Gold Forecast and News
Gold to challenge fresh record highs
Gold prices soared to $4,497 early on Monday, as persistent US Dollar weakness and thinned holiday trading exacerbated the bullish run. The bright metal eases following the release of an upbeat US Q3 GDP reading, as USD finds near-term demand in the American session.
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XAU/USD Technical Overview
The XAU/USD fell towards the $4,450 region with the headlines, but resumed its advance after the dust settled, and trades around $4,480 at the time of writing.
Chart Analysis XAU/USD
Technically, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trades at $4,474.84, holding on to modest intraday gains. The 20-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are bullish, with the price holding above all three, usually indicating that bulls maintain the lead. The 20 SMA near $4,398.04 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator eased but holds well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands at 70. With the Momentum still positive and the RSI stretched, consolidation could precede another leg higher. A sustained push from current levels would extend the uptrend, while a pullback that holds above the cited SMAs would keep the bullish structure intact.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades far above an ascending 20-day SMA, with the latter developing above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Price holds above all three, with the 20-day SMA at $4,267.83 providing nearby support and the 100-day SMA at $3,891.93 anchoring the trend. Finally, the Momentum indicator advances above its midline, while the RSI indicator at 80 barely decelerated its advance.
Fundamental Overview
Gold price soared to a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, trading at $4,497 a troy ounce during European trading hours as market players kept dropping the US Dollar (USD). The bright metal also found favor in Middle East tensions, following weekend headlines indicating Israel is considering resuming its war with Iran.
The USD, however, found some near-term footing at the beginning of the American session after the release of mixed United States (US) data. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average showed that the private sector added an average of 11,500 jobs per week, in the week ending December 6, slightly below the previous 16,250 but still positive. Additionally, the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported annualized growth of 4.3% in the three months to September, well above the previous 3.8% and the expected 3.3%. On a negative note, the GDP Price Index, a measure of inflation, jumped from 2.1% to 3.7%.
The country also reported that Durable Goods Orders fell 2.2% in October, a worsening from the 0.7% advance posted in September. Finally, CB Consumer Confidence in December edged lower for the fifth consecutive month, declining to 89.1 from 92.9 in November.
Most countries celebrate Christmas, which means there won’t be any macroeconomic releases to worry about in the coming days. Japan is the only exception, releasing some interesting figures, including Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, next Friday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
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GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 on modest USD recovery
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Gold to challenge fresh record highs
Gold prices soared to $4,497 early on Monday, as persistent US Dollar weakness and thinned holiday trading exacerbated the bullish run. The bright metal eases following the release of an upbeat US Q3 GDP reading, as USD finds near-term demand in the American session.
WTI declines below $58.00 as US considers selling seized Venezuelan crude
West Texas Intermediate is trading around $57.80 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price declines after rising more than 2% in the previous session as US President Donald Trump said that he might sell Venezuelan crude that he has seized.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.