Disappointing, but not a disaster – August's Nonfarm Payrolls figures have badly disappointed, yet mostly related to the Delta covid variant. That shall pass.
NFP miss with 235K
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 235,000 in August, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed July's increase of 1.05 million but missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin.
US jobs report post-release checklist – Sep 3rd, 2021
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||The US economy added 235K jobs in August, a dismal figure compared to the 750K expectations.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||July figure revised upwards from 943K to 1053K.|
U3 unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%, the best mark since March 2015, while the U6 underemployment also continued its recovery down to 8.8%, not seen since pre-pandemic period.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce stayed at 61.7%, one tick better than expected.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||Monthly wage gains up to 0.6%, yearly wages also rose to a 4.3% increase, much better than the 4.0% expected|
August US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
The monthly Non Farm Payrolls report in the United States never lacks for drama, but the Federal Reserve’s incipient bond taper has made the expectations...
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August jobs report on Friday, September 3. Following an increase of 943,000 in July...
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Sep 3rd, 2021
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 943K jobs in July, much better than the 870K expected.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||Corporate layoffs are at all-time lows, below 16K in August.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||First-time employment claims have restarted the gradual improvement seen for the last year, averaging 355K for the last four weeks.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Neutral||The unemployment-benefit claimants' keep falling, now below 3M for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, but the recovery has been slower than expected.|
|ISM Services PMI||Neutral||The employment section of the US main service sector survey is not leading but lagging NFP this month, being released 90 minutes after the jobs report.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||The manufacturing sector of the US economy dipped back to contraction territory at 49 in August, a 10-month low.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The UMich consumer sentiment survey collapsed to 70.3 in August, a bigger than 10-point fall all the way down to a new post-pandemic low.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® also went down to 113.8, a 15-point fall down to a five-month low.|
|ADP Employment Report||Negative||Private sector employment report showed a 374K job gain in August, way below the 613K expectations, a second-consecutive disppointment.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Although lagging by nature, the JOLTS indicator keeps making all-time highs, printing over 10M openings in June as US employers struggle to fill their payrolls.|
July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
One million new jobs – when summing up July's better-than-expected 943,000 and the 88,000 upward revision to June's figure, this midsummer Nonfarm Payrolls is sizzling hot.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 943,000 in July, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed June's increase of 938,000 (revised from 850,000) and surpassed the market expectation of 870,000.
June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Is the lack of a presidential press conference a sign of strong jobs numbers? In the past two Nonfarm Payrolls reports, the White House pre-scheduled public appearance by President Joe Biden. Both figures missed.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 850,000 in June, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed May's print of 583,000 (revised from 559,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 700,000.
May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Another month, another increase that would be tremendous before the pandemic – but now it points to a slow recovery. The world´s largest economy gained only 559,000 jobs in May, below 664,000 expected and under the marginally higher whisper numbers. ADP´s data raised estimates.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 559,000 in May, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed April's print of 278,000 (revised from 266,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 650,000.
April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Are seasonal adjustment responsible for the poor number? That is one explanation used to explain the bitter disappointment in April's Nonfarm Payrolls – an increase of only 266,000 jobs instead of nearly one million expected.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose only by 266,000 in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed March's increase of 770,000 (revised from 916,000) and missed the market expectation of 978,000 by a wide margin.