Brexit

"Nightmare on Downing Street on Friday the 13" – is how Prime Minister Boris Johnson has described a victory for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in the December 12 poll. Where we are and how we got here: Brits are called to vote in a national survey for the fourth time in as many years. The outgoing parliament lasted for only two and a half years – half the usual parliamentarian term. The vote fatigue and the unusual timing of the elections – close to the shortest days of the year – adds to the uncertainty. Investors may nod in agreement with Johnson's approach, as they prefer him to stay. He is in the lead, and not it's his elections to lose. However, for cable traders, it is not a straightforward binary choice between these politicians – both highly unpopular – but also the composition of parliament. That is why five scenarios await GBP/USD.

President-elect Ursula von der Leyen didn't mince her words over the past week stating that with the UK technically still part of the EU its legal obligations to the bloc needed to be meant it needed to provide a UK commissioner to the EU ASAP.

A victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson at next month's election would mean his Brexit deal is likely to be ratified. But there's still a chance that the UK could see an abrupt end to the transition period in December 2020. That wouldn't just be bad for trade in goods.

Easy to pass withdrawal agreement bill and UK leaves EU at end of Jan. Crucially it could also give Johnson the political breathing space to extend the transition period and commit to the associated EU budget payments. Equally if the government decides it doesn't want to extend the transition, it could be very hard for MPs to force an extension repeat ‘Benn bill' attempts will be tough.