Gold Forecast and News
Gold consolidates weekly gains, holds above $4,100
Gold enters a consolidation phase and fluctuates above $4,100 following the bullish action seen earlier in the week. The improving market mood makes it difficult for XAU/USD to push higher as market focus shifts to House vote on funding bill and Fed commentary.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair seems to struggle to build on its strength beyond the 50% retracement level of the recent sharp corrective decline from the all-time peak, touched in October. However, positive oscillators on daily/4-hour charts favor bullish traders. Some follow-through buying beyond the $4,150-4,155 zone will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $4,200 mark. The said handle nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which, if cleared decisively, should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $4,100-4,095 region, could offer immediate support ahead of the $4,075 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $4,025 region en route to the $4,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. The XAU/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the $3,936-3,935 region before eventually dropping to the $3,900 round figure.
Fundamental Overview
A goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand turns out to be another factor exerting some pressure on the commodity.
The upside for the USD, however, seems capped amid expectations that an economic fallout from a prolonged US government shutdown might prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates again in December. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the non-yielding Gold and helps limit deeper losses. Investors also opt to wait for speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members later this Wednesday for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold is undermined by positive risk tone and modest USD strength
The reopening of the US government shifts market focus back to the deteriorating fiscal outlook and concerns about weakening economic momentum. Economists estimate that the prolonged government closure might have already shaved approximately 1.5 to 2.0% off quarterly GDP growth.
The resumption of normal data flow would reinforce that expectation — especially after last week’s weaker-than-expected US employment and consumer sentiment indicators. Moreover, traders continue to assign a meaningful probability for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month.
Data from workforce analytics company Revelio Labs showed last week that 9,100 jobs were lost in October, and government payrolls fell by 22,200 positions. Moreover, the Chicago Fed estimated that the unemployment rate edged up last month, pointing to a deteriorating labor market.
This reaffirmed dovish Fed expectations and dragged the US Dollar to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday, assisting the non-yielding Gold to build on its breakout momentum beyond the $4,100 mark. However, the upbeat market mood acts as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Sellers hesitate as markets reassess Fed policy outlook Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction and spent the week fluctuating within a relatively tight channel at around $4,000.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.1600, awaits Fed commentary, US House vote
EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1600 in the second half of the day on Wednesday as the trading action the FX space remains subdues. Markets await the US House vote on the stopgap funding bill that will end the government shutdown. Meanwhile, investors will pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers.
GBP/USD declines toward 1.3100 as USD recovers ahead of House vote
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and falls toward 1.3100 on Wednesday. The US Dollar stages a rebound in anticipation of the US government reopening but the risk-positive market atmosphere limits the currency's gains. Fedspeak and the US House vote on the funding bill are awaited.
USD/JPY gains as Yen softens on dovish BoJ stance, US shutdown optimism
The Japanese Yen declines as Takaichi calls for a supportive monetary policy to sustain the recovery. Hopes for a deal to end the US government shutdown reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts limit the upside potential of the US Dollar.
Gold consolidates weekly gains, holds above $4,100
Gold enters a consolidation phase and fluctuates above $4,100 following the bullish action seen earlier in the week. The improving market mood makes it difficult for XAU/USD to push higher as market focus shifts to House vote on funding bill and Fed commentary.
WTI trades broadly sideways near 20-day EMA around $60.00
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 0.5% lower to near $5975 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Oil price faces pressure on oversupply worries, following the announcement from the OPEC+ that it will increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day. The amount of supply increases is similar to what had been targeted for October and November.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.