EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD: 61.8% Fib hurdle is again capping gains
The EUR/USD bulls are having a tough time breaching a key Fibonacci hurdle for the fourth straight trading day. That level marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from 1.2011 to 1.1612. The Fibonacci hurdle has been capping upside since Wednesday.
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Technical Overview
The EUR/USD bulls are having a tough time breaching a key Fibonacci hurdle for the fourth straight trading day. That level marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from 1.2011 to 1.1612. The Fibonacci hurdle has been capping upside since Wednesday.
The daily chart relative strength index and the MACD histogram are biased bullish and favor a continuation of the rally from September's low of 1.1612. As such, the pair could find acceptance above the Fibonacci level, exposing the psychological resistance of 1.20. On the downside, 1.1787 - the low of Friday's long-tailed candle - is the level to beat for the bears.
Fundamental Overview
The shared currency found support in mixed growth figures, as Markit published the preliminary estimates of its October PMIs. Services output fell into contraction levels in the Union, with the German Services PMI came in at 48.9 while the EU index plunged to 46.2. Manufacturing activity, however, surprised to the upside, expanding to 58 in Germany from 56.4, and to 54.4 from 53.7 in the EU. US Markit indexes were generally upbeat, as the Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.3 from 53.2, while the services PMI beat expectations by jumping to 56 from 54.6.
Market players ignored record coronavirus contagions in several European countries and governments pledges of further restrictions. Record cases in France, Italy and Spain, among other countries, have resulted in curfews and focused lockdowns. More restrictions will likely be announced in the upcoming days and may finally take their toll on the common currency. Things in the US are no better, as the country reported a record high of 82,668 cases on Saturday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Growth, it’s all about economic growth
The EUR/USD pair finishes the week with gains around 1.1830, at the upper end of its latest range but still unable to define a trend. For the past four months, the pair struggled for direction amid uncertainty about economic growth within the pandemic context, and the upcoming US presidential election.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD: 61.8% Fib hurdle is again capping gains
The EUR/USD bulls are having a tough time breaching a key Fibonacci hurdle for the fourth straight trading day. That level marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from 1.2011 to 1.1612. The Fibonacci hurdle has been capping upside since Wednesday.
GBP/USD: Bulls set on 1.3220
GBP/USD bulls are set on a break to the 1.32 area on a bullish extension following a significant retracement and mean reversion of the prior bullish impulse. Bears might be prudent to wait for a bullish environment.
USD/JPY picks up bid in tandem with US dollar, eyes on 105.00
USD/JPY's recovery from Wednesday's 0.85% decline is picking up pace in Asia, as the US dollar gains its feet amid risk-aversion. The reports that the BOJ will likely cut its growth and price forecasts for the current fiscal year at this week's monetary policy meeting weigh on the yen.
Gold hits 11-day low as dollar gains ground
Gold faced selling pressure on Monday as coronavirus concerns weighed over the risk sentiment and strengthened the haven demand for the US dollar. The dollar index jumped 0.11% to 92.87, as the futures tied to the S&P 500 fell by over 0.30%.
WTI hits three-week lows below $39
WTI hits three-week low, extending the previous week's 3% decline. The daily chart indicators scope for further losses. The daily chart relative strength index now shows an ascending triangle breakdown, a bearish pattern.
Majors
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Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2020
In our EURUSD Forecast Price 2020, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1186. Read more details about the forecast.
From July 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1280 (on 10/08/19), and the minimum, 1.0896 (on 30/09/19).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EURUSD
2020 should be the year of change or at least, the year when things begin to change. The recent trade deals hint some relief in the trade war front, hence in growth’s concerns. Economic developments and central banks’ decisions will motorize action throughout the first half of the year. In November 2020, the US will go to the polls. That grants a shaky year-end in the financial world. Will Trump be able to retain its chair?.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.