GBP/JPY Forecast Poll

The FXStreet Forecast Poll about GBP/JPY ( Pound Japanese Yen) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.


How to Read the Forecast Poll charts

Overview

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart, means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.


Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in number of “sideways”.


Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparisson between the average forecast price and the effective close price.


price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.


smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.


min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.


GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY pair tells the trader how many Japanese Yen (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one British Dollar (the base currency). It is known to be a “carry currency cross”, that is a cross which is a vehicle for carry trading, a strategy that consists in buying a high yielding currency and funding it with a low yielding currency, similar to the adage "buy low, sell high."


FORECAST FOR 2017

FXStreet’s contributors, surveyed at the end of December 2016, globally expect a bullish evolution for the pair, though their forecasts were broadly spread out. The Median Forecast is at 150,0000 for the end of 2017. The lack of consensus on this forecast might be due to the uncertainty that the Brexit negotiations and its issue have been arousing in the markets. See full forecast

Yen selling pressure continues whilst Brexit GBP fears soften slightly as the hard/soft debate abates

Thomas Light

Found a bottom and should rise further

Markus Gabel

ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE GBP/JPY

The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the GBP/JPY pair are:

  • Bank of England, known to be one of the most effective central banks in the world. It acts as the government's bank and the lender of last resort. It issues currency and, most importantly, it oversees monetary policy (including interest rates).
  • Bank of Japan that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its Governor is currently Haruhiko Kuroda. The BoJ has been applying very low interest rates for many years and even introduced a negative interest rate in January 2016, in an attempt lift consumer prices, which have been sliding for most of the past 20 years.
  • UK Government and its Prime Minister, Theresa May who took office in July 2016, after British citizens voted for the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union (Brexit).
  • Japanese Government and its Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, responsible of the so-called “Abenomics” economic policies which are based upon "three arrows" of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.