Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: betting odds put Trump ahead

FXStreet Team FXStreet

United States citizens are deciding who will rule the destiny of the world’s largest economy today. Either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will become the 47^th President of the United States.

Over the weekend, one of the major betting platforms, PredictIt, showed that Harris became the slight favorite to win the US presidential election, surpassing Trump for the first time since early October. This lead, however, remained short-lived as Trump moved to the top again on the platform, albeit with a small margin.

Although US presidential election betting odds should not be taken as a representative view of US voters, they might still trigger a reaction in financial markets. Unlike PredictIt, RealCelarPolling's average for betting odds currently has Trump with at a comfortable lead against Harris, 57.7 vs 40.7.

According to Reuters, betting site PredictIT showed Harris at 54 to Trump on 53, compared to 42 to 61 just a week ago.

Nevertheless, polls show the race remains tight. Neither Harris nor Trump has a clear lead, with polls showing a modest 1 to 2-point lead favoring one or other candidate. The election will likely be defined by the so-called seven swing states, that is, states without a clear winner at sight, as opposed to most US states, which clearly lean towards either Republicans or Democrats

“Polls will start closing at 19:00 EST or 00:00 GMT, and the excitement on exit polls will likely move markets, although the final result could take a couple of days. The focus will be on the key seven swing states, with Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania among the first to report,” notes Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet.com Chief Analyst.

Follow our live coverage of the market reaction to the US presidential election as counting results start hitting the wires.

Top Battlegrounds: Trump vs. Harris

According to www.realclearpolling.com

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7000 on softer USD, ahead of Chinese data

AUD/USD consolidates below 0.7000 in Wednesday’s Asian session, ahead of China's inflation and trade balance data. However, focus will be on the US consumer inflation figures, which will drive the US Dollar and provide a fresh impetus. Meanwhile, the recent pullback in US bond yields keeps the USD below an 18-month low, though hawkish Fed and geopolitical risks limit losses, capping the currency pair.

USD/JPY consolidates below 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY steadies below mid-158.00s during the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping the upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the currency pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures.

Gold: Bears struggle to breach below $4,150

Gold now gives away its initial gains and resumes its decline, revisiting the $4,160 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with a mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

Ethereum holds $2,500 as open interest drops to lowest level since February

Ethereum (ETH) quickly bounced back above $2,500 on Tuesday after sharp Asian equity selloffs briefly spilled into the crypto market. South Korea's KOSPI declined 5.4% while Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.8%. The volatility spike bled into cryptocurrencies, triggering a cascade of forced liquidations.

S&P 500 earnings just hit a record. The AI data centre bill hasn't landed yet

S&P 500 companies are on track for a third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%, according to FactSet. Their profit margin hit 17% in the April-June quarter, the highest in FactSet data going back to 2009. The cash behind those earnings has been shrinking for two years, and almost all of the shrinkage is in the handful of companies building data centres for artificial intelligence (AI).

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?