EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range but continues to trade above 1.0700 in the early American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index declined to 4.9% in April as expected, making it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.

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Technical Overview

The near-term technical outlook shows that the bullish bias remains intact for the time being. EUR/USD holds above the ascending trend line coming from mid-May and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)  indicator on the four-hour chart holds comfortably above 50.

On the upside, static resistance seems to have formed at 1.0760. 1.0800 (psychological level) aligns as the next hurdle. 

Initial support is located at 1.0700 (psychological level, 20-period SMA) before 1.0660 (ascending trend line, static level) and 1.0630 (200-period SMA). As long as the pair manages to end the week above 1.0700, sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines.


Fundamental Overview

EUR/USD has regained its traction and continued to push higher after having closed above 1.0700 on Thursday. The pair remains on track to post gains for the second straight week and the technical outlook suggests that sellers remain on the sidelines.

The positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment in the American session on Thursday caused the dollar to lose interest. The S&P 500 Index gained nearly 2% and the greenback struggled to find demand with investors moving away from safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six major rivals, trades at its lowest level in a month below 102.00 early Friday, allowing EUR/USD to stay afloat above 1.0700.

Earlier in the day, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos reiterated that the first rate hike will come shortly after they end the QE in Q3 but added the process of increasing rates should be gradual. Nevertheless, investors paid little to no attention to these comments.

In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be watched closely by market participants. Investors expect the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, to decline to 4.9% on a yearly basis in April from 5.2% in March. A higher-than-expected print could revive inflation fears and trigger a flight to safety. In that case, the dollar could gather strength ahead of the weekend and weigh on EUR/USD.

US Core PCE Preview: Why there is room for a dollar-lifting upside surprise.

On the other hand, a soft PCE inflation print should allow risk flows to dominate the financial markets and help EUR/USD preserve its bullish momentum.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD: Bullish correction or trend change? Premium

EUR/USD:  Bullish correction or trend change?

The EUR/USD pair advanced for a second consecutive week after bottoming at a multi-year low of 1.0348 in mid-May to close above 1.0700. The broad dollar’s weakness was behind the advance, with the latter pressured despite lingering risk aversion.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after US inflation data

EUR/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range but continues to trade above 1.0700 in the early American session on Friday. The data from the US showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index declined to 4.9% in April as expected, making it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand

GBP/USD trades above 1.2600 as dollar struggles to find demand

GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600 and remains on track to end the week in positive territory. The greenback struggles to attract investors after the data from the US showed that PCE inflation softened in April. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY

USD/JPY finds a mild bounce from 126.70, weakness looks likely on vulnerable DXY

The USD/JPY has witnessed an unreliable rebound after hitting an intraday low of 126.67 in the Asian session. The asset has been trading in a defined range since Tuesday and is expected to continue its volatility contraction amid the unavailability of any significant economic event in today’s session.

USD/JPY News

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $1,850

Gold has lost its traction in the second half of the day on Friday and declined toward the $1,850 area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield staged a modest rebound on the US PCE inflation data, not allowing XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.

Gold News

WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus

WTI steadies above $113.00, six-week-old resistance line in focus

WTI struggles to extend the upside break of the key hurdle, grinds higher around the two-month top during Friday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold seesaws near $113.10 at the latest. Given the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, joining the bullish MACD signals to back WTI’s latest breakout, the commodity prices are likely to extend the run-up.

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EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2022

In the EURUSD 2022 Forecast, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to continue, almost during the Q1 and the Q2 of 2022. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1306. Read more details about the forecast.

From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2328 (on 06/01/21), and the minimum, 1.1200 (on 24/12/21).

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR EURUSD

Much water has run under the bridge in 2021. Central bankers from around the world have been cooling down speculation on persistently high inflation, calling in “temporarily,” and forecasting it would slowly stabilize to more suitable levels by 2022. But make no mistake: Hot inflation is the elephant in the room. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year. The coronavirus pandemic that hit the world in March 2020 still goes on and will also be a critical event in 2022, although there’s a better economic perspective.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.