USD/JPY Forecast Poll

WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?

The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.

You can also use the Forecast Poll for Contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at Fxstreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. The Forecast Poll helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators


HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual forecast, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these forecast biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

2017 FORECAST FOR USD/JPY

In our USD/JPY Forecast Poll 2017, our dedicated contributors expect the bullish trend to stop in the second half of the year. By the end of the year 2017, the average forecast for the pair is 120,7500. Read more details about the poll

In the last 12 months, from Feb 2016 to Feb 2017, the maximum level for the USD/JPY was 119 ¥/USD (on January 3rd 2017), and the minimum, 100¥/USD (on August 18 2016)


MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2017 FOR USD/JPY

Number one political event in 2017 for the USD/JPY pair is the Trump Presidency: tax cuts and government spendings strategy, geopolitics and international relations of the US, including decisions related to trade deals and multinational alliances.

In Japan, Forex traders will keep an eye on the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (the prefectural parliament of Tokyo) election in July.


BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST USD/JPY

Bonds whose moves can affect the USD/JPY pair: US 30y Tbonds, US 10y, JGB 2y, JGB 10y, JGB 30y. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF