GBPUSD Forecast and News


GBP/USD fails to recover despite accelerated UK vaccine campaign

GBP/USD remains below 1.36, shrugging off the expansion of Britain's vaccination campaign. Post-Brexit talks on financial services continue while tension is mounting ahead of US President-elect Biden's inauguration. 

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Technical Overview

Pound/dollar has dropped below the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart, and also suffers from downside momentum. However, it is still holding above the 200 SMA – which is just around 1.35 – and the Relative Strength Index is touching 30. Oversold conditions indicate a bounce is coming. 

Support below 1.35 awaits at 1.3455, the 2020 trough, followed by 1.33, a stepping stone on the way up in late December. 

Some resistance is at 1.3545, which was a cushion early in the year. It is followed by 1.3610, a support line from last week, and then by 1.3675 and 1.37.

GBP/USD Price Forecast 2021: Cable braces for calendar comeback amid three exits


Fundamental Overview

The greenback is shining on Blue Monday – investors continue shifting funds to the dollar, following downbeat US data last week. The fall of 1.4% in Retail Sales was the latest factor causing fear about both America's economy and the global one. After long days in which the dollar moved to the tune of Treasury yields, it began responding to concerns about the impact of the current slowdown. 

GBP/USD has been struggling, falling by nearly 200 pips from the highs near 1.37. However, there are several reasons to expect an upswing in the currency pair – driven by forces on both sides of the pond. 

Starting from the US – which is on holiday on Monday – the main event is the inauguration of Joe Biden as President. The new Commander-in-Chief is set to push through his $1.9 trillion stimulus program and a plethora of Executive Orders that would also promote growth. Fears of violence by pro-Trump supporters may be exaggerated, as seen by low participation in protests over the weekend. 

Another US impetus comes from the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell put an end to speculation about an early tapering of bond buys – and the Fed may even go further with expanding its program. That would also weigh on the greenback.

In the UK, the vaccination campaign is getting another shot in the arm, with those over 70 being asked to get their jabs. Over 6% of Brits have received at least one dose, the highest in the Western world. 

Source: OurWorldInData

Another reason for optimism is the gradual descent in COVID-19 cases, which is showing that the lockdown is beating the effect of the new, contagious variants. 

Overall, there is room for upside in cable.



SPECIAL WEEKLY GBPUSD FORECAST

Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Resuming the rally toward 1.40? Biden may compound Bailey, vaccines eyed

"Controversial" is what Bank England Governor Andrew Bailey called negative interest rates – providing sterling ammunition to fight dollar strength. Both the US and the UK are ahead in vaccination, which remains critical and competes for influence with President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. 

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD hovers around one-month low amid cautious markets

EUR/USD has been edging lower toward 1.2050, consolidating Friday's losses as the market mood is mixed. Upbeat Chinese GDP and US stimulus are cheering markets while Italy's political crisis and the depressing coronavirus picture is weighing on sentiment. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD fails to recover despite accelerated UK vaccine campaign

GBP/USD remains below 1.36, shrugging off the expansion of Britain's vaccination campaign. Post-Brexit talks on financial services continue while tension is mounting ahead of US President-elect Biden's inauguration. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bulls holding key support, upside bias persists

USD/JPY bulls are lining up and awaiting bullish environment and break of 4-hour resistance. USD/JPY has corrected a significant portion of the medium-term bull trend and would now be expected to move higher. Market correlations add conviction to the upside bias.

USD/JPY News

Gold struggles to capitalize on intraday bounce, up little around $1930-32

Gold struggled to capitalize on its goodish intraday bounce of nearly $40 and was last seen trading with modest gains, around the $1830-32 region.

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WTI within a tight range, clings to gains above $52.00

Prices of the WTI are up smalls at the beginning of the week, managing to regain ground lost following earlier lows in the $51.70 area per barrel.

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GBPUSD YEARLY FORECAST

How could GBPUSD move this year? Our experts make a GBPUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 GBPUSD forecast!

2021 GBPUSD FORECAST

In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2021, our dedicated contributors expect a continuation of the bullish trend during the year. By the end of 2020, the average price for the pair is 1.3733. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the GBPUSD (Pound US Dollar) was 1.3587 (on 17/12/20), and the minimum, 1.1488 (on 19/03/20).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR GBPUSD

Number one political event in 2021 for the pound to US dollar pair is still being Brexit. Trump, Biden's new government and covid will be key too. These clouds are set to clear at various paces, making way for rapid changes and new challenges. Economic figures will likely be the arbiter of Brexit dampening effect, the UK’s high readiness for receiving the vaccine and other factors. The changing relationship between governments and central banks will likely be in focus.


Influential Institutions & People for the GBPUSD

The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Bank of England (BoE)

The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Andrew Bailey

Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About GBPUSD

The GBPUSD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.

Pound Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, this pair has been suffering some turbulence due to risk related with the abandonment process from the European Union.

Related pairs

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.