The US economy gained 4.8 million jobs in June, better than expected. Data is from early June when the US economy was reopening at a rapid pace. A raging second wave of coronavirus cases is set to hit employment, including in the long term.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside once again, but doubts about the sustainability remain prevalent. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss the market reaction, the state of coronavirus, politics, and more as a hot summer begins. Are the plumbers making progress?
Perhaps a bit of sympathy is due the economists trying to predict the course of the labor market over the past three months. The novelty and excess of the employment collapse took econometric models far beyond historical precedent...
US Federal Reserve’s head Powell said that data had shown signs of improvement. The US is expected to show that it recovered 3 million jobs in June. The American dollar could fall with a positive report, mainly if Wall Street keeps running.
Shocker – but a positive one – America is getting back to work, or at least receiving support while staying at home and remaining officially on the payroll. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for May was initially hard to believe – all those surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters had foreseen a loss of positions in May and the US gained 2.509 million jobs.
The labor market collapse reversed in May as a totally unexpected gain in employment underlined the resilience of the American economy and the positive impact of the government’s efforts under the $2 trillion Payroll Protection Program to keep people at work. Non-farm payrolls rose by 2.54 million last month, a vast improvement from the 20.5 million who were furloughed in April and less than half the -8 million forecast.
The worst Non-Farm Payrolls report in history – 20.5 jobs lost and an unemployment rate of 14.7% – is shocking but investors were already bracing for disaster. The lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus have taken their toll. The headline figures are devastating, but other statistics already paint an even darker picture.
The US labor market collapse in April surpassed all previous records for job losses but markets have already turned to the future as reopening states spur economic revival hopes. Payrolls dropped by 20.5 million, less than the 22 million estimate and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the highest since 1939 and the end of the Great Depression and just before the Second World War rearmed the US economy.
"Like a hurricane hitting the whole country" – one of the reactions to the Non-Farm Payrolls report that showed a loss of 701,000 jobs, seven times worse than expected. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%, also worse than expected. It is the worst report since March 2009. The bad news may be only the very beginning, the tip of the iceberg.
American NFP shed 701,000 jobs in March, more that the worst loss during the financial crisis and surprising markets with the Labor Department’s ability to capture the rapid job losses. Economists had predicted just 100,000 firings, expecting the full accounting to be delayed until April as the US slows drastically from the economic impact of the Coronavirus.
The American job market looks great – or at least that was the picture in February. There is nothing not to like in the data. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 273,000, smashing expectations, while wages advanced by healthy rates of 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY.
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for February was much better than expected, coming in with 273,000 jobs created vs a revised January number to 273,000 (from 225,000) as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in February from 3.6% in January.
EUR/USD is trading around 1.13, off the highs as concerns about coronavirus and the court decision to hand Trump's financial to a grand jury trigger political uncertainty. US jobless claims beat expectations.
GBP/USD is trading around 1.26, off the highs. The risk-off mood has pushed the dollar higher and is weighing on GBP/USD. UK fiscal stimulus and Brexit are also in play.
Crude oil and equity prices tumbled during the American session, ending a period or relatively limited moves across financial markets. WTI fell from $40.80 a barrel to $39.25, reaching the lowest level in a week. Earlier, it approached $41.00.
Gold has retraced on Thursday during the US session after the recent impressive rally. At the moment the market is grappling with the USD 1800 per troy ounce psychological level.
Second-line Altcoins take turns offering explosive price hikes. Bitcoin is giving up ground in the struggle for dominance, but it is not Ethereum that collects the profits. Ripple manages to enter the safe zone and bets on the upward continuity.
NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.
The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.
During NFP data release, spreads first fall apart and recover slowly afterwards as market calms down.
The Non Farm Payrolls report is arguably one of biggest market movers in the Forex. Since the NFP report is scheduled this coming week, I thought it would be good for us to take a closer look at this fundamental giant.
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.
