The approval of the Brexit treaty to secure Britain’s exit from the European Union was always a one-party affair. More than two years in the making the agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government and the EU Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, was never going to be rejected by the European Union’s 28 members. The EU negotiators were working within the boundaries set by the Union’s dominate players Germany and France. In essence the EU side is pre-approved.
Brexit deal causes high political uncertainty
Markets have rallied on news that a draft Brexit deal has been reached but there’s still a long way to go.
There’s no guarantee Parliament will approve it, which risks dragging the process into 2019. We still think ‘no deal’ will be avoided in the end – allowing a re-pricing of the BoE cycle some further GBP strength, but for now, it is too soon to get carried away. The big question now is whether or not the Prime Minister’s deal can gain enough support for it to be approved in the House of Commons - and the answer looks just as uncertain as ever. To understand why, we look at how the three key factions of Parliament might vote, what would happen if May loses and what all of this means for the pound.
As expected, PM Theresa May got support for her Brexit deal from the Cabinet. While this was expected, given what the media reported beforehand, it seems like it was not as easy as we had expected.