Forex Today: Kiwi lifted by RBNZ amid cautious optimism; eyes on OPEC+ meet, trade

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was a quiet Asian affair, as markets absorbed the latest trade deal optimism with a pinch of salt. The Asian equities traded firmer following the positive Wall Street lead. However, the US equity futures and Treasury yields traded on the back foot that kept the US dollar weaker against most majors, except for the Aussie dollar.

The AUD/USD pair dropped on dismal Australian Retail Sales and Trade data, having remained below the 0.6850 barrier almost throughout this session. The Kiwi, on the other hand, rallied beyond 0.6550 on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision on banks’ capital requirement and Governor Orr’s rates-on hold comment. Although, the spot failed to hold the upside amid a retreat in oil prices. However, the Canadian dollar was stronger despite the minor correction in the black gold, driving USD/CAD back below 1.3200 amid BOC optimism. Both crude benchmarks are treading water ahead of the key 2-day OPEC+ meeting that begins later on Thursday.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY failed to sustain above the 200-DMA barrier and fell back into the red near 108.75 region, as the yen was lifted by the hopes that the Japanese stimulus package will help boost economic growth. Amongst the European currencies, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidated the recent gains amid looming trade deal risks, favorable UK election polls and ahead of the key US NFP data due this Friday.

Main Topics in Asia

Trump administration considers 14,000 more troops for Middle East – WSJ

UK PM Johnson pledges £200 tax cut for millions within weeks of Tory victory – The Telegraph

RBNZ's final decision on banks' capital requirements supports financials & Kiwi

Aussie data dump: Retail Sales, (0% vs 0.3% exp) Trade Balance, (450M vs 6100M exp)

Japan to compile economic stimulus worth $120 billion in fiscal spending - Abe

BOJ’s Harada: Bold monetary easing clearly has helped improve economy

Indian rupee to remain on slippery slope next year – Reuters poll

Chinese Ambassador to US: China, US need to get the basics of their relations right

Indonesian Consumer Confidence improves to 124.2 in Nov, Rupiah hits five-day highs

Key Focus Ahead

When are German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD will likely face selling pressure if the data prints below estimates of 0.3% month-on-month growth. Note that the pair is already looking heavy, having created a candle with a long upper shadow on Wednesday.

GBP/USD confronts 200-week SMA amid upbeat polls, UK political plays

GBP/USD keeps range near seven-month tops of 1.3120 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair remains underpinned by the optimism surrounding the United Kingdom’s (UK) political scenario.

OPEC Meeting Preview: Do production cuts mean higher crude prices?

OPEC's current production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day expire in March 2020. Iraq has proposed an additional 400,000 barrels in reductions. Many US shale drillers have debt pressure from low crude prices.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Wednesday, Dec 04
24h	EUR Eurogroup Meeting
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment	¥-511.1B		¥-150.8B Revised from ¥-155.2B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks	¥394.0B		¥131.1B Revised from ¥131.7B
Thursday, Dec 05
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
00:30	AUD Exports	-5%		3%
00:30	AUD Imports	0%		3%
00:30	AUD Trade Balance	4,502M	6,100M	7,180M
00:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%
01:30	JPY BoJ's Harada speech
05:30	EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)	2.6%		2.7%
06:15	INR Cash Reserve Ratio		4%	4%
06:15	INR Reverse Repo Rate		4.65%	4.90%
06:15	INR RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)		4.90%	5.15%
07:00	EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)		-6.1%	-5.4%
07:00	EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)		0.3%	1.3%
07:00	RON Gross Domestic Product			3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)		-0.5%	0.8%
08:00	HUF Retail Sales (YoY)			5.8%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Qtr Final (YoY)			1.3% Revised from 2.0%
09:00	USD OPEC Meeting
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			0.409%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.447%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			-0.106%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			-0.03%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)			0.2%
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate (MoM)			16.7%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (YoY)		1%	1%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (QoQ)		0.1%	0.1%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		2.2%	3.1%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.3%	0.1%
10:30	GBP 30-y Bond Auction			1.254%
12:00	MXN Consumer Confidence			44.05
12:00	MXN Consumer Confidence s.a			43.89
12:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts			50.275K
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$542.7B
13:00	CAD BoC's Lane Speech
13:30	USD Trade Balance		$-48.7B	$-52.5B
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.65M	1.64M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		215K	213K
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average			219.75K
13:30	CAD Imports		$50.35B	$50.76B
13:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$-1.37B	$-0.98B
13:30	CAD Exports		$49.30B	$49.78B
15:00	USD Fed's Quarles speech
15:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		0.3%	-0.6%
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a		53.8	48.2
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index			51.8
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change		-60B	-28B
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.62%
18:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-5.1%
24h	EUR Independence Day
21:30	AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index			43.9
24h	EUR Spanish Constitution Day
23:30	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)		1.1%	0.5% Revised from 0.8%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		-3.0%	9.5%
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves			$1,324.5B
Friday, Dec 06
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.17%	0.16%
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.91%	3.86%
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index		92.0	91.9
05:00	JPY Coincident Index		101.5	101.1
06:00	ZAR Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve			$54.529B
06:00	ZAR Net $Gold & Forex Reserve			$44.606B
07:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		0.1%	-0.6%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)		-2.8%	-4.3%
07:00	DKK Industrial Production (MoM)			1.5%
07:00	NOK Manufacturing Output		0.1%	0.8%
07:45	EUR Trade Balance EUR		€-4.80B	€-5.55B
07:45	EUR Imports, EUR			€47.28B
07:45	EUR Exports, EUR			€41.73B
07:45	EUR Current Account			€-2.7B
08:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM)			-0.4%
08:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY)			-2.8%
08:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)			11.1%
08:00	CZK Retail Sales (YoY)		3.8%	7.3%
08:00	CHF Foreign Currency Reserves			779B
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)		1.0%	0.9%
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)		-0.7%	-0.1%
08:30	SEK Industrial Production (YoY)			0.9%
08:30	SEK Industrial Production (MoM)			-0.2%
08:30	SEK New Orders Manufacturing (YoY)			-1.5%
09:00	USD OPEC Meeting
09:00	EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		-0.4%	0.7%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)		1.0%	0.9%
10:00	CLP Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)		0.6%	0.8%
10:00	CLP Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)			0.6%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			8.1%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$448.6B
12:00	BRL IPCA Inflation		0.09%	0.10%
13:00	PLN Central Bank FX Reserves			€109.1B
13:00	RUB Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.1%
13:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		180K	128K
13:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.4	34.4
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)		3%	3%
13:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate		63.3%	63.3%
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.3%	0.2%
13:30	USD U6 Underemployment Rate			7%
13:30	USD Unemployment Rate		3.6%	3.6%
13:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		10.0K	-1.8K
13:30	CAD Average Hourly Wages (YoY)			4.36%
13:30	CAD Participation Rate		65.7%	65.7%
13:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		5.5%	5.5%
14:30	TRY Treasury Cash Balance			-11.89B
15:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		96.5	96.8
15:00	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.2%	0.2%
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			668
20:00	USD Consumer Credit Change		$16.00B	$9.51B
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$-16.8K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			470.9K
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$271.6K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-36.6K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-39.6K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-61.4K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-45.4K

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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