Gold Forecast and News
Gold retreats from record highs amid profit-taking on Christmas Eve
Gold retreats following the move higher to the $4,525 area, or a fresh all-time peak, though the downside remains limited amid a bullish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The overnight breakout through a nearly two-month-old ascending trend-channel resistance and a subsequent strength beyond the $4,500 psychological mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line and above zero, while an expanding positive histogram suggests strengthening bullish momentum.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flagging overstretched conditions even as buyers retain control. Should gains stall, the channel’s lower boundary at $4,203.35 acts as key support, while maintaining a positive MACD profile, and an RSI easing toward 70 would help reset conditions for trend continuation. Nevertheless, a pause would not derail the broader advance as the outlook remains positive following the breakout.
Fundamental Overview
Geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be another factor driving safe-haven flows towards the bullion.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, prolongs its weekly downtrend for the third straight day and drops to a fresh low since early October amid rising bets for further policy easing by the US central bank. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was surprisingly soft in November. Furthermore, signs of a cooling US labor market reinforced market expectations that the Fed will lower borrowing costs two more times in 2026. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump publicly stated his expectation for the next Fed Chair to lower interest rates during periods of strong market performance and even when the economy is performing well. This overshadows the upbeat US GDP growth figures and continues to undermine the USD, benefiting the Gold price.
A delayed report published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Tuesday that the economy expanded by a 4.3% annualized pace during the July-September period amid resilient consumer and business spending. The reading was stronger than consensus estimates and higher than the 3.8% rise recorded in the previous quarter. The market reaction, however, turns out to be muted as the longest-ever US government shutdown is expected to weigh on fourth-quarter growth. Separately, the US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders declined 2.2% in October, following the 0.7% increase in the previous month and worse than 1.5% fall anticipated. Moreover, a sharp fall in the consumer confidence index in December suggests that households are becoming more cautious about the future.
This, in turn, favors the USD bears, which should continue to support the XAU/USD pair. Moreover, tensions linked to the United States' actions against vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, escalating the Russia-Ukraine war, and a potential new Israel-Iran conflict validate the near positive outlook for the safe-haven Gold. That said, the upbeat market mood holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the precious metal amid the year-end thin liquidity. Market participants now look forward to the release of the usual US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for some impetus later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the upside, and any meaningful corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD off three-month highs, holds near 1.1800 on softer US Dollar
EUR/USD consolidates gains below 1.1800 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. A broadly subdued US Dollar continues to underpin the pair amid quiet markets and thin liquidity conditions on Christmas Eve.
GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets
GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 in the European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders turn to sidelines heading into the holiday season.
Japanese Yen stands firm near weekly top against weaker USD; seems poised to climb further
The Japanese Yen prolongs its uptrend against a broadly weaker US Dollar for the third successive day and sticks to gains near the weekly top through the early European session on Wednesday. Minutes of the Bank of Japan's October meeting showed that board members debated the need to continue raising interest rates.
Gold retreats from record highs amid profit-taking on Christmas Eve
Gold retreats following the move higher to the $4,525 area, or a fresh all-time peak, though the downside remains limited amid a bullish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
WTI drifts higher to near $58.50 amid geopolitical tensions
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $58.50 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid persistent geopolitical tensions, such as the US action on Venezuelan oil tankers.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.