EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD consolidating at lows after mixed US data, Powell

EUR/USD trades near a fresh two-month low of 1.1671 after mixed US Markit PMIs, which anyway indicated economic expansion. Fed speakers highlighted the need for more fiscal stimulus.

Latest EUR News


Technical Overview

The EUR/USD pair ends Wednesday trading below the 1.1700 level, maintaining its bearish bias despite being oversold. The 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator has bounced from oversold readings, but also that it holds well into negative levels. The RSI indicator, in the meantime, consolidates near oversold readings, as the pair develops well below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining a sharp bearish slope below the larger ones. Further declines are to be expected on a break below 1.1660, the immediate support level.

Support levels: 1.1620 1.1580 1.1530

Resistance levels: 1.1685 1.1725 1.1760  


Fundamental Overview

Data released this Wednesday was mixed but showed that economic growth remains sluggish. The preliminary estimates of the Markit PMIs showed that services output n the Union fell into contraction territory, with the EU index printing at   47.6 from 50.5 in August. Manufacturing activity was mixed across the Union,  although the index improved from 51.7 to 53.7. In the US, on the other hand, business activity remained in expansion territory, although services growth was softer than anticipated.

Further fueling dollar’s demand, Wall Street was unable to hold on to pre-opening gains and turned red. Federal Reserve Chair’s Jerome Powell testified again before Congress, and alongside Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that they are studying ways to provide additional support to small businesses without entering into details. As he did on Tuesday, Powell urged for fiscal support.

This Thursday, Germany will publish the IFO Business Climate, foreseen at 93.8 from 92.6 previously. The US will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 18, while Powell and Mnuchin will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Central bankers got off the ring

Another week is coming to an end, and the FX market seems unable to find its way. The EUR/USD pair is poised to finish it little changed around 1.1850, its comfort zone pretty much since September started.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD consolidating at lows after mixed US data, Powell

EUR/USD trades near a fresh two-month low of 1.1671 after mixed US Markit PMIs, which anyway indicated economic expansion. Fed speakers highlighted the need for more fiscal stimulus.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds on to daily gains amid Brexit’s optimism

The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.2750, underpinned by EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier's optimism on a post-Brexit trade deal. UK Business activity remains in expansion territory according to Markit.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: This could be the bulls's last dance in the 105, eyes on 103.50s

USD/JPY is stalling at market structure and bears and looking for opportunity to the downside. Bulls might have some upside to go yet, but the air will be getting thinner in those heights.

USD/JPY News

Gold's potential short-term reprieve if USD pulls back

Gold prices have deteriorated in the US dollar's relentless comeback as investors move away from stocks. The price of the dollar is correlated to gold, so it stands to reason that if the dollar is about to tail off its gains, then gold should find reprieve.

Gold News

WTI flirts with the 200-day SMA below $40.00/bbl ahead of EIA

Prices of the WTI are alternating gains with losses below the key $40.00 mark per barrel on Wednesday.

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Signatures


EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2020

In our EURUSD Forecast Price 2020, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1186. Read more details about the forecast.

From July 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1280 (on 10/08/19), and the minimum, 1.0896 (on 30/09/19).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EURUSD

2020 should be the year of change or at least, the year when things begin to change. The recent trade deals hint some relief in the trade war front, hence in growth’s concerns. Economic developments and central banks’ decisions will motorize action throughout the first half of the year. In November 2020, the US will go to the polls. That grants a shaky year-end in the financial world. Will Trump be able to retain its chair?.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.