USD/CAD Forecast and News
USD/CAD remains below 1.3700 near five-month lows
USD/CAD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3680 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The daily chart suggests a potential upside breakout, with falling, converging trendlines forming a bullish descending wedge pattern.
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Gold retreats from record highs amid profit-taking on Christmas Eve
Gold retreats following the move higher to the $4,525 area, or a fresh all-time peak, though the downside remains limited amid a bullish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
EUR/USD off three-month highs, holds near 1.1800 on softer US Dollar
EUR/USD consolidates gains below 1.1800 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. A broadly subdued US Dollar continues to underpin the pair amid quiet markets and thin liquidity conditions on Christmas Eve.
GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets
GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 in the European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders turn to sidelines heading into the holiday season.
Shiba Inu's bears tighten grip, aiming for yearly lows
Shiba Inu price remains under pressure, trading below $0.000070 on Wednesday as bearish momentum continues to dominate the broader crypto market. On-chain and derivatives data further support the bearish sentiment, while technical analysis suggests a deeper correction targeting the yearly lows.
Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test
After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.
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USD/CAD YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/CAD move this year? Our experts make a USD/CAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar (CAD) - US dollar (USD) pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 USD/CAD forecast!
USD/CAD 2025 FORECAST
In the USD/CAD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Joshua Gibson suggests uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) early in 2025, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to weaken in the first quarter. However, CAD investors may reassess prospects as the year progresses, focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) - Bank of Canada (BoC) policy dynamics.
From a technical point of view, USD/CAD could face a technical ceiling near the 1.4400 level after the Canadian Dollar's sharp 8.5% decline in 2024 sent the pair to 56-month highs. However, technical indicators like the MACD suggest caution, as short positions may only become viable once clear sell signals emerge, likely during the first quarter.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/CAD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.
The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.
INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE FOR THE USD/CAD
Bank of Canada (BoC)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the nation's central bank. Its principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." The bank's responsibilities are divided into four main areas:
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Monetary policy: The bank influences the supply of money in the economy, using its monetary policy framework to keep low and stable inflation.
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Financial system: The bank promotes safe, sound, and efficient financial systems within Canada and internationally, conducting transactions in financial markets to support these objectives.
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Currency: The bank designs, issues, and distributes Canada's banknotes.
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Funds management: The bank is the fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
The official website, on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and FacebookJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and
Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montreal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada effective June 3, 2020, for a seven-year term. He graduated from Queen's University with a bachelor's degree in economics and completed a master's degree and a PhD in economics, both from the University of Western Ontario.
Before becoming Governor, Macklem served as a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia and chair of its risk committee. He is chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and co-chair of the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for the Americas.
Macklem's BOC's profile and Wikipedia
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About USD/CAD
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE ‘LOONIE’
The USD/CAD is one of the three "commodity pairs", alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. These pairs are closely tied to commodity price fluctuations, particularly Oil.
Canada, known as a resource-based economy, is a major producer and supplier of Oil. Its leading export market is the United States, making the Canadian dollar (CAD) particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economic health.
Rising Oil prices typically have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: As previously mentioned, Oil is the primary focus, but traders should also consider Gold and Natural Gas.
- Currencies: The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). Another important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).