WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Outlook Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to 'contrarian' thinking. The Di helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual predict, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price predict as well as the average bias.
2022 FORECAST FOR EUR/USD
In the EURUSD 2022 Forecast, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to continue, almost during the Q1 and the Q2 of 2022. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1306. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2328 (on 06/01/21), and the minimum, 1.1200 (on 24/12/21).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR EUR/USD
Much water has run under the bridge in 2021. Central bankers from around the world have been cooling down speculation on persistently high inflation, calling in “temporarily,” and forecasting it would slowly stabilize to more suitable levels by 2022. But make no mistake: Hot inflation is the elephant in the room. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year. The coronavirus pandemic that hit the world in March 2020 still goes on and will also be a critical event in 2022, although there’s a better economic perspective.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST EUR/USD
Bonds whose moves can impact the EUR/USD: T-BOND 30y; T-NOTE 10y. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF