Bitcoin, the biggest and most traded cryptocurrency, extends rebound from multi-week lows of $ 9,231 into a third straight session, although remains confined within a tight trading range, with the upside capped by the $ 12000 mark.
1. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Here we have the logarithmic daily chart of the Bitcoin. This is where we can see how the recent falls of the Bitcoin from close to $20000 to the current levels look much less aggressive, so that helps to erase noise, settle down potential panicking and help us make wiser decisions. Our chart tools offer this logarithmic scale, adapting technical indicators and tools to it.
Bitcoin is trading inside a bearish channel, with resistance in the $15000 area. Support is at the main trendline of the whole bullish move, right now around the $10800 mark.
MACD is moving around a negative area, but has lost inclination and, if the current price levels persist, it would quickly turn around, confirming our forecast of a new bullish leg.
Directional Movement Index supports the idea of more lateral action for the upcoming trading sessions, with D- still above ADX and with no signal from D+ that indicates any rising of the buyers number.
Bitcoin at a critical point
Bitcoin reached a critical point on Wednesday after forming a large ABC Elliot Wave corrective pattern and falling from all-time highs near $20,000.
Despite regulatory concerns out of Asia, Bitcoin has stabilised at this critical technical point with price still in a Bull Market above the $9000 mark. Shouts of a crash based on a 50% decline from the highs seem premature given the overall volatile nature of the instrument and the unprecedented, meteoric rise last year.
From a purely technical perspective the price structure points to a Bullish impulse wave being just around the corner as long as price can hold above the $9000 mark.
What happens below the $9000 mark?
A break below the key area of $9000 will signal the end of this Bull run, at least for now, putting to the test the psychology of Bitcoin traders.
We have, of course, all heard the endless forewarnings of a crash "any moment now" pretty much all the way up from $1000 to just under $20,000. Not too dissimilar to the end of the world updates we seem to get almost every year from someone, somewhere, holding a piece of cardboard with the words "the end is nigh" scrawled across it. However, if there is going to be a crash, it could well be below $9000 as this point marks the graphical manifestation of where the average traders’ emotions usually get the better of them.
One variable however which could prove interesting is the fact that most Bitcoin traders aren't following the normal rules of trading. Many are not only invested financially but seemingly emotionally. Some even seeing it as a fight for freedom from central banks and utterly prepared to be carried home on their shields if it comes to it. Since all markets are driven by human emotion, it seems interesting to ask the question - Is this collective fanaticism likely to save Bitcoin from an impending crash?
Bitcoin is getting ready to close out a wild week, which had the cryptoasset trading more than 50% off its record high from December. A recovery off the weekly low has many getting ready for the next big push, though at this stage, it's going to take a lot more, to alleviate the immediate downside pressure.
The Ripple logarithmic chart shows that Fibonacci levels are working to perfection here, giving the recent falls a much more coherent and natural outlook. Right now, Ripple is trading in the 23.6% retracement level from all-time highs, first meaningful level in this analysis.
MACD is comfortably moving above 0, flattening and showing clear intentions of quietly sliding until settling down just above this neutral level.
Directional Movement Index shows equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with the ADX showing how the trend keeps losing steam.
2. fundamental overview
The crypto market eroded $ 200 billion of its value earlier this week, as the Cryptocurrencies crashed across the board amid mounting fears of the regulatory clampdown in China and South Korea. Bitcoin lost 50% of its value from the record peaks of near $ 20000 levels.
However, the bulls managed to fight back control over the last few trading sessions, as industry experts believe the regulations are good for the crypto markets in the long-run while adding that the virtual currencies are here to stay.
According to Spencer Bogart, a partner and head of research at Blockchain Capital, many of the smaller digital currencies seem overpriced these days, which is "not a sign of a discerning market," Bitcoin has demonstrated its ability to survive upheaval. "There's a legion of people out there right now that see this as a great buying opportunity."
Meanwhile, the further recovery appears restricted amid fresh headlines on the cryptocurrencies regulation from China and the US. The Chinese central bank (PBOC) has asked the Chinese payment institutions stop providing services for the trading of virtual currencies.
It should be evident to any trader willing to operate Bitcoin in a speculative way should be using BTC financial futures, as they offer much lower operational costs and are quicker and more liquid markets.
In the opposite side, those who see in Bitcoin a safe-haven asset or just don’t want to sell the main cryptocurrency in the mid-term, they should still buy the asset in any cryptocurrency exchanger as it has been done up to nowadays.
3. latest news & analysis
Best brokers to trade crypto
4. cryptocurrencies big picture
Buying crypto-currencies is the hot theme, investors have already added different types of digital coins to their portfolio and traders are trying to catch the long side of the rally. However, there is huge volatility with this kind of instrument which causes sharp declines in few hours that can trick short-term traders and may cause a lot of problems. That’s why unless you are owning these crypto-currencies from lower levels and looking to hold it for a long time then it’s better to pay attention to the market structure and learn how to identify the right sequence and cycle to allow you to buy it the right area to protect
Blockchain is the new, revolutionary, distributed ledger technology. This technology is the backbone of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and thousands more. However, the potential impacts of this technology will be much broader than simply currency. We will look at how the technology works, and assess its potential for a wide variety of applications and how they will touch every aspect of your financial life.
As their value continues to increase exponentially, more and more people are talking about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and the many other cryptocurrencies that are being created every day. But what are they exactly? How do you purchase them? Where do you keep them and who will accept them as payment? Watch this webinar to learn the basics of cryptocurrencies.
Watch this webinar to learn the details about the different types of wallets available for cryptocurrencies so you can determine which ones will work best for your situation. In this, our third webinar in a series on cryptocurrencies, we will break down the key features of each and discuss their overall security, ease of use, anonymity, and functionality.
What's a Bitcoin?
What is a Bitcoin? It is a virtual currency that consists of cryptographically coded data that is forgery-proof. Bitcoins enable the direct transfer from one user to the other and render intermediates like commercial banks and central banks redundant. Instead of a central third party – the central bank or commercial bank – you have a global P2P (Peer-to-Peer) network, where every user takes care of the control of the currency system. The decentralized structure avoids having single powerful players using the system in their favor or manipulating it. A major advantage of Bitcoins in contrast to the current monetary system is anonymity and cheap transaction costs.
The concept of Bitcoin was introduced publicly for the first time by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 – a time when the global financial world was on the edge. Since then our existing monetary system has been faced with a deepening crisis of confidence and therefore the call for an alternative has become louder.
The Bitcoin debate goes on and on. Some claim it's a bubble. Others say it isn't. Still, others say it can never be a bubble.
The theory of money thesis implies that everyone will want to own bitcoins. At best, that's quite a leap of faith. We've heard the same argument regarding gold countless times. The argument is along the lines of "If people just put 2% of their assets in gold, it will hit $10,000." Bitcoin supposedly will hit $1,000,000 when everyone gets in.
So what? Is Bitcoin a commodity? The answer is yes. It has value if for no other reason that people attribute a value to it. Is Bitcoin money or does it function as money?
What happens at every bubble peak is the true believers come out with a cornucopia of reasons why things are not a bubble. So please don't say that Bitcoin cannot be a bubble simply because it has commodity value or because convoluted interpretations of a theory by George Soros say so. The main uses of Bitcoin are undoubtedly speculation, capital flight out of China, and money laundering. Remember the dotcom bubble when speculators were clamoring for leap options on a company called JDSU. The day those options became available marked the top. The fact that Bitcoin futures and ETFs are in the works are more signs of a speculative mania.
Ethereum is an open-source blockchain-based distributed computing platform featuring smart contract functionality. It provides a decentralized Turing-complete virtual machine, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which can execute scripts using an international network of public nodes. Ethereum also provides a crypto-currency token called “ether”, which can be transferred between accounts and used to compensate participant nodes for computations performed.
Ethereum went live in 2015, it quickly gained attraction in the digital world and it’s currently the second largest Crypto-Currency, sitting behind the Bitcoin.
Ripple provides global financial settlement solutions to ultimately enable the world to exchange value like it already exchanges information – giving rise to an Internet of Value (IoV). Ripple solutions lower the total cost of settlement by enabling banks to transact directly, without correspondent banks, and with real-time certainty of settlement. Banks around the world are partnering with Ripple to improve their cross-border payment offerings and to join the growing, global network of financial institutions and market makers laying the foundation for the Internet of Value.
The alternative proposed is the use of XRP as a common currency underlying all money transfers between different currencies (USD is currently the most common currency). Not only are transaction fees much lower to convert from one currency to XRP and back, but transfers take a maximum of 4 seconds to execute and verify. Quite a few global banks have already started embracing Ripple as it saves them a lot of money in the long run by avoiding exchange fees.
Follow Coin's slack channel or blog
Join the forums - Steemit/Reddit
Read developer team's white paper, although it tends to get very technical
Fundamental questions to be addressed before investing in a cryptocurrency
What is the use case of the cryptocurrency?
What is the inflation rate or deflation rate?
What is the market capitalization?
Track changes in hah rate, block size and difficulty levels
Is the coin management and network centralized or decentralized?
Are there competing technologies on the horizon, threatening blockchain as we know it?
Technical analysis does work well, although elite crypto traders still do not appreciate the efficacy of technicals. Nevertheless, traders can always rely on charts to determine inflection points, trends etc.
Simple technical analysis works with Cryptocurrencies
KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid works well and unnecessary complexity should be avoided.
Focus on a relatively simple method focusing on candlesticks, pattern formations, momentum, and volume.
Fibonacci retracements work well as support and resistance levels.
Investors can use Fibonacci extensions to chart the uncharted territory.
Best Cryptocurrencies to Trade: How to choose them?
Best cryptocurrencies to trade are the ones with:
High volumes (data available on
Healthy market capitalization.
Easy access to news/fundamental information (Slack channel, Reddit forum)