USD/CAD Forecast Poll

The FXStreet Forecast Poll about USD/CAD ( US Dollar Canadian Dollar) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.


How to Read the Forecast Poll charts

Overview

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart, means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.


Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in number of “sideways”.


Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparisson between the average forecast price and the effective close price.


price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.


smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.


min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.


USD/CAD, THE “LOONIE”

The USD/CAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Loonie", a nickname derived from the picture of a loon, a distinctive bird which appears on one side of the Canada's gold-colored, one Dollar coin.


ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD

In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the USD/CAD pair are:

  • The Bank of Canada that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country.
  • Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
    In the USA, we have:
  • The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar.
  • Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates.
  • Currencies: This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF

USD/CAD FORECAST FOR 2017

In our annual forecast, our surveyed contributors expect the USD/CAD to reach the price of 1,4000 by the end of the year 2017. See full forecast
In terms of political events that can affect the pair this year, we have of course the Trump Presidency: tax cuts and government spendings strategy, geopolitics and international relations of the US, including decisions related to trade deals and multinational alliances. In Canada, we can highlight the New Democratic Party leadership election in October 2017 and the Conservative Party of Canada leadership election in May 2017.

Some extra quotes about forecast in this page:

Trade issues around possible NAFTA renegotiation and a strengthening US economy will be key. Question marks over real OPEC cuts will linger

Thomas Light

The Canadian dollar could be the big loser of 2017 due to oil prices remaining low, a slow transition to other sectors and not enough US demand for Canadian goods

Yohay Elam