NonFarm Payrolls


Nonfarm Payrolls: The US adds 531K jobs in October

US jobs report post-release checklist – Nov 5th, 2021

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive The US economy added 531K jobs in October, better than the notable 425K expectations.
NFP Revisions Positive September figure revised upwards from 194K to 312K.
Unemployment rate Positive

U3 unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, while the U6 underemployment also continued its recovery down to 8.3%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral The share of people in the workforce stayed at 61.6%, as expected.
Average Hourly Earnings Positive Yearly wage gains up to 4.9%, while monthly wage figures came out at 0.4% as expected

 

November US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Nov 5th, 2021

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls Negative The US economy disappointed adding 194K jobs in September, way below the 500K expected.
Challenger Job Cuts Neutral Corporate layoffs rose from all-time lows from under 18K to 22.82K in October. 
Initial Jobless Claims Positive First-time employment claims continue to improve slowly, below 300K per week, signalling the post-pandemic recovery is still ongoing.
Continuing Jobless Claims Positive The unemployment-benefit claimants' number has accelerated its downtrend in the last weeks, almost hitting 2M and closing in to pre-pandemic levels.
ISM Services PMI Negative The employment section of the US main service sector survey release fell down below expectations to 51.6, just hanging into expansion territory.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Positive The employment index of the main services sector survey is back on positive ground, improving to 52 in October.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Negative The UMich consumer sentiment survey is still stuck around the low 70s for the third consecutive month, near post-pandemic lows.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Positive The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® has been more bouncy than the UMich one, back above 110s and better than expectations.
ADP Employment Report Positive
Private sector employment report showed a 571K job gain in October, way above the 400K expectations. Will it recover its NFP-correlation this month?
JOLTS Job Openings Positive Although lagging by nature, the JOLTS indicator still is near all-time highs, although it finally decreased in August after eight consecutive months of rises. 

 

September US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


August US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW



June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW

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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.