Some 40 million planes land safely every year – such soft events are not news, but when it is the world's largest economy rather than flights, it is big news for financial markets.
US labor market softens in August, attracting dovish Fed bets
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 187,000 in August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 170,000.
US jobs report post-release checklist – September 1
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||US employers added 187,000 payrolls in August, more than the 170,000 expected and increasing from the 157,000 jobs created in July.|
|NFP Revisions||Negative||Net revisions from the previous two months, June and July, show that employers created 110,000 jobs less than previously estimated.|
|Unemployment rate||Neutral||The unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, well above the 3.5% expected. Still, this came partly due to more people joining the labor force rather than due to a sharp increase in joblessness.|
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The participation rate, a gauge of the active workforce, rose by 0.2 percentage points to 62.8% after being flat since March.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Negative||Annual wage growth cooled somewhat in August to 4.3%, coming in lower than expected, a sign of loosening labor market conditions.|
JULY US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
For the labor market, the narrative is straightforward – normality at last. For markets, it is somewhat more complicated. Nonfarm Payrolls failed to provide a straightforward narrative for investors, and not for the first time. The US Dollar is set to fight back after the initial blow.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 187,000 in July, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 200,000. June's increase of 209,000 got revised lower to 185,000.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – September 1
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||US employers added 187,000 jobs in July, missing expectations and broadly in line with June’s 185,000 increase.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Negative||Employers announced 75,151 job cuts in August, more than tripling the figure seen a month earlier.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Neutral||The number of people filing to receive unemployment benefits for the first time has remained broadly steady at low levels. The 4-week moving average until August 25 was at 237,500, almost unchanged from the prior reading.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||Overall claims rose by 28,000 to 1.725 million in the week ending August 19. This is the highest level in six weeks.|
|ISM Services PMI||Neutral||The ISM Services PMI data for August hasn’t been published yet. A similar survey by S&P Global showed services activity cooled to a six-month low in August.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Neutral||The ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August hasn’t been published yet. A similar survey by S&P Global showed factory activity contracted in August at a sharper pace than in July.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US edged down slightly to 69.5 in August from 71.6 in July. The small decline came after sharp increases in recent months.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined sharply to 106.1 in August from 114.0 in July. Optimism around employment conditions receded.
|ADP Employment Report||Negative||ADP’s gauge of private-sector employment rose by 177,000 jobs in August, less than the 195,000 increase expected and almost half of the 371,000 jobs added in July.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Negative||Job openings in the US fell more than expected to 8.82 million in July, coming under the nine million threshold for the first time since March 2021.|
JUNE US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US has gained 209,000 jobs, within expectations – but the US Dollar loses ground. Is it all a game of expectations? Not in this case, as the details matter.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 209,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 225,000.
MAY US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Is the US economy experiencing a soft landing? According to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls, the job market is slowing down to a "Goldilocks level" – not too hot nor too cold. For markets, it means ongoing growth but with lower inflation and interest rates. For the US Dollar, it means the path of least resistance is down.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose 339,000 in May. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 190,000 by a wide margin. April's reading of 253,000 also got revised higher to 294,000.
APRIL US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
America's job market is on fire – I feel a deja-vu when writing that line, as that has been the outcome of Nonfarm Payrolls reports for over a year. The US gained 253,000 positions last month, smashing expectations of an increase of 179,000.
The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 253,000 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 179,000.