USD/CHF Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll about USD/CH ( US Dollar Switzerland Franc) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart, means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparisson between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
WHAT IS THE FORECAST POLL AND WHY TO USE IT?
The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
You can also use the Forecast Poll for Contrarian thinking strategies. Gonçalo Moreira, Research expert at Fxstreet, explains: “People involuntarily follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. The Forecast Poll helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior.” Read more on Contrarian Approaches with Sentiment indicators
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual forecast, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these forecast biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
2017 FORECAST FOR USD/CHF
In our USD/CHF Forecast Poll 2017, our dedicated contributors expect the uptrend to extend throughout the year. By the end of 2017, the average forecast for the pair is 1,0758. Read more details about the poll
In the last months, from Feb 2016 to Feb 2017, the maximum level for the USD/CHF was 1.03017 (on December 15, 2016), and the minimum, 0.95373 (on April 8, 2016).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2017 FOR USD/CHF
Number one political event in 2017 for the USD/CHF is the Trump Presidency: tax cuts and government spendings strategy, geopolitics and international relations of the US, including decisions related to trade deals and multinational alliances.
Also of high importance for the pair will be the political situation of Switzerland’s direct neighbors. In particular, 2017 will be the year of presidential election in France (April 23 for the first round, May 7 for the second one) and of the German federal election (on September 24). Finally, the political instability in Italy will be closely watched. Paolo Gentiloni took over as Prime Minister after Matteo Renzi resigned in response to the rejection of his constitutional reforms at a referendum in November 2016. This happened in a complicated economic situation where key Italian banks are on the verge of bankruptcy and capital is flowing out of the country.
BONDS THAT INFLUENCE THE MOST USD/CHF
Bonds whose moves can affect the USD/CHF pair: SBI T, Bund, T Note.