NonFarm Payrolls


US labor market shows signs of a further cooldown in June

US jobs report post-release checklist – July 5

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 206,000 in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000 but coming in below May’s increase of 218,000.
NFP Revisions Negative Downward revisions to April and May data show employment in these months combined were 111,000 lower than previously reported.
Unemployment rate Negative The US unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% in June from 4% in May. This reading came in above the market forecast of 4%.
Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral The labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.6% from 62.5%.
Average Hourly Earnings Negative Wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3.9% on a yearly basis in June from 4.1%, as anticipated.

 

US jobs report pre-release checklist – July 5

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls  PositiveNonfarm Payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, up sharply from the 165,000 increase seen a month earlier and above the market expectations of 185,000. 
Challenger Job Cuts PositiveUS-based employers announced 48,786 job cuts in June. This print followed 63,816 job cuts in May.
Initial Jobless Claims   NegativeThe number of people filing for unemployment benefits came in above 230,000 for four consecutive weeks in June. At the end of the month, the four-week average stood at 238,500, compared to 222,250 at the end of May. 
Continuing Jobless Claims   NegativeThe total number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to rise throughout June and stood at 1.85 million at the end of the month, up from 1.81 million reported in the last week of May.
ISM Services PMI  NegativeThe Employment Index of the ISM Services PMI survey declined to 46.1 in June from 47.1 in May, pointing to an ongoing decline in service sector payrolls.
ISM Manufacturing PMI   NegativeThe Employment Index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey fell to 49.3 in June from 51.1, suggesting that the number of employed in the manufacturing sector declined slightly following the modest increase seen in May.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index  NeutralThe University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index edged lower to 68.2 in June from 69.1 in May.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index  NeutralThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 100.4 in June from 101.3 in May. “Strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future,” the publication noted.
ADP Employment Report  NegativeADP’s measure of private-sector employment increased by 150,000 in June, lower than the 157,000 increase registered in May and analysts’ estimate of 160,000.
JOLTS Job Openings  NeutralJob openings on the last business day of May stood at 8.1 million, up from 7.9 million in April. This data is lagging as the NFP report is for June and the latest job openings data refers to May.

 

May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


March US JOBS REPORT REVIEW




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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.