NonFarm Payrolls


JUNE US JOBS REPORT

US jobs report post-release checklist – Jun 7th, 2019

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation NegativeDisappointing as only 75k jobs added, more than 100k less than expectations.
NFP Revisions NegativeLast month impressive reading revised down from 263k to 224k.
Unemployment Rate PositiveStays at 3.6% record lows.
Labor Force Participation Rate NegativeUnable to climb to 62.9% as expected, remains at 62.8%.
Average Hourly Earnings NegativeWage rising pace dropped to 3.1% YoY and stayed at 0.2% MoM, both one tick below expectations.

 

Latest News

JUNE US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Jun 7th, 2019

Previous Non-Farm PayrollsPositiveNFP headline showed a big number: 263k jobs added
Challenger Job CutsNegativeThe number of corporate layoffs in May jumped from around 40k to 58.57k, which could be a bad signal for the unemployment rate.
Initial Jobless Claims NegativeFirst-time employment claimants were over 200k each of the last four weeks, which might be the end of the long-term downward trend in the indicator.
Continuing Jobless Claims NegativeIndividuals looking for jobs currently receiving unemployment benefits also seem to have found a bottom around 1.65M, which might mean the job creation has stalled a bit.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI PositiveThe Employment Index in the Non-Manufacturing PMI spiked to 58.1%, increasing by 4.4%. Both PMI surveys are showing strong improvement in the labor market conditions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI PositiveThe Employment sub-index in the Manufacturing PMI grew 1.3% in May, from 52.4% to 53.7%.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index PositiveUMich Consumer Confidence is surging, back at the 100 level for the first time since last September
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index PositiveThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence registered growth for the third consecutive month, nearing the pre-US government shutdown highs
ADP Employment Report Negative27k is a dismal number of job creation reported by ADP, which given its strong correlation with NFP, provides a pretty strong negative signal.
JOLTS Job Openings PositiveJob openings nearly at 7.5M, back on track after a dip in February

 


MAY US JOBS REPORT

US jobs report post-release checklist – April 5th, 2019

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation PositiveUpbeat with 196k jobs added vs 180k expected
NFP Revisions PositiveFebruary slightly revised to the upside from 20k to 33k, still very modest
Unemployment Rate PositiveStable at 3.8%.
Labor Force Participation Rate Positive63.0% is better than 62.9% forecasted, although less than in Feb (63.2%).
Average Hourly Earnings NegativeBad turnaround in both monthly (0.1% below 0.3% exp.) and yearly (3.2% below 3.4% exp.) figures.

APRIL US JOBS REPORT

US jobs report post-release checklist – April 5th, 2018

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation PositiveUpbeat with 196k jobs added vs 180k expected
NFP Revisions PositiveFebruary slightly revised to the upside from 20k to 33k, still very modest
Unemployment Rate PositiveStable at 3.8%.
Labor Force Participation Rate Positive63.0% is better than 62.9% forecasted, although less than in Feb (63.2%).
Average Hourly Earnings NegativeBad turnaround in both monthly (0.1% below 0.3% exp.) and yearly (3.2% below 3.4% exp.) figures.
NFP

MARCH US JOBS REPORT

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Crash Course to Become an NFP Expert

Have you ever read news updates mentioning rising unemployment or falling payrolls yet you don’t have a clue what these mean for the Forex market?


Well, today is your lucky day the FXStreet team has been working on a research material to make you an expert in trading the NFP report.

Considered the backbone of the U.S. economy, the NFP has an history of rocking global markets, e specially the FX market via the U.S. Dollar. Other signs of economic growth are often viewed with a little suspicion by market participants if employment figures are not at a healthy level.

Since the headline number for NFP tends to move all financial markets, as a trader it is important that you prepare for various scenarios, by developing models to predict the likely headline number and to trade the outcome.

To accomplish that, you should start with a solid understanding of employment conditions in the U.S. The more knowledge you have, the more confident you will feel trading the NFP. Making your own predictions, you don’t need to accept the market estimates as written in stone anymore. Besides, they are often well off the mark.

Ready to make a leap and become an NFP expert?

BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.


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