GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD flattens ahead of UK Retail Sales
GBP/USD treaded water on Thursday, marking in a tight circle just north of the 1.3400 handle as global market sentiment suffers knock-on effects from a recent bout of worry that shot through Treasury yields this week. Investors are broadly focusing on the United States’ (US) mounting debt problems, which are poised to get a fresh injection (in the wrong direction) as President Donald Trump’s deficit-swelling “big, beautiful” tax and budget bill grinds its way through Congress.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
Overall, the Pound Sterling has been on a tear in 2025, rising 11.3% bottom-to-top from mid-January’s multi-month bottoms at the 1.2100 handle. Cable has entirely reversed losses through the last quarter of 2024, rising to multi-year highs near 1.3450 this week.
In the near-term, bullish momentum has drained out of the GBP/USD chart; intraday price action has been caught in a tight consolidation pattern, and although the pair appears poised for a bullish breakout, there may not be enough bidding powder remaining in the keg to muscle Cable prices back above 1.3440 before intraday prices fall back to the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3355.
Fundamental Overview
United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales lie ahead as the final key data release this week. UK Retail Sales in April are expected to show a third consecutive monthly decline, with median market forecasts prepped for a slide to 0.2% MoM from March’s 0.4%. Annualized Retail Sales are forecast to jump to 4.5% YoY from 2.6%, but Pound Sterling traders will be keeping a closer eye on the slowdown at the front end of the curve.
Markets on both sides of the Pacific will be wrapping the trading week up on Friday heading into a long weekend. Banks, brokers, and exchanges will be dark on Monday with dual holidays: the Spring Break Holiday in the UK, and Memorial Day in the US. Next week’s economic calendar is also notably dry on the Pound Sterling side, leaving Cable traders at the mercy of any shifts in broader market sentiment.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling consolidates before the next leg higher Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) regained its footing against the US Dollar (USD) after the GBP/USD pair exhibited strong two-way price movements within a 150-pip range during the week.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD: Bullish attempts lack colour
EUR/USD reversed three consecutive daily advances, returning to the 1.1250 zone following weekly peaks in the 1.1360-1.1370 band. The correction in spot came in response to the resurgence of the bid bias in the US Dollar, particularly underpinned by better-than-expected US business activity measures.
GBP/USD flattens ahead of UK Retail Sales
GBP/USD treaded water on Thursday, marking in a tight circle just north of the 1.3400 handle as global market sentiment suffers knock-on effects from a recent bout of worry that shot through Treasury yields this week. Investors are broadly focusing on the United States’ (US) mounting debt problems, which are poised to get a fresh injection (in the wrong direction) as President Donald Trump’s deficit-swelling “big, beautiful” tax and budget bill grinds its way through Congress.
USD/JPY ticks lower as Japan’s strong inflation print lifts BoJ rate hike bets
USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday following the release of hot consumer inflation figures from Japan, which keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the BoJ. Moreover, trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks underpin the JPY and weigh on the currency pair amid the lack of follow-through USD buying.
Gold trades with mild positive bias below two-week top set on Thursday
Gold price edges higher following the previous day's pullback from a two-week high amid a combination of supporting factors. Concerns about the US economic growth and fiscal health, along with renewed US-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks, benefit the XAU/USD's safe-haven status. Moreover, subdued USD price action and Fed rate cut bets support the non-yielding yellow metal.
WTI declines to below $61.00 on potential OPEC+ output hike
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.75 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges lower amid concerns that global supply could outpace demand growth.
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GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website , on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).