GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
GBP/USD holds slightly above 1.2880, where the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) are located. In case this support level fails, 1.2830 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.2800-1.2790 (psychological level, 200-period SMA) could be seen as next bearish targets.
On the upside, 1.2900 (20-period SMA, psychological level, static level) aligns as immediate resistance ahead of 1.2940-1.2950 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 50-period SMA).
Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction and closed virtually unchanged on Wednesday. As safe-haven flows dominate the financial markets on Thursday, the pair struggles to gain traction and trades slightly below 1.2900.
Investors grow increasingly concerned over a gloomy economic outlook as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly loosened its policy for the second time this week. Following the decision to lower the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates by 10 basis points earlier in the week, the PBoC announced on Thursday that it cut the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate from 2.50% to 2.30%.
Reflecting the risk-averse market atmosphere, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is down nearly 1% in the European session. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were last seen losing 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter. Markets expect the US' GDP to expand at an annual rate of 2% following the 1.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. In case the GDP reading arrives below analysts' estimates, the USD could have a hard time finding demand in the early American session. Nevertheless, GBP/USD's upside is likely to remain capped if Wall Street's main indexes open in the red and stretch lower.
The US economic docket will also feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which is forecast to decline to 238,000 from 243,000 last week.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling to focus on Fed-BoE policy divergence Premium
The Pound Sterling stretched its corrective downside from yearly highs against the US Dollar, sending GBP/USD back under 1.2900 – the lowest level in over a week.
GBP/USD Big Picture
GBP/USD Bullish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
USD/JPY hovers near 154.00, reverses Tokyo CPI-led slide
USD/JPY is consolidating its rebound near 154.00, having reversed the Tokyo CPI data-led slide to 153.40. The pair stays volatile, as the BoJ-Fed policy divergence remains in play while markets reposition ahead of the top-tier US PCE inflation data due later on Friday.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
WTI hovers around $78.00, steadies ahead of US PCE inflation
WTI Oil price holds mild losses, possibly driven by better-than-expected US economic data. The WTI price hovers around $78.00 per barrel during early European hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices are set for a third consecutive week of decline, primarily due to sluggish demand in China, the world's largest crude importer.
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GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 GBP/USD forecast!
2024 GBP/USD FORECAST
In the GBP/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes there are plenty of unknowns and looming uncertainties that make it difficult to convincingly predict the course of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar (USD) in the year ahead. On both sides of the Atlantic, increased odds of a recession, a dovish pivot in the monetary policies and general elections are foreseen as the key factors driving the GBP/USD price action next year, barring any unprecedented geopolitical risks. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride in 2023 but the Pound Sterling managed to preserve the recovery gains seen in the first half of the year to a 15-month high of 1.3142.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR GBP/USD
BoE policymakers continue to push back against expectations of rate cuts next year. However, deteriorating economic performance prompted money markets to begin pricing in four 25 bps rate cuts starting from the summer, anticipating the key rate to be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024. The first cut is expected as early as June, to 5.0%.
Even though the Bank of England largely shrugged off a 0.3% contraction in GDP for October, the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a 2024 national election remains high.
A general election is expected next year in the US and the UK, which could fuel intense volatility around the GBP/USD pair. Amidst looming inflation and growth concerns, the political developments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be closely followed.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound / Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Sterling - US Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.