GBPUSD Forecast and News


GBP/USD holds on to daily highs near 1.3800

The broad dollar’s weakness helps GBP/USD recover some ground, although the pound is among the worst performers. Britain's successful vaccination campaign supports sterling.

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Technical Overview

The GBP/USD pair has managed to post a daily advance, although it is still unable to storm through the 1.3800 level. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair ended the day above a bearish 100 SMA, while the 20 SMA advances below it. However, the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels while the RSI is directionless around 54. Overall, the risk seems skewed to the upside, but the pair needs to clear the immediate resistance level at 1.3815 to have better chances of rising.

 Support levels: 1.3750 1.3700 1.3665

Resistance levels: 1.3815 1.3860 1.3905


Fundamental Overview

There was no particular catalyst behind such a decline but persistent concerns surrounding the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. The UK is considering not using it in people under 30 years, which may delay the country’s reopening plans. Additionally, soft GBP figures released on Tuesday supported the idea of a slower economic comeback in the country.

Broad dollar’s weakness saved the day for GBP/USD, which bounced back during the American afternoon to settle a handful of pips below the 1.3800 threshold. The UK won’t publish relevant macroeconomic data this Thursday.



SPECIAL WEEKLY GBPUSD FORECAST

Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is the correction over? US consumer, vaccines hold keys

The dollar has won the "ugly contest" with the pound – profit-taking and vaccine issues have weighed on the pound more than Fed-related vulnerability has hurt the greenback. 

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Big Picture

GBPUSD Bullish Themes

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GBP/USD holds on to daily highs near 1.3800

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GBPUSD YEARLY FORECAST

How could GBPUSD move this year? Our experts make a GBPUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 GBPUSD forecast!

2021 GBPUSD FORECAST

In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2021, our dedicated contributors expect a continuation of the bullish trend during the year. By the end of 2020, the average price for the pair is 1.3733. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the GBPUSD (Pound US Dollar) was 1.3587 (on 17/12/20), and the minimum, 1.1488 (on 19/03/20).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR GBPUSD

Number one political event in 2021 for the pound to US dollar pair is still being Brexit. Trump, Biden's new government and covid will be key too. These clouds are set to clear at various paces, making way for rapid changes and new challenges. Economic figures will likely be the arbiter of Brexit dampening effect, the UK’s high readiness for receiving the vaccine and other factors. The changing relationship between governments and central banks will likely be in focus.


Influential Institutions & People for the GBPUSD

The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Bank of England (BoE)

The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Andrew Bailey

Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS

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About GBPUSD

The GBPUSD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.

Pound Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.

Related pairs

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.