY

The USD/JPY has witnessed an unreliable rebound after hitting an intraday low of 126.67 in the Asian session. The asset has been trading in a defined range since Tuesday and is expected to continue its volatility contraction amid the unavailability of any significant economic event in today’s session.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850

Gold has lost its traction in the second half of the day on Friday and declined toward the $1,850 area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield staged a modest rebound on the US PCE inflation data, not allowing XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus

WTI struggles to extend the upside break of the key hurdle, grinds higher around the two-month top during Friday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold seesaws near $113.10 at the latest. Given the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, joining the bullish MACD signals to back WTI’s latest breakout, the commodity prices are likely to extend the run-up.
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USDCAD YEARLY FORECAST
How could USDCAD move this year? Our experts make a USDCAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar-US dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 USDCAD forecast!
USDCAD FORECAST 2022
In the USDCAD Forecast Price 2022, our dedicated contributors expect a bearish trend during the year. By the end of the year 2022, the average outlook for the pair is 1.2393. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the USDCAD (Canadian dollar US dollar) was 1.2942 (on 20/12/21), and the minimum, 1.2034 (on 06/02/21).
2022 OUTLOOK FOR USDCAD
Of the three main fundamental factors for the USD/CAD in 2022, the comparative Canadian and US economies, central bank interest rates and the price of oil, the first is a wash, the second tilts to the US and the third is unlikely to rise sufficiently to give the loonie a long-term advantage. The US and Canadian economies are likely to grow at similar rates next year. Central bank rate speculation depends on the course of inflation. If the American inflation reports leading to the March FOMC meeting show high or accelerating price increases, a March fed funds hike will rise to a near certainty.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USDCAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:
- Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USDCAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.
Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.
Macklem on BOC'S Profile and Wikipedia
BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USDCAD
THE 'LOONIE'
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE
Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
- Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
- Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).