USD/CAD Forecast and News
USD/CAD: 21-day EMA defends bears’ attacks on 1.3600
USD/CAD remains depressed despite the latest bounce off 1.3595. The loonie pair remains on the back foot for the second day while testing 21-day EMA. The quote earlier refreshed the monthly high to 1.3646 on Tuesday but failed to cross 50-day EMA.
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Technical Overview
Fundamental Overview
Big Picture
USD/CAD Bullish Themes
USD/CAD Bearish Themes
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Moderate risk-aversion is not panic
The USD/CAD saw its second weekly rise in June as rising virus cases in the US and elsewhere prompted a return to the dollar and a moderate risk-premium.
Latest CAD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD hits four-month high of 1.1423
EUR/USD prints a four-month high of 1.1423 in Asia. The pair witnessed a bullish breakout above 1.1349 on Tuesday. The pair closed well above 1.1349 on Tuesday, invalidating the bearish lower high setup created on the daily chart on June 23.
GBP/USD: Bulls breaking up through critical 4HR structure, blue skies on horizon
GBP bulls taking over and seeking out a break from key support. Blue skies are on the horizon, but there is plenty of leg work to do yet. The pound has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies of late.
USD/JPY: All eyes on BOJ to extend run-up past-107.00
USD/JPY refreshes the intraday high following a U-turn from 107.15. Increasing hopes of virus vaccine follow Wall Street's performance to recall the bulls. News that Tokyo will raise the pandemic to the highest levels, fears of an escalation in the US-China tussle challenge sentiment.
Gold: Daily chart shows temporary uptrend exhaustion
Gold's daily chart shows a bearish divergence of the MACD, a sign of uptrend exhaustion. A break below the 10-day SMA could prove costly. The metal looks vulnerable to price pullback.
WTI: Prints another pullback from $41.00
WTI takes a U-turn from $41.08 to mark fifth failure to stay beyond the $41.00 threshold. 21-day EMA, a three-week-old support line restrict immediate downside. June month high, 200-day EMA offers strong resistance.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:
- Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.
Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.
Macklem on BOC'S Profile and Wikipedia
BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/CAD
THE 'LOONIE'
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE
Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
- Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
- Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).