USD/CHF Forecast Poll
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Forecast Poll for contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at FXStreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. The Forecast Poll helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual forecast, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these forecast biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST USD/CHF
Bonds whose moves can affect the USD/CHF pair: SBI T, Bund, T Note.
MOST INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR USD/CHF
The organizations that most impact the USD/CHF are the Central Banks of Switzerland (SNB, the Swiss National Bank) and of the United States (Fed, Federal Reserve of the United States), the two countries that issue the currencies that make the pair.
The central bank of the Eurozone (the ECB, European Central Bank) also has influence on the Swissie due to the importance of business and trade between the EU and Switzerland. Any assessment of possible scenarios linked to a macroeconomic decision taken by the ECB has impact on its commercial partners.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is also an organization to take into account when trading the Swiss Franc. It is an international financial institution owned by central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks". It also provides banking services, but only to central banks and other international organizations. It is based in Basel, Switzerland.
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) is the Swiss government body responsible for financial regulation. As a state regulatory body, FINMA is endowed with supreme authority over banks, insurance companies, stock exchanges, securities dealers and collective investment schemes.
Finally, the SIX Swiss Exchange (formerly SWX Swiss Exchange), based in Zurich, is Switzerland's principal stock exchange (the other being Berne eXchange). The moves and evolution of this market are watched by CHF traders.