NonFarm Payrolls

US April jobs report underscores tight labor market conditions

US jobs report post-release checklist – April 1st, 2022

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive The US economy added 428K jobs in April, better than the 391K expected.
NFP Revisions Neutral February figure slightly revised downward to 428,000 from 431,000.
Unemployment rate Negative

U3 unemployment rate stayed at 3.6% while expected to decrease, the U6 underemployment increased a bit to 7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Negative The share of people in the workforce down to 62.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings Negative Montly change in wages came out at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) and previous data (0.5%).


April US JOBS REPORT Preview

US jobs report pre-release checklist – March 31st, 2022

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls Negative The US economy added just 431K jobs in February, lower than the 490K expected.
Challenger Job Cuts Neutral Corporate layoffs increased to 24.29K from 21.38K in April. The number of job cuts seems to have finally bottomed out.
Initial Jobless Claims Negative Three of the last four weekly unemployment claims releases have been worse than expected, with the week ending on April 29 seeing 200K first-time claimers.
Continuing Jobless Claims Positive The number of employment seekers continues its slow decrease, now at 1.384M, close again to the all-time low.
ISM Services PMI Negative The employment sub-index for the main service-sector survey in the US is back below 50, contraction territory, indicating hiring confidence for businesses is slowing down.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Negative The employment sub-index for the main survey in the US manufacturing sector came at 50.9, way below expectations, even if it still is just above the neutral line of 50.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Negative US consumer sentiment has been heavily spooked by huge inflation numbers and the UMich survey keeps showing it, third time in the last four months below expectations.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Negative

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® has managed to stay afloat a bit better than the UMich one but still released a worse-than-expected (107.3 vs 107.6) figure in April.

ADP Employment Report Negative
US private sector employment report shows a job increase of 247K in April, way worse than the 395K expected.
JOLTS Job Openings Positive The job openings number keeps rising in the United States to all-time highs. Despite being a lagging indicator, how good can it be that 11.5M jobs in March were not filled in the US?



February US JOBS REPORT Review





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The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.