The US Nonfarm Payroll report was a big miss, triggering a sharp downward move in the greenback against all of its major rivals, as the world's largest economy added just 98,000 jobs, against market's expectations of 180K.
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Non Farm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The Non-Farm Payroll report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates, and commodities. It does so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes dramatically.
US Departament of Labor
The department is led by the U.S. Secretary of Labor, Thomas E. Perez, the highest ranking official of the institution. On March 18, 2013, Perez was nominated by President Barack Obama and took office on July 23 2013 when he was confirmed by the Senate.
NFP: To Trade
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
NFP: Not to Trade
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the Non-Farm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, the US Non-Farm Payroll still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
What is Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast?
Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will it have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of non-farm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some Non-Farm Payrolls outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past NFP data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.