EUR/USD Forecast and News


EUR/USD regains 1.0900 ahead of Powell speech

EUR/USD is recovering above 1.0900 in the European session on Monday. The pair finds demand, as the US Dollar rebound stalls. The focus remains on US politics and Fedspeak looking ahead.

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EUR/USD Technical Overview

EUR/USD trades above 1.0900 after opening below this level. Once the pair confirms that level as support, it could target 1.0950 (static level) before 1.1000 (psychological level, static level). On the downside, 1.0850 (former resistance, static level) aligns as first support ahead of 1.0800 where the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are located.

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 70, suggesting that EUR/USD could make a technical correction before the next leg higher. 


Fundamental Overview

After posting strong gains in the previous week, EUR/USD opened lower to start the new week. The pair, however, managed to recover back above the key 1.0900 level during the European trading hours, erasing the bearish opening gap.

News of an assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump caused markets to adopt a cautious stance at the beginning of the week. At this point, it's difficult to assess the potential impact of this development on markets in the near term. In any case, rising US stock index futures, which were last seen gaining between 0.45% and 0.55% on the day, point to an improving risk mood already.

In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at an event organized by the Economic Club of Washington.

Following the soft inflation data published last week, markets are nearly fully pricing in a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September. Hence, the positioning suggests that the US Dollar does not have a lot of room left on the downside even if Powell sounds in favor of a rate reduction in September. Nevertheless, a dovish tilt in Powell's tone could feed into expectations for a total of three 25 basis points rate cuts before the end of the year and still hurt the USD.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term Premium

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term

Another auspicious week saw EUR/USD trade with decent gains and extend its positive streak for the third consecutive week, including a visit to the key 1.0900 region for the first time since early June.

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EUR/USD Big Picture

EUR/USD Bullish Themes

EUR/USD Bearish Themes

FXS Signals

Latest EUR Analysis


Latest EUR Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD regains 1.0900 ahead of Powell speech

EUR/USD regains 1.0900 ahead of Powell speech

EUR/USD is recovering above 1.0900 in the European session on Monday. The pair finds demand, as the US Dollar rebound stalls. The focus remains on US politics and Fedspeak looking ahead.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds below 1.3000, as focus shifts to Powell speech

GBP/USD holds below 1.3000, as focus shifts to Powell speech

GBP/USD pares losses but stays below 1.3000 in European trading on Monday. The US Dollar struggles after a positive start, as traders digest the assassination attempt on ex-US President Donald Trump. Powell's speech is next on tap for the pair. 

GBP/USD News

Japanese Yen declines due to improved US Dollar, awaits Fed Powell's speech

Japanese Yen declines due to improved US Dollar, awaits Fed Powell's speech

The Japanese Yen declines as the US Dollar improves due to the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump. The JPY may experience volatility amid speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Japanese authorities are estimated to have expended between ¥3.37 trillion to ¥3.57 trillion to curb the rapid depreciation of the JPY.

USD/JPY News

Gold price clings to gains near $2,400 on firm Fed rate-cut bets

Gold price clings to gains near $2,400 on firm Fed rate-cut bets

Gold price holds gains to near $2,400, driven by growing speculation for Fed rate cuts in September. Softer-than-expected US inflation for June indicated that price pressures are on course to return to 2%.

Gold News

WTI moves back above $81.00 mark, renewed USD buying might cap any further gains

WTI moves back above $81.00 mark, renewed USD buying might cap any further gains

West Texas Intermediate US crude Oil prices attract some dip-buying in the vicinity of mid-$80.00s, or a multi-day low touched during the Asian session on Monday, albeit lack bullish conviction. The commodity currently trades around the $81.30 area, up less than 0.20% for the day and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so.

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EUR/USD Yearly forecast

How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!

EUR/USD FORECAST 2024

In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.

The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD

There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.