Are seasonal adjustment responsible for the poor number? That is one explanation used to explain the bitter disappointment in April's Nonfarm Payrolls – an increase of only 266,000 jobs instead of nearly one million expected.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose only by 266,000 in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed March's increase of 770,000 (revised from 916,000) and missed the market expectation of 978,000 by a wide margin.
The US labor market’s stars are aligned for April.The economy is expanding rapidly, employers are confident and consumers eager to throw off the restraints of the past year.
US economy is expected to add nearly 1 million jobs in April. Wage inflation will be one of the key elements of the jobs report. USD is likely to gather strength against its rivals on an upbeat NFP reading.
It is all about expectations – with headlines such as "the highest since 1983" shaping estimates and the market reaction. The US economy gained no fewer than 916,000 jobs in March, the highest since October.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 916,000 in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed February's increase of 468,000 (revised from 379,000) and came in much better than the market expectation of 647,000.
Big surprise – albeit not for all – in the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February. The world's largest economy gained 379,000 jobs, around double the early estimates of 182,000. Moreover, it is topped off by upward revisions worth 159,000.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 379,000 in February, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed January's increase of 166,000 (revised from 49,000) and beat the market expectation of 182,000 by a wide margin.
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact\' – that has been one of the consistent trading patterns through the decades and perhaps the centuries. January 2021's NFP has proved no different.
American employers resumed hiring in January and the unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low as California ended its lockdown and viral rates fell across the country. Nonfarm payrolls add 49,000 positions in January as forecast.
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected. The virus has been raging in the last month of 2020 and government support was still in the works. Revisions added 135,000 to the previous two months, but the most recent figure is more worrying.
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.
The aussie eases as Wall Street trims intraday gains, still supported by firmly bullish base metal. Record highs in copper and rising gold underpin the commodity-linked currency.
The EUR/USD pair topped at 1.2177 before retreating, as the greenback remains the weakest currency across the FX board. A scarce macroeconomic calendar kept major pairs within limited intraday ranges.
The price of gold is trading at $1,836.81 at the time of writing and is up on the day by some 0.30%. The bulls, however, are backing off on what could be profit-taking as the US dollar stabilises within a narrow range on Monday vs a basket of major currencies. DXY is flat and has stuck to a 90.0420/3390 window.
Bitcoin price beginning to hint at a complex topping process. Ethereum price shakes off rising wedge pattern to test new Fibonacci extension level.
The UK is projected to report a 1.7% contraction in the first quarter. Optimism about a vaccine-led recovery from the second quarter onward is baked into the price. A reminder of past weakness may trigger a much-needed correction after the big breakout.
NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.
The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.
During NFP data release, spreads first fall apart and recover slowly afterwards as market calms down.
The Non Farm Payrolls report is arguably one of biggest market movers in the Forex. Since the NFP report is scheduled this coming week, I thought it would be good for us to take a closer look at this fundamental giant.
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.
