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2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.
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2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.
Gold skyrockets in 2025 amid safe haven flows and Fed cut bets. Investors anticipate more than two rate cuts for next year. Geopolitical conflicts, tariffs and central bank buying also drivers.
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Cryptocurrencies
Dogecoin extends its decline as risk-off sentiment dominates across the crypto market. DOGE’s derivatives market remains weak amid suppressed futures Open Interest and perpetual funding rate.
Bitcoin remains under pressure, trading above the $87,000 support at the time of writing on Tuesday. Selling pressure has continued to weigh on the broader cryptocurrency market since Monday, triggering declines across altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple.
Chainlink (LINK) is down 2% at press time on Tuesday, adding to a nearly 5% decline in December so far. The oracle token risks a negative close for the fourth straight month, potentially signaling a bearish start to 2026.
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Stocks
NASDAQ remains capped by institutional supply, reacting below a Daily and H4 bearish Fair Value Gap, signaling controlled distribution rather than trend expansion. The primary driver of price action is interest-rate expectations, with elevated U.S. yields suppressing aggressive risk-on flows into tech.
Yearly Forecast
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending gains for the third successive session and trading around 98.60 during the European hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December later in the day.
Having wrapped up 2025 on a positive note, the Pound Sterling (GBP) eyes another meaningful and upbeat year against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of 2026.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is not having the best year-end. A combination of weak economic growth, concerns about government spending, and uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy path has created a perfect storm for the JPY, which has been one of the worst-performing major currencies in the last quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.
