EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD holds near 1.0500 ahead of Powell speech
EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0500 in the American session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data hurt the USD and help the pair keep its footing. Fed Chairman Powell will speak later in the day.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair posts modest intraday losses, still trading within familiar levels. The daily chart shows that the technical risk skews to the downside, as the pair keeps trading below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bearish slope and providing dynamic resistance at around 1.0560. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels without clear directional strength.
In the near-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is poised to extend its slump. The pair trades below bearish moving averages, meeting sellers around the 20 SMA. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, accelerated south above the larger one. Finally, technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish below their midlines, favoring a downward extension without confirming it.
Support levels: 1.0465 1.0420 1.0370
Resistance levels: 1.0560 1.0625 1.0660
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair struggles around the 1.0500 mark on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) regained its strength, partially backed by risk aversion. Political turmoil in France and South Korea took its toll on financial markets, with most Asian and European indexes reflecting the dismal mood by trading in the red.
Meanwhile, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) released the final versions of the November Services and Composite Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) for European economies. German figures suffered downward revisions, but the better readings in other economies resulted in upward revisions in the Eurozone Indexes. The EU Composite PMI was confirmed at 48.3 in November, slightly better than the 48.1 previously calculated.
Additionally, the EU published the October Producer Price Index (PPI), which was up by 0.4% on a monthly basis as expected. The annual reading printed at -3.2%, above the -3.3% expected and the previous -3.4%. Finally, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels. Comments about future monetary policy decisions can hit the Euro.
Across the pond, the United States (US) published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended November 29, which rose by 2.8%, below the previous weekly increase of 6.3%.
Coming up next, the US will release the ADP report on private employment change, while later in the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will be delivering a speech, and market participants will pay close attention to his words and any clues he may provide on upcoming monetary policy decisions.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Is the US Dollar corrective decline over? Premium
The EUR/USD pair ended a three-week losing streak, recovering towards 1.0600 before finally finding sellers. The US Dollar (USD) gapped lower at the weekly opening after reaching fresh 2024 highs against its European rival, with EUR/USD bottoming at 1.0332 on November 22.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds near 1.0500 ahead of Powell speech
EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0500 in the American session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data hurt the USD and help the pair keep its footing. Fed Chairman Powell will speak later in the day.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2700 after US data
Following a pullback, GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2700 in the second half of the day on Wednesday as the US Dollar loses strength following the disappointing data releases. Markets eagerly await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
USD/JPY clings to intraday gains around mid-150.00s ahead of Fed’s Powell
USD/JPY gains strong positive traction on Wednesday, though the upside potential seems limited. Less dovish Fed expectations push the US bond yields higher and undermine the lower-yielding JPY. December BoJ rate hike bets and subdued USD demand might cap the pair ahead of Fed’s Powell.
Gold advances to $2,650 area as US yields edge lower
Following a consolidation phase near $2,640, Gold gains traction and rises to the $2,650 area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield pushes lower after weak macroeconomic data releases from the US, helping XAU/USD stretch higher.
Crude Oil steady after API came in as surprise build ahead of OPEC+ and EIA
Oil price turns flat after having peaked above $70.00 briefly with US stockpiles building. Tensions brew in the Middle East with President-elect Donald Trump vowing to iniate war if Israeli hostages are not released. The US Dollar Index ticks up on Fed officials pushing back on odds for a rate cut in December.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.