EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD remains under pressure above the mid-1.0800s, Fed rate decision eyed
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight, with no change in rates expected.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
The breakout of the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8) may push EUR/USD to challenge the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), strengthening the psychological barrier of 1.1000 and putting it ahead of the December 2023 top of 1.1139 (December 28).
On the downside, if the pair falls below the 200-day SMA at 1.0838, it might reach its 2024 low of 1.0694 (February 14). The November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1) is next, followed by the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023), the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3), and the round level of 1.0400.
Meanwhile, additional gains are expected in the immediate term as long as EUR/USD remains above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The 4-hour chart shows that the downward trend has been renewed. That said, the initial level of support is 1.0866, ahead of the 200-SMA at 1.0828 and 1.0761. The next upward obstacle appears to be 1.0981, followed by 1.0998. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) dropped to the negative ground, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 33.
Fundamental Overview
Further upward bias in the Greenback weighed on the riskier assets, lending further legs to the US Dollar Index (DXY) and keeping the price action around EUR/USD subdued well below the 1.0900 support.
In this context, spot reached multi-day lows in the 1.0870–1.0865 band, while the USD Index (DXY) flirted with the key 200-day SMA near 103.70.
The Dollar's renewed strength coincided with another strong performance in US yields across various maturity periods, mirroring the upward movement seen in German 10-year bund yields, which rose to the vicinity of 2.50%.
Looking at the broader macroeconomic landscape, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to begin their easing cycles, possibly in June. However, the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts may vary, potentially leading to different strategies for both central banks. Nevertheless, the ECB is not expected to significantly lag behind the Fed.
According to the FedWatch Tool provided by CME Group, the probability of a rate cut in June has now decreased to just above 50%.
All in all, the relatively sluggish fundamentals of the euro area, coupled with the resilient US economy, strengthen expectations of a stronger Dollar in the medium term, particularly as both the ECB and the Fed potentially implement their easing measures almost simultaneously. In such a scenario, EUR/USD could experience a more significant correction, initially targeting its year-to-date low around 1.0700 before potentially revisiting the lows observed in late October 2023 or early November in the 1.0500 region.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Can the Federal Reserve save the US Dollar? Premium
EUR/USD buyers took a break last week, leaving the weakened US Dollar some room to marginally advance. The EUR/USD pair was down from its Monday opening at 1.0938 and settled at around 1.0890.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains under pressure above the mid-1.0800s, Fed rate decision eyed
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight, with no change in rates expected.
GBP/USD attracts some sellers below the mid-1.2700s, all eyes on Fed, BoE rate decision
The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick in the US Dollar above 103.50 and higher US yields provide some support to the major pair. Markets turn cautious ahead of the central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England interest rate decisions.
USD/JPY advances toward 149.50 ahead of crucial BoJ policy decision
USD/JPY is rising toward 149.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, picking up fresh bids. Traders keenly await the highly-anticipated Bank of Japan policy decision. The BoJ's outlook on the negative interest rate policy and the Yield Curve Control (YCC) will play a key role in influencing the Japanese Yen.
Gold awaits Bull Flag confirmation and central banks’ verdicts
Gold price is holding the previous rebounding in Asian trading on Tuesday, as buyers take a breather ahead of the upcoming key central banks’ policy decisions. The US Dollar is stretching higher amid a risk-averse market environment, shrugging off some weakness in the US Treasury bond yields.
WTI climbs further beyond $81.00/barrel mark, hits fresh YTD peak amid supply concerns
WTI prolongs its upward trajectory on Monday and climbs to a fresh YTD peak. Concerns about tightening global supply continue to benefit the commodity. Hawkish Fed expectations might keep a lid on any further appreciating move.
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EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EURUSD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.