Following a long week of political turmoil, United States (US) President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he will end his reelection bid and will speak to the nation later this week in more detail about his decision.
The upcoming US presidential elections are slated for November 5th, 2024. These elections hold global significance, given the influential role of the occupant of the Oval Office in shaping international affairs. The outcome of this electoral event is eagerly anticipated, and the world is closely monitoring it.
The presumptive candidates, Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, are still the two most unusual competitors since the early days of the Republic two centuries ago.
Without delving into politics, we'll examine the status of the two parties and the candidates, focusing on the insights from the financial market.
The 2024 U.S. election cycle has arrived, and with it have come questions about what the election will mean for the economic outlook. This compendium compiles a recent three-part series we wrote that examines the election and its economic implications from multiple angles.
The 2024 U.S. elections will be a defining feature of the year as households, businesses and investors weigh the election's economic implications. So far, the presidential nomination process for the two parties has been relatively uneventful.
The FOMC continues to face a difficult economic environment. Inflation has yet to recede all the way back to the Committee's 2% target, while resilient economic growth has stoked concerns it may prove more challenging to fully rein in price growth.
The 2024 U.S. election will determine who is in charge of Congress and the White House come January 2025, which will have critical implications for the federal fiscal policy outlook, and by extension, the U.S. economic outlook. The debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025.
Historically, US election years tend to be characterized by higher volatility, as markets are attentive to policy changes and their implications for economic growth. Although markets are quite resilient to political changes in the long term, they are often more influenced by economic indicators. During Trump's presidency, the focus was on deregulation and tax cuts. Under his motto "America First", his administration aimed to protect domestic industry from Chinese imports in particular.
During Trump's presidency, the focus was on deregulation and tax cuts. Under his motto "America First", his administration aimed to protect domestic industry from Chinese imports in particular. Conversely, the Biden administration has increased public spending on reshoring semiconductor manufacturing and placed new curbs on technology exports to China. The current administration aims to revitalize the economy through investment in infrastructure, social services and investment in renewable energy.
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In an election year, any moves on the monetary policy front will carry political implications. A group of Senate Democrats led by Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown and Massachusetts ultra-liberal Elizabeth Warren are openly pressuring the Fed to ease.
The 2024 US election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
The winning candidate will begin a four-year term in the White House in January 2025 following the election.
In the United States, elections are usually defined between the two main parties, the Republican party and the Democratic party. Each nominates a presidential candidate by holding a series of state primaries and/or caucuses. There are differences between the parties, and the process varies from one state to another.
One of the biggest polling days is known as Super Tuesday, so-called because more than a dozen states hold their primary contests on that day. This year, it took place on March 5.President Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and has won enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination despite some long-shot challenges.
In the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump saw off his last remaining challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, and has won enough primary contests to propel him over the finish line to be nominated the Republican candidate. Some independent candidates are also running for president, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F. Kennedy.
Candidates compete for 538 electoral college votes, with 270 needed to win. Each state's electoral votes, based partly on population, are won by the candidate who wins the most votes there. The winner-takes-all rule applies in most states, meaning the leading candidate receives all of that state's electoral votes. Since most states lean toward one party, attention focuses on battleground states, where either candidate could win.
18-year-old or older US citizens can vote in the presidential election held every four years.
The time between elections and the inauguration in the US is called the "lame duck period." A president becomes a lame duck after a successor is elected, during which the outgoing and incoming presidents usually transition power.
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.
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