GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD trades below 1.2700 as focus shifts to Fedspeak
GBP/USD loses its recovery momentum and retreats to the 1.2650 area after rising toward 1.2700 earlier in the day. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals on upbeat JOLTS Job Openings data and makes it difficult for the pair to regain its traction as focus shifts to Fedspeak.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart moves sideways near 50, highlighting a lack of bearish momentum. Additionally, GBP/USD was last seen trading slightly above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) after staying below this level in the second half of the day on Monday.
On the upside, 1.2700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.2750 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.2810 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, 200-period SMA). If GBP/USD drops below 1.2660 (100-period SMA) and confirms that level as resistance), technical sellers could show interest. In this scenario, 1.2620 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as next support.
Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD fell more than 0.5% on Monday and snapped a three-day winning streak. The pair consolidates its losses early Tuesday and trades marginally higher on the day above 1.2650.
In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, the US Dollar (USD) benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere on Monday and gathered strength against its rivals. Early Tuesday, US stock index futures trade mixed, pointing to a cautious stance.
Nevertheless, Pound Sterling manages to limit its losses against the USD. EUR/GBP fell for four consecutive trading days on Monday and continued to edge lower early Tuesday, suggesting that Pound Sterling captures some capital outflows out of the Euro.
In the second half of the day, October JOLTS Job Openings data will be featured in the US economic calendar. In case the number of job openings arrive at or above 8 million, the USD could outperform its rivals with the immediate reaction and weigh on GBP/USD.
Later in the American session, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler and Chicago Fed President Austran Goolsbee will be delivering speeches. On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he is undecided on whether a rate cut is needed in December. Similarly, "one could argue a case for skipping a rate cut in December, will be watching data closely to decide," NY Fed President John Williams argued. In case Fed policymakers continue to sound cautious about a rate reduction in December, the USD could preserve its bullish momentum. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 72% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) cut in December.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling rebounds, not out of the woods yet Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) snapped a two-week downtrend and staged a comeback against the US Dollar (USD), driving the GBP/USD pair back to the 1.2700 threshold.
GBP/USD Big Picture
GBP/USD Bullish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD trapped below 1.0600
EUR/USD turned lower once again on Tuesday, grappling with the 1.0500 handle as Fiber flubs a bullish run at 1.0600. Several EU-centric datapoints are releasing on Wednesday, but most of the figures are final prints that are unlikely to move markets, and most investors are pivoting to face US NFP jobs data due at the end of the week.
GBP/USD trades below 1.2700 as focus shifts to Fedspeak
GBP/USD loses its recovery momentum and retreats to the 1.2650 area after rising toward 1.2700 earlier in the day. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals on upbeat JOLTS Job Openings data and makes it difficult for the pair to regain its traction as focus shifts to Fedspeak.
USD/JPY remains close to a near two-month low touched on Tuesday
USD/JPY struggles to attract meaningful buyers on Wednesday and languishes near its lowest level since October 11 touched the previous day as bets for a December BoJ rate hike underpin the JPY. Meanwhile, the USD draws support from expectations for a less dovish Fed and acts as a tailwind for the pair.
Gold keeps struggling for direction
Following Monday's retreat, Gold stabilizes and trades in a narrow band below $2,650. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays flat near 4.2% ahead of Fedspeak, making it difficult for XAU/USD to gather directional momentum.
WTI lacks firm intraday direction, oscillates in a range below $68.00
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and oscillate in a range below the $68.00/barrel mark during the Asian session.
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Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 GBP/USD forecast!
2024 GBP/USD FORECAST
In the GBP/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes there are plenty of unknowns and looming uncertainties that make it difficult to convincingly predict the course of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar (USD) in the year ahead. On both sides of the Atlantic, increased odds of a recession, a dovish pivot in the monetary policies and general elections are foreseen as the key factors driving the GBP/USD price action next year, barring any unprecedented geopolitical risks. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride in 2023 but the Pound Sterling managed to preserve the recovery gains seen in the first half of the year to a 15-month high of 1.3142.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR GBP/USD
BoE policymakers continue to push back against expectations of rate cuts next year. However, deteriorating economic performance prompted money markets to begin pricing in four 25 bps rate cuts starting from the summer, anticipating the key rate to be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024. The first cut is expected as early as June, to 5.0%.
Even though the Bank of England largely shrugged off a 0.3% contraction in GDP for October, the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a 2024 national election remains high.
A general election is expected next year in the US and the UK, which could fuel intense volatility around the GBP/USD pair. Amidst looming inflation and growth concerns, the political developments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be closely followed.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound / Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Sterling - US Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.