Former US president Donald Trump has been elected as the 4th president of the United States after comfortably winning the 2024 presidential election. The Republican candidate has secured more than 270 electoral votes after winning in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Republican nominee has secured 277 electoral votes. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, obtained 224 electoral votes.
As we outlined prior to the election, markets are clearly taking the view that another spell in the Oval Office for Donald Trump is a bullish development for the US dollar.
Donald Trump’s victory will ensure a lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. However, promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will increasingly become headwinds through his presidential term.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the second consecutive meeting. This is a crucial event as it will happen right after the US presidential election and it directly affects families and businesses in the United States.
Bitcoin (BTC) soared over 7% to a new all-time high of $75,407 on Wednesday as Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States, the candidate that was seen as more favorable for crypto markets due to his pro-crypto stances. Technical indicators suggest BTC could head to the next target at the $78,777-$78,955 region, with reports highlighting the growing momentum of the so-called Trump trade, which is based on long positions in the US Dollar (USD), crypto, and higher Treasury yields.
European markets are in a buoyant mood following a US election that saw Donald Trump sweep to power, casting aside any of the polling doubts that had recently emerged. Despite concerns around the potential implications for trade between the countries, we have seen widespread optimism that Trump’s pro-business stance will lift all boats. However, the one standout loser in all of this comes from the China region, with the Hang Seng falling over 2% as traders reacted to the increased chance that we will see a raft of protectionist tariffs imposed on exports into the US.
The fact that Trump did not mention tariffs or global trade in his victory speech is helping to boost risk sentiment, however, it is early days and there will be plenty of time in the future for Trump to talk about trade barriers.
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The 2024 United States presidential election concluded with the Republican candidate Donald Trump winning his second non-consecutive term, defeating the Democrat candidate Kamala Harris. Trump secured 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226. Republicans regained control of the Senate and also kept the majority in the House of Representatives.
In the United States, presidential elections are usually contested between the two main political parties: the Republican party and the Democratic party. Each party nominates a presidential candidate through a series of state primaries and/or caucuses. There are differences between the parties, a process that can differ fromstate to state.
One of the biggest polling days during this process is known as Super Tuesday, so-called by the fact that more than a dozen states hold their primary contests on that day. The results on Super Tuesday are therefore a strong indicator of the likely eventual presidential nominee of each political party.Candidates compete for 538 electoral college votes, with 270 needed to win. Each state's electoral votes, based partly on population, are won by the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. The winner-takes-all rule applies in most states, meaning the leading candidate receives all that state's electoral votes. Since most states lean toward one party, attention focuses on battleground states, where the outcome is less predictable.
US citizens aged 18 or older are eligible to vote in the presidential election, which is held every four years.
The period between the election and the inauguration is known as the "lame duck period". During this period, the outgoing president transitions power to the president-elect.
EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1600 in the second half of the day on Tuesday, even after the data from the Eurozone and Germany highlighted improving economic sentiment in August. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere as tensions in Middle East remain high, making it difficult for the pair to turn north.
GBP/USD comes under bearish pressure and declines toward 1.3500 on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data, combined with the risk-averse market atmosphere amid a re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the pair.
Gold remains depressed below the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices back the case for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.
Cryptocurrency prices are broadly correcting on Tuesday, with Bitcoin edging lower toward $64,000. Ethereum shows weakness amid ongoing narrow-range consolidation, while Ripple trades below $1.00, weighed down by falling technical indicators.
US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.
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