WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in predicted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Outlook Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The prediction helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price prediction as well as the average bias.
2022 FORECAST FOR GBP/USD
In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2022, our dedicated contributors expect a continuation of the bullish trend during the
year. By the end of 2021, the average price for the pair is 1.3368. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the GBPUSD (Pound US Dollar) was 1.4213 (on 31/05/21), and the minimum, 1.3205 (on 8/12/21).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR GBP/USD
Number one political event in 2022 for the pound to US dollar pair is still being Brexit. BoE's fiscal policy and covid will be key too. These clouds are set to clear at various paces, making way for rapid changes and new challenges. Although 2021 was still dedicated to minor Brexit issues and fighting covid, 2022 could be when the UK goes its own way. Losing “equivalence” would make the country less attractive to investments while maintaining the current status could cause trouble within the ruling Conservative Party. Investors prefer equivalence, but any doubts about it could weigh on sterling.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST GBP/USD
Bonds whose moves can impact the GBP/USD pair: T-BOND 30y; T-NOTE 10y; GILT 30y; BUND 30y; JGB 30y - GBP/USD traders should closely watch when trading it: UK 2y Gilt, UK 5y Gilt, UK 10y Gilt, UK 30y Gilt. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD,NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF