Gold Forecast and News
Gold approaches $4,500 as record-setting rally continues
Gold builds on Monday's impressive gains and advances toward $4,500, setting fresh record-highs along the way. Heightened geopolitical tensions, combined with the ongoing US Dollar (USD) selloff ahead of the Q3 GDP data, help XAU/USD preserve its bullish momentum.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The overnight breakout through the $4,375-4,380 hurdle (the previous all-time peak) and a subsequent move beyond the $4,400 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs steadily, further underscoring a firm uptrend. Price holds above the SMA, currently pegged around the $4,160 area, which should act as dynamic support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line extends above the Signal line and sits in positive territory, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 81 (overbought), which could cap gains and prompt a near-term pause.
Momentum remains strong as the uptrend is supported by the rising SMA, while the positive MACD tone reinforces buyers’ control. With the RSI stretched, a consolidation or shallow pullback could unfold, and a slide toward the rising average would not disrupt the broader bullish bias. A sustained close above support would keep the upside path intact, while any cooling of momentum would likely translate into range trading rather than a trend reversal.
Fundamental Overview
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent add to the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's (Fed) long-term policy credibility. This, along with dovish Fed expectations, exerts some follow-through pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the bullion. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties benefit the precious metal's safe-haven status and contribute to the strong move up.
Speaking on a podcast, Bessent opened the door to a rethink of the Fed’s inflation framework and said that he favours the idea of an inflation range rather than a fixed-point target. Bessent further suggested the new Fed chair could consider scrapping the dot plot — a move that would mark a significant shift in how the central bank communicates its policy outlook. This comes on top of expectations that the new Fed chair will slash interest rates regardless of the economic fundamentals. In fact, traders are still pricing in a greater chance of two more rate cuts by the US central bank, which drags the USD lower for the second straight day and further drives flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump had ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela to tighten the economic screws on President Nicolás Maduro. The US seized a large tanker on December 10 and intercepted a second vessel over the weekend, and was also pursuing a third tanker. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the region. Apart from this, US Vice President JD Vance said that he doesn’t have confidence that there will be a peaceful solution to a nearly four-year-old Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, the possibility of another Israeli strike against Iran keeps geopolitical risks in play and turns out to be another factor that contributes to the XAU/USD pair’s strong positive momentum.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop, to a larger extent, offsets a generally positive tone around the equity markets, suggesting that the path of least resistance for Gold remains to the upside. Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the delayed release of the Q3 GDP report and Durable Goods Orders later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members could drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair amid the year-end thin liquidity. However, extremely overbought conditions on short-term charts warrant caution for bulls before positioning for further appreciation.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
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Gold approaches $4,500 as record-setting rally continues
Gold builds on Monday's impressive gains and advances toward $4,500, setting fresh record-highs along the way. Heightened geopolitical tensions, combined with the ongoing US Dollar (USD) selloff ahead of the Q3 GDP data, help XAU/USD preserve its bullish momentum.
WTI declines below $58.00 as US considers selling seized Venezuelan crude
West Texas Intermediate is trading around $57.80 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price declines after rising more than 2% in the previous session as US President Donald Trump said that he might sell Venezuelan crude that he has seized.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.