Are seasonal adjustment responsible for the poor number? That is one explanation used to explain the bitter disappointment in April's Nonfarm Payrolls – an increase of only 266,000 jobs instead of nearly one million expected.
US gains only 266K jobs in April, causing a market rethink
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose only by 266,000 in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed March's increase of 770,000 (revised from 916,000) and missed the market expectation of 978,000 by a wide margin.
US jobs report post-release checklist – May 7th, 2021
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||The US economy added just 266K jobs in April, much lower than the 978K expected|
|NFP Revisions||Negative||March figure was also revised downwards from 916K to 770K.|
U3 unemployment rate came also underperformed, unexpectedly jumping a tick from 6% to 6.1%. U6 underemployment light decreases to 10.4%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce increased from 61.5% to 61.7%|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||Yearly wages overperformed -0.4% expectations by gaining 0.%$, monthly pay-rise figures increased from -0.1% to 0.7%.|
April US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
The US labor market’s stars are aligned for April.The economy is expanding rapidly, employers are confident and consumers eager to throw off the restraints of the past year.
US economy is expected to add nearly 1 million jobs in April. Wage inflation will be one of the key elements of the jobs report. USD is likely to gather strength against its rivals on an upbeat NFP reading.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – May 7th, 2021
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 916K jobs in March, job growth picking up steam as the pandemic fades in the United States.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||US corporate layoffs continued to diminish in April, with just 22.9K jobs lost, the lowest mark in the last ten years.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||First-time employment claims are also on the decline, with jobless petitions falling below 600K in the week ending on April 30 for the first since the pandemic struck.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Neutral||The unemployment-benefit claimants' downtrend has slowed down during the last month, with figures plateauing a bit above 3.6M, still twice as higher than pre-pandemic levels.|
|ISM Services PMI||Positive||The labor sub-index in the US main service survey rallied came out at 58.8 (better than 55 expected), reaching its highest level since September 2018.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||The employment sub-index in the US main manufacturing survey finally retraced from three-year highs in March to a still-healthy 55.1 figure in April.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||The UMich consumer sentiment survey is finally showing signs of optimism, reading 88.3, a post-pandemic high.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® also rallied, from 109.7 to 121.7, just ten points below where it was in February 2020.|
|ADP Employment Report||Neutral||Private sector employment gains rose to 742K in April, the biggest figure in the last eight releases, but a bit below the 800K job gain expectations.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Although lagging by nature, the JOLTS indicator is also already reflecting the post-pandemic recovery, showing 7.367M job vacancies in February highest since January 2019.|
March US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all about expectations – with headlines such as "the highest since 1983" shaping estimates and the market reaction. The US economy gained no fewer than 916,000 jobs in March, the highest since October.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 916,000 in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed February's increase of 468,000 (revised from 379,000) and came in much better than the market expectation of 647,000.
February US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Big surprise – albeit not for all – in the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February. The world's largest economy gained 379,000 jobs, around double the early estimates of 182,000. Moreover, it is topped off by upward revisions worth 159,000.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 379,000 in February, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed January's increase of 166,000 (revised from 49,000) and beat the market expectation of 182,000 by a wide margin.
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact\' – that has been one of the consistent trading patterns through the decades and perhaps the centuries. January 2021's NFP has proved no different.
American employers resumed hiring in January and the unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low as California ended its lockdown and viral rates fell across the country. Nonfarm payrolls add 49,000 positions in January as forecast.
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected. The virus has been raging in the last month of 2020 and government support was still in the works. Revisions added 135,000 to the previous two months, but the most recent figure is more worrying.
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.