GBPUSD Forecast and News
GBP/USD attracts some sellers below the mid-1.2700s, all eyes on Fed, BoE rate decision
The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick in the US Dollar above 103.50 and higher US yields provide some support to the major pair. Markets turn cautious ahead of the central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England interest rate decisions.
Latest GBP News
Technical Overview
Since reaching the current year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.2894, the GBP/USD has dived more than 1.30%. if sellers push prices below 1.2700, that could open the door to challenge dynamic support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2685. further downside is seen once cleared, at the 100-DMA at 1.2607, followed by the 200-DMA at 1.2590. On the flip side, if buyers lift the exchange rate above last Friday’s high of 1.2758, further upside is seen at 1.2800.
Fundamental Overview
The Pound Sterling losses steam and treads water against the US Dollar as traders prepare for the announcement of major central banks' monetary policy decisions. The Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are expected to hold rates unchanged, though a ‘hawkish tilt’ of the Fed might weigh on Sterling; the GBP/USD trades at 1.2727, barely down 0.04%.
Sterling awaits Fed and BoE decisions, as UK inflation could set the tone
This week, the US economic docket will feature housing data on the first two days of the week. Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) revealed that homebuilders' confidence rose in March to its highest level since July 2023, as mortgage rates dip, on expectations that the Fed might begin to ease policy. The NAHB Market Index came at 51, up from 48 in February.
Across the pond, UK inflation is due on Wednesday, a day ahead of the BoE’s decision. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is expected to dip from 4% to 3.5% YoY, while core figures are estimated at 4.6% YoY, down from 5.1%.
If UK inflation cools as estimated, that could be negative for Cable, which would likely be under pressure later on Wednesday as the Fed announced its decision and updated its projections. The data could influence Thursday’s BoE decision and tilt the UK’s central bank slightly dovish.
On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected inflation in Britain could underpin the GBP/USD higher, as the BoE would adhere to the mantra of keeping rates “higher for longer.”
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBPUSD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling loses shine after hitting seven-month highs Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gave into the US Dollar (USD) resurgence, as GBP/USD registered a sharp correction from seven-month highs of 1.2894 reached a week ago.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains under pressure above the mid-1.0800s, Fed rate decision eyed
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight, with no change in rates expected.
GBP/USD attracts some sellers below the mid-1.2700s, all eyes on Fed, BoE rate decision
The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick in the US Dollar above 103.50 and higher US yields provide some support to the major pair. Markets turn cautious ahead of the central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England interest rate decisions.
USD/JPY advances toward 149.50 ahead of crucial BoJ policy decision
USD/JPY is rising toward 149.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, picking up fresh bids. Traders keenly await the highly-anticipated Bank of Japan policy decision. The BoJ's outlook on the negative interest rate policy and the Yield Curve Control (YCC) will play a key role in influencing the Japanese Yen.
Gold stays afloat despite high US yields as traders focus on Fed policy
Gold sees a modest increase, as investors watch this week's central bank meetings. Focus remains on the Federal Reserve, where a hawkish stance could potentially impact XAU/USD price while bolstering the US Dollar.
WTI climbs further beyond $81.00/barrel mark, hits fresh YTD peak amid supply concerns
WTI prolongs its upward trajectory on Monday and climbs to a fresh YTD peak. Concerns about tightening global supply continue to benefit the commodity. Hawkish Fed expectations might keep a lid on any further appreciating move.
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GBPUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBPUSD move this year? Our experts make a GBPUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 GBPUSD forecast!
2024 GBPUSD FORECAST
In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes there are plenty of unknowns and looming uncertainties that make it difficult to convincingly predict the course of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar (USD) in the year ahead. On both sides of the Atlantic, increased odds of a recession, a dovish pivot in the monetary policies and general elections are foreseen as the key factors driving the GBP/USD price action next year, barring any unprecedented geopolitical risks. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride in 2023 but the Pound Sterling managed to preserve the recovery gains seen in the first half of the year to a 15-month high of 1.3142.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR GBPUSD
BoE policymakers continue to push back against expectations of rate cuts next year. However, deteriorating economic performance prompted money markets to begin pricing in four 25 bps rate cuts starting from the summer, anticipating the key rate to be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024. The first cut is expected as early as June, to 5.0%.
Even though the Bank of England largely shrugged off a 0.3% contraction in GDP for October, the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a 2024 national election remains high.
A general election is expected next year in the US and the UK, which could fuel intense volatility around the GBP/USD pair. Amidst looming inflation and growth concerns, the political developments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be closely followed.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBPUSD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About GBPUSD
The GBPUSD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.