BTC/USD Forecast Poll

Overview

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.

Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.

Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.

price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.

smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.

min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.

WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?

The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.

You can also use the Outlook Poll for Contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at Fxstreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. The Di helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual predict, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price predict as well as the average bias.

BITCOIN FORECAST

In our BTC/USD Forecast Poll 2018, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2017, the average outlook for the pair is 18.875,497.

In the last 12 months, from July 2017 to July 2018, the maximum level for the BTC/USD (Bitcoin US Dollar) was 20.042,90 (on 07/12/17), and the minimum, 6.135,56 (on 06/02/18)

MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENTS IN 2018 FOR BITCOIN

In December 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the most diverse derivatives market in the world, launched Bitcoin futures with an opening that exceeds $ 20,000. This was the first step in the institutionalization of a cryptocurrency.

At the beginning of 2018, the North American regulatory institutions (SEC and CFTC) initiated a process of surveillance and qualification on cryptocurrencies.

In April 2018 a total of 16,000 Bitcoin were stolen from the Japanese exchange Mt. Gox, which at the time amounted to 141 million US Dollars. After this unfortunate event, the company was forced to return part of the funds extracted, which caused its closure.

It is expected that the creation of the first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) related to the cryptocurrency market will be approved during the fourth quarter of 2018.