The US economy began the New Year in fine fashion creating far more employment in January than forecast and bringing wages to their longest string of gains since the financial crisis. Non-farm payrolls added 225,000 new positions, well beyond the 160,000 median estimate with warm weather in much of the country enabling 44,000 construction jobs, more than double last year’s monthly average of 12,000, according to Labor Department data on Friday. Revisions for November’s totals added 5,000 to 256,000 and December 2,000 to 147,000.
Nonfarm Payrolls Data Release
US jobs report post-release checklist – Feb 7th, 2020
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||Upbeat headline figure with a 225K job gain in January, better than 160K expected, triggering a notable +1.52 deviation.|
|NFP Revisions||Neutral||December's figure was meagerly revised upwards, from 145K to 147K.|
Both U3 (3.6%) and U6 (6.9%) unemployment figures ticked up from record lows.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Positive||The share of people in the workforce rose to 63.4% in January, clearly better than the 63.1% expected.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Neutral||Mixed figures in the wage data. with the yearly figures (3.1%) beating expectations while monthly ones disappointing them (0.2%).|
February US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Feb 7th, 2020
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Negative||December's 145K job growth disappointed a bit, triggering a -0.47 deviation. November's outstanding figure was also revised slightly down, from 266K to 256K.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Negative||The number of corporate layoffs went up in January, from 32.843K to 67.735K, the biggest figure in the last 11 months.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Positive||The 4-week moving average for the jobless claims figure has been trending down for the last month, from 224k to a 211.75k average.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Neutral||The last four weekly releases for the total number of unemployment claims has been mixed, with two weeks beating expectations and the two others disappointing them.|
|ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||Negative||Employment sub-index in the services sector retraced from 54.8 to 53.1, disappointing expectations (55.2) for a higher release.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||Employment sub-component in the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose a bit, from 45.2 to 46.6, the second rise in the last seven months, but still in contraction territory.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||UMich consumer survey rose to 99.8 in January, very close to its multi-year highs.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||CB consumer survey went back to the positive track with a 3-point increase in January, from 128.2 to 131.6. Consumer mood is quite optimistic.|
|ADP Employment Report||Positive||ADP private employment report smashed expectations with an enormous 291K job gain in January, the biggest in the last 12 months. This is the most-correlated-to-NFP leading indicator, so it's a huge positive.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Negative||Job openings notably decreased in November from 7.36M to 6.8M, the fifth disappointment in the last seven releases. Even if this is a lagging indicator, it shows hiring has slowed down recently.|
January US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
America is still hiring – but offers fewer jobs with lower pay. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2019 has dropped below expectations with an increase of 145,000 against 164,000 expected and higher whisper numbers – given upbeat data leading into the event. Moreover, downward revisions to previous months shed 15,000 jobs.
The US economy created fewer jobs than forecast in December and less in total than in the prior year but employers have now added workers for a record decade and unemployment remained at a 50 year record. American firms hired 145,000 new workers last month, and revisions to the two prior months lowered totals by 14,000...
December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US reported 266,000 jobs gained, better than expected. Markets have sent the dollar higher, but the moves are limited. Fed doves have enough ammunition to signal the next move is cutting rates.
November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The world's largest economy gained 128,000 jobs in October, better than 89,000 projected. Low estimated is the result of the strike at General Motors, which caused a significant drop in manufacturing jobs. The best news come from the revisions – October's gains come on top of 95,000 job gains previously unaccounted for in the previous two months. The US labor market is alive and kicking.
US economy added 128,000 jobs in October, beating the 89,000 forecast. Positive revisions to August and September totaled 95,000. General Motors strike subtracted between 46,000 and 80,000 from payrolls. The US economy has turned in another bang-up employment report. Belying estimates of the first sub-100,000 report since May and rumours of a negative number US firms added 128,000 workers in October.