Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 638,000 in October, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed September's increase of 672,000 (revised from 661,000) and beat the market expectation of 600,000.
NFP beats expectations with a rise of 638K
US jobs report post-release checklist – Nov 6th, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||The US economy added 638K jobs in October, a bit better than the 600K expected.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||September figure revised upwards, from 661K to 672K.|
U3 unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 6.9%, overcoming expectations of 7.7%. U6 underemployment rate also down from 12.8% to 12.1%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce expanded from 61.4% to 61.7%, matching the post-pandemic high.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Negative||Both the yearly (4.5%) and the monthly (0.1%) wage growth figures disappointed expectations (4.6% and 0.2% respectively).|
November US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
The US will release October employment figures this Friday. The Nonfarm Payroll report is expected to show that the economy added 600K positions, while the unemployment rate is foreseen declining from 7.9% to 7.7%.
Payrolls forecast to expand 600,000 in October from 661,000. Unemployment rate expected to drop to 7.7% from 7.9%. Markets could respond to better data despite election turmoil.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Nov 6th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||The US economy added 661K jobs in September, way worse than expected and less than half the number in August.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||The number of corporate layoffs has retraced again in October (80.66K), down below 100K for the first time since the pandemic struck.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||First-time employment claims resumed the post-pandemic downtrend in the last couple of weeks, finally breaking below 800K per week.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Positive||The number of unemployment benefit claimants downtrend has accelerated in the last month, from more than 11M to below 8M in the week ending on Oct 16.|
|ISM Services PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index in the US main services survey has now registered two consecutive months of expansion.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index in the US main manufacturing survey has accelerated its recovery, jumping to expansion territory in October for the first time since July 2019.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||The UMich consumer sentiment survey continued its slow recovery in October, rising from 80.4 to 81.8, still far from pre-pandemic levels.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® has seen its recovery halted in October, although it stays above 100.|
|ADP Employment Report||Negative||Private sector employment just added 365K jobs in October, much lower than the 650K expected.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Neutral||The hiring recovery slowed down in August, printing 6.49M job openings, down from 6.697M from July, but still way up from the numbers seen during the spring months.|
October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.
September US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.
August US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
A V-shaped recovery? White House adviser Larry Kudlow still touted a rapid bounce as late as two weeks ago – but the shape of the labor market already looks like an L or Nike swoosh. The sharp fall due to coronavirus is turning from a temporary shutdown into more permanent job losses.
July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy gained 4.8 million jobs in June, better than expected. Data is from early June when the US economy was reopening at a rapid pace. A raging second wave of coronavirus cases is set to hit employment, including in the long term.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside once again, but doubts about the sustainability remain prevalent. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss the market reaction, the state of coronavirus, politics, and more as a hot summer begins. Are the plumbers making progress?