Forex Today: Antipodeans fall as rate cut bets deepen, focus on China data


FX today experienced witnessed mixed market sentiment in Asia this Friday, with traders cautious amid heightening US-Iran geopolitical tensions, especially after the US suspected Iran behind the attacks on 2 oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. The biggest beneficiary of the geopolitical and trade risks was the traditional safe-haven Gold. Gold futures on Comex rallied and remained poised to test the yearly tops at 1356 levels. However, the safe-haven demand for the Yen remained muted, with USD/JPY holding ground near 108.30 levels. The spot was supported by positive US equity futures.

The biggest loser so far was the Kiwi and headed towards 0.65 handle, in the face of intensifying recession risks in New Zealand following downbeat manufacturing PMI numbers that flagged further RBNZ rate cuts. The Aussie followed suit and hit fresh 3-week lows below 0.6900 levels on the back aggressive RBA rate cut calls. The Loonie traded on the back foot despite the renewed uptick in oil prices.

Among the European currency pairs, EUR/USD and Cable traded little changed amid a broad-based US dollar consolidation.

Main Topics in Asia

Updates on US-Iran rift

UK agrees Iran responsible for tanker attacks – BBC reporter

Iran says it categorically rejects "US. unfounded claim" - Iranian mission to United Nations

Military: US has 'no interest' in new conflict in Middle East – Reuters

Rumour: US military have released video that shows Iranian involvement in tanker attacks

Japan’s Kokuka President: No possibility tanker was attacked by torpedo, was damaged by flying objects

Other Headlines

Japan’s Motegi: Think Japan, US deepened understanding over each other’s position over trade issue

UK Foreign Minister: UK will be making its own assessment - BBC

UK’s Tory Candidate Leadsom: Could back PM Candidate Sajid Javid in leadership race – Times

China hikes dumping duties on US, EU steel tubes

Gold nearing the year’s high amid US-Iran rift

NAB forecasts RBA to cut cash rate to 0.75% in November

US cuts tariffs on South Korean made hot-rolled steel - Yonhap

Canadian PM Trudeau to visit Washington to seek support in China row

Asian stocks trade mixed amid rally in gold prices

Key Focus Ahead

Heading into the European session, the main focus remains on a flurry of China’s economic releases that were rescheduled by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to 0700 GMT earlier today. The country’s industrial output, retail sales and urban investment data are likely to show mild improvement in the month of May. Ahead of the China data dump, Germany will publish the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) at 0600 GMT, which is likely to have a negligible impact on the EUR trades. The UK docket remains data-dry and hence, the speeches by the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers De Guindos and Lautenschlager will be closely followed for fresh trading impulse.

The NA calendar remains quite eventful, in contrast, with the US Retail Sales report for May likely to headline at 1230 GMT, soon followed by the US Industrial Production data and Capacity Utilization figures due at 1315 GMT. The US UoM Preliminary Consumer Sentiment release at 1400 GMT will also hog the limelight. The US retail sales are likely to rebound while the consumer sentiment is expected to dip amid ongoing US-China trade concerns. Amidst the US macro news, the speech by the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney will gain some market attention and drive fresh GBP moves. Later in the American session, the Bakers Hughes oil rigs count data will be reported at 1700 GMT that will somewhat influence oil prices, in the face of the suspected oil tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman.

EUR/USD flirts with 100-day MA support ahead of China data

EUR/USD is sitting on the 100-day moving average (MA) support of 1.1270 with investors awaiting the release of China’s industrial production and retail sales data for May.

GBP/USD on a back foot as traders await fresh clues from Carney's speech

With the latest political developments at the UK likely favoring a hard Brexit, investors await fresh clues from the BOE’s Carney for fresh impulse while the GBP/USD pair trades unmotivated ahead of the UK open on Friday.

US: Key focus on core Retail Sales – Scotiabank

The Scotiabank analysts offer a sneak peek into what to expect from Friday’s US retail sales report due on the cards at 1230 GMT.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: Happiness and caution

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index predicted to decline slightly in June. Confidence may suffer from weak May non-farm payrolls

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Jun 13
24h
 
 
22:30
50.2
54.4
52.7 Revised from 53.0
22:45
0.7%
0.4%
-0.1%
Friday, Jun 14
04:30
1.6%
0.2%
-0.4%
04:30
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
04:30
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.1%
04:30
4.7%
 
1.1%
05:00
1.2%
 
1.5%
05:00
€0.0B
 
€-0.5B
05:00
2.8%
 
1.1%
06:00
 
2.8%
2.1%
06:00
 
0.8%
0.6%
06:30
 
3.10%
3.07%
06:45
 
1.1%
1.1%
06:45
 
0.2%
0.2%
07:00
 
8.1%
7.2%
07:00
 
5.5%
5.4%
07:00
 
 
07:00
 
6.1%
6.1%
07:00
 
$-1.500B
$-0.589B
07:00
 
2.6%
2.3%
07:00
 
2.0%
1.9%
07:00
 
0.1%
0.2%
07:00
 
0.3%
0.2%
07:00
 
 
07:30
 
2.0%
2.1%
07:30
 
0.1%
0.7%
08:00
 
0.9%
0.3%
08:00
 
2.4%
2.2%
08:00
 
-2.5%
1.3%
08:00
 
-4.1%
-3.6%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
09:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
09:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
10:00
 
 
0.5%
10:00
 
 
0.1%
10:00
 
 
10:30
 
7.50%
7.75%
n/a
 
 
11:30
 
 
$421.87B
12:30
 
0.3%
0.1%
12:30
 
0.6%
-0.2%
12:30
 
0.4%
0.0%
12:55
 
 
13:15
 
0.2%
-0.5%
13:15
 
78.0%
77.9%
14:00
 
98
100
14:00
 
0.5%
0.0%
15:00
 
4.5%
5.3%
15:00
 
2.7%
3.2%
17:00
 
 
789
19:30
 
 
$89.9K
19:30
 
 
$156.1K
19:30
 
 
400.2K
19:30
 
 
£-47.8K
19:30
 
 
¥-44.4K
19:30
 
 
€-87.6K
19:30
 
 
$-63.3K
Sunday, Jun 16
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
23:00
 
 
0.9%
23:00
 
 
0.1%
Monday, Jun 17
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
06:00
 
 
17.6B
07:00
 
 
14.7%
07:00
 
3.9%
4.3%
07:00
 
0.4%
0.7%
08:00
 
 
-18.32B
n/a
 
 
09:00
 
2.6%
2.3%
10:00
 
 
3%
10:00
 
 
0.1%
11:30
 
 
$-16.9B
12:00
 
1.7%
1.7%
12:30
 
12.75
17.80
12:30
 
 
$-1.49B
12:30
 
 
$1.54B
14:00
 
66
66
15:30
 
 
2.14%
15:30
 
 
2.24%
20:00
 
$6.5B
$-28.4B
20:00
 
$17.0B
$-8.1B
21:00
 
 
103.8
Tuesday, Jun 18
01:30
 
 
10.7%
01:30
 
 
-5.1%
01:30
 
-1.6%
-2.4%
01:30
 
 
06:00
 
 
0.5%
06:00
 
2.4%
2.5%
07:00
 
-4.3%
-2.2%
07:00
 
 
1.7%
07:00
 
 
0.3%
07:00
 
2.7%
2.4%
07:00
 
0.4%
0.2%
n/a
 
 
-0.376%
n/a
 
 
-0.49%
09:00
 
6.0
8.2
09:00
 
0.5
-2.1
09:00
 
€18.5B
€17.9B
09:00
 
€8.8B
€22.5B
09:00
 
0.3%
0.7%
09:00
 
0.8%
0.8%
09:00
 
0.4%
0.0% Revised from 0.9%
09:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
09:00
 
1.4
-1.6
n/a
 
 
1.109%
12:30
 
1.300M
1.290M Revised from 1.296M
12:30
 
1.240M
1.235M
12:30
 
-2.9%
0.2% Revised from 0.6%
12:30
 
-7.3%
5.7%
12:30
 
0.2%
2.1%
12:55
 
 
-2.6%
12:55
 
 
5%
13:00
 
 
0.5%
13:00
 
 
10.7%
13:00
 
1.5%
4.6%
n/a
 
-3.6%
-3.4%
15:30
 
 
2.28%
20:30
 
 
4.85M
22:45
 
-3.4%
-3.7%
22:45
 
$1.477B
$-3.256B
23:50
 
¥203.2B
¥56.8B Revised from ¥60.4B
23:50
 
¥-2.2B
¥-110.9B
23:50
 
4.8%
6.5% Revised from 6.4%
23:50
 
-1.8%
-2.4%
Wednesday, Jun 19
07:00
 
95.2
91.0
07:30
 
 
6.2%
08:00
 
€4.006B
€4.625B
08:00
 
 
€1.22B
08:00
 
7.2%
7.1%
08:00
 
4.5%
4.4%
08:00
 
0.8%
0.6%
08:00
 
€29.0B
€24.7B
08:00
 
€10.6B
€35.0B
08:30
 
0.8%
1.1%
08:30
 
2.8%
3.0%
08:30
 
2.2%
2.2%
08:30
 
1.3%
1.1%
08:30
 
4.5%
3.8%
08:30
 
0.2%
0.2%
08:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
08:30
 
2.3%
2.1%
08:30
 
2.2%
2.1%
08:30
 
1.9%
1.8%
08:30
 
0.7%
0.6%
08:30
 
 
2.8%
08:30
 
4.87%
4.90%
09:00
 
1.9%
6.3%
09:00
 
1.10%
-0.27%
11:00
 
 
26.8%
11:30
 
 
10.3%
12:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
12:30
 
2%
2%
12:30
 
 
0.2%
12:30
 
-0.1%
0.0%
12:30
 
1.2%
1.5%
13:00
 
 
14:30
 
4.484M
2.206M
18:00
 
 
18:00
 
 
18:00
 
2.5%
2.5%
18:30
 
 
21:00
 
6.5%
6.5%
21:00
 
0.8%
0.6%
21:00
 
0.5%
0.3%
22:45
 
0.7%
0.6%
22:45
 
1.8%
2.3%
23:50
 
 
¥1,736B
23:50
 
 
¥-148B
Thursday, Jun 20
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
01:15
 
 
01:30
 
 
02:00
 
-0.1%
-0.1%
02:00
 
 
04:30
 
 
04:30
 
0.0%
-0.4%
04:30
 
 
3.3%
04:30
 
 
1.1%
04:30
 
 
-3
06:00
 
 
5.9
06:00
 
 
6.6%
06:00
 
2,964M
2,294M
06:00
 
 
19,385M
06:00
 
 
17,091M
06:45
 
 
0.3%
07:00
 
 
55.3
07:00
 
 
6%
08:00
 
 
08:00
 
 
1%
08:30
 
 
0%
08:30
 
4.6%
5.2%
08:30
 
4.2%
4.9%
08:30
 
-0.5%
-0.2%
08:30
 
 
€-1.503B
n/a
 
 
0.839%
n/a
 
 
-0.361%
n/a
 
 
-0.096%
10:00
 
 
€-1.591B
11:00
 
0.75%
0.75%
11:00
 
£435B
£435B
11:00
 
9
9
11:00
 
0
0
11:00
 
 
11:00
 
0
0
12:30
 
$-130.0B
$-134.4B
12:30
 
 
222K
12:30
 
 
1.695M
12:30
 
12.0
16.6
12:30
 
 
61.7K
13:00
 
 
-5
13:00
 
 
$502.7B
13:00
 
4.6%
4.7%
14:00
 
-6.5
-6.5
14:30
 
 
102B
15:30
 
 
2.215%
22:00
 
 
$-762.4M
23:50
 
0.6%
0.6%
23:50
 
0.8%
0.9%
23:50
 
0.7%
0.9%
Friday, Jun 21
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:30
 
50.1
49.8

 

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