EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD: Hovers near 1.2150, Thursday's candle suggests scope for minor pullback

EUR/USD is trading near 1.2150 in Asia, representing a more than 1.5% gain for the week. While the pair ticked higher for the third straight day on Thursday, it created a candle with a long upper wick validating the above-70 or overbought signal on the 14-day RSI.

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Technical Overview

EUR/USD is trading near 1.2150 in Asia, representing a more than 1.5% gain for the week. While the pair ticked higher for the third straight day on Thursday, it created a candle with a long upper wick – a sign of uptrend fatigue – validating the above-70 or overbought signal on the 14-day Relative Strength Index. 

As such, a pullback to the ascending 5- day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at 1.2078, could be in the offing. A violation there would expose the 10-day SMA at 1.991. A close below 1.20 would weaken the immediate bullish case.  On the higher side, resistance is seen at 1.2175 (Thursday's high) and 1.22 (psychological level). 


Fundamental Overview

US data was mixed, although employment-related figures were quite encouraging, boosting Wall Street. The Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 27 improved to 712K, beating expectations. Challenger Job Cuts printed at 64.797K in November, better than the previous 80.666K. The ISM Services PMI, however, contracted to 55.9 in November from 56.6 in the previous month.  

The EU published October Retail Sales, which were upbeat, surging 1.5% MoM and 4.3% YoY. Markit published the final November Services PMIs, with the EU index revised to the upside and the US one confirmed at 58.4. Market players kept looking beyond data, focusing on vaccine hopes and US stimulus chatter.

Germany will release October Factory Orders this Friday, while the US will publish the November Nonfarm Payrolls. The country is expected to have added 481K new positions in the month, below the previous 638K. The unemployment rate, however, is seen improving from 6.9% to 6.8%.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: All spin and no delivery, poised to challenge 1.2000

The EUR/USD pair reached 1.1945 this week, a fresh 2-month high, retaining most of its gains heading into the weekend. The dollar got no love from speculative interest,  while the shared currency advanced despite some tepid macroeconomic figures.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD: Hovers near 1.2150, Thursday's candle suggests scope for minor pullback

EUR/USD is trading near 1.2150 in Asia, representing a more than 1.5% gain for the week. While the pair ticked higher for the third straight day on Thursday, it created a candle with a long upper wick validating the above-70 or overbought signal on the 14-day RSI.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops back from yearly highs at 1.3500 amid Brexit nerves

Brexit nerves have triggered a drop from year-to-date highs reached on Thursday of 1.3500. The pair still closed Thursday FX trade with gains of over 80 pips or 0.6%. Talks apparently went badly on Thursday, with level playing field issues reportedly causing problems.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bearish bias across Monthly, Weekly charts

USD/JPY trapped between daily support and resistance against bearish backdrop. Yen is under pressure across the longer-term time frames and is trending within a weekly channel to the downside.

USD/JPY News

Gold fades upside momentum towards $1,850 amid mixed catalysts

Gold prices ease from $1,842.36 as risk-on dwindles. The yellow metal rose to the nine-day high the previous day as the US dollar weakness, coupled with the market optimism, favored the bulls.

Gold news

WTI bulls ignore downbeat comments from Russia’s Novak, eye $46.00

WTI wavers near the upper end of one-week-old bullish flag. The black gold remains positive on a daily basis while taking rounds to the November month’s high, also the highest since March. Risk-on mood, US dollar weakness favor the commodities, US employment data awaited.

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EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2020 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2020

In our EURUSD Forecast Price 2020, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2019, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1186. Read more details about the forecast.

From July 2019 to Jan 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1280 (on 10/08/19), and the minimum, 1.0896 (on 30/09/19).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2020 FOR EURUSD

2020 should be the year of change or at least, the year when things begin to change. The recent trade deals hint some relief in the trade war front, hence in growth’s concerns. Economic developments and central banks’ decisions will motorize action throughout the first half of the year. In November 2020, the US will go to the polls. That grants a shaky year-end in the financial world. Will Trump be able to retain its chair?.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.