Wages did not start to open an appreciable gap over inflation until the second half of 2016. That edge which translates into disposable income continued to improve to its widest in a decade when, in August 2018 annual wages gains vaulted over 3%, where they have remained. The last eleven months have seen the best sustained wage increases since the recession.
| Consumer-related inflation | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI exFood/Energy YoY | 3 | 2.10% | Neutral | 2.07% | 2.06% | 2.12% |
| CPI exFood/Energy MoM | 3 | 0.30% | Neutral | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.16% |
| CPI YoY | 2 | 1.60% | Down | 1.80% | 1.76% | 1.93% |
| CPI MoM | 2 | 0.10% | Neutral | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.14% |
| Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2 | 1.60% | Down | 1.60% | 1.66% | 1.79% |
| Core PCE Price Index MoM | 2 | 0.20% | Neutral | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.12% |
| PCE Price Index YoY | 1 | 1.50% | Down | 1.50% | 1.44% | 1.69% |
| PCE Price Index MoM | 1 | 0.20% | Up | 0.23% | 0.14% | 0.13% |
| PPI exFood/Energy YoY | 2 | 2.30% | Down | 2.33% | 2.38% | 2.50% |
| PPI exFood/Energy MoM | 1 | 0.30% | Neutral | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.22% |
| PPI YoY | 1 | 1.70% | Down | 1.90% | 1.96% | 2.23% |
| PPI MoM | 1 | 0.10% | Neutral | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.17% |
| GDP Price Index | 2 | 0.60% | Down | 1.33% | 1.90% | 1.89% |
| ISM Prices Paid | 2 | 47.90 | Down | 50.36 | 50.96 | 55.85 |
| Redbook Index YoY | 1 | 4.70% | Neutral | 5.47% | 5.36% | 5.39% |
| Redbook Index MoM | 1 | 1.00% | Down | -1.20% | -1.70% | -0.59% |
| Labor-related inflation | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3 | 3.10% | Neutral | 3.13% | 3.20% | 3.14% |
| Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 2 | 0.20% | Neutral | 0.20% | 0.22% | 0.23% |
| Personal Income MoM | 2 | 0.50% | Neutral | 0.37% | 0.24% | 0.34% |
| Employment Cost Index | 1 | 0.70% | Up | 0.73% | 0.72% | 0.67% |
| Housing-related inflation | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Price Index MoM | 1 | 0.40% | Neutral | 0.27% | 0.34% | 0.31% |
| Trade-related inflation | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Price Index YoY | 1 | -2.00% | Down | -1.33% | -1.00% | 0.04% |
| Import Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.90% | Down | -0.33% | 0.04% | -0.21% |
| Export Price Index YoY | 1 | -1.60% | Down | -0.67% | -0.22% | 0.74% |
| Export Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.70% | Down | -0.23% | 0.12% | -0.11% |
| Manufacturing-related inflation | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | 1 | -3 | Down | 3.67 | 4.80 | 4.70 |
US core consumer prices are accelerating once again. They have edged up from 2% YoY in March, the last month of the first quarter to 2.1% in April, the first month of the second quarter. And that is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell wanted to see.
