- USD/CAD closes the week at par, after 18-month high trade at 1.3077.
- Risk aversion preference for US dollar abates on Friday as equities rebound.
- WTI falls 10.2% on Monday and Tuesday, recovers 9% by Friday.
- FFXStreet Forecast Poll expects another attempt at 1.3000 to end in failure.
USD/CAD Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll about USD/CAD (US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
USD/CAD, THE “LOONIE”
The USD/CAD pair tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Loonie", a nickname derived from the picture of a loon, a distinctive bird which appears on one side of the Canada's gold-colored, one Dollar coin.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the USD/CAD pair are:
- The Bank of Canada that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates.
- Currencies: This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF
USD/CAD FORECAST FOR 2022
Of the three main fundamental factors for the USD/CAD in 2022, the comparative Canadian and US economies, central bank interest rates and the price of oil, the first is a wash, the second tilt to the US and the third is unlikely to rise sufficiently to give the loonie a long-term advantage.
The US and Canadian economies are likely to grow at similar rates next year. Central bank rate speculation depends on the course of inflation. If the American inflation reports leading to the March FOMC meeting show high or accelerating price increases, a March fed funds hike will rise to a near certainty.
Some extra quotes about forecast in this page:
Highly negatively correlated with Oil recently. All fundamentals and big funds bets on a boom price of the Oil. This may appear in the next few years. For the following year, USDCAD may continue rising after it hits his monthly keyzone at 1.20800.