FOMC Interest rate decision (Fed) | News & Analysis


Fed delivers a hawkish pause, promises higher for longer rates

LATEST FED MEASURES TO BATTLE INFLATION

Fed's Collins: Time for monetary policy to be patient and deliberate

In a prepared speech delivered on Wednesday, “the risk of inflation staying higher for longer must now be weighed against the risk that an overly restrictive stance of monetary policy will lead to a greater slowdown in activity than is needed to restore price stability,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins.

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Breaking: Fed hikes interest rate by 25 bps to 5.25-5.5% as expected

The US Fed announced on Wednesday that it raised the policy rate, federal funds rate, by 25 bps to the range of 5.25-5.5% following the July policy meeting. This decision came in line with the market expectation. In its policy statement, the Fed reiterated that policymakers will continues to assess additional information and the implications for the policy.


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EUR/USD trades at multi-month lows below 1.0550 after US data

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EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and fell to its lowest level since March below 1.0550 on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) preserved its strength following the better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data, not allowing the pair to stage a rebound.

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GBP/USD stays on the back foot below 1.2150

GBP/USD stays on the back foot below 1.2150

GBP/USD struggles to erase its losses and trades near the multi-month low it set below 1.2150 mid-week. The persistent US Dollar (USD) strength despite a modest improvement seen in risk mood limits the pair's rebound, while markets keep a close eye on political developments in the US.

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US government shutdowns and US Dollar implications

US government shutdowns and US Dollar implications

A potential US government shutdown that could start October 1st looms, the chances of which are more or less seen as a coin flip at this point. Should a shutdown transpire, there could be a negative impact of the US Dollar.

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Gold struggles to gain traction, stays below $1,900

Gold struggles to gain traction, stays below $1,900

Gold price finds it difficult to stage a rebound after dropping to a monthly low below $1,900 on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady near the multi-year high it set above 4.5%, making it difficult for XAU/USD to shake off the bearish pressure.

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This short-term Bitcoin holder indicator forecasts another rally for BTC

This short-term Bitcoin holder indicator forecasts another rally for BTC

Bitcoin price has been malleable to the short-term holder movements. A large spike in profits for short-term holders is almost always met by a correction in BTC. 

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What's important about Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting?

With a pre-set regularity, a nation's Central Bank has an economic policy meeting, in which board members took different measures, the most relevant one, being the interest rate that it will charge on loans and advances to commercial banks.

In the US, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (FED) meets at intervals of five to eight weeks, in which they announce their latest decisions. A rate hike tends to boost the local currency, as it is understood as a sign of a healthy inflation. A rate cut, on the other hand, is seen as a sign of economic and inflationary woes and, therefore, tends to weaken the local currency.

If rates remain unchanged, attention and also main news and analysis turn to the tone of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement, and whether the tone is hawkish, or dovish over future developments of inflation.

What is the Fed?

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States and it has two main targets or reasons to be: one is to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and the other one, to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

How to trade the event?

  • Do not rely on the Fed to determine the direction of the dollar in the coming months.
  • The dollar tends to follow its predominant trend when the Fed starts to hike rates.
  • There is no direct link between the Fed hiking rates and the usd falling. When a weak usd has coincided with a Fed hiking cycle, it has been falling for some time.
  • Due to this, we may see a muted reaction to a potential Fed rate hike.

WHO IS FOMC'S CHAIRMAN?

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.


The World Interest Rates Table

The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.

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