USDCAD Forecast and News


USD/CAD: Bears look to October 2018 low on pullback from previous support

USD/CAD renews downside momentum after reversing from 12-day-old resistance line, previous support. The quote trades near the lowest since October 3, 2018, flashed on Thursday. The pair recently bounced off the multi-day low of 1.2852 before stepping back from the previous support line stretched since November 18, near 1.2880 now.

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SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly USDCAD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Canadian dollar-US dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: is the US dollar this weak?

The Canadian Dollar scored a trifecta this week with crude oil prices rising to their best level since the March pandemic advent, favorable technical indicators and the continuing aversion to the American currency from the still rising COVID-19 count in the United States.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD: Hovers near 1.2150, Thursday's candle suggests scope for minor pullback

EUR/USD is trading near 1.2150 in Asia, representing a more than 1.5% gain for the week. While the pair ticked higher for the third straight day on Thursday, it created a candle with a long upper wick validating the above-70 or overbought signal on the 14-day RSI.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops back from yearly highs at 1.3500 amid Brexit nerves

Brexit nerves have triggered a drop from year-to-date highs reached on Thursday of 1.3500. The pair still closed Thursday FX trade with gains of over 80 pips or 0.6%. Talks apparently went badly on Thursday, with level playing field issues reportedly causing problems.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bearish bias across Monthly, Weekly charts

USD/JPY trapped between daily support and resistance against bearish backdrop. Yen is under pressure across the longer-term time frames and is trending within a weekly channel to the downside.

USD/JPY News

Gold fades upside momentum towards $1,850 amid mixed catalysts

Gold prices ease from $1,842.36 as risk-on dwindles. The yellow metal rose to the nine-day high the previous day as the US dollar weakness, coupled with the market optimism, favored the bulls.

Gold news

WTI bulls ignore downbeat comments from Russia’s Novak, eye $46.00

WTI wavers near the upper end of one-week-old bullish flag. The black gold remains positive on a daily basis while taking rounds to the November month’s high, also the highest since March. Risk-on mood, US dollar weakness favor the commodities, US employment data awaited.

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USDCAD YEARLY FORECAST

How could USDCAD move this year? Our experts make a USDCAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar-US dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 USDCAD forecast!

USDCAD FORECAST 2020

In our USDCAD Forecast Price 2020, our dedicated contributors expect a potential bullish trend during the year. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 1,3102. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jul 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the USDCAD (Canadian dollar US dollar) was 1.3638 (on 02/01/19), and the minimum, 1.3006 (on 31/12/19).

2020 OUTLOOK FOR USDCAD

With the pending trade agreement, the USDCAD direction will be again be determined by the relative strengths of the United States and China economies and the impact on the interest rate policies of the respective central banks.

With the Canadian economy performing well, the BOC governors would need an extraordinary economic reason to re-open the interest rate discussion.


ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USDCAD

In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:

  • Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
  • Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.

In the USA, we have:

  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USDCAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.

Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Tiff Macklem

Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.

BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


About USDCAD

THE 'LOONIE'

The USDCAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). The 'Loonie' is a gold-coloured coin that was introduced in 1987 and is produced by the Royal Canadian Mint at its facility in Winnipeg.
The most prevalent versions of the coin show a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, on the reverse and Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's head of state, on the obverse

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE

The USDCAD is one of the three so-called “commodity pairs”, together with the following ones: AUD/USD, NZD/USD. These pairs are highly correlated to commodity (especially oil) fluctuations.

Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
Gonçalo Moreira explains the correlations that exist between oil, the USD and the CAD: "If Canada is one of the world's largest producers of oil and oil is such a big part of the US economy, rising oil prices tend to have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD. Here you have two nice correlations.” Then he continues his analysis: “If you are willing to find a pair which is really sensitive to oil prices, then pick the CAD/JPY. Canada and Japan are at the extreme ends of production and consumption of oil. While Canada benefits from higher oil prices, Japan's economy can suffer because it imports nearly all of the oil it consumes. This is another interesting correlation to follow."

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
  • Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
    • Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).