Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US fell by 140,000 in December, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed November's increase of 336,000 (revised from 245,000) and missed the market expectation of +71,000 by a wide margin.
Nonfarm Payrolls show loss of -140K jobs
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected.
US jobs report post-release checklist – Jan 8th, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||The US economy lost 140K jobs in December, much worse than the 71K gain expected.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||November figure revised upwards from 245K to 336K.|
U3 unemployment rate stayed at 6.7, better than the 6.8% expected. U6 underemployment rate down a tad from 12% to 11.7%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Neutral||The share of people in the workforce remained stable at 61.5%.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||Both the yearly (5.1%) and the monthly (0.8%) wage growth figures bettered expectations (4.4% and 0.2% respectively), as the lost jobs were mostly underpaid.|
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Jan 8th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||The US economy added 245K jobs in November, nearly just half of expectations and accelerating the downtrend of the post-pandemic labor market recovery.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Negative||The number of corporate layoffs increased in December, with 77K jobs lost from 64.8K in November.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||First-time employment claims 4-week average has been on the rise for the last two releases, back above 800K, showing the worsening condition of US job market.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Positive||The downtrend of unemployment-benefit claimants seems relentless, falling below 5.5 million for the first time since COVID-19 halted the economic activity.|
|ISM Services PMI||Negative||The labor sub-index in the US main service survey decreased back to contraction territory, below 50 levels, the worst figure in the last four months.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index in the US main manufacturing survey bounced back to above 50 levels in December, back in expansion territory.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The UMich consumer sentiment survey has remained stuck around the 80 mark since the pandemic struck, way below pre-covid levels.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® registered its third consecutive negative month, back below 90, showing that US consumers are still wary of spending too much.|
|ADP Employment Report||Negative
||Private sector employment printed a dismal 123K loss of jobs in December, hinting at a dismal NFP figure for the same month.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Hiring recovered in the last JOLTS release (October), although the lagging nature of this indicator makes it less decisive for evaluating NFP.|
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.
October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.
September US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.