Help wanted, and much more of it – that is what the Nonfarm Payrolls report tells markets about the state of the hiring in America. Contrary to most Nonfarm Payrolls reports, the verdict on this one is clear – a monster report.
Impressive July jobs report revive hawkish Fed bets
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 528,000 in July, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed June's increase of 398,000 (revised from 372,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 250,000. The Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.5%.
US jobs report post-release checklist – August 5th, 2022
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||The US economy added 528K jobs in July, better than the 250K expected.|
|NFP Revisions||Neutral||June figure slightly revised upward to 398K from 372K.|
U3 unemployment rate stayed at 3.5% a bit lower than expected, the U6 underemployment came as expected wwith 6.7%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Neutral||The share of people in the workforce is a tick down to 62.1%.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||Montly change in wages came out at 0.5%, better than expected, while yearly wages remained unchanged at 5.2%, better than the 4.9% expected.|
JULY US JOBS REPORT Preview
Sell the whisper, buy the fact? Paraphrasing one of the most common market patterns, I believe that real expectations for Nonfarm Payroll are above what is seen on the calendar, raising the chances of a disappointment.
Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article, we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAUUSD pair's reaction to the previous 24 NFP prints.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – July 8th, 2022
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 390K jobs in May, better than the 325K expected.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Negative||The number of corporate layoffs increased in June to 32.517K, the first time in 15 months above 30K.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||Three of the last four weekly unemployment claims releases have been worse than expected, with the week ending on June 24 seeing 231K first-time claimers.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||The number of employment seekers has surprised negatively three of the last four weeks, but is still near all-time lows.|
|ISM Services PMI||Negative||The employment sub-index for the main service-sector survey in the US has been lower than expected in the last three months, and way below 50 in June.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||The employment sub-index for the main survey in the US manufacturing sector came at 47.3, worse than the 50.2 expected, and in the red for the third consecutive month.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||US consumer sentiment has collapsed below post-Global Financial Crisis levels, down to 50 in June.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative|
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® is also going down, back below 100 for the first time since January 2021.
|ADP Employment Report||---||US private-sector employment report will not be published during the summer months as ADP re-evaluates the way it estimates the data.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||The job openings number is still very close to all-time highs, still above 11M job offers in May.|
JUNE US JOBS REPORT Review
Good news is bad news – for stocks, but not the dollar, and more may be in store. The US has reported another impressive month of job growth, 372,000 in June, on top of only a minor downward revision of 6,000 for May.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 372,000 in June, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed May's increase of 384,000 (revised from 390,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 268,000.
May US JOBS REPORT Review
The US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, according to the latest Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday. That was above the median economist forecast for a gain of 325,000 jobs, though slightly lower versus April's 436,000 gain (revised up from 428,000).
Two months of weaker than expected wage increases in a row – is the most important thing for the Federal Reserve, which is fighting inflation. The rest is less important. The US gained 390,000 jobs in May, better than 328,000 expected, but on top of downward revisions.
April US JOBS REPORT Review
The US economy added 428,000 jobs in April, according to the latest Non-farm Payrolls report released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday. That was a little above the median economist forecast for a gain of 391,000 jobs, and exactly in line with pace of jobs gains in March (which was revised lower to 428,000 from 431,000).
Everybody gets a raise – whether it is the Great Resignation or not-so-great factors, Americans' salaries are rising on a broad base. The headline Average Hourly Earnings MoM has missed with only 0.3% vs. 0.4%. However, it came on top of an upward revision to last month's figure – 0.5% reported now vs. 0.4% in the original publication.
March US JOBS REPORT Review
America is hiring – while the headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure missed estimates with 431,000 vs. 490,000 projected, revisions add 95,000, more than compensating for the marginally worse than projected figure. In comparison to the pre-pandemic levels of around 200,000 per month, the labor market is extremely healthy.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 431,000 in March, below the median economist forecast for a 490,000 rise, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. However, the February Non-Farm Payrolls number received a hefty 72,000 upwards revision to 750,000 from 678,000, more than making up for the 59,000 miss on the March headline expected number.
February US JOBS REPORT Review
As if the dollar needs another boost – February's Nonfarm Payrolls have confirmed that the US labor market is on fire. The economy is benefiting from the retreat of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which further cements the first pandemic-era rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The war will not stop the central bank.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 678K in February, well above the median economist forecast for a 400K rise, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. January's NFP number also saw a small upwards revision to 481K from 467K.
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy is on fire – there is no other way to interpret the Nonfarm Payrolls report for January 2022. The economy gained 467,000 jobs, roughly triple the early expectations – and on top of a revision worth more than 300K for December.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 467K in January versus the median forecast for a 150K rise, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. That marked a slight deceleration from December's pace of job gains when 503K jobs were added (revised up from 199K).