2024 US Presidential Elections


Biden vs Trump v2.0, history repeats itself

The 2024 US elections compendium

The 2024 U.S. election cycle has arrived, and with it have come questions about what the election will mean for the economic outlook. This compendium compiles a recent three-part series we wrote that examines the election and its economic implications from multiple angles. In Part I, we provide some background on this year's election including the outlook for control of the House of Representatives, Senate and White House.


Trump Effect on markets

Presidential election years are the pinnacle of political entertainment in the United States. There is more public interest, more press coverage, more voting and this year more polarization than in any election in a generation.

The pressumptives candidates, Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are still the two most unusual competitors since the early days of the Republic two centuries ago.

Without entering the political arena ourselves, we will look at the state of the parties and their relation to the candidates, the view from the financial markets and venture some guesses about the campaign. The 2024 elections are scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024


The 2024 US elections: Fiscal policy implications

The 2024 U.S. election will determine who is in charge of Congress and the White House come January 2025, which will have critical implications for the federal fiscal policy outlook, and by extension, the U.S. economic outlook. The debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025. Our base case is the “X date” (the date when Treasury would be unable to meet all its obligations on time) falls in the summer of 2025. However, there is a risk it falls as early as February 2025.


U.S. Congress

Americans also elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, and 35 out of 100 Senators, the upper house.

Broadly, the House approves budgets, and the Senate is responsible for nominations. Major legislation requires agreement between both chambers and the president

Democrats, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, currently control the House, with 233 seats. Representatives are voted for a two-year term.

Republicans led by Majority leader Mitch McConnell, currently command control of the Senate with 53 seats. They are defending 23 and Democrats 12 in the upcoming vote. Senators are elected for six-year terms.


New hints of election year


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