BTC/USD Forecast Poll

Bitcoin: BTC’s Q3 close and what to expect in Q4?

  • Bitcoin price has developed a bullish divergence with RSI, hinting at more upside.
  • Despite the optimistic technicals, investors should expect volatile swings before the end of the third quarter of 2022.
  • A break under and flip of the $17,593 level into a resistance level will invalidate the bullish thesis for BTC.
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The extreme volatility of the cryptocurrencies and more specifically, Bitcoin, requires the trader to stay informed at all times about the latest technical analysis and BTC/USD forecast.


How to Read the Forecast Poll charts

OVERVIEW

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.


Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.


Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.


price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.


smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.


min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.


BTC/USD INTEREST


WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?

The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between the actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.

You can also use the Outlook Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The Di helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators


HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual predict, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price predict as well as the average bias.

BITCOIN FORECAST

In the BTC/USD Forecast Poll 2022, our dedicated contributors expect a bullish start of the year, but a modestly bearish outlook for the rest of the 2022. By the end of the year, the average outlook for the pair was 65.427,00.

From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the highest lever for BTC/USD was 68,925 on November 10th.


MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR BITCOIN

Bitcoin (BTC) had one of its less volatile years in 2021, with a 138% variation between the highest and lowest price point. Still, the year saw its fair share of whipsaws as BTC’s price action provided more entry and exit levels for investors to profit.

With the increase in regulation in the blockchain industry, the pioneer cryptocurrency is growing under the wings of the global financial markets to enter the post-pandemic era.

As a result of increased institutional interest, Bitcoin will become more and more part of an asset class used for rebalancing investment portfolios. Bitcoin is making its way into treasury management, becoming part of the corporate balance sheet and common households. Even local newly elected officials in the US are already putting pressure on the US government to get regulatory guidelines on the nascent asset class.

As 2022 looks to be the year when the world finally starts to coexist with Covid, expect global growth to pick up further and for there to be a rally in US equities. BTC can take advantage of this to enjoy another year of colossal upside potential and further gains.