Payrolls forecast to add 180,000 jobs in February. Economic and labor data points in two directions. ADP private payrolls, Services PMI weaker than expected. Manufacturing PMI, first quarter GDP predict strong growth. Markets are expectant of better US economic data.
NFP: How fast is America rehiring workers?
Initial Claims expected to climb to 750,000 from 730,000. Claims fell more than 100,000 for the second time this year last week. Continuing claims at 4.419 million were lowest of the pandemic. Texas and Mississippi announce full economic reopening. Markets and the dollar keying on US data.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Feb 5th, 2021
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||The US economy lost 140K jobs in December, way worse than the 71K gain expected, derailing the post-pandemic job market recovery.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Neutral||Corporate layoffs in the United States have stabilized just below 80K per month in the last two releases, just a bit over the usual pre-pandemic levels.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Neutral||First-time employment claims 4-week average has stabilized above 800K, halting the job recovery despite five of the last seven releases bettering expectations.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Positive||The unemployment-benefit claimants' downtrend is still relentless, falling below 5 million for the first time since COVID-19 halted the economic activity.|
|ISM Services PMI||Positive||The labor sub-index in the US main service survey rallied in January to 55.2, the highest level since last February.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index in the US main manufacturing survey keeps rising, hitting 52.6 in January, the highest level since June 2019.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The UMich consumer sentiment survey has remained stuck around the 80 mark since the pandemic struck, way below pre-covid levels.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved a bit in January from 88.6 to 89.3 but is still below 90, close to the post-covid bottom.|
|ADP Employment Report||Positive||Private sector employment bounced back in January, back in positive territory as it printed a 174K job gain. It is only the second better-than-expected release in the last seven for this highly correlated to NFP indicator.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Hiring recovered in the last JOLTS release (October), although the lagging nature of this indicator makes it less decisive for evaluating NFP.|
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact\' – that has been one of the consistent trading patterns through the decades and perhaps the centuries. January 2021's NFP has proved no different.
American employers resumed hiring in January and the unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low as California ended its lockdown and viral rates fell across the country. Nonfarm payrolls add 49,000 positions in January as forecast.
US jobs report post-release checklist – Feb 5th, 2021
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||The US economy just added 49K jobs in January, slightly worse than the 50K expected.|
|NFP Revisions||Negative||December figure revised downwards from -140K to -227K.|
U3 unemployment rate went down to 6.3%, better than the 6.7% expected. U6 underemployment rate down from 11.7% to 11.1%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Negative||The share of people in the workforce decreased a tad from 61.5% to 61.4%.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Neutral||Yearly wages stayed at 5.4%, bettering 5.1% expectations, while monthly figures disappointed with 0.2%, worse than 0.3% expected.|
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected. The virus has been raging in the last month of 2020 and government support was still in the works. Revisions added 135,000 to the previous two months, but the most recent figure is more worrying.
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.
October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.
September US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.