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Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD struggles to regain 0.7700 from weekly low as market braces for FOMC

AUD/USD wobbles around 0.7680-90, off a weekly low, as it begins the key Wednesday comprising the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Other than the pre-Fed caution, mixed data from the US and a light news feed also contribute to the pair’s latest sluggish performance.

AUD/USD News

Gold: Bulls looking for a upside correction ahead of Fed

The precious metals sector struggled overnight as investors position for a possible shift in monetary policy from the Fed. Gold prices were down some 0.4% in the final part of the North American day as the US dollar firmed ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Gold News

EUR/USD: Corrective pullback fades below previous support, 200-SMA

EUR/USD remains on the back foot, receding taking rounds to 1.2120-25, amid a sluggish Asian session trading on Wednesday. Sellers to keep reins as unless prices cross three-week-old resistance line. Easing bullish bias of MACD adds to the downside signals.

EUR/USD News

Cardano may drop 30% as hard-core believers vanish

Cardano price resolved a symmetrical triangle to the downside on June 11 and has wedged calmly higher, discovering resistance at the declining 50 twelve-hour SMA. 2018 high is critical support on weakness and is the only significant obstacle between ADA and a test of the May 19 low.

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Stocks ease ahead of Fed, pricing pressures grow, retail sales drop, mixed dollar

US stocks are slightly softer heading into the FOMC as the stimulus boost wanes, inflation fears grow, and the economic recovery shows signs of softening.  A wrath of US economic data delivered a somewhat mixed picture for Fed policy.

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USD/CAD, THE “LOONIE”

The USD/CAD tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is known as the "Loonie", a nickname derived from the picture of a loon, a distinctive bird which appears on one side of Canada's gold-coloured, one Dollar coin.


THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE

The USD/CAD is one of the three so-called “commodity pairs”, together with AUD/USD, NZD/USD, highly correlated to commodity (especially oil) fluctuations.

Canada is commonly known as a resource-based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.


FORECAST FOR 2021

In the annual forecast, our surveyed contributors expect the USD/CAD to reach 1.2392 by the end of the year.

Western Europe and the US can probably expect a drop in growth in the first quarter as the renewed closures for coronavirus countering hamstring economic activity. But once the recovery is underway Canada's large resource and oil-export industries will profit as commodity and oil prices continue higher returning to historical norms for a global expansion. Check out the full forecast


ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: oil but also gold and natural gas are to be taken into account.
  • Currencies: JPY and EUR. This group also includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
  • Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD

In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the USD/CAD pair are:

  • Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that promotes a safe and sound financial system within tyhe country, issuing statements and deciding on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
  • Canadian Government (headed by Justin Trudeau) and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
  • CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.

In the USA, we have:

  • The US Government (and its President Joe Biden): events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case the Canadian Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.

Inflation is another economic value that is important for the USD/CAD pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.