EUR/USD Forecast and News


EUR/USD remains offered in the low-1.0900s

The generalised selling pressure continues to weigh on the risk complex, pushing EUR/USD back toward the 1.0900 support level amid a growing risk-off mood, as traders assess President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and their impact on economic activity.

Latest EUR News


EUR/USD Technical Overview

Immediate upside for EUR/USD is limited by the 2025 peak at 1.1145 (April 3), with the round level at 1.1200 and the 2024 high at 1.1213 (September 25) as the next key resistance levels.

Looking south, initial support lies at the weekly low of 1.0732 (March 27), aligning with the 200-day SMA. A decisive break below this region could open the door to a deeper pullback toward the provisional 55-day SMA at 1.0616.

Technical indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eaased near 61, coming down from the overbought zone, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 31 points to a moderately strong trend overall.

Resistance levels: 1.1005 1.1060 1.1120


Fundamental Overview

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Monday, Apr 07
15:30
4.175%
4.205%
15:30
4.00%
4.07%
19:00
$-0.81B
$15.20B
$18.08B
22:00
16%
23:01
0.9%
23:50
¥-2,937.9B
23:50
¥3,800.0B
¥-257.6B
Tuesday, Apr 08
01:30
-1
01:30
4
05:00
46.6

The selling pressure in the Euro (EUR) is regaining its footing on Monday, prompting EUR/USD to briefly dip to the sub-1.0900 region to hit two-day lows on the back of another firm tone in the US Dollar (USD).

On the latter, the US Dollar Index (DXY) added to Friday’s gains and revisited the 103.50 zone helped by safe-haven inflows, persistent tariffs concerns and a decent rebound in US yields across different time frames.

Fresh tariffs: Europe’s next big economic challenge

 

Trump’s new trade plan imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, plus additional levies ranging from 10% to 50% for specific countries. China faces a steep 34% surcharge on top of an existing 20% duty, while the European Union (EU) contends with a 20% tariff, the UK 10%, and Japan 24%. The baseline tariff kicked in on April 5, with the harsher reciprocal measures following on April 9.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump warned that he would impose new 50% tariffs on China if Beijing did not lift its retaliatory duties on U.S. exports by tomorrow.

Meanwhile, European Union (EU) President Ursula von der Leyen argued that while the EU was open to tariff negotiations with the U.S., the bloc was also preparing to retaliate if necessary.

Eastern Europe sees sparks of renewed hope

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have eased slightly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a ceasefire covering critical energy infrastructure and Black Sea routes—a deal partly brokered by the United States.

Moreover, President Trump also hinted at a potential US-Ukraine mineral revenue-sharing agreement, opening the door for American investment in Ukraine’s energy sector.

High seas ahead: Central banks face rising uncertainty

The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently kept interest rates unchanged, balancing the risk of inflation stoked by new tariffs against early signs of a cooling economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed a “data-dependent” stance, noting that as much as 50 basis points of easing could still be on the table if growth weakens.

Additionally, Powell noted on Friday that, despite elevated uncertainty, it was becoming clear that tariff increases would be significantly larger than expected. He added that the economic fallout was likely to reflect this trend—resulting in higher inflation and slower growth—and emphasised that these factors would force the central bank to confront some challenging decisions ahead.

Across the Atlantic, the ECB lowered its key rate by 25 basis points and signalled additional easing if uncertainty persists. New projections highlight softer growth and sticky near-term inflation, though policymakers see price pressures subsiding by 2026. ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned that a tariff showdown with the US could shave 0.5% off Eurozone GDP. Money markets currently price in an 80% chance of another rate cut this month.

Lagarde underscored the global fallout that tariffs could have, while ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted the profound impact of US policy on Europe. Robert Holzmann, however, argued that with Eurozone inflation easing and current rates not restraining growth, further cuts are unnecessary—though he conceded that a trade war might force central banks to consider unconventional measures.

Euro bulls take a breather

Speculative traders are turning bullish on the Euro, although net long positions retreated to three-week lows near 52K contracts according to the CFTC report for the week ending April 1, a day before “Liberation Day”. In the meantime, commercial players trimmed their short positions, which now stand at nearly 83K contracts.

Market participants will be laser-focused on any shifts in US trade policy, further developments in Eastern Europe, and fresh signals from both the Fed and ECB. The FOMC Minutes and US inflation figures will be the next salient events this week, as traders seek clues about the next moves for EUR/USD in this fast-changing landscape.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Markets on edge after US “Liberation Day,” turmoil just began

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Markets on edge after US “Liberation Day,” turmoil just began Premium

Financial markets navigated tumultuous waters in the first week of April. United States (US) President Donald Trump finally unveiled his reciprocal tariffs plan and spurred panic among worldwide investors.

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EUR/USD Big Picture

EUR/USD Bullish Themes

EUR/USD Bearish Themes

FXS Signals

Latest EUR Analysis


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Editors' picks

EUR/USD remains offered in the low-1.0900s

EUR/USD remains offered in the low-1.0900s

The generalised selling pressure continues to weigh on the risk complex, pushing EUR/USD back toward the 1.0900 support level amid a growing risk-off mood, as traders assess President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and their impact on economic activity.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD retreats further and breaks below 1.2800

GBP/USD retreats further and breaks below 1.2800

The US Dollar is picking up extra pace and flirting with daily highs, sending GBP/USD to multi-week lows near 1.2770 in a context where safe-haven demand continues to dictate sentiment amid the chaos of US tariffs.

GBP/USD News
Japanese Yen remains close to multi-month high against a broadly weaker USD

Japanese Yen remains close to multi-month high against a broadly weaker USD

The Japanese Yen reverses an intraday dip against its American counterpart and climbs back closer to the top end of the daily range heading into the European session on Monday. Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump's tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and undermine economic growth around the world.

USD/JPY News
Gold recedes to four-week lows near $2,950

Gold recedes to four-week lows near $2,950

The persistent selling pressure is now dragging Gold prices to the area of fresh multi-week troughs near the $2,950 mark per troy ounce, always amid the continuation of the recovery in the US Dollar, highr US yields across the curve and unabated tariff tensions.

Gold News
WTI plunges to near $60 on fears of global economic turmoil

WTI plunges to near $60 on fears of global economic turmoil

The Oil price has posted a fresh four-year low near $58.80 amid escalating concerns over the global economic outlook. US President trump has imposed a total of 54% tariffs on China. Trump has also announced a 10% baseline tariffs for all of his trading partners.

Oil News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


EUR/USD Yearly forecast

How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!

EUR/USD FORECAST 2025

In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.

The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD

Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.

The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS

About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.