NonFarm Payrolls


NFP miss with 235K

US jobs report post-release checklist – Sep 3rd, 2021

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Negative The US economy added 235K jobs in August, a dismal figure compared to the 750K expectations.
NFP Revisions Positive July figure revised upwards from 943K to 1053K.
Unemployment rate Positive

U3 unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%, the best mark since March 2015, while the U6 underemployment also continued its recovery down to 8.8%, not seen since pre-pandemic period.

Labor Force Participation Rate Positive The share of people in the workforce stayed at 61.7%, one tick better than expected.
Average Hourly Earnings Positive Monthly wage gains up to 0.6%, yearly wages also rose to a 4.3% increase, much better than the 4.0% expected

 

August US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Sep 3rd, 2021

Previous Non-Farm PayrollsPositiveThe US economy added 943K jobs in July, much better than the 870K expected.
Challenger Job CutsPositiveCorporate layoffs are at all-time lows, below 16K in August. 
Initial Jobless Claims PositiveFirst-time employment claims have restarted the gradual improvement seen for the last year, averaging 355K for the last four weeks.
Continuing Jobless Claims NeutralThe unemployment-benefit claimants' keep falling, now below 3M for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, but the recovery has been slower than expected.
ISM Services PMI NeutralThe employment section of the US main service sector survey is not leading but lagging NFP this month, being released 90 minutes after the jobs report.
ISM Manufacturing PMI NegativeThe manufacturing sector of the US economy dipped back to contraction territory at 49 in August, a 10-month low.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index NegativeThe UMich consumer sentiment survey collapsed to 70.3 in August, a bigger than 10-point fall all the way down to a new post-pandemic low.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index NegativeThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® also went down to 113.8, a 15-point fall down to a five-month low.
ADP Employment Report Negative
Private sector employment report showed a 374K job gain in August, way below the 613K expectations, a second-consecutive disppointment.
JOLTS Job Openings PositiveAlthough lagging by nature, the JOLTS indicator keeps making all-time highs, printing over 10M openings in June as US employers struggle to fill their payrolls. 

 

July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW

June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW



April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW

Breaking: US adds 266,000 jobs in April vs. 978,000 expected

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose only by 266,000 in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed March's increase of 770,000 (revised from 916,000) and missed the market expectation of 978,000 by a wide margin.

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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.