USD/JPY Forecast Poll
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Forecast Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The Forecast Poll helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual forecast, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these forecast biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
2021 FORECAST FOR USD/JPY
In the USD/JPY Price Forecast 2021, our dedicated contributors seeing a sideways tendency. By the end of the year 2020, the average forecast for the pair is 103.2100. Read more details about the forecast.
From January 2020 to December 2020, the maximum level for the USDJPY was 112.28¥/USD (on February 19th 2020), and the minimum, 102.94¥/USD (on March 09th 2020).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2021 FOR USD/JPY
Political measures to counter coronavirus will be the market focus this 2021. The prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in worldwide central banks launching asset-buying and lending programs while keeping the main rates on hold at record lows.
The BoJ announced it “will conduct an assessment on further effective and sustainable monetary easing,” and pledged to maintain the current monetary easing until inflation reaches the 2% goal.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST USD/JPY
Bonds whose moves can affect the USD/JPY pair: US 30y Tbonds, US 10y, JGB 2y, JGB 10y, JGB 30y. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF