EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD trades quietly below 1.1700 as investors await fresh cues on US-EU trade talks
The EUR/USD pair trades calmly around 1.1670 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair oscillates in a limited range, with investors awaiting fresh development on trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
Resistance lines up at the 2025 high of 1.1830 (July 1), ahead of the June peak at 1.1852 (June 2018).
On the flip side, interim contention sits at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1457, prior to the weekly trough at 1.1210 (May 29) and the May base at 1.1064 (May 12), all preceding the key 1.1000 threshold.
Indicators of momentum still point to a strong Euro. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 55, which means the market is bullish. The Average Directional Index (ADX) hovers around 28, indicating quite a healthy trend.
Medium-term outlook
The view that the Fed might reduce its rates later in the year vs. a potential pause by the ECB could lend some fresh legs to the European currency and propel EUR/USD higher. However, ongoing trade tensions and the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff proposals pose significant risks that could prevent prices from rising further in the near future.
Fundamental Overview
The Euro (EUR) dropped to its lowest point against the US Dollar (USD) in three weeks in quite a bearish start to the week, motivating EUR/USD to trade in the red for the fourth day in a row and revisit the area of 1.1650.
Trade jitters reignite
The White House said it would wait until August 1 to look at tariffs again.
However, the recent threats of 30% levies on US imports from the European Union added to last week’s announcements of tariffs on Japan and South Korea by 25% and on copper by 50%, all contributing to the resurgence of a potential trade war.
Central banks diverge
The Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June meeting showed that some members wanted to lower interest rates right away, while others wanted to wait and see how tariffs may affect inflation.
Futures markets are still expecting some easing later this year, but only if the price pressures don't last long.
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its Deposit Facility Rate to 2.00% in early June. President Christine Lagarde said that any move would be contingent on compelling evidence of weak external demand, implying that there is little interest in decreasing rates in the near future.
Bullish bets on the EUR pile up
According to CFTC data through July 8, speculative net longs in the single currency have reached over 120.5K contracts, the biggest level since December 2023, while institutional traders have increased their net shorts to over 177K contracts, or multi-month highs. During that period, open interest has also gone up for the third week in a row, this time to around 806K contracts.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US President Trump’s rage unleashes risk aversion Premium
The EUR/USD pair edged lower in the past week, settling a handful of pips below the 1.1700 mark, further retreating from the multi-year peak posted early in July at 1.1830. Financial markets kept revolving around the United States (US) President Donald Trump's targets.
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trades quietly below 1.1700 as investors await fresh cues on US-EU trade talks
The EUR/USD pair trades calmly around 1.1670 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair oscillates in a limited range, with investors awaiting fresh development on trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union.
GBP/USD: Struggles near multi-week low, around 1.3430 ahead of US CPI
The GBP/USD pair consolidates near the 1.3430-1.3435 region, just above a three-week low touched during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figure. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bears and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
USD/JPY holds near multi-week top, eyes 148.00 or June swing high
USD/JPY consolidates below the 148.00 neighborhood in the Asian session amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will forgo raising interest rates in 2025 in anticipation of the economic fallout from higher US tariffs. Further, Japanese political woes boost yields to multi-year highs, lending support to the pair.
Gold price moves closer to three-week peak amid modest USD downtick
Gold price regains positive traction amid a modest USD pullback from a multi-week high. Persistent trade-related uncertainties also lend support to the safe-haven precious metal. Reduced Fed rate cut bets might cap the commodity ahead of the critical US CPI report.
WTI drifts higher to near $66.00 as Trump threatens Russia with new sanctions
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.90 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid concerns over the United States' sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).