NonFarm Payrolls

US labor market softens in August, attracting dovish Fed bets

US jobs report post-release checklist – September 1

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive US employers added 187,000 payrolls in August, more than the 170,000 expected and increasing from the 157,000 jobs created in July.
NFP Revisions Negative Net revisions from the previous two months, June and July, show that employers created 110,000 jobs less than previously estimated.
Unemployment rate Neutral The unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, well above the 3.5% expected. Still, this came partly due to more people joining the labor force rather than due to a sharp increase in joblessness.
Labor Force Participation Rate Positive The participation rate, a gauge of the active workforce, rose by 0.2 percentage points to 62.8% after being flat since March.
Average Hourly Earnings Negative Annual wage growth cooled somewhat in August to 4.3%, coming in lower than expected, a sign of loosening labor market conditions.



US jobs report pre-release checklist – September 1

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls  Negative US employers added 187,000 jobs in July, missing expectations and broadly in line with June’s 185,000 increase.
Challenger Job Cuts  Negative Employers announced 75,151 job cuts in August, more than tripling the figure seen a month earlier.
Initial Jobless Claims   Neutral The number of people filing to receive unemployment benefits for the first time has remained broadly steady at low levels. The 4-week moving average until August 25 was at 237,500, almost unchanged from the prior reading.
Continuing Jobless Claims  Negative Overall claims rose by 28,000 to 1.725 million in the week ending August 19. This is the highest level in six weeks.
ISM Services PMI   Neutral The ISM Services PMI data for August hasn’t been published yet. A similar survey by S&P Global showed services activity cooled to a six-month low in August.
ISM Manufacturing PMI   Neutral The ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August hasn’t been published yet. A similar survey by S&P Global showed factory activity contracted in August at a sharper pace than in July.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index   Neutral The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US edged down slightly to 69.5 in August from 71.6 in July. The small decline came after sharp increases in recent months.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index  Negative The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined sharply to 106.1 in August from 114.0 in July. Optimism around employment conditions receded.
ADP Employment Report  Negative ADP’s gauge of private-sector employment rose by 177,000 jobs in August, less than the 195,000 increase expected and almost half of the 371,000 jobs added in July.
JOLTS Job Openings  Negative Job openings in the US fell more than expected to 8.82 million in July, coming under the nine million threshold for the first time since March 2021.






Related content

Editors' picks

EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0600 after US data

EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0600 after US data

EUR/USD continues to move up and down in a narrow channel near 1.0600 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. Disappointing consumer confidence data from the US limit's the US Dollar's gains but the risk-averse market environment doesn't allow the pair to rebound.


GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stays in red below 1.2200

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stays in red below 1.2200

GBP/USD stays in negative territory below 1.2200 on Tuesday as the US Dollar continues to find demand following a bearish opening in Wall Street. Meanwhile, the data from the US revealed that consumer confidence weakened further in September.


Gold challenges $1,900 after piercing September’s low Premium

Gold challenges $1,900 after piercing September’s low

Spot Gold accelerated its slide on Tuesday, with XAU/USD plummeting to $1,900.83, its lowest in almost two weeks. The US Dollar surged on the back of a worsening market mood at the beginning of the week, as investors got spooked by central banks’ pledges to keep rates higher for longer and dismal United States (US) data.

Gold News

Shiba Inu inspired meme coin BONE notes first rise following the 55% crash in two months

Shiba Inu inspired meme coin BONE notes first rise following the 55% crash in two months

Bone ShibaSwap, also known as BONE, is one of the few meme coins that had a positive run on Monday. The meme coin is slowly emerging into an entity of its own, provided it can attract enough users to fuel its long overdue recovery. 

Read more

MULN enters first short-term uptrend in two months

MULN enters first short-term uptrend in two months

Mullen Automotive (MULN), the micro-cap electric vehicle manufacturer out of Brea, California, has witnessed its stock enter a bullish uptrend for the first time since July 20.

Read more





The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.