NonFarm Payrolls


US Nonfarm Payrolls surge by 379K in February

US jobs report post-release checklist – Mar 5th, 2021

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation PositiveThe US economy added a massive 379K jobs in February, finally getting back the labor market on the recovery trail.
NFP Revisions PositiveJanuary figure was also revised upwards from 49K to 166K.
Unemployment ratePositive

U3 unemployment rate went down from 6.3 to 6.2%, better than expected. U6 underemployment stayed at 11.1%.

Labor Force Participation Rate NeutralThe share of people in the workforce remained stable at 61.4%.
Average Hourly EarningsNeutralYearly wages stayed at 5.3% while monthly pay-rise figures increased, as expected, from 0.1% to 0.2%.

 

February US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Mar 5th, 2021

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls Negative The US economy just added 49K jobs in January, missing expectations for the third consecutive month.
Challenger Job Cuts Positive US corporate layoffs have finally returned to normal, pre-pandemic levels, with just about 34.5K jobs cut in February. 
Initial Jobless Claims Positive First-time employment claims finally hinted at some positives in the weekend ending on February 19th, falling below 800K for the first time in 2021.
Continuing Jobless Claims Positive The unemployment-benefit claimants' downtrend is still relentless, falling below 4.5 million for the first time since COVID-19 halted the economic activity.
ISM Services PMI Positive The labor sub-index in the US main service survey rallied came out at 52.7 (better than 51.7 expected), staying in positive territory for the fourth time in the last five months.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Positive The employment sub-index in the US main manufacturing survey keeps drawing its V-shaped recovery, rallying to 54.4 in February, highest level since March 2019.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Negative The UMich consumer sentiment survey has remained stuck around the 80 mark since the pandemic struck, way below pre-covid levels.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Neutral The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved a bit in February from 89.3 to 91.3 but is still way below 100, not far from the post-covid bottom.
ADP Employment Report Negative
Private sector employment disappointed in February. The highest-correlated event to NFP printed a 117K job gain, way below the 177K expected.
JOLTS Job Openings Neutral Hiring recovery has been halted in the last JOLTS releases around 6.5M job openings, although the lagging nature of this indicator makes it less decisive for evaluating NFP. 

 

January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW

NFP Quick Analysis: Stocks set to fall as sub 8% jobless rate lowers chances for stimulus

Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.




September US JOBS REPORT REVIEW

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GBP/USD recovers after post-NFP dip below 1.38

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US Dollar Index pushes higher to 92.20 on stellar Payrolls

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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.