WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in predicted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Outlook Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The prediction helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price prediction as well as the average bias.
2023 FORECAST FOR GBP/USD
In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2023, our dedicated contributors expect a continuation of the bullish trend during the
year. By the end of 2022, the average price for the pair is 1.3368. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the maximum level for the GBPUSD (Pound US Dollar) was 1.2418 (on 14/12/22), and the minimum, 1.0339 (on 26/09/22).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR GBP/USD
What caused the pound to US dollar pair downfall in 2022? the severity of the decline was intense mainly due to the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) in the first half of 2022. Meanwhile, the failure of the United Kingdom (UK) political system collaborated with the collapse of the Pound Sterling against the United States Dollar (USD) in the second half of the year.
Additionally, the British economy was badly hit by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that took place in February last year. The West responded with harsh sanctions on Russia, as Moscow refused to stay quiet and cut the gas supplies to Europe and the United Kingdom among other restrictive measures.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST GBP/USD
Bonds whose moves can impact the GBP/USD pair: T-BOND 30y; T-NOTE 10y; GILT 30y; BUND 30y; JGB 30y - GBP/USD traders should closely watch when trading it: UK 2y Gilt, UK 5y Gilt, UK 10y Gilt, UK 30y Gilt. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD,NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF