Consumer Price Index


US CPI data release

The Phillips Curve and the Fed’s wage insurance policy

Wages did not start to open an appreciable gap over inflation until the second half of 2016. That edge which translates into disposable income continued to improve to its widest in a decade when, in August 2018 annual wages gains vaulted over 3%, where they have remained. The last eleven months have seen the best sustained wage increases since the recession.

US inflation trends

Consumer-related inflationImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
CPI exFood/Energy YoY32.10%Neutral2.07%2.06%2.12%
CPI exFood/Energy MoM30.30%Neutral0.17%0.14%0.16%
CPI YoY21.60%Down1.80%1.76%1.93%
CPI MoM20.10%Neutral0.17%0.22%0.14%
Core PCE Price Index YoY21.60%Down1.60%1.66%1.79%
Core PCE Price Index MoM20.20%Neutral0.13%0.12%0.12%
PCE Price Index YoY11.50%Down1.50%1.44%1.69%
PCE Price Index MoM10.20%Up0.23%0.14%0.13%
PPI exFood/Energy YoY22.30%Down2.33%2.38%2.50%
PPI exFood/Energy MoM10.30%Neutral0.20%0.20%0.22%
PPI YoY11.70%Down1.90%1.96%2.23%
PPI MoM10.10%Neutral0.13%0.22%0.17%
GDP Price Index20.60%Down1.33%1.90%1.89%
ISM Prices Paid247.90Down50.3650.9655.85
Redbook Index YoY14.70%Neutral5.47%5.36%5.39%
Redbook Index MoM11.00%Down-1.20%-1.70%-0.59%
Labor-related inflationImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Average Hourly Earnings YoY33.10%Neutral3.13%3.20%3.14%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM20.20%Neutral0.20%0.22%0.23%
Personal Income MoM20.50%Neutral0.37%0.24%0.34%
Employment Cost Index10.70%Up0.73%0.72%0.67%
Housing-related inflationImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Housing Price Index MoM10.40%Neutral0.27%0.34%0.31%
Trade-related inflationImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Import Price Index YoY1-2.00%Down-1.33%-1.00%0.04%
Import Price Index MoM1-0.90%Down-0.33%0.04%-0.21%
Export Price Index YoY1-1.60%Down-0.67%-0.22%0.74%
Export Price Index MoM1-0.70%Down-0.23%0.12%-0.11%
Manufacturing-related inflationImpactLastTrendLast 3Last 5Last 10
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity1-3Down3.674.804.70

May US CPI


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