EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD: Not out of the woods yet, Powell’s speech eyed for fresh impetus

The EUR/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday uptick to weekly tops, or find acceptance above the 1.2100 mark and came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh impetus.

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Technical Overview

EUR/USD drops to 1.2050 while printing 0.10% intraday losses amid Thursday’s Asian session. The major currency pair marked an uptick to 1.2113 the previous day before taking a U-turn below 200-HMA and breaking down a horizontal hurdle, earlier support, established since February 18.

The following losses extended below 100-HMA wherein the bearish MACD signals add to the EUR/USD sellers’ hopes.


Fundamental Overview

The EUR/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday uptick to weekly tops, or find acceptance above the 1.2100 mark and came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. A sudden pickup in the US Treasury bond yields provided a strong lift to the greenback, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that exerted some downward pressure on the major. The US bond market has been reacting strongly to the prospects for a relatively faster US economic recovery, which has been fueling expectations for an uptick in inflation and raised doubts that the Fed would retail ultra-low interest rates for a longer period. The reflation trade was driven by the impressive pace of COVID-19 vaccinations and the progress on a massive US fiscal spending plan.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Dollar surfing yields’ wave

Risk-related sentiment and reflation trade set the market’s tone this week and will likely keep driving currencies during the next one. The EUR/USD pair peaked on Thursday at 1.2242, its highest level in over a month, but trimmed gains on Friday to finish a second consecutive week unchanged just above the 1.2100 level.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD: Not out of the woods yet, Powell’s speech eyed for fresh impetus

The EUR/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday uptick to weekly tops, or find acceptance above the 1.2100 mark and came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh impetus.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD steadies around 1.3950 as bond bears catch a breather ahead of Powell

GBP/USD picks up bids around 1.3950 following a bounce from 1.3921. UK unilaterally extended NI border checks, EU vows legal response. US Treasury yields regain upside momentum, driving the US dollar higher. Fed’s Powell will be watched to confirm reflation fears.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bulls battle seven-week-old hurdle around 107.00

USD/JPY remains positive for the second consecutive day while attacking the July 2020 peak, market the previous day, during early Thursday. However, the upper line of a rising trend channel formation since January 11 joins RSI and MACD to probe the bulls around 107.087, up 0.10% intraday.

USD/JPY News

Gold’s fate hinges on Treasury yields, Powell’s speech

Gold struggles with its rebound as DXY firms up with Treasury yields. XAU/USD reached fresh nine-month lows at $1702 amid a renewed uptick in the US Treasury yields, as the bond market turmoil resumed on Wednesday. 

Gold News

WTI holds the bid in Asia, testing the $61 area

WTI rallied from a low of $59.27 to a high of $61.97 on the day yesterday as US fuel stocks dropped and the market weighs OPEC+ and the implications of a deal rollover. The expectations OPEC+ producers might decide against increasing output when they meet this week lifted the black gold. Russia is also considering rolling over production cuts from March into April rather than raising output.

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EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2021

In the EURUSD Forecast Price 2021, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2020, the average outlook for the pair was 1,2234. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2282 (on 17/12/20), and the minimum, 1.0645 (on 19/03/20).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR EURUSD

A pandemic disrupted financial markets and the global economy in 2020, and the greenback is the overall loser. The US management of the pandemic resulted in 18 million people infected and roughly 325,000 deaths. It also cost Trump's government, who lost the re-election to Democrat rival Joe Biden. Social distancing, face-masks and remote working are part of a new normal that will likely continue through 2021. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.