Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 1,371,000 in August, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading fell short of the market expectation of 1.4 million and followed July's print of 1,734,000 (revised from 1,763,000).
Non-Farm Payrolls miss with 1371K
The headlines are impressive – a fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.4% and an increase of 1.371 million jobs, within expectations. The upbeat headlines have pushed stocks higher, allowing them to recover after Thursday's sell-off.
US jobs report post-release checklist – Sep 4th, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Negative||The US economy added 1.37M jobs in August, slightly below 1.4M expectations.|
|NFP Revisions||Neutral||July figure revised slightly downwards, from 1.763M to 1.734M.|
U3 unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, overcoming expectations of 9.8%. U6 underemployment rate also down from 16.5% to 14.2%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce rose from 61.4% to 61.7%, continuing the recovery started in May.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Positive||Both the yearly (4.7%) and the monthly (0.4%) growth of wages beat expectations.|
September US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
Is time again for the US to publish its monthly employment report. The country is expected to have recovered another 1.4 million jobs in August, after adding 1.76 million in July. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 9.8% from the latest 10.25, while the participation rate is seen steady at 61.4%.
The long-awaited US economic slowdown from the second Covid wave never arrived but the absence of dire statistics has not been enough to lift the dollar from its five week slough. Good news is required and the best would be a surging job market.NFP are forecast to rise 1.4 million in August.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Sep 4th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 1.76M jobs in July, a better-than-expected figure, although the ytd job-loss number is still around 13M.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||The number of corporate layoffs fell to 115K in August, the lowest figure since the pandemic outbreak.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||First-time employment claims have picked up the last couple of weeks, back over 1 million.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||The number of unemployment benefit receivers is falling at a painfully slow rate, still above 14.5 million.|
|ISM Services PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index in the US main services survey jumped over 5 points in August, continuing its recovery but still in contraction territory (47.9).|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||Employment sub-component in the US flagship manufacturing survey keeps recovering, printing a better-than-expected 46.4 number in August.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Neutral||The UMich consumer sentiment survey is failing to pick up, stuck in the low 70s since the pandemic struck.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® further decreased in August to 84.8, the lowest level in more than five years.|
|ADP Employment Report||Negative||Private sector employment just increased by 428K jobs in September, a very modest number compared to 950K expectations.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Positive||The number of hires was back on track on June, increasing to 5.88M, showing some pick up after curfew ended in several states. This is still a lagging indicator, though.|
August US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
A V-shaped recovery? White House adviser Larry Kudlow still touted a rapid bounce as late as two weeks ago – but the shape of the labor market already looks like an L or Nike swoosh. The sharp fall due to coronavirus is turning from a temporary shutdown into more permanent job losses.
July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US economy gained 4.8 million jobs in June, better than expected. Data is from early June when the US economy was reopening at a rapid pace. A raging second wave of coronavirus cases is set to hit employment, including in the long term.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside once again, but doubts about the sustainability remain prevalent. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss the market reaction, the state of coronavirus, politics, and more as a hot summer begins. Are the plumbers making progress?
June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Shocker – but a positive one – America is getting back to work, or at least receiving support while staying at home and remaining officially on the payroll. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for May was initially hard to believe – all those surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters had foreseen a loss of positions in May and the US gained 2.509 million jobs.
The labor market collapse reversed in May as a totally unexpected gain in employment underlined the resilience of the American economy and the positive impact of the government’s efforts under the $2 trillion Payroll Protection Program to keep people at work. Non-farm payrolls rose by 2.54 million last month, a vast improvement from the 20.5 million who were furloughed in April and less than half the -8 million forecast.
May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The worst Non-Farm Payrolls report in history – 20.5 jobs lost and an unemployment rate of 14.7% – is shocking but investors were already bracing for disaster. The lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus have taken their toll. The headline figures are devastating, but other statistics already paint an even darker picture.
The US labor market collapse in April surpassed all previous records for job losses but markets have already turned to the future as reopening states spur economic revival hopes. Payrolls dropped by 20.5 million, less than the 22 million estimate and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the highest since 1939 and the end of the Great Depression and just before the Second World War rearmed the US economy.
April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
"Like a hurricane hitting the whole country" – one of the reactions to the Non-Farm Payrolls report that showed a loss of 701,000 jobs, seven times worse than expected. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%, also worse than expected. It is the worst report since March 2009. The bad news may be only the very beginning, the tip of the iceberg.
American NFP shed 701,000 jobs in March, more that the worst loss during the financial crisis and surprising markets with the Labor Department’s ability to capture the rapid job losses. Economists had predicted just 100,000 firings, expecting the full accounting to be delayed until April as the US slows drastically from the economic impact of the Coronavirus.