EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and declined to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data. Week-end flows, however, helped the pair erase its daily losses.
GBP/USD recovered toward 1.2550 after coming in within a touching distance of 1.2500 in the second half of the day after Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 199,000 for November. Despite the recent rebound, the pair remains on track to snap a three-week winning streak.
Gold broke below its daily range and declined toward $2,010 with the immediate reaction to the upbeat US November jobs report. Although XAU/USD managed to recover toward $2,020, rising US Treasury bond yields triggered another leg lower.
When the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged back in November for the second meeting in a row there was still the distinct possibility that the final meeting of 2023 would provide the possibility of one more rate rise to round off the year in line with Fed policymakers dot plot forecasts of 5.6%.
The EUR/GBP pair tells the trader how many British Pounds (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Euro (the base currency). This is one of the most traded currency pairs. Since the European and British economies are massively intertwined (large amounts of capital are exchanged on a daily basis between the United Kingdom and all European countries), the pair tends to be relatively stable but events and news related to the exit of Great Britain of the European Union will probably affect the pair and create choppier movements than usual. A public vote (known as a referendum) was held in June 2016, when 17.4 million people opted for Brexit. This gave the Leave side 52%, compared with 48% for Remain. The UK officially left the EU on 31st of January 2020.
HISTORIC HIGHS AND LOWS FOR EUR/GBP
All-time records: Max: 0.98049 on 29/12/2008 - Min: 0.56870 on 01/05/2000
Last 5 years:: Max: 0.9324 on 12/08/2019 - Min: 0.69307 on 13/07/2015
* Data as of February 2020
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE EUR/GBP THE MOST
Currencies: USD and YEN.
Commodities: Oil and Gold.
Bonds: Gilt (debt securities issued by the Bank of England) and Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government).
Indices: FTSE 100 (share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization), ESTX50 (ESTX50 (Euro Stoxx 50, a stock index of Eurozone stocks designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by Deutsche Börse Group) and DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex, German stock index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange).
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE EUR/GBP
The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the EUR/GBP pair are:
Bank of England (BoE), known to be one of the most effective central banks in the world. It acts as the government's bank and the lender of last resort. It issues currency and oversees monetary policy (including interest rates). Andrew Bailey is the new Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. Her Majesty the Queen has approved the appointment. He is widely and deeply respected for his leadership managing the financial crisis, developing the new regulatory frameworks, and supporting financial innovation to better serve UK households and businesses.
European Central Bank (ECB) whose main objective is to maintain price stability for the Euro. Headed by Christine Lagarde, the ECB sets and implements the monetary policy for the Eurozone (including interest rates), conducts foreign exchange operations and takes care of the foreign reserves of the European System of Central Banks.
London’s City Financial District: This is still the largest and most developed financial market in the world and as a result banking and finance have become strong contributors to the national economic growth.
The Prime Minister of Great Britain Rishi Sunak, serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since October 2022.
Olaf Scholz, at the head of Germany, the strongest economy of the European Union, is also an important figure for any Euro-related currency cross.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the EUR/GBP traders have to keep an eye on:
GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing.
Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.