A V-shaped recovery? White House adviser Larry Kudlow still touted a rapid bounce as late as two weeks ago – but the shape of the labor market already looks like an L or Nike swoosh. The sharp fall due to coronavirus is turning from a temporary shutdown into more permanent job losses.
US NFP up 1.763 million vs. 1.6 million expected
US jobs report post-release checklist – Jul 2nd, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||The US economy added 1.76M jobs in July, a much better-than-expected figure.|
|NFP Revisions||Neutral||May figure was revised slightly downwards, from 4.800M to 4.791M.|
U3 unemployment rate fell from 11.1% to 10.2%, while U6 underemployment dipped from 18% to 16.5%, both better-than-expected results.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce rose from 61% to 61.4%, continuing the recovery started in May.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||The latest release saw an increase from -103% to +0.2%.|
August US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
Are Non-Farm Payrolls expectations too high or too low? The resurgence of coronavirus, confusing leading indicators, and other factors complicate calculations. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam thrash out all the factors and discuss the impact on the dollar and gold.
It’s a confusing time for economists. Forecasts are in greater demand than ever but the data is often contradictory and sometimes plain wrong, making predictions particularly hazardous. The US economy has shed over 20 million jobs since the pandemic began in March.
Things couldn’t be much worse in the US ahead of the release of the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report. A record economic contraction in Q2 coupled with a dovish US Federal Reserve last week, as the central bank remained on hold and passed the ball to lawmakers, which, by the way, can’t found common ground to agree on a new coronavirus aid-package.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Aug 7th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 4.8M jobs in June, a much better-than-expected figure, although still short of a V-shaped recovery.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Negative||Planned job cuts in the US-based employers increased by 54% from 170,219 in June to 262,649 in July.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||Little improvement in the latest week as businesses continue to lay off workers.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Neutral||The number of unemployment benefit receivers is slowing down but failing to do so sharply, with a whooping 16.107M being registered on June 12th week|
|ISM Services PMI||Negative||Employment activity in the services sector contracted in July for the fifth month in a row.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||Employment sub-component in the US flagship manufacturing survey recovered from 42.1 to 44.3 in July.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||Consumer sentiment sank further in late July due to the continued resurgence of the coronavirus.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, after increasing in June.|
|ADP Employment Report||Negative
||Private sector employment increased by 167,000 jobs from June
to July, but failed expectations.
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||The number of hires increased by 2.4 mi. to a series high of 6.5 mi. in May, the largest monthly increase of hires since the series began.|
July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy gained 4.8 million jobs in June, better than expected. Data is from early June when the US economy was reopening at a rapid pace. A raging second wave of coronavirus cases is set to hit employment, including in the long term.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside once again, but doubts about the sustainability remain prevalent. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss the market reaction, the state of coronavirus, politics, and more as a hot summer begins. Are the plumbers making progress?
June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Shocker – but a positive one – America is getting back to work, or at least receiving support while staying at home and remaining officially on the payroll. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for May was initially hard to believe – all those surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters had foreseen a loss of positions in May and the US gained 2.509 million jobs.
The labor market collapse reversed in May as a totally unexpected gain in employment underlined the resilience of the American economy and the positive impact of the government’s efforts under the $2 trillion Payroll Protection Program to keep people at work. Non-farm payrolls rose by 2.54 million last month, a vast improvement from the 20.5 million who were furloughed in April and less than half the -8 million forecast.
May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The worst Non-Farm Payrolls report in history – 20.5 jobs lost and an unemployment rate of 14.7% – is shocking but investors were already bracing for disaster. The lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus have taken their toll. The headline figures are devastating, but other statistics already paint an even darker picture.
The US labor market collapse in April surpassed all previous records for job losses but markets have already turned to the future as reopening states spur economic revival hopes. Payrolls dropped by 20.5 million, less than the 22 million estimate and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the highest since 1939 and the end of the Great Depression and just before the Second World War rearmed the US economy.
April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
"Like a hurricane hitting the whole country" – one of the reactions to the Non-Farm Payrolls report that showed a loss of 701,000 jobs, seven times worse than expected. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%, also worse than expected. It is the worst report since March 2009. The bad news may be only the very beginning, the tip of the iceberg.
American NFP shed 701,000 jobs in March, more that the worst loss during the financial crisis and surprising markets with the Labor Department’s ability to capture the rapid job losses. Economists had predicted just 100,000 firings, expecting the full accounting to be delayed until April as the US slows drastically from the economic impact of the Coronavirus.
March US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The American job market looks great – or at least that was the picture in February. There is nothing not to like in the data. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 273,000, smashing expectations, while wages advanced by healthy rates of 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY.
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for February was much better than expected, coming in with 273,000 jobs created vs a revised January number to 273,000 (from 225,000) as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in February from 3.6% in January.