USD/CAD NEWS (US DOLLAR CANADIAN DOLLAR)

USD/CAD: Remains confined in a multi-day old trading range, below 1.3100 mark

The USD/CAD pair held on to its mildly positive tone through the early North-American session on Tuesday, albeit struggled to make it through the 1.3075-80 strong horizontal resistance.

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Technical Overview

Fundamental Overview

Big Picture

THEMES AFFECTING THE USD/CAD

SPECIAL USDCAD YEARLY FORECAST

USD/CAD Price Forecast 2020: Canada and loonie are well positioned but not in control

Joseph Trevisani
FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar’s fortunes in 2019 were dominated by the trans-Pacific trade war between the United States and China, a dispute in which Canada’s resource economy has a large interest but virtually no say. Presidents Trump and Xi have agreed on a phase-one trade deal that alters the discussion from antagonism to accommodation and aims to foster a relationship between the two economic titans that will lead to a more comprehensive arrangement in the future.

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Latest USDCAD Analysis

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD looks weak after rejection above 1.1100

EUR/USD looks weak after rejection above 1.1100

EUR/USD is sidelined near 1.1080 ahead of the London open. Single currency failed to keep gains above 1.11 on Tuesday despite upbeat German data. The sentiment is quite bearish and a deeper drop to the 100-day average could be in the offing.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD modestly flat around 1.3050 amid Brexit concerns, USD strength

GBP/USD modestly flat around 1.3050 amid Brexit concerns, USD strength

GBP/USD holds onto the recovery despite looming Brexit uncertainty and broad-based US dollar strength. EU is likely to offer a tough Brexit deal that increases the odds of harsh departure.

GBP/USD News

Bank of Canada Rate Decision Preview: Rewards of Economic patience

Bank of Canada Rate Decision Preview: Rewards of Economic patience

Bank of Canada is forecast to leave the overnight rate at 1.75% where is has been since it was increased 25 basis points on October 24th 2018.   The bank makes rate policy decisions at eight fixed date meeting a year. The next is March 4th.

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Gold remains under pressure around $1,551 as US dollar keeps the gains

Gold remains under pressure around $1,551 as US dollar keeps the gains

Gold bounces off the intra-day low of $1,550.40, flashed a few minutes back, to $1,551.30 by the press time of the pre-European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the safe-haven ignores the geopolitical risks emanating from China.

Gold News

USD/JPY rises above 110.00, potential head-and-shoulders on 1H

USD/JPY rises above 110.00, potential head-and-shoulders on 1H

Risk reset in stocks is boding well for USD/JPY.  The pair may be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. The bulls are not out of the woods yet and a break above 110.12 is needed to invalidate lower highs setup on the hourly chart.

USD/JPY News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD

In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:

  • Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Stephen Poloz.
  • Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.

In the USA, we have:

  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.

Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia

Stephen S. Poloz

Stephen S. Poloz was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2013, for a term of seven years. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank and a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.

Poloz on BOC'S Profile and Wikipedia

BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS

About USD/CAD

THE 'LOONIE'

The USD/CAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). The 'Loonie' is a gold-coloured coin that was introduced in 1987 and is produced by the Royal Canadian Mint at its facility in Winnipeg.
The most prevalent versions of the coin show a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, on the reverse and Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's head of state, on the obverse

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE

The USD/CAD is one of the three so-called “commodity pairs”, together with the following ones: AUD/USD, NZD/USD. These pairs are highly correlated to commodity (especially oil) fluctuations.

Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
Gonçalo Moreira explains the correlations that exist between oil, the USD and the CAD: "If Canada is one of the world's largest producers of oil and oil is such a big part of the US economy, rising oil prices tend to have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD. Here you have two nice correlations.” Then he continues his analysis: “If you are willing to find a pair which is really sensitive to oil prices, then pick the CAD/JPY. Canada and Japan are at the extreme ends of production and consumption of oil. While Canada benefits from higher oil prices, Japan's economy can suffer because it imports nearly all of the oil it consumes. This is another interesting correlation to follow."

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
  • Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
    • Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).