GBPUSD Forecast and News
GBP/USD eases below 1.2450 amid a steady US Dollar, ADP eyed
GBP/USD is retreating from 1.2450 in the European morning, as the US Dollar looks to stabilize following the recent sell-off. Markets digest renewed dovish Fed expectations and US debt deal passage ahead of the top-tier US ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
Latest GBP News
Technical Overview
GBP/USD continues to trade outside the descending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays above 50, reflecting the bullish bias in the near term. On the upside, 1.2440/50 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) forms stiff resistance area. In case buyers flip that level into support, additional gains toward 1.2480 (200-period SMA) and 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) could be witnessed.
On the downside, 1.2400 (psychological level, static level) aligns as interim support ahead of 1.2380 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) and 1.2350 (upper limit of the broken descending channel).
Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD has lost its traction and retreated toward 1.2400 after having closed the first three trading days of the week in positive territory. 1.2440/50 area aligns as key resistance and buyers could take action once that level is confirmed as support.
GBP/USD stayed under bearish pressure and dropped to the 1.2350 area in the first half of the day on Wednesday with safe-haven flows providing a boost to the US Dollar (USD). In the late American session, however, the USD lost its strength on improving risk mood after the US House of Representatives passed a bill to suspend the debt-ceiling through January 1, 2025. Moreover, dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials put additional weight on the USD's shoulders.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson both voiced their willingness to skip a rate hike in June. The CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability for a 25 basis points rate increase at the upcoming policy meeting climbed above 60% following these comments from nearly 30% earlier in the day.
Nevertheless, the USD stays resilient against its peers early Thursday and limits GBP/USD's upside for the time being. The risk-positive market environment and the market pricing of the Fed's rate outlook, however, suggests that the USD could have a difficult time outperforming its major rivals.
In the early American session, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release the private sector employment report. Markets expect an increase of 170,000 in May following the impressive 229,000 growth recorded in April. A weaker-than-expected reading should weigh on the USD in the near term and help GBP/USD stretch higher and vice versa. The US economic docket will also feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey for May. The headline PMI is forecast to stay below 50 and show an ongoing contraction in the sector's activity. Unless this data recovers back above 50, it is unlikely to support the USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBPUSD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: More downside in the offing, with eyes on US debt deal, NFP Premium
Pound Sterling sellers flexed their muscles amid persistent demand for the safe-haven US Dollar, as the uncertainty over the US debt-ceiling issue sapped investors’ confidence.
Big Picture
GBPUSD Bullish Themes
GBPUSD BEARISh Themes
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0700 after EU inflation data
EUR/USD recovered toward 1.0700 despite soft inflation data from the Euro area, which revealed that the annual HICP rose 6.1% in May, compared to market expectation of 6.3%. The risk-positive market environment limits the USD's upside and helps the pair stretch higher ahead of key US data.
GBP/USD eases below 1.2450 amid a steady US Dollar, ADP eyed
GBP/USD is retreating from 1.2450 in the European morning, as the US Dollar looks to stabilize following the recent sell-off. Markets digest renewed dovish Fed expectations and US debt deal passage ahead of the top-tier US ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
USD/JPY recovery stalls above 139.00, bull flag in the spotlight
USD/JPY picks up bids to refresh its intraday high near 139.50 as it prints the first daily gains in four during early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair recovers from the bottom line of a short-term bull flag formation. The RSI (14) line’s rebound from the below-50 region seems to underpin the USD/JPY pair’s latest recovery moves within the flag.
Gold: $1,970, looming US employment clues prod XAU/USD bulls
Gold price teases bears after keeping the buyers hopeful in the last two days, retreating from the weekly top of late. In doing so, the yellow metal justifies the market’s dicey conditions.
Oil bear pennant challenges buyers around mid-$68.00s
WTI crude oil consolidates the biggest weekly loss in three by printing minor upside near $68.50, making 1.10% intraday gains heading into Thursday’s European session. The black gold snaps two-day downtrend but stays within an immediate bear pennant chart formation suggesting further declines of the energy benchmark.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBPUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBPUSD move this year? Our experts make a GBPUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 GBPUSD forecast!
2023 GBPUSD FORECAST
In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2023, our dedicated contributors expect a continuation of the bullish trend during the year. By the end of 2022, the average price for the pair is 1.1791. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the maximum level for the GBPUSD (Pound US Dollar) was 1.24183 (on 14/12/22), and the minimum, 1.0339 (on 26/09/22).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR GBPUSD
It was another down year for the GBP/USD pair but the severity of the decline was intense mainly due to the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) in the first half of 2022. Meanwhile, the failure of the United Kingdom (UK) political system collaborated with the collapse of the Pound Sterling against the United States Dollar (USD) in the second half of the year.
Additionally, the British economy was badly hit by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that took place in February last year. The West responded with harsh sanctions on Russia, as Moscow refused to stay quiet and cut the gas supplies to Europe and the United Kingdom among other restrictive measures.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBPUSD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBPUSD
The GBPUSD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.