FOMC Interest rate decision (FED) | News & Analysis


Powell speech: We are a long way from max employment

In the near term, as pandemic recedes, could be exuberant spending, upward pressure on prices. A one-time increase in prices is unlikely to mean persistently high inflation. Inflation dynamics don't change quickly. "We are a long way from max employment," said Powell.

XAU/USD rallies modestly as Powell plays down taper talk

XAU/USD prices have risen to around the $1850 mark in recent trade, amid a choppy but broadly weaker USD. At present, gold trades higher by about 0.2% or just under $5. Lending support to the precious metal was dovish-sounding remarks from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, as well as a mild pick-up in inflation expectations.

FED'S LAST EMERGENCY MEASURES REVIEW

Fed's Clarida: Overshooting inflation will help meet the 2% average target

Federal Reserve's vice chair, Richard Clarida, has started that their models suggest overshooting inflation will help meet the 2% average target. Last week, he was saying that he expects the Fed to keep its current $120 billion pace of bond purchases at least through this year. "My economic outlook is consistent with keeping the current pace of purchases throughout the rest of this year," Clarida said last week.

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November Fed Decision Review

Fed Analysis: Powell adds fuel to the market fire by defending QE, rally set to extend

The Fed has left its rates unchanged as expected, making minor changes to the accompanying statement. At first, it seemed that the world's most powerful central bank was succeeding in not rocking the boat, striking a balance between expressing content about the recovery so far but airing concern about the risks of the virus. However, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began speaking, he gave the market reasons to tune in. He began by saying that the pace of the recovery has moderated. That served as a hint that the Fed is ready to act.


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EUR/USD hits fresh one-month low amid souring market mood

EUR/USD has been extending its falls and dips below 1.21 as US retail sales badly disappointed and the worsening mood is supporting the safe-haven dollar. Markets digest Biden's stimulus plan. US Consumer Sentiment declined to 59.2 points. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.36 amid fresh dollar strength

GBP/US has pared its gains and falls toward 1.36 as the dollar gains ground. The UK economy shrank by 2.6% in November, better than estimated. The UK is ramping up its vaccination campaign and PM Johnson is pressured to ease the lockdown. 

GBP/USD News

DXY breaks above key downtrend, eyes move above 91.00

USD has been strongly supported on what has shaped up to be a very much risk off final trading day of the week. Most G10/USD pairs have seen significant weakness, aside from CHF/USD and JPY/USD, given that the two currencies are also considered “safe havens”.

US Dollar Index News

Gold extends sideways grind near $1,850

The XAU/USD pair registered small daily gains on Thursday but struggled to extend its recovery amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers on Friday. As of writing, the pair was up 0.15% on a daily basis at $1,849.

Gold news

Forex Today: Markets “sell the fact” on Biden's stimulus, dollar rises, retail sales eyed

Markets are on the back foot after Biden hinted about tax hikes while introducing stimulus. The safe-haven dollar is edging higher despite Powell's pledge to keep monetary policy accommodative. 

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Big Picture

What's important about Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting?

With a pre-set regularity, a nation's Central Bank has an economic policy meeting, in which board members took different measures, the most relevant one, being the interest rate that it will charge on loans and advances to commercial banks.

In the US, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (FED) meets at intervals of five to eight weeks, in which they announce their latest decisions. A rate hike tends to boost the local currency, as it is understood as a sign of a healthy inflation. A rate cut, on the other hand, is seen as a sign of economic and inflationary woes and, therefore, tends to weaken the local currency.

If rates remain unchanged, attention and also main news and analysis turn to the tone of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement, and whether the tone is hawkish, or dovish over future developments of inflation.

What is the Fed?

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States and it has two main targets or reasons to be: one is to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and the other one, to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

How to trade the event?

  • Do not rely on the Fed to determine the direction of the dollar in the coming months.
  • The dollar tends to follow its predominant trend when the Fed starts to hike rates.
  • There is no direct link between the Fed hiking rates and the usd falling. When a weak usd has coincided with a Fed hiking cycle, it has been falling for some time.
  • Due to this, we may see a muted reaction to a potential Fed rate hike.

WHO IS FOMC'S CHAIRMAN?

Jerome Powell

Jerome PowellJerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.



The World Interest Rates Table

The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.

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