GBP/JPY Forecast Poll
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
The GBP/JPY pair tells the trader how many Japanese Yen (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one British Dollar (the base currency).
It is known to be a “carry currency cross”, that is a cross which is a vehicle for carry trading, a strategy that consists in buying a high yielding currency and funding it with a low yielding currency, similar to the adage "buy low, sell high."
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE GBP/JPY THE MOST
The GBP/JPY pair can also be impacted by:
- Currencies: USD and EUR. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/JPY
- Commodities: Oil.
- Bonds: Gilt (debt securities issued by the Bank of England), GJGB10 (Japan Generic Govt 10Y Yield) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security).
- Indices: FTSE 100 (share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization), Nikkei 225 (stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange), Dow Jones (DJIA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that shows how 30 large publicly owned companies based in the United States have traded during a standard trading session in the stock market).
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE GBP/JPY
The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the GBP/JPY pair are:
- Bank of England, known to be one of the most effective central banks in the world. It acts as the government's bank and the lender of last resort. It issues currency and oversees monetary policy (including interest rates).
- Bank of Japan that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. The BoJ has been applying very low interest rates for many years and even introduced a negative interest rate in January 2016, in an attempt lift consumer prices, which have been sliding for most of the past 20 years.
- UK Government and its Prime Minister, Boris Johnson who took office in July 2019, after British citizens voted for the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union (Brexit).
- Japanese Government and its Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, responsible of the so-called “Abenomics” economic policies which are based upon "three arrows" of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.
- UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.