EUR/USD Forecast Poll

WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?

The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.

You can also use the Outlook Poll for Contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at Fxstreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. The Di helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators

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HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual predict, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price predict as well as the average bias.

2017 FORECAST FOR EUR/USD

In our EUR/USD Forecast Poll 2017, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to slow down during the year. By the end of the year 2017, the average outlook for the pair is 1,0200. Read more details about the poll.

In the last 12 months, from Feb 2016 to Feb 2017, the maximum level for the EUR/USD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1534 (on 05/02/16), and the minimum, 1.0388 (on 12/20/16)

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MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2017 FOR EUR/USD

In terms of politics, the focus in 2017 will be the moves and decisions taken by the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, and his administration. Tax cuts or government spendings strategy will influence Fed’s interest rates decision. Geopolitics and international relations of the US will also play a role in the moves of the EUR/USD this year, including decisions related to trade deals and multinational alliances.

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BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST EUR/USD

Bonds whose moves can impact the EUR/USD: T-BOND 30y; T-NOTE 10y. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF