EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD recovers above 1.0400, looks to post weekly gains
EUR/USD regained its traction after dropping toward 1.0350 in the early American session and climbed above 1.0400. Trading conditions remain thin on Black Friday and the pair remains on track to end the week in positive territory.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
EUR/USD is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session after resurfacing from the critical support of 1.0382. The Euro pair is oscillating above the round-level support of 1.0400. The major is awaiting a potential trigger for a fresh impetus as the market mood is extremely quiet amid the holiday in the United States on account of Thanksgiving Day.
EUR/USD is playing with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0389 on a daily scale. The corrective move in the asset after printing a high of 1.0482 on November 15 to near 1.0226 has been supported by the upward-sloping trendline placed from November low at 0.9730. Going forward, potential resistances are plotted from June 27 high at 1.0615, and May 30 high at 1.0787.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is active.
Fundamental Overview
Investors are punishing the US Dollar as Fed policymakers have vouched for a slowdown in the interest rate hike. Fed policymakers believe that headline United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) has displayed signs of severe exhaustion, therefore, it would be optimal to go on a light note on policy rates. However, the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices has not shown a significant drop.
Also, US Durable Goods Orders released this week remained significantly higher at 1% than expectations and former print. This could add fuel to the core inflation figures. So, choosing the option of deceleration in the interest rates could be a double-edged sword for the market.
On the Eurozone front, investors are keeping an eye on the price cap structure to be introduced for the European gas ahead. Supply chain bottlenecks in the Eurozone have been firing energy prices due to sanctions on Russia. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has warned that the finalization of the ceiling on European gas would force energy traders to stump up an additional $33 bln in margin payments, as reported by Financial Times.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: EU inflation, US employment and China grant a busy week ahead Premium
The EUR/USD pair resumed its advance this past week, settling below the 1.0400 threshold. The USD appreciated on Monday, extending the positive momentum amid worrisome news coming from China.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD recovers above 1.0400, looks to post weekly gains
EUR/USD regained its traction after dropping toward 1.0350 in the early American session and climbed above 1.0400. Trading conditions remain thin on Black Friday and the pair remains on track to end the week in positive territory.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2100 as US Dollar loses strength
GBP/USD managed to stage a recovery toward 1.2100 in the American session on Friday and now looks to register gains for the third straight week. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength as markets remain subdued on Black Friday.
USD/JPY finally breaks free from consolidation
The USD/JPY pair is building a cushion around the immediate support of 138.50 in the early European session. Signs of recovery in the USD Index (DXY) have also propelled the USD/JPY pair marginally.
Gold steadies near $1,750 as US yields retreat
Gold price continues to move sideways at around $1,750 heading into the weekend. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield retreated from the daily high it touched above 3.75% earlier in the day, allowing XAU/USD to erase a portion of its daily losses.
Saudis seek to stabilize oil market, WTI bid
Saudi and Iraqi energy ministers have been reported saying that there is an importance of working within the OPEC+ framework. as a consequence, oil rose in early trade on Friday despite the worries about Chinese demand and expectations due to the increase of covid in the nation.
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Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2022
In the EURUSD 2022 Forecast, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to continue, almost during the Q1 and the Q2 of 2022. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1306. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2328 (on 06/01/21), and the minimum, 1.1200 (on 24/12/21).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR EURUSD
Much water has run under the bridge in 2021. Central bankers from around the world have been cooling down speculation on persistently high inflation, calling in “temporarily,” and forecasting it would slowly stabilize to more suitable levels by 2022. But make no mistake: Hot inflation is the elephant in the room. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year. The coronavirus pandemic that hit the world in March 2020 still goes on and will also be a critical event in 2022, although there’s a better economic perspective.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.