Gold Forecast and News
Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500
Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The XAU/USD pair holds above the rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently pegged near $4,322.58, keeping the broader bias tilted higher. The average’s upward gradient underpins pullbacks. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line and beneath the zero mark, though it is turning higher. The negative histogram is contracting, suggesting fading bearish pressure.
RSI at 56 sits above the neutral 50 line, aligning with improving momentum without signaling overbought conditions. If momentum continues to firm, bulls could extend the recovery, while dips would be cushioned by the prevailing trend. Holding above $4,322.58 would preserve the bullish tone, whereas a decisive break below that average would open a deeper retracement.
Fundamental Overview
The growing acceptance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs two more times this year, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, continues to act as a tailwind for the Gold price. The USD, however, defies dovish Fed expectations and prolongs a two-week-old uptrend to hit a nearly one-month top. This, in turn, might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful intraday appreciating move.
Gold traders await US NFP for Fed rate-cut cues
The US Dollar touches its highest level since December 10 during the Asian session on Friday and exerts some pressure on the Gold price amid some repositioning ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on a CNBC interview on Thursday that lowering interest rates is the only ingredient missing for even stronger economic growth, which is why the Fed should not delay.
Meanwhile, traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in March and cut rates again later this year. This could offer support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Traders, however, await more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the highly anticipated US monthly jobs data later today.
The US economy is expected to have added 60K new jobs in December, down from 64K in the previous month, though the Unemployment Rate is seen edging lower to 4.5% from 4.6% recorded in November.
In the meantime, heightened geopolitical uncertainties on the back of the US incursion in Venezuela, a diplomatic spat between China and Japan, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, might also support the XAU/USD pair.
In a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that he expected the US would be running Venezuela and extracting oil from its huge reserves for years.
Separately, China escalated its dispute with Japan, restricting exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets to Japan. The ban follows the recent Taiwan-related remarks by Japan’s Prime Minister.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that an end to a nearly four-year war in Ukraine was quite far away, given Russia’s position, calling the plan for European troops to be deployed in Ukraine dangerous.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Volatile start to 2026 as markets assess US data, geopolitics Premium
After losing more than 4% in the last week of the year, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum as trading conditions normalized. Although XAU/USD entered a consolidation phase following the rally seen earlier in the week, it managed to register weekly gains.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600
The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.
GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA
GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.
Japanese Yen weakens further; USD/JPY hits multi-week top on firmer USD ahead of US NFP
The Japanese Yen adds to its intraday losses through the first half of the European session amid the uncertainty over the timing of the next interest rate cut by the Bank of Japan and escalating China-Japan row. This, along with worries that consumption momentum could fade if inflation continues to outpace wage growth in early 2026, overshadows an unexpected rise in Japan's Household Spending data for November.
Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500
Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.
WTI Price Forecast: Short-term momentum improves above 21-day SMA
WTI eases on Friday after rallying nearly 4% the previous day as markets reassess US oversight of Venezuelan Oil. US President Donald Trump signals potential $100 billion investment in Venezuela’s Oil sector, reviving oversupply concerns. Technically, near-term momentum improves, but the longer-term trend remains fragile.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.