- Bitcoin price upside potential has been capped by the $43,860 resistance level, the mean threshold of a weekly supply zone.
- With FOMO falling short, a correction to $30,000 seems likely for BTC as markets tend not to wait too long.
- A break and close above $43,860 on the weekly timeframe could bring the $50,000 psychological level within reach.
BTC/USD Forecast Poll
The extreme volatility of the cryptocurrencies and more specifically, Bitcoin, requires the trader to stay informed at all times about the latest technical analysis and BTC/USD forecast.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between the actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Outlook Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The Di helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual predict, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price predict as well as the average bias.
In the BTC/USD Forecast 2023, our dedicated contributors expect Bitcoin price to go as low as $9,550 and form a macro bottom before rallying to $30,000 by mid-to-late 2023.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the highest level for BTC/USD was $48,201 and the lowest level was $15,480.
MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR BITCOIN
Will Bitcoin look impressively bullish again? There are some key aspects that could make BTC move sideways.
Firstly, the US Federal Reserve could stimulate the economy by printing money. This development could draw more investors to borrow, triggering the start of another rally in stocks and crypto markets. Russia vs. Ukraine will reach a conclusion or a truce. The next step could include reversing policies related to Bitcoin mining, making mining more politically palatable.
Additionally, Brazil and other South American countries will implement crypto-friendly regulations and becomes a safe haven for the growth of the crypto industries. As the market picks up steam, it will attract more investors and more capital, thrusting the total crypto market capitalization to $6 trillion and higher. Major developments will occur with Ethereum, ZK-snark technology and the Web3 section of the crypto space.