The American job market looks great – or at least that was the picture in February. There is nothing not to like in the data. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 273,000, smashing expectations, while wages advanced by healthy rates of 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY.
Non-Farm Payrolls data reflecting coronavirus crisis
US jobs report post-release checklist – Mar 6th, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||Very upbeat headline figures, with 273K job gain in February, way over 175K expectations.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||January job growth number was revised upwards, from 225K to 273K.|
U3 unemployment rate went down from 3.6% to 3.5%, but U6 underemployment rose a bit, from 6.9% to 7.0%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Neutral||The share of people in the workforce stayed at 63.4% in February.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Neutral||Mixed figures in the wage data, with the yearly figures (3.0%) coming down while the monthly ones going up a tad (0.4%).|
March US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for February was much better than expected, coming in with 273,000 jobs created vs a revised January number to 273,000 (from 225,000) as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in February from 3.6% in January.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Mar 6th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||January was a positive month for the US labor market, with a 225k job gain. The number comfortably beat expectations, triggering a +1.52 deviation number.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Neutral||The number of corporate layoffs in February as 56.66K, down from the 67.735K figure of January but still on the high-end of the recent range.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||The 4-week moving average in the Initial Jobless Claims seems to have found a bottom, ticking up from below 210K to 213K in the last release.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Positive||The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits is still close to all-time lows, showing no rising signs.|
|ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||Positive||The employment index in the main US service-sector business survey has risen to 55.6, the highest figure since last August.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||Employment sub-component in the ISM Manufacturing PMI ticked a bit higher, from 46.6 to 46.9, the second consecutive rise, but still in contraction territory.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||UMich consumer survey shows unfazed confidence in its February reading, as the index has risen above 100 for the first time since September 2018.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||CB consumer survey is stable around a healthy 130 level, not showing much change in the last couple of months.|
|ADP Employment Report||Neutral||The private payroll survey showed a 183K job gain in February, beating the 170K expectation. January's figures were revised down from 291K to 209K, though.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Negative||Job openings have been notably cut down in the last couple of releases: from 7.36M in October down to 6.42M in December, the last month reported.|
February US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy began the New Year in fine fashion creating far more employment in January than forecast and bringing wages to their longest string of gains since the financial crisis. Non-farm payrolls added 225,000 new positions, well beyond the 160,000 median estimate with warm weather in much of the country enabling 44,000 construction jobs, more than double last year’s monthly average of 12,000, according to Labor Department data on Friday. Revisions for November’s totals added 5,000 to 256,000 and December 2,000 to 147,000.
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
America is still hiring – but offers fewer jobs with lower pay. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2019 has dropped below expectations with an increase of 145,000 against 164,000 expected and higher whisper numbers – given upbeat data leading into the event. Moreover, downward revisions to previous months shed 15,000 jobs.
The US economy created fewer jobs than forecast in December and less in total than in the prior year but employers have now added workers for a record decade and unemployment remained at a 50 year record. American firms hired 145,000 new workers last month, and revisions to the two prior months lowered totals by 14,000...
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US reported 266,000 jobs gained, better than expected. Markets have sent the dollar higher, but the moves are limited. Fed doves have enough ammunition to signal the next move is cutting rates.