GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD recedes to 1.3140 on USD rebound
GBP/USD remains on the back foot on Friday, retreating to the 1.3140 region on the back of the marked upside impulse in the Greenback. In the meantime, worries about the UK’s fiscal discipline and political stability keep the British Pound under scrutiny, weighing on Cable. Adding to the noise, reports suggested PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have shelved plans to raise income tax rates.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The recent breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bears. Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of the oversold territory, which, along with negative oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3000 psychological mark could fizzle out rather quickly.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the weekly swing high, around the 1.3190 region, before positioning for further gains. The GBP/USD pair might then aim towards challenging the 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.3275-1.3280 region, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
On the flip side, the 1.3100-1.3085 zone could act as an immediate support, below which the GBP/USD pair could aim to retest the 1.3000 mark, or the lowest level since April, touched last week. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for deeper losses towards the 1.2950 intermediate support before spot prices eventually drop to sub-1.2900 levels.
Fundamental Overview
US President Donald Trump signed a stopgap spending bill to reopen the federal government, ending the longest shutdown in American history. The USD selling bias, however, remains unabated amid concerns about weakening economic momentum on the back of a record 43-day US government shutdown. In fact, economists estimate that the prolonged government closure might have already shaved approximately 1.5 to 2.0% off quarterly GDP growth. Moreover, signs of a deteriorating US labor market back the case for more policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which keeps the USD depressed near a two-week low.
Meanwhile, preliminary figures published by the UK Office for National Statistics showed that the economy grew a meager 0.1% in the July to September period, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter and missing estimates for a 0.2% rise. Furthermore, the monthly GDP print revealed that the UK economy actually contracted by 0.1% in September. The data reaffirmed expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates next month. This might keep a lid on the GBP and the GBP/USD pair as investors await details on the widely anticipated tax increases when UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the budget on November 26. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the currency pair has bottomed out.
With government agencies expected to reopen soon, the blackout on key US economic data will also come to an end. Market participants expect long-delayed reports to roll out over the next week, which might offer the real picture of how the economy held up through the shutdown. In the meantime, speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand later during the North American session and providing some impetus to the GBP/USD pair. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, however, warrants caution for bullish traders.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling in search of a clear directional impetus Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) consolidated its recovery from seven-month lows against the US Dollar (USD), as GBP/USD lacked bullish conviction.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.1600
EUR/USD is now facing increasing selling pressure, abandoning the area of recent daily highs and refocusing on the 1.1600 region amid decent losses for the day. The pair’s correction comes in response to the acceptable bounce in the US Dollar, while traders gear up for upcoming key data releases in the US.
GBP/USD recedes to 1.3140 on USD rebound
GBP/USD remains on the back foot on Friday, retreating to the 1.3140 region on the back of the marked upside impulse in the Greenback. In the meantime, worries about the UK’s fiscal discipline and political stability keep the British Pound under scrutiny, weighing on Cable. Adding to the noise, reports suggested PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have shelved plans to raise income tax rates.
Gold meets some contention just above $4,000
Gold trade with heavy losses, approaching the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on the back of the marked bounce in the US Dollar, higher US Treasury yields across the curve and fading expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP sell-off persists amid low institutional and retail demand
Bitcoin is trading above $97,000 at the time of writing on Friday amid a sticky bearish wave in the broader cryptocurrency market. The sell-off extends to altcoins, with Ethereum and Ripple hovering below $3,200 and $2.30, respectively.
Weekly focus: Looking towards post-shutdown US data
The end of US government shutdown was not enough to drive a lasting recovery in markets' risk appetite, with equity and bond markets weakening towards the end of the week.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).