USD/CNY: Policy support anchors regional FX – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

MUFG Bank analysts Lin Li and Khang Sek Lee note the People’s Bank of China is keeping USDCNY fixings below 7.0000, allowing the Chinese Yuan to act as a stabilizing anchor for Asia FX. Analysts expect subdued CPI to sustain a dovish PBOC stance and see scope for a 10 bps policy rate cut and 50 bps RRR reduction by Q1 if growth disappoints.

CNY resilience but growth still soft

"We expect the CNY to remain a stabilizing anchor for most regional FX, supported by the PBOC continuing to set the daily USDCNY fixing rate below the 7.0000 level."

"If there is any downside growth surprise in the first two months (next official data release for retail sales, FAI etc is mid-March), we may see a further easing of 10bps cut on policy rate and 50bps cut on RRR by Q1."

"While this may signal PBoC shift to allow slightly more CNY appreciation, we remain cautious of the appreciation pace as domestic activities have remained soft which increased the risk of imminent rate cuts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD edges higher despite delaying BoE rate hike expectations

GBP/USD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours. However, the British Pound may encounter headwinds as recent declines in Brent crude oil prices ease immediate inflation concerns. This shift has led money markets to push back expectations for the Bank of England's next interest rate hike from late 2026 into early 2027.

EUR/USD gains on hawkish ECB policy outlook

EUR/USD edges higher after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours. The pair gains ground, bolstered by the European Central Bank’s hawkish monetary policy outlook.

Gold resumes profit-taking pullback before Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Gold is back in the red below $4,600 early Friday, resuming its corrective decline from 15-week highs of $4,697 earlier this week. Gold bulls are consolidating the upside, awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s debut at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

Pi holds steady as Core Team focuses on distributed AI infrastructure

Pi Network (PI) price hovers above $0.0900 on Friday, sustaining the mild 3% gains recorded over the last two days. Pi Core Team announced the launch of new SoloHost apps, OpenClaw and Atlassian MCP Server, on Thursday, in hopes of expanding the Pi ecosystem. PI token must reclaim the $0.1000 psychological threshold for a sustained recovery.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September. The Jackson Hole symposium, held from August 27 to 29, has the official theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.