- China US trade dispute has dominated currencies in the second half of the year.
- Bank of Canada's weak advantage for loonie fading as Federal Reserve halts rate reductions.
- Retail sales for September on Friday will report on Canadian consumer strength.
USD/CAD Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll about USD/CAD (US Dollar Canadian Dollar) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
USD/CAD, THE “LOONIE”
The USD/CAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Loonie", a nickname derived from the picture of a loon, a distinctive bird which appears on one side of the Canada's gold-colored, one Dollar coin.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the USD/CAD pair are:
- The Bank of Canada that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates.
- Currencies: This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF
USD/CAD FORECAST FOR 2019
The Canadian Dollar suffered during a choppy 2018 that was dominated by trade talks and oil prices more than domestic economic indicators.
Trade talks are not over, nor the growing impact of oil and 2019 may see these feature in a different form, at least early in the year, before Canada's general elections take over the scene.
The BOC may raise rates twice in 2019. As we have already seen in the US, the markets may become more sensitive to wages. Salaries for full-time workers dropped in the past six months, and if the trend extends into 2019, the BOC may refrain from raising the rates. However, the overall economy is doing quite well, and wages are likely to turn around.
Some extra quotes about forecast in this page:
USD/CAD was on the rise due to weaknesses in Canada and a surge in the USD during 2018. The greenback may peak during 2019 as the Fed pauses or halts its tightening policy and as Trump may prefer rising stocks to fight trade wars.