EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD falls as Wall Street turns red
EUR/USD turned bearish as Wall Street gives up and major indexes turn red. The pair trades near a fresh weekly low in the 1.0460 price zone. Earlier in the day, the European Central Bank trimmed interest rates as expected, and the United States published discouraging employment and inflation-related data.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair daily chart shows it posted a lower low and a lower high on a daily basis, in line with the dominant bearish trend. The same chart shows a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps attracting sellers, providing resistance at around 1.0530. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, head firmly south far above the shorter one, also reflecting sellers are in control. Finally, technical indicators offer a mixed picture, with the Momentum indicator advancing modestly above its 100 line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating at around 40.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD seems poised to extend its slide. A mildly bearish 20 SMA converges with a flat 100 SMA at around 1.0530, reinforcing the relevance of the resistance area. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, gains downward traction above the shorter ones. Finally, technical indicators seesaw within negative levels, which is not enough to suggest an upcoming directional move. Overall, EUR/USD is at risk of falling towards the 1.0400 price zone, as demand for high-yielding assets seems well contained by a cautious mood.
Support levels: 1.0460 1.0410 1.0375
Resistance levels: 1.0530 1.0570 1.0625
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair is finishing Thursday little changed at around 1.0500, but not before posting a fresh weekly low of 1.0463 during American trading hours. Speculative interest struggled for clear direction, albeit US Dollar (USD) demand remained strong throughout the day.
The European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed the three main interest rate benchmarks by 25 basis points (bps), each as expected. Also, the ECB Monetary policy statement showed some interesting changes. Policymakers removed the word “restrictive” when discussing monetary policy, adding that the “disinflation process is well on track.” Even further, they noted that “most measures of underlying inflation suggest that it will settle at around 2% target on a sustained basis.”
Finally, President Christine Lagarde offered a press conference in which she sounded confident about inflation reaching policymakers’ target goal in 2025, yet added that risks to growth remained tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation are now two-sided.
The United States (US) released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 6, which increased to 242K, worse than the 220K expected. Additionally, the November Producer Price Index (PPI) came in higher than anticipated, rising 3.4% on a yearly basis against the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.1%.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: ECB decision and US CPI stand out ahead of Fed Premium
The EUR/USD pair posted a weekly high of 1.0629 on Friday but finished the week unchanged around the 1.0570 mark. The Greenback fell following the release of the US NFP report but quickly trimmed losses, pushing the pair back below the 1.0600 mark.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD falls as Wall Street turns red
EUR/USD turned bearish as Wall Street gives up and major indexes turn red. The pair trades near a fresh weekly low in the 1.0460 price zone. Earlier in the day, the European Central Bank trimmed interest rates as expected, and the United States published discouraging employment and inflation-related data.
GBP/USD dips below 1.2700 as US Dollar surges on risk aversion
GBP/USD finally broke below the 1.2700 mark in the American session, as sentiment shifted to the worse, following dismal US employment and inflation-related data. The poor performance of stocks and an uptick in Treasury yields boost demand for the US Dollar.
USD/JPY rally halts at 152.90 awaiting more data from the US
The recovery of the USD/JPY pair reverses with bulls halted at 152.90. Dovish comments from BoJ officials and strong US data are supporting the pair. The immediate bias remains positive, with bears capped above 152.00.
Gold could extend its corrective slide
XAU/USD fell towards $2,680 and remains under pressure as investors diggest US figures and the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. Inflation in the US at wholesale levels rose by more than anticipated in November, according to the latest Producer Price Index release.
Crude Oil sees rally halts on the back of OPEC+ report dragging Oil prices lower
Oil prices are for failing to hold on this week's winning streak.The EIA report from Wednesday showed Cushing Crude Supply fell to a seven-year low. The US Dollar Index trades stronger after the European Central Bank interest-rate decision failed to convince markets.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.