Payrolls forecast to add 180,000 jobs in February. Economic and labor data points in two directions. ADP private payrolls, Services PMI weaker than expected. Manufacturing PMI, first quarter GDP predict strong growth. Markets are expectant of better US economic data.
Initial Claims expected to climb to 750,000 from 730,000. Claims fell more than 100,000 for the second time this year last week. Continuing claims at 4.419 million were lowest of the pandemic. Texas and Mississippi announce full economic reopening. Markets and the dollar keying on US data.
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact\' – that has been one of the consistent trading patterns through the decades and perhaps the centuries. January 2021's NFP has proved no different.
American employers resumed hiring in January and the unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low as California ended its lockdown and viral rates fell across the country. Nonfarm payrolls add 49,000 positions in January as forecast.
Winter has come – and it is taking its economic toll. The US has shed 140,000 in December, the first fall since the spring, and worse than expected. The virus has been raging in the last month of 2020 and government support was still in the works. Revisions added 135,000 to the previous two months, but the most recent figure is more worrying.
It is all a matter of timing. An increase of 245,000 jobs would be considered robust in the pre-pandemic era, but when the data relates to November 2020, a figure in the upper edge of the old normal represents the end of the recovery.
Positive for COVID-19 – the new about President Donald Trump's trumps everything, even the critical jobs report. The worrying news about the leader of the world's most powerful country has been grabbing the headlines. Yet as seen earlier in the week, investors' immediate concerns are around the next fiscal relief package. Optimism about a Republican-Democrat deal boosted stocks and pessimism sent it down.
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.
AUD/USD extends the previous day’s losses from weekly top. RBA failed to entertain markets but Treasury yields stole the show. Risk-off heavies the quote ahead of final readings of key data.
GBP/USD teases intraday low of 1.3921, currently down 0.14% around 1.3932, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cable stretches the pullback from a one-week-old resistance line as MACD recedes bullish bias.
Gold remains pressured near nine-month low, fades bounce off $1,702. Bond bears return amid optimism concerning US stimulus and vaccine power, comments from ECB add to the Treasury yield rally. American covid aid package, Fed’s Powell eyed amid a light calendar in Asia.
Dogecoin price has been trading sideways for the past two days and inside a downtrend since its new all-time high of $0.087 on February 7. Now, the favorite canine-cryptocurrency is ready for a new leg up.
US dollar firm and approaching Feb 4th highs from a significant technical support structure. US economy moderately gathering pace according to the Fed's Beige Book.
NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.
This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.
The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.
The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.
During NFP data release, spreads first fall apart and recover slowly afterwards as market calms down.
The Non Farm Payrolls report is arguably one of biggest market movers in the Forex. Since the NFP report is scheduled this coming week, I thought it would be good for us to take a closer look at this fundamental giant.
Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.
This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.
A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:
“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”
A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.
The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.
