USD/CAD Forecast and News
USD/CAD price slips below 1.3900 toward moving averages
USD/CAD inches lower after three days of gains, trading around 1.3890 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 60 is bullish and not overbought. RSI above the 50 midline keeps dips shallow.
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EUR/USD defends 1.1600 amid renewed US Dollar weakness
EUR/USD defends ground above 1.1600 in European trading on Friday. The US Dollar meets fresh supply amid a better market mood, despite receding bets for Fed rate cuts, lending some support to the pair. Fedspeak awaited.
GBP/USD grinds higher to 1.3400 as US Dollar turns south
GBP/USD edges higher to test 1.3400 in the European session on Friday after registering modest losses in the previous session. The pair draws support from a renewed bout of selling seen around the US Dollar as risk sentiment improves. The focus now turns to geopolitical developments and Fedspeak.
Gold steadies near $4,600 due to risk-on mood, Fed caution bets
Gold hovers around $4,600 during the early European hours on Friday. However, Gold prices fell amid decreasing safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks in Iran temporarily eased. US President Donald Trump signaled he may delay military action after Iran pledged not to execute protesters.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rally pauses near key levels
Bitcoin holds above $95,400 on Friday after rallying 5% so far this week. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps, hovering around key levels after their upside moves.
US Government still running massive deficit despite tariff revenue
Despite the influx of tariff revenue, the federal government continues to run a massive budget deficit. The December budget shortfall came in at $144.75 billion, a record for the month. That was 68 percent higher than December 2024.
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USD/CAD YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/CAD move this year? Our experts make a USD/CAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar (CAD) - US dollar (USD) pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 USD/CAD forecast!
USD/CAD 2025 FORECAST
In the USD/CAD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Joshua Gibson suggests uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) early in 2025, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to weaken in the first quarter. However, CAD investors may reassess prospects as the year progresses, focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) - Bank of Canada (BoC) policy dynamics.
From a technical point of view, USD/CAD could face a technical ceiling near the 1.4400 level after the Canadian Dollar's sharp 8.5% decline in 2024 sent the pair to 56-month highs. However, technical indicators like the MACD suggest caution, as short positions may only become viable once clear sell signals emerge, likely during the first quarter.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/CAD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.
The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.
INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE FOR THE USD/CAD
Bank of Canada (BoC)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the nation's central bank. Its principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." The bank's responsibilities are divided into four main areas:
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Monetary policy: The bank influences the supply of money in the economy, using its monetary policy framework to keep low and stable inflation.
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Financial system: The bank promotes safe, sound, and efficient financial systems within Canada and internationally, conducting transactions in financial markets to support these objectives.
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Currency: The bank designs, issues, and distributes Canada's banknotes.
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Funds management: The bank is the fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
The official website, on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and FacebookJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and
Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montreal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada effective June 3, 2020, for a seven-year term. He graduated from Queen's University with a bachelor's degree in economics and completed a master's degree and a PhD in economics, both from the University of Western Ontario.
Before becoming Governor, Macklem served as a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia and chair of its risk committee. He is chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and co-chair of the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for the Americas.
Macklem's BOC's profile and Wikipedia
BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/CAD
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE ‘LOONIE’
The USD/CAD is one of the three "commodity pairs", alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. These pairs are closely tied to commodity price fluctuations, particularly Oil.
Canada, known as a resource-based economy, is a major producer and supplier of Oil. Its leading export market is the United States, making the Canadian dollar (CAD) particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economic health.
Rising Oil prices typically have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: As previously mentioned, Oil is the primary focus, but traders should also consider Gold and Natural Gas.
- Currencies: The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). Another important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).