America is still hiring – but offers fewer jobs with lower pay. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2019 has dropped below expectations with an increase of 145,000 against 164,000 expected and higher whisper numbers – given upbeat data leading into the event. Moreover, downward revisions to previous months shed 15,000 jobs.
Nonfarm Payrolls Data release
US jobs report post-release checklist – Jan 10th, 2019
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||Headline job-growth number from December disappointed with a 145K print, below 164K expectations.|
|NFP Revisions||Negative||November figure also revised lower, from 266K to 256K.|
U3 Unemployment Rate stayed at 3.5% as expected, with U6 Underemployment Rate falling from 6.9% to 6.7%, a positive development.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Neutral||The share of people in the workforce stayed put in December at 63.2%.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Negative||The biggest disappointment came from wage data, as both YoY (2.9%, 3.1% expected) and MoM (0.1%, 0.3% expected) figures missed expectations.|
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy created fewer jobs than forecast in December and less in total than in the prior year but employers have now added workers for a record decade and unemployment remained at a 50 year record. American firms hired 145,000 new workers last month, and revisions to the two prior months lowered totals by 14,000...
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Jan 10th, 2019
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||November's 266k job growth was the biggest in the last 10 months, triggering a meaningful +2.57 deviation.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||The number of corporate layoffs went down in December to 32.843K from 44.6K in November.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||The 4-week moving average for the number of first-time employment claimants went down from 233.5K to 224K, a positive development in the last month.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||The number of individuals currently receiving unemployment benefits has risen in three of the last five weeks, with four consecutive worse-than-expected releases.|
|ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||Neutral||Employment sub-component in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI retraced a bit in December, from 55.5 to 55.2, still way into expansion territory.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||Employment sub-component in the ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed for the fourth month in a row, printing a modest 45.1, way into contraction territory.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||UMich consumer survey rose to 99.3 in December, very close to its multi-year highs.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||CB consumer survey showed a small retracement from 126.8 to 126.5 in December, keeping its 4-month range between 125 and 127 levels.|
|ADP Employment Report||Positive||The leading indicator most correlated to the NFP printed an encouraging 202k job gain for December, a 7-month high.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||Job openings rose to 7.267 million in October, just the second month showing a positive trend within the last seven.|
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US reported 266,000 jobs gained, better than expected. Markets have sent the dollar higher, but the moves are limited. Fed doves have enough ammunition to signal the next move is cutting rates.
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The world's largest economy gained 128,000 jobs in October, better than 89,000 projected. Low estimated is the result of the strike at General Motors, which caused a significant drop in manufacturing jobs. The best news come from the revisions – October's gains come on top of 95,000 job gains previously unaccounted for in the previous two months. The US labor market is alive and kicking.
US economy added 128,000 jobs in October, beating the 89,000 forecast. Positive revisions to August and September totaled 95,000. General Motors strike subtracted between 46,000 and 80,000 from payrolls. The US economy has turned in another bang-up employment report. Belying estimates of the first sub-100,000 report since May and rumours of a negative number US firms added 128,000 workers in October.