Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 638,000 in October, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed September's increase of 672,000 (revised from 661,000) and beat the market expectation of 600,000.
The US will release October employment figures this Friday. The Nonfarm Payroll report is expected to show that the economy added 600K positions, while the unemployment rate is foreseen declining from 7.9% to 7.7%.
Payrolls forecast to expand 600,000 in October from 661,000. Unemployment rate expected to drop to 7.7% from 7.9%. Markets could respond to better data despite election turmoil.
Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.
A V-shaped recovery? White House adviser Larry Kudlow still touted a rapid bounce as late as two weeks ago – but the shape of the labor market already looks like an L or Nike swoosh. The sharp fall due to coronavirus is turning from a temporary shutdown into more permanent job losses.
The US economy gained 4.8 million jobs in June, better than expected. Data is from early June when the US economy was reopening at a rapid pace. A raging second wave of coronavirus cases is set to hit employment, including in the long term.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside once again, but doubts about the sustainability remain prevalent. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss the market reaction, the state of coronavirus, politics, and more as a hot summer begins. Are the plumbers making progress?
EUR/USD has stabilized around 1.19 after the ECB meeting minutes pointed to some caution about expanding the bond-buying scheme. Earlier, the dollar weakened after the Fed signaled openness to more QE. The US holiday implies thin volume.
GBP/USD retreats from near 1.3400, undermined by Brexit woes and renewed dollar demand. Doubts arise about Chief EU Negotiator Barnier traveling to London.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) continues its gradual grind higher for a second day, the precious metal having bounced at support at the psychological $1800 mark on Tuesday, following a hefty sell-off at the start of the week that saw spot prices drop from the high $1800s.
A triple dose of US data on Wednesday before the Thanksgiving holiday confirmed the strength of the consumer recovery even as employment problems again loom from the rising numbers of Covid-19 closures across the country.
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NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.
The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.
During NFP data release, spreads first fall apart and recover slowly afterwards as market calms down.
The Non Farm Payrolls report is arguably one of biggest market movers in the Forex. Since the NFP report is scheduled this coming week, I thought it would be good for us to take a closer look at this fundamental giant.
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.
