Forex Today: Antipodeans lifted by solid Chinese PMI, focus on UK PMI, US NFP


A sense of calm prevailed across the fx space amid a typical pre-NFP caution trading in Asia this Friday. The US dollar remained broadly lower, still hit by the FOMC follow-through, despite the bounce in the Treasury yields that dragged Gold lower from weekly tops.  

The Antipodeans once again outperformed after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data showed a big beat on the expectations with a 51.7 figure in October. Although the upside remained limited by re-emergence of US-China trade concerns. The Aussie consolidated the data-led spike above the 0.69 handle while the Kiwi eased-off daily tops of 0.6442 but still remained well bid above the 0.6400 level. The USD/JPY pair bounced-off lows and recovered to the 108 handle, tracking the rise in the Wall Street futures and Treasury yields.  The Canadian dollar continues to find some support from the modest gains seen in oil prices while the Swissie traded modestly flat ahead of the Swiss Retail Sales report.

Heading into Europe, both the European currencies, the EUR/USD and Cable are trading with mild gains. The Fiber’s upside still remains capped below 1.1170/75 levels while GBP/USD holds above the 1.2950 barrier ahead of the UK Manufacturing PMI release.

Main Topics in Asia

US Pres. Trump: UK Labour leader Corbyn would be 'so bad' for Britain

N. Korea says it successfully test-fired super-large multiple rocket launcher – Yonhap

US imposes further sanctions on Iran, relating to construction/missile program

Japan finmin Aso: Not considering need to compile economic stimulus measures now

BOJ offers to buy JPY 380 bln worth of JGBs

Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 vs expectations of 51, AUD/USD firms

USD/IDR stays firmer as Indonesia's annualized CPI misses estimates with 3.13%

China's Communist Party’s Official: Will create environment for all types of firms to compete on equal footing

Key Focus Ahead

We have another busy day ahead, in term of the economic calendar, with plenty of key event risks ahead while markets await fresh updates on the US-China trade issue. Recall that the leading negotiators from both the US and China are likely to hold a telephonic conversation on trade later today. Meanwhile, any fresh Brexit/ UK political headlines will also grab some eyeballs, with all eyes set on the December 12 polls.

On the macro data front, the EUR calendar is relatively light, with the Swiss Retail Sales data due on the cards at 0730 GMT alongside other minority reports from Switzerland. However, the UK Manufacturing PMI, due at 0930 GMT will headline. In the NA session, the main focus will be on US Nonfarm Payrolls along with the jobless rate and hourly wage growth data, all to be released at once at 1230 GMT. Also, the US Manufacturing sector activity reports from both Markit as well as ISM will be eyed around 1400 GMT. The US economic news will offer fresh hints on whether the Fed will resort to another rate cut in December.

Later in the American mid-morning, we have a slew of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials scheduled to speak, including Williams, Clarida and Quarles. At 1700 GMT, oil traders will look forward to the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count data.

EUR/USD: Market turns indecisive ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

The EUR/USD market seems to have turned indecisive ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show the job growth slowed in October due to the General Motors strike. The spot could drop below key support at 1.1131 if the US wage growth numbers blow past expectations. 

GBP/USD holds on to recovery gains ahead of UK PMI, US NFP

GBP/USD keeps the bids amid UK political optimism, greenback weakness. US-China trade story keeps risk sentiment dwindled ahead of the key data. Fedspeak and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI add to the catalysts.

US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: The trend remains the same

October payrolls are expected to fall on General Motors strike. ADP jobs of 125,000 in October were at the three-month trend. Consumer economy and sentiment remain strong backed by labor market.

US October Manufacturing PMI Preview: Waiting for the China deal

Modest rebound in sentiment forecast but index will remain in contraction. The unsigned phase one trade deal with China has had a little positive effect as yet. Export orders in September were the weakest since the recession.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Oct 31
24h
 
 
Friday, Nov 01
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
07:30
 
 
-1.4%
07:30
 
0.0%
0.1%
07:30
 
0.0%
-0.1%
07:30
 
47.1
46.3
08:30
 
 
-23%
08:30
 
44.6
44.9
08:30
 
45.0
44.6
09:00
 
 
$14.44B
09:00
 
 
53.6
09:00
 
76.12K
76.54K
09:00
 
2.1%
2.2%
09:30
 
48.1
48.3
12:00
 
0.3%
0.8%
12:00
 
-3.0%
-2.3%
12:00
 
 
49.140 Revised from 49.191
12:30
 
63.2%
63.2%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.0%
12:30
 
3.6%
3.5%
12:30
 
7.2%
6.9%
12:30
 
3.0%
2.9%
12:30
 
34.4
34.4
12:30
 
89K
136K
13:00
 
51.9
53.4
13:00
 
 
$440.75B
13:00
 
 
-20.99B
13:30
 
51.3
51.0
13:45
 
51.5
51.5
14:00
 
49.9
49.7
14:00
 
48.9
47.8
14:00
 
0.2%
0.1%
16:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
696
17:00
 
 
18:00
 
3.200B
2.246B
18:30
 
 
19:30
 
 
366.2K
19:30
 
 
$259.1K
19:30
 
 
$23.3K
19:30
 
 
17.2M
19:30
 
 
£-52.4K
19:30
 
 
¥-18.2K
19:30
 
 
€-51K
19:30
 
 
$-44K
Saturday, Nov 02
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Sunday, Nov 03
24h
 
 
07:00
 
 
07:00
 
 
Monday, Nov 04
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:30
 
-2.9%
0.3%
00:30
 
0.2%
0.4%
01:00
 
 
0.1%
01:00
 
 
1.5%
06:45
 
-8
-8
07:00
 
 
2.45%
07:00
 
 
0.13%
07:00
 
1.30%
0.99%
07:00
 
9.60%
9.26%
07:00
 
0.27%
0.00%
07:45
 
 
€-123.1B
08:00
 
47.9
47.8
08:00
 
 
51.8
08:15
 
48.2
47.7
08:30
 
 
272.1K
08:30
 
 
6.7%
08:45
 
48.1
47.8
08:50
 
50.5
50.5
08:55
 
41.9
41.9
09:00
 
45.7
45.7
09:30
 
44.0
43.3
09:30
 
-13.0
-16.8
10:30
 
 
3.7%
11:00
 
 
-1.9B
12:00
 
 
$119.473B
13:00
 
49.4
49.5
14:45
 
45.8
42.8
15:00
 
-0.3%
-0.1%
16:00
 
 
445B
16:30
 
 
1.61%
16:30
 
 
1.62%
19:00
 
 
21:30
 
 
51.5
22:00
 
402.11B
403.32B
22:00
 
50.8
50.8
22:00
 
 
50.7
23:50
 
2.9%
3.0%
Tuesday, Nov 05
00:00
 
0.2%
0.0%
00:01
 
0.5%
-1.7%
00:01
 
 
53.1
00:30
 
43.6
41.5
01:45
 
52.8
51.3
03:30
 
 
03:30
 
 
0.75%
07:00
 
 
07:00
 
 
08:00
 
 
13.9K
08:00
 
 
3%
08:30
 
 
0%
08:30
 
 
2.5%
08:30
 
 
-1.1%
09:30
 
50.0
49.5
10:00
 
-0.4%
-0.5%
10:00
 
-0.7%
-0.8%
13:30
 
$-55.5B
$-54.9B
13:30
 
 
$51.54B
13:30
 
 
$-0.96B
13:30
 
 
$50.58B
13:55
 
 
4.5%
13:55
 
 
0%
14:30
 
1.9%
0.5%
14:45
 
 
51
14:45
 
 
51.2
15:00
 
7.211M
7.051M
15:00
 
53.2
52.6
n/a
 
 
52.6
16:30
 
 
1.6%
18:00
 
 
1.413%
21:30
 
 
0.592M
21:45
 
0.3%
0.8%
21:45
 
4.0%
3.9%
21:45
 
70.9%
70.4%
21:45
 
0.2%
0.8%
21:45
 
2.0%
2.2%
23:00
 
8.45B
5.27B
23:50
 
 
Wednesday, Nov 06
00:30
 
50.3
52.8
01:00
 
3.84%
3.82%
01:00
 
0.15%
0.23%
06:00
 
 
53.6
07:00
 
-6.2%
-6.7%
07:00
 
2.9%
-0.6%
07:05
 
 
1.5%
08:00
 
4.8%
1.7%
08:00
 
 
-1.5%
08:00
 
 
0.3%
08:00
 
 
5.8%
08:00
 
 
-1.2%
08:00
 
 
-2.4%
08:00
 
 
8.6B
08:15
 
53.8
53.3
08:45
 
50.4
51.4
08:50
 
51.3
52.6
08:50
 
51.6
52.9
08:55
 
52.5
51.2
08:55
 
48.6
48.6
08:55
 
 
3.25%
09:00
 
 
1.1%
09:00
 
50.2
50.2
09:00
 
52.0
51.8
10:00
 
-0.6%
0.3%
10:00
 
1.5%
2.1%
11:00
 
 
6.3%
11:30
 
 
10%
12:00
 
 
0.6%
12:00
 
45.9
44.7
12:00
 
 
45.3
13:00
 
1.5%
1.5%
13:00
 
2.5%
2.5%
13:00
 
 
-0.2%
13:30
 
1.0%
2.3%
13:30
 
2.7%
2.6%
15:00
 
 
5.702M
15:00
 
 
55.8
15:00
 
54.4
48.7
18:00
 
 
1.59%
18:00
 
 
-6.4%
21:30
 
 
42.6
Thursday, Nov 07
24h
 
 
00:30
 
 
-3%
00:30
 
 
0%
00:30
 
6,000M
5,926M
02:00
 
 
1.86%
03:35
 
 
-0.16%
05:00
 
 
12.8%
05:30
 
 
2.6%
06:00
 
 
$44.058B
06:00
 
 
$54.856B
07:00
 
-2.9%
-4.0%
07:00
 
-0.1%
0.3%
07:00
 
 
-1.1%
07:00
 
 
€-0.24B
07:00
 
-0.3%
-1.1%
07:45
 
 
6%
08:00
 
$3.089T
$3.092T
08:00
 
 
3.7%
08:00
 
 
777B
08:30
 
0.3%
-0.4%
08:30
 
1.4%
1.1%
09:00
 
1.1%
-0.6%
09:00
 
1.0%
0.7%
09:00
 
 
16.9%
09:00
 
 
272.2B
09:00
 
 
€131.64B
09:00
 
 
09:30
 
 
92.4
n/a
 
 
0.253%
n/a
 
 
-0.447%
n/a
 
 
-0.221%
n/a
 
 
-0.24%
10:00
 
 
11:00
 
 
-1.8%
11:00
 
 
-0.2%
11:00
 
 
-0.3%
11:00
 
 
0.6%
11:00
 
 
0.9%
12:00
 
 
$-19M
12:00
 
0.29%
0.30%
12:00
 
0.26%
0.26%
12:00
 
3%
3%
12:00
 
£435B
£435B
12:00
 
0.75%
0.75%
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
 
9
12:00
 
 
0
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
 
0
12:00
 
2%
2%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
-0.04%
13:00
 
 
€110.5B
13:30
 
 
1.69M
13:30
 
 
214.75K
13:30
 
 
218K
14:00
 
 
$539.9B
15:30
 
 
89B
15:30
 
 
-21.65B
18:00
 
 
2.17%
20:00
 
$16.0B
$17.9B
23:30
 
0.4%
-0.1% Revised from -0.2%
23:30
 
0.1%
1.0%
23:50
 
 
$1,322.6B
23:50
 
 
¥-1,018.5B
23:50
 
 
¥649.5B
Friday, Nov 08
00:30
 
1.3%
1.8%
01:30
 
 
05:00
 
91.7
91.9
05:00
 
99.5
99.0
05:30
 
 
0.9%
06:00
 
 
0.4%

 

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