EUR/GBP Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll about EUR/GBP ( Euro Pound) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart, means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparisson between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
The EUR/GBP pair tells the trader how many British Pounds (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Euro (the base currency). This is one of the most traded currency pairs. Since the European and British economies are massively intertwined (large amounts of capital are exchanged on a daily basis between the UK and all European countries), the pair tends to be relatively stable. But events and news related to the exit of Great Britain of the European Union in 2017 will probably affect the pair and create choppier movements than usual.
FORECAST FOR 2017
FXStreet’s contributors, surveyed at the end of December 2016, forecasts that this “politics-dominated cross” will be at 0,8350 by the end of 2017.
They call it a “politics-dominated” pair because 2017 is a year with several important milestones. First of them is obviously the implementation of the so-called Brexit.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE EUR/GBP
The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the EUR/GBP pair are:
- Bank of England, known to be one of the most effective central banks in the world. It acts as the government's bank and the lender of last resort.
- European Central Bank whose main objective is to maintain price stability for the Euro. The ECB sets and implements the monetary policy for the Eurozone (including interest rates).
- The Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May, who took the leadership of the UK Government in July 2016 following the EU referendum, will stay under the spotlight as the person at the head of the “Brexit” negotiations between his country and the European Union.