NonFarm Payrolls


Will the US labor market conditions garner the Fed's attention?

US jobs report post-release checklist – December 2nd, 2022

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive The US economy added 263K jobs in November, much better than the 200K expected.
NFP Revisions Negative NFP November report revised to 284K from 261K.
Unemployment rate Neutral

U3 unemployment rate came as expected with 3,7%, the U6 underemployment came a bit worst than Octobers' data , with 6.7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral
The share of people in the workforce has slightly decreased to 62.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings Negative Montly change in wages sllightly decreased to 34.4%, while yearly wages remained around 5%.

 

NOVEMBER US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW

US jobs report pre-release checklist – November 2nd, 2022

Previous Non-Farm PayrollsPositiveThe US economy added 261K jobs in October, much better than the 200K expected.
Challenger Job CutsNeutral
The number of corporate layoffs climbed above 70K in November from 33K in October
Initial Jobless Claims PositiveThe last Jobless Claims release came much better than expected, with the week ending on November 25th seeing 225K first-time claimers.
Continuing Jobless Claims NeutralThe number of employment seekers is now around 1.608M, still close to all-time lows.
ISM Services PMI ---The ISM Services PMI will be released on Monday, December 5, and can't be used as a leading indicator for NFP.
ISM Manufacturing PMI NegativeThe employment sub-index for the main survey in the US manufacturing sector came in at 48.4, pointing a contraction in job growth.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index NegativeConsumer confidence in the US weakened in November following a modest improvement in October.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Negative

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November after also losing ground in October. The Index now stands at 100.2, down from 102.2 in October. 

ADP Employment Report Negative
Employment in the US private sector rose by US 127,000 in November, compared to the market expectation of 200,000.
JOLTS Job Openings NeutralThere were 10.3 million job openings on the last business day of October, down from 10.7 million in September.

 

OCTOBER US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


SEPTEMBER US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


AUGUST US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


JULY US JOBS REPORT review


JUNE US JOBS REPORT Review


May US JOBS REPORT Review


April US JOBS REPORT Review


March US JOBS REPORT Review



February US JOBS REPORT Review

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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.