Currency market: March 2016 vs 2018, 2020 and 2022

March 2016

EUR/USD. Topside points 1.1281, 1.1290, 1.1302, 1.1317, 1.1373. Further 1.1406, 1.1457, 1.1470, DXY. From current 95.07, topside at 97.00’s. Both headline interest rate at 0.50 and Fed Funds at 0.37 trade comfortably between 8 and 9 year average.

Today's 0.50 headline and Fed Funds at 0.33.

USD 10Y yield minus 2Y = 0.9873, 10 minus 3 month = 1.61. Te 10 minus 2 year today = 0.157. The 10 year minus 3 month = 1.793 or no change.

EUR/USD V NZD/USD. EUR/USD prices should be between 1.0938 – 1.0876, the big point remains 1.0907. NZD/USD is correct between 0.6682 – 0.6594 with big vital point 0.6638, AUD/USD targets easily achieved at 0.7317. Overnight 0.7330.

No change from today.  No changes to trades and targets. Began in 2012.

March 2018

USD/JPY was and remains deeply oversold at 113.00’s, 111.00’s and 110.00’s. No change today.

EUR/AUD at the time of Wednesday’s post hit its highs at 1.6192 and so far touched 1.5982 for a 210 pip and ongoing gain. EUR/AUD since yesterday’s top at 1.6191 dropped 167 pips to 1.6024.

 EUR/GBP from 0.8797 and on the approach to 0.8823 dropped 63 pips to 0.8734. USD/JPY from 104.71 and Sunday’s open profited 100 pips at 105.74 on a strict target trade. At 1.2777 is required to see CAD gain downside speed as it sits in slight overbought territory.

EUR/GBP today 0.8300, USD/JPY 119.00's and USD/CAD 1.2603. USD/JPY changed significantly.

EUR/GBP represents 12 pairs posted in 8 days and all pairs posted performed to the exact expectation as written and the result for each pair was minimum 100 pips.

The past EUR/JPY 4 week and 303 pip range from 132.44 to 129.41.

USD/CAD break points below are located at 1.2720, 1.2637, 1.2474, 1.2355 and 1.2232.  No change today.

The BOE and ECB for example are hard at work on “risk free” interest rates. The USD and Fed just released SOFR as a new overnight interest rate to trade alongside Libor.

On the interest rate front, USD short rates now trade above Fed funds over last 4 days, Happened 1 time since last rate rise and overall a rare day to see this. It just doesn’t happen  Only 6 times since Fed began raises has short rates traded above Fed Funds, 4 times in last 4 days, short rates are to high and always drop back to reality to normally support USD, Normally this scenario supports USD pairs.

Today, all short rates trade above Fed Funds over many years.

AUD/USD contained a negative 43% correlation to Australia OIS rates. AUD/USD was the problem and to correct then  AUD higher or OIS lower.

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR and USD/JPY was the main highlights to EUR due to perfect opposite currencies and Correlation. CAD/ZAR is the main currency to forecast commoddities as CAD/ZAR represents a USD pair and commodities are priced in USD. No changes since WW 1.

Shame the 35 trades  and targets achieved never posted on my blog at btwomey.com but posted on the websites. The criteria was 100 pip trades or no trades posted. Multiple 1000's of pips achieved.

No changes to trades and targets.

March 2020

As mentioned in last week’s trade post, ranges for all currency pairs expanded and allowed far distant targets to achieve destinations. Approximately 4 more weeks remain to wide ranges and affects all currency pairs as markets trade to normalized prices. Wide ranges means the current trading environment is the best opportunity in 2 years to profit easily from practically any pair chosen. The next 2 year cycle to experience easy trades to the current degree is 2022.

Best pairs this week to trade against wide ranges are GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY. Second tier GBP/USD, USD/CAD, GBPCHF. Third layer contains AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY. NZD is a well functioning universe of currency pairs but lands in 4th position due to smaller ranges. AUD significantly woke up from its months long coma and is now on the march.

Normalcy may take as much as 3 months and this allows for plenty more great trade opportunities and easy trades. After normalcy achieves, expertise is required to hit trade targets.Fairly normal functioning currency market price ranges and deviations run 300 to 600 pips. This means trade targets at the lower 300 pip point contain trade targets at about 100 to 150 pips per currency pair and per weekly trade.

GBP/CHF 2020 target 1.2879 Vs 2018 at 1.3200’s. Target = 800 pips, achieved.

GBP/USD. 2020 target 1.3385 vs 2018 at 1.3600, 1.3800 then 1.3400’s. Target 1.3400’s achieved. 1.3385 = 400 pips from 1.2900’s.AUD/USD. 2020 target 0.7300 Vs 2018 at 0.7800’s. An 800 pip target.

EUR/JPY 2020 target 123.00’s Vs 2018 at 125. A 500 pip target. GBP/JPY. 2020 target 144 vs 2018 at 147.00’s. Target achieved. An 800 pip target. EUR/AUD. 2020 target 1.5900’s Vs 2018 at 1.5900’s. No changes. A 1400 pip target.

USD/CAD. 2020 target 1.2900’s, Vs 2018 at 1.2800’s. No changes. An 800 pip target. NZD/USD. 2020 target 0.6700’s vs 2018 at 0.7000’s. A 400 Pip target.

March 2018 was the last time long term trades for 500 and 1000 pips became abundant and affected all currency pairs. As March 2019 was dead to long term trades, March 2020 and the same 500 and 1000 pip trades are upon us. A review from March to May 2018 was seen in the 35 posted trades and many targets hit perfectly for 700 ish pips.

EUR/CAD achieved 1.4500’s target, EUR/USD achieved 1.0946 target, CHF/JPY achieved 112.04 target from 114.09, USD/SEK achieved target for 515 pips. EUR/JPY achieved target.

CAD/ZAR March 2018 traded 9.000's and 11.000's March 2020. Since March 2020, CAD/ZAR traded 13.0000's to current 11.0000's.

No changes to trades and targets.

March 2022

Trade targets factor from 3 to 500 to 600 pips at the high end. That's 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

In 2016, Big Sis Yellen the communist ruled the Fed to everybody's destruction. She performed her function as did Bernanke. Powell now rules the Fed and has been sucked into far left politics much the same as Yellen and Bernanke. Powell entered as Greenspan and leaves as Obama and Biden.

As always, great analysis and timely trades. To bad it all must drop.