The American job market looks great – or at least that was the picture in February. There is nothing not to like in the data. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 273,000, smashing expectations, while wages advanced by healthy rates of 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY.
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for February was much better than expected, coming in with 273,000 jobs created vs a revised January number to 273,000 (from 225,000) as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in February from 3.6% in January.
The US economy began the New Year in fine fashion creating far more employment in January than forecast and bringing wages to their longest string of gains since the financial crisis. Non-farm payrolls added 225,000 new positions, well beyond the 160,000 median estimate with warm weather in much of the country enabling 44,000 construction jobs, more than double last year’s monthly average of 12,000, according to Labor Department data on Friday. Revisions for November’s totals added 5,000 to 256,000 and December 2,000 to 147,000.
America is still hiring – but offers fewer jobs with lower pay. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2019 has dropped below expectations with an increase of 145,000 against 164,000 expected and higher whisper numbers – given upbeat data leading into the event. Moreover, downward revisions to previous months shed 15,000 jobs.
The US economy created fewer jobs than forecast in December and less in total than in the prior year but employers have now added workers for a record decade and unemployment remained at a 50 year record. American firms hired 145,000 new workers last month, and revisions to the two prior months lowered totals by 14,000...
The US reported 266,000 jobs gained, better than expected. Markets have sent the dollar higher, but the moves are limited. Fed doves have enough ammunition to signal the next move is cutting rates.
EUR/USD has is trading below 1.0950, under pressure. ADP's private-sector jobs report has shown a loss of only 27,000 jobs, far better than expected. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also beat with 49.1 points.
GBP/USD is trading around 1.24 The market mood is gloomy as coronavirus continues spreading. The UK's death toll jumped by 31% to 2,352. Markets are digesting US data.
Crude oil prices came under renewed selling pressure in the last hour after the weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a huge build-up in crude oil stockpiles.
Crude price movement before last five recessions are ambivalent. WTI has fallen 66% since January 7 to its lowest price in 18 years. Previous sharp drops in oil did not anticipate downturns.
Gold has been pulling back up since the recent low on March 16th. It's amazing to think that in these uncertain times the price fell to hit a low to USD 1451.32.
NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.
During NFP data release, spreads first fall apart and recover slowly afterwards as market calms down.
The Non Farm Payrolls report is arguably one of biggest market movers in the Forex. Since the NFP report is scheduled this coming week, I thought it would be good for us to take a closer look at this fundamental giant.
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.
