EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD struggles to gain traction, trades near 1.0800
EUR/USD finds it difficult to gather recovery momentum and trades near 1.0800 on Tuesday as the US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere. ECB President Lagarde's cautious remarks about inflation outlook helps the pair limit its losses.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that it trades near its daily low and is unchanged on a daily basis, which is technically bearish. The pair keeps developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly south above directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack clear directional strength and consolidate within negative levels.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, technical readings support a bearish breakout. A bearish 20 SMA keeps leading the way south by offering dynamic resistance, currently at around 1.0840. The longer moving averages gain downward momentum far above the shorter one, in line with the persistent selling interest. Finally, technical indicators have resumed their slumps within negative levels, also supporting another leg lower.
Support levels: 1.0805 1.0770 1.0735
Resistance levels: 1.0840 1.0880 1.0920
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair bottomed at 1.0810 on Monday, recovering just modestly on Tuesday before resuming its slide ahead of Wall Street’s opening. Government bonds’ sell-off keeps leading the way across financial markets, backing the US Dollar against its major rivals. Pullbacks are limited given the dominant dismal mood reflected in the poor performance of global equities.
Markets are concerned about the upcoming US election and a potential victory from former President Donald Trump, as investors weigh the potential impact of Trump's fiscal and foreign policies on future interest rates and inflation. Persistent tensions between Israel and its neighbouring countries also undermine the mood.
Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, except for a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Lagarde is due to participate in a panel discussion titled "The Future of Cross-Border Payments: Faster Safer Together – Safe and Inclusive Fast Payments Across Borders" at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group.
Later in the day, the United States (US) will offer the October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, while a couple of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will hit the wires and may or may not provide clues on future Fed actions.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: European growth under scrutiny after ECB’s decision Premium
The EUR/USD pair bottomed at 1.0810 on Thursday, its lowest since early August, closing for the third straight week in the red a handful of pips above the level. On the one hand, the US Dollar benefited from a risk-averse environment and upbeat US macroeconomic data.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD struggles to gain traction, trades near 1.0800
EUR/USD finds it difficult to gather recovery momentum and trades near 1.0800 on Tuesday as the US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere. ECB President Lagarde's cautious remarks about inflation outlook helps the pair limit its losses.
GBP/USD extends slide after failing to reclaim 1.3000
GBP/USD loses its traction and trades in negative territory after failing to stabilize above 1.3000 earlier in the day. The souring market mood doesn't allow the pair to stage a decisive rebound as the market focus remains on geopolitics and central bank speak.
Japanese Yen recovers a bit against USD, any meaningful upside remains elusive
The Japanese Yen continues to be undermined by the uncertainty over the BoJ's rate-hike plans. Rising US bond yields turn out to be another factor that is weighing on the lower-yielding JPY. Intervention fears and a softer risk tone limit losses for the JPY, capping the upside for USD/JPY.
Gold continues uptrend toward $2,750 as Middle East conflict rages on
Gold continues its uptrend and trades near the record-high it set at $2,740 as the conflict in the Middle East remains unabated, while markets assess the changing outlook for global interest rates. Technically, XAU/USD trends higher as a multi-time-frame uptrend extends.
Crude Oil pops over $70.00 despite markets being bearish
Crude Oil struggles to uphold $70.00 for more than day, with more downside expected. Traders expect longer sluggish demand as markets reprice Fed rate cut prospects. The US Dollar Index broke above 103.80 and tested 104.00, primed for more upside.
Majors
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Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.