Is the lack of a presidential press conference a sign of strong jobs numbers? In the past two Nonfarm Payrolls reports, the White House pre-scheduled public appearance by President Joe Biden. Both figures missed.
Nonfarm Payrolls rise 850K
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 850,000 in June, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed May's print of 583,000 (revised from 559,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 700,000.
US jobs report post-release checklist – Jun 4th, 2021
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||The US economy added 850K jobs in June, much better than the 700K expectations.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||May figure revised upwards from 559K to 583K.|
U3 unemployment rate retraced a bit, rising unexpectedly from 5.8% to 5.9%. U6 underemployment rate down below 10% for the first time since the pandemic struck.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Neutral||The share of people in the workforce stayed at 61.6%.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Neutral||Monthly wage gains stable at 0.3%, yearly wages back to regular growth levels at 3.6%, just a tick below the 3.7% expected.|
June US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
Time for King Dollar to be knocked off the throne? June's highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report – due on July 2 and ahead of a long weekend – could provide other currencies an opportunity to bring the greenback back to the ground.
Nonfarm Payrolls in US is expected to rise by 690,000 in June. There is a strong correlation between surprising NFP prints and major pairs' immediate movements. Investors are likely to react to a disappointing NFP more strongly than a positive reading.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Jul 2nd, 2021
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||The US economy added 559K jobs in May, worse than the 650K expected.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||US corporate layoffs were just 20,476K, setting a new multi-year low in June.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||First-time employment claims continue their decline, with jobless petitions 4-week moving average falling below 400K for the first time since the pandemic struck.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Neutral||The unemployment-benefit claimants' downtrend has slowed down, but claims have fallen below 3.5M in June for the first time since the covid pandemic.|
|ISM Services PMI||Negative||The employment section of the US main service sector survey dipped in May to 55.3 after hitting a three-year peak in April.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||The manufacturing sector of the US economy seems to be slowing down, as the ISM Manufacturing Employment index has dipped down just below 50, back to contraction territory.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The UMich consumer sentiment survey is still on an uptrend but printed a worse-than-expected 85.5 rating in June.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® is showing more clearly the US consumer optimism, as the index has recovered above 125, nearing its pre-pandemic levels.|
|ADP Employment Report||Positive
||Private sector employment gains showed a 978K job gain in May, an excellent figure that hints at a strong NFP report if high correlation between the two is to be confirmed.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Although lagging by nature, the JOLTS indicator is reaching all-time highs, printing over 9M openings in April as US employers look to fill their payrolls.|
May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Another month, another increase that would be tremendous before the pandemic – but now it points to a slow recovery. The world´s largest economy gained only 559,000 jobs in May, below 664,000 expected and under the marginally higher whisper numbers. ADP´s data raised estimates.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 559,000 in May, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed April's print of 278,000 (revised from 266,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 650,000.
April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Are seasonal adjustment responsible for the poor number? That is one explanation used to explain the bitter disappointment in April's Nonfarm Payrolls – an increase of only 266,000 jobs instead of nearly one million expected.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose only by 266,000 in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed March's increase of 770,000 (revised from 916,000) and missed the market expectation of 978,000 by a wide margin.
March US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all about expectations – with headlines such as "the highest since 1983" shaping estimates and the market reaction. The US economy gained no fewer than 916,000 jobs in March, the highest since October.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 916,000 in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed February's increase of 468,000 (revised from 379,000) and came in much better than the market expectation of 647,000.
February US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Big surprise – albeit not for all – in the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February. The world's largest economy gained 379,000 jobs, around double the early estimates of 182,000. Moreover, it is topped off by upward revisions worth 159,000.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 379,000 in February, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed January's increase of 166,000 (revised from 49,000) and beat the market expectation of 182,000 by a wide margin.
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact\' – that has been one of the consistent trading patterns through the decades and perhaps the centuries. January 2021's NFP has proved no different.
American employers resumed hiring in January and the unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low as California ended its lockdown and viral rates fell across the country. Nonfarm payrolls add 49,000 positions in January as forecast.
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected. The virus has been raging in the last month of 2020 and government support was still in the works. Revisions added 135,000 to the previous two months, but the most recent figure is more worrying.
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.