Trump effect on USD, markets

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Markets adjusting to President Trump

TRUMP: Making America Volatile Again

Trump has been vocal about his plans for the economy in the run up to his inauguration, and US financial markets have basked in the pro-business change in policy that is expected once the new President takes office. However, the focus post the inauguration will be how fast policies can be implemented, and whether Trump can deliver on all of his promises.

Trump Inauguration Market Outlook

Market reverberations in the aftermath of the November election have perhaps been most pronounced in the US equity markets and the US dollar, both of which found good reasons to rally on high expectations sparked by Trump’s ambitious economic promises. At the same time, the price of gold entered into a sharp dive as stocks and the dollar rallied, but has recovered much...

Donald Trump policies impact on markets

"Trumpflation" is still thriving, but "Trumphoria" is fading away

Looking back to the market's reaction to the US election, it's difficult to find a comparable period of euphoria over the last couple of years. Seemingly every risk asset rallied, with the biggest perceived "winners" (industrial/defense/financial/small cap/high-beta/value stocks, commodities, and of course, the US dollar) exploding higher on expectations of broad tax cuts...

Tragedy and Comedy on Trump

We have elected a president who is a narcissistic, uninformed, lying, erratic buffoon. It will be very hard for serious market players to keep their heads about them when all around are losing theirs, to misquote Kipling. We already have the first instance—Trump saying the dollar is too strong—and we confidently expect the next Shock, a trade initiative against Mexico and China, probably within the first week.

Will Trump fire his first shot at China?

Risk events keep on coming this year but we can always rely on the new American President-Elect (A.P.E) to stoke the fires. This week, notably in his inauguration week, Mr Trump turned his attention to FX markets and specifically the 'overvaluation' of the dollar. In his first major foray in to this area, Mr Trump stated in an interview that ‘our currency is too strong, and it's killing...

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest...

USD/MXN: The Trump Trade

It seems like the Mexican peso will remain under pressure unless or until the irreducible uncertainty surrounding the economic and political outlook in Mexico falls. Trump has been targeting US businesses who were shifting production to the United States southern neighbour. In a recent interview, he said: “I would tell BMW that if you are building a factory in Mexico and plan to sell cars to the USA, without a 35% tax, then you can forget that ”. So it's no surprise that the Mexican peso is under pressure and continuing to make record lows against the US dollar.

USD/MXN Best Spreads

Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul billed as the ultimate outsider, aims to shake up the US political establishment, which could potentially cause extensive market volatility along the way. Going forward, Trump should have a substantial impact on various key financial markets such as US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound and other important currencies as well as stocks, commodities and bond markets.

Trump was the second major-party presidential nominee in American history whose experience comes principally from running a business (Wendell Willkie was the first). By getting elected, Trump became the first United States President without prior government or military experience, and the first without prior political experience since Dwight D. Eisenhower.

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