EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD depressed near a fresh weekly low at 1.2065
EUR/USD lost the 1.2100 mark with US inflation data, holding near its daily lows as demand for high-yielding assets receded. The greenback has room to continue rallying.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is trading in the 1.2090 price zone after posting a weekly low of 1.2071 with the news. The near-term picture is bearish, as the 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators accelerated north well into negative levels, without signs of giving up. The pair bounced from a mildly bullish 100 SMA but remains well below the 20 SMA, which lost its bullish strength. Further declines are to be expected on a break below the mentioned daily low.
Support levels: 1.2070 1.2025 1.1980
Resistance levels: 1.2110 1.2150 1.2190
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair fell within range through the first half of the day, as the dollar’s selling paused ahead of the release of US inflation data. The EUR/USD pair traded around 1.2120 ahead of the event, plummeting afterwards as the US annual Consumer Price Index hit 4.2%, higher than the 3.6% expected. The core reading jumped to 3%, also surpassing expectations. Stocks are under pressure, and government bond yields higher, as speculative interest prices in higher chances of monetary policy tightening.
Earlier in the day, Germany published April inflation figures, which showed that the annual CPI was up 2% as expected. Fed’s Vice-chair Clarida will shorty offer a speech and may reinforce the Fed’s stance of being tolerant with inflation upticks.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Awful Nonfarm Payrolls back Fed’s “lower for longer” rates
Mixed US data and cooling expectations for higher rates in the country fueled risk-appetite heading into the weekend. EUR/USD trades around 1.2140, recovering all of the previous week´s losses and nearing its monthly high at 1.2150.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD depressed near a fresh weekly low at 1.2065
EUR/USD lost the 1.2100 mark with US inflation data, holding near its daily lows as demand for high-yielding assets receded. The greenback has room to continue rallying.
GBP/USD extends slump sub-1.4100 as dollar rallies
GBP/USD has extended its decline after US CPI beat estimates with 4.2% while Core CPI came out at 3%. Earlier, UK GDP beat expectations with -1.5%. Volatility is rising.
USD/JPY breaks above 109.50 as US yields keep rising
Yen tumbles amid higher US yields. US Dollar gains momentum during the American session. The USD/JPY rose further and climbed to 109.56, reaching the highest level since May 3. The US dollar is having the best day in more than a month versus the yen and it heads toward the higher daily close in a month.
XAU/USD tests $1,820 as USD capitalizes on US CPI data
The XAU/USD pair fluctuated wildly in the early American session as investors assessed the latest inflation report from the US. After spiking to a daily high of $1,843, the pair reversed its direction and dropped to $1,820 area.
WTI tests $66 after IEA says oil demand recovery will outpace growth in supply
Oil demand recovery will outpace growth in supply,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly oil market report published on Wednesday, adding that the demand recovery forecast assumes the COVID-19 situation in India improves.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2021 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2021
In the EURUSD Forecast Price 2021, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2020, the average outlook for the pair was 1,2234. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2282 (on 17/12/20), and the minimum, 1.0645 (on 19/03/20).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR EURUSD
A pandemic disrupted financial markets and the global economy in 2020, and the greenback is the overall loser. The US management of the pandemic resulted in 18 million people infected and roughly 325,000 deaths. It also cost Trump's government, who lost the re-election to Democrat rival Joe Biden. Social distancing, face-masks and remote working are part of a new normal that will likely continue through 2021. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.