EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD climbs to fresh daily highs above 1.0700
EUR/USD has regained its traction and climbed to a fresh daily high above 1.0720 in the second half of the day on Thursday. Despite the upbeat ADP employment data, the downward revision to Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter triggered a fresh leg of USD selloff, boosting the pair.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair trades around the 1.0700 level, not far below an early high of 1.0714. The chances of a steeper recovery are limited, according to the daily chart. The pair keeps trading well below its 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter aiming to cross below the longer one in the 1.0810/20 price zone. At the same time, technical indicators remain within negative levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating near oversold readings and the Momentum gaining ground but below its 100 level.
The bullish potential also seems limited in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that EUR/USD battles to advance above a bearish 20 SMA as the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes far above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators have resumed their advances but stand within neutral levels. Bulls still need to regain the 1.0745 level to retake control of the pair.
Support levels: 1.0660 1.0620 1.0575
Resistance levels: 1.0745 1.0790 1.0825
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar lost its strength, resulting in EUR/USD recovering the 1.0700 threshold. The Greenback turned south after the United States (US) House of Representatives passed the bill to suspend the debt limit. As a result, the market sentiment improved, with most Asian and European indices trading in the green.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde offered a conference at the German Savings Banks and delivered some hawkish comments related to monetary policy. Lagarde noted that inflation is too high and is set to remain so for too long, saying there is no clear evidence underlying inflation has peaked. She then added that policymakers still have ground to cover on rates. Her hawkish words were no surprise but helped EUR/USD to preserve its strength.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone released the preliminary estimate of the May Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which rose by 6.1% YoY, decreasing from 7% in the previous month. The core annualized reading printed at 5.3%, while in the month, inflation remained pat.
Across the pond, the focus is on employment. The US published Challenger Job Cuts, showing that US-based employers announced 80,089 cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced in the previous month. Also, the ADP survey showed the private sector added 278K new job positions, much higher than the 170K expected, adding signs of a still strong labour market. Finally, Initial Jobless Claims rose by 232K in the week ended May 26, while Q1 Nonfarm Productivity improved to -2.1%. On a positive note, Unit Labor Costs in the three-month to March were up by 4.2%, slowing from the previous 6.3%.
US employment-related figures spurred temporal US Dollar demand, although the American currency remains on the losing side.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: A debt ceiling deal can save bulls Premium
The EUR/USD pair fell for a third consecutive week and flirts with the 1.0700 level ahead of the close, as demand for the US Dollar extended into the weekly close.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD climbs to fresh daily highs above 1.0700
EUR/USD has regained its traction and climbed to a fresh daily high above 1.0720 in the second half of the day on Thursday. Despite the upbeat ADP employment data, the downward revision to Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter triggered a fresh leg of USD selloff, boosting the pair.
GBP/USD tests 1.2500 as USD continues to weaken
GBP/USD has extended its daily rebound toward 1.2500 in the American session. The US Dollar continues to weaken against its rivals as soft wage inflation data feed into expectations for a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes at the upcoming policy meeting.
USD/JPY faces rejection near 140.00 mark, hangs near one-week low amid softer USD
The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on its intraday positive move and meets with a fresh supply in the vicinity of the 140.00 psychological mark on Thursday. Spot prices retreat to the lower end of the daily range and trade just above the 139.00 mark, or a one-week low touched earlier today, despite the better-than-expected US ADP report.
Gold climbs above $1,970 as US yields extend slide
Gold price climbed above $1,970 in the American session on Thursday. Following weak wage inflation data from the US, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 1% on the day below 3.6%, fuelling XAU/USD's daily rally.
Oil price recovers after House votes through debt-ceiling bill, inventories cap gains
Oil price trades flat in the lower $68s (Brent in the mid $72s) on Thursday after making a small recovery from just above $67 reached the day before when sellers dominated the market. The rebound initially came after the US debt-ceiling extension bill was successfully voted through the House of Representatives, late on Wednesday evening.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2023
In the EURUSD 2023 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, expects the EUR/USD long-term corrective advance will likely continue in the first quarter of 2023. By the end of the year 2022, the average outlook for the pair was 1.0538. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1455 (on 06/02/22), and the minimum, 0.9589 (on 27/09/22).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR EURUSD
Heading into 2023, there is uncertainty over central banks succeeding in guiding economies into a soft landing. That is, controlling inflation without triggering recessions. As said, price pressures are still too high, with inflation running over three times faster than tolerable. The European energy crisis could easily turn into a global one next winter, affecting both Euro and US Dollar. The worldwide economic growth is expected to keep slowing, which could also be a decisive key driver for the pair during the 2023.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.