EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD trims intraday gains, holds on to higher ground

The EUR/USD pair topped at 1.2177 before retreating, as the greenback remains the weakest currency across the FX board. A scarce macroeconomic calendar kept major pairs within limited intraday ranges.

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Technical Overview

The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.2160 and seems poised to extend its advance despite overbought conditions in the near-term. From a technical point of view, the pair retains its bullish stance, although a corrective decline is not out of the table. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA keeps advancing and that it is about to cross above the 100 SMA, both well below the current level. Technical indicators have turned flat well into positive ground, suggesting that any possible slide could be short-lived. The former high at 1.2149 is the immediate support level, with a break below it exposing the 1.2100/10 region.

Support levels: 1.2150 1.2110 1.2070

Resistance levels: 1.2190 1.2240 1.2285


Fundamental Overview

The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.2176, its highest since February, and trades nearby ahead of Wall Street’s opening. Speculative interest resumed selling the greenback with the weekly opening, still pricing in the terrible US employment report published on Friday. This week, the country will release April inflation figures, and the annual Consumer Price Index is expected at 3.6%, well above average. US Federal Reserve officials, however, have clarified multiple times that such a jump will likely be temporal and won’t trigger a reaction from policymakers.

The EU published May Sentix Investor Confidence, which surged to 21 from 13.1, largely surpassing the expected 14. The US calendar will be quite light, as the country will only publish the ISM-NY Business Conditions Index, foreseen at 29.5 from 37.2 previously.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Awful Nonfarm Payrolls back Fed’s “lower for longer” rates

Mixed US data and cooling expectations for higher rates in the country fueled risk-appetite heading into the weekend. EUR/USD trades around 1.2140, recovering all of the previous week´s losses and nearing its monthly high at 1.2150.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD trims intraday gains, holds on to higher ground

The EUR/USD pair topped at 1.2177 before retreating, as the greenback remains the weakest currency across the FX board. A scarce macroeconomic calendar kept major pairs within limited intraday ranges.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD soars to 1.41 after UK elections, US Nonfarm Payrolls

GBP/USD has hit a new three-month high just above 1.41 after the SNP failed to win a majority in Scotland and as the UK is set to extend its reopening. The dollar is still suffering from Friday's weak jobs report.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY Forecast: Bears hold the grip

US Treasury yields set the tone for USD/JPY as stocks struggle for direction. The American dollar is the weakest after terrible employment figures. USD/JPY is at risk of falling further and pierce the 108.00 level.

USD/JPY News

XAU/USD 4-hour support is a hurdle for the bears

The price of gold is trading at $1,836.81 at the time of writing and is up on the day by some 0.30%. The bulls, however, are backing off on what could be profit-taking as the US dollar stabilises within a narrow range on Monday vs a basket of major currencies.  DXY is flat and has stuck to a 90.0420/3390 window.

Gold News

WTI bears step in at the hourly confluences in resistance

WTI bulls are back in town taking on the 10 and 20 hourly EMAs. The US dollar is in the dumps, supporting commodity prices. 

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EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2021

In the EURUSD Forecast Price 2021, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2020, the average outlook for the pair was 1,2234. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2282 (on 17/12/20), and the minimum, 1.0645 (on 19/03/20).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR EURUSD

A pandemic disrupted financial markets and the global economy in 2020, and the greenback is the overall loser. The US management of the pandemic resulted in 18 million people infected and roughly 325,000 deaths. It also cost Trump's government, who lost the re-election to Democrat rival Joe Biden. Social distancing, face-masks and remote working are part of a new normal that will likely continue through 2021. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.