Forex Today: Kiwi lifted by RBNZ amid cautious optimism; eyes on OPEC+ meet, trade


Forex today was a quiet Asian affair, as markets absorbed the latest trade deal optimism with a pinch of salt. The Asian equities traded firmer following the positive Wall Street lead. However, the US equity futures and Treasury yields traded on the back foot that kept the US dollar weaker against most majors, except for the Aussie dollar.

The AUD/USD pair dropped on dismal Australian Retail Sales and Trade data, having remained below the 0.6850 barrier almost throughout this session. The Kiwi, on the other hand, rallied beyond 0.6550 on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision on banks’ capital requirement and Governor Orr’s rates-on hold comment.  Although, the spot failed to hold the upside amid a retreat in oil prices. However, the Canadian dollar was stronger despite the minor correction in the black gold, driving USD/CAD back below 1.3200 amid BOC optimism. Both crude benchmarks are treading water ahead of the key 2-day OPEC+ meeting that begins later on Thursday.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY failed to sustain above the 200-DMA barrier and fell back into the red near 108.75 region, as the yen was lifted by the hopes that the Japanese stimulus package will help boost economic growth. Amongst the European currencies, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidated the recent gains amid looming trade deal risks, favorable UK election polls and ahead of the key US NFP data due this Friday.  

Main Topics in Asia

Trump administration considers 14,000 more troops for Middle East – WSJ

UK PM Johnson pledges £200 tax cut for millions within weeks of Tory victory – The Telegraph

RBNZ's final decision on banks' capital requirements supports financials & Kiwi

Aussie data dump: Retail Sales, (0% vs 0.3% exp) Trade Balance, (450M vs 6100M exp)

Japan to compile economic stimulus worth $120 billion in fiscal spending - Abe

BOJ’s Harada: Bold monetary easing clearly has helped improve economy

Indian rupee to remain on slippery slope next year – Reuters poll

Chinese Ambassador to US: China, US need to get the basics of their relations right

Indonesian Consumer Confidence improves to 124.2 in Nov, Rupiah hits five-day highs

Key Focus Ahead

When are German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD will likely face selling pressure if the data prints below estimates of 0.3% month-on-month growth. Note that the pair is already looking heavy, having created a candle with a long upper shadow on Wednesday. 

GBP/USD confronts 200-week SMA amid upbeat polls, UK political plays

GBP/USD keeps range near seven-month tops of 1.3120 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair remains underpinned by the optimism surrounding the United Kingdom’s (UK) political scenario.

OPEC Meeting Preview: Do production cuts mean higher crude prices?

OPEC's current production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day expire in March 2020. Iraq has proposed an additional 400,000 barrels in reductions. Many US shale drillers have debt pressure from low crude prices.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Wednesday, Dec 04
24h
 
 
23:50
¥-511.1B
 
¥-150.8B Revised from ¥-155.2B
23:50
¥394.0B
 
¥131.1B Revised from ¥131.7B
Thursday, Dec 05
24h
 
 
00:30
-5%
 
3%
00:30
0%
 
3%
00:30
4,502M
6,100M
7,180M
00:30
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
01:30
 
 
05:30
2.6%
 
2.7%
06:15
 
4%
4%
06:15
 
4.65%
4.90%
06:15
 
4.90%
5.15%
07:00
 
-6.1%
-5.4%
07:00
 
0.3%
1.3%
07:00
 
 
3%
08:00
 
-0.5%
0.8%
08:00
 
 
5.8%
08:00
 
 
1.3% Revised from 2.0%
09:00
 
 
n/a
 
 
0.409%
n/a
 
 
-0.447%
n/a
 
 
-0.106%
n/a
 
 
-0.03%
10:00
 
 
0.2%
10:00
 
 
16.7%
10:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
10:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
10:00
 
1%
1%
10:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
10:00
 
2.2%
3.1%
10:00
 
-0.3%
0.1%
10:30
 
 
1.254%
12:00
 
 
44.05
12:00
 
 
43.89
12:30
 
 
50.275K
13:00
 
 
$542.7B
13:00
 
 
13:30
 
$-48.7B
$-52.5B
13:30
 
1.65M
1.64M
13:30
 
215K
213K
13:30
 
 
219.75K
13:30
 
$50.35B
$50.76B
13:30
 
$-1.37B
$-0.98B
13:30
 
$49.30B
$49.78B
15:00
 
 
15:00
 
0.3%
-0.6%
15:00
 
53.8
48.2
15:00
 
 
51.8
15:30
 
-60B
-28B
16:30
 
 
1.62%
18:00
 
 
-5.1%
24h
 
 
21:30
 
 
43.9
24h
 
 
23:30
 
1.1%
0.5% Revised from 0.8%
23:30
 
-3.0%
9.5%
23:50
 
 
$1,324.5B
Friday, Dec 06
00:00
 
0.17%
0.16%
00:00
 
3.91%
3.86%
05:00
 
92.0
91.9
05:00
 
101.5
101.1
06:00
 
 
$54.529B
06:00
 
 
$44.606B
07:00
 
0.1%
-0.6%
07:00
 
-2.8%
-4.3%
07:00
 
 
1.5%
07:00
 
0.1%
0.8%
07:45
 
€-4.80B
€-5.55B
07:45
 
 
€47.28B
07:45
 
 
€41.73B
07:45
 
 
€-2.7B
08:00
 
 
-0.4%
08:00
 
 
-2.8%
08:00
 
 
11.1%
08:00
 
3.8%
7.3%
08:00
 
 
779B
08:30
 
1.0%
0.9%
08:30
 
-0.7%
-0.1%
08:30
 
 
0.9%
08:30
 
 
-0.2%
08:30
 
 
-1.5%
09:00
 
 
09:00
 
-0.4%
0.7%
09:00
 
1.0%
0.9%
10:00
 
0.6%
0.8%
10:00
 
 
0.6%
11:30
 
 
8.1%
11:30
 
 
$448.6B
12:00
 
0.09%
0.10%
13:00
 
 
€109.1B
13:00
 
0.4%
0.1%
13:30
 
180K
128K
13:30
 
34.4
34.4
13:30
 
3%
3%
13:30
 
63.3%
63.3%
13:30
 
0.3%
0.2%
13:30
 
 
7%
13:30
 
3.6%
3.6%
13:30
 
10.0K
-1.8K
13:30
 
 
4.36%
13:30
 
65.7%
65.7%
13:30
 
5.5%
5.5%
14:30
 
 
-11.89B
15:00
 
96.5
96.8
15:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
18:00
 
 
668
20:00
 
$16.00B
$9.51B
20:30
 
 
$-16.8K
20:30
 
 
470.9K
20:30
 
 
$271.6K
20:30
 
 
£-36.6K
20:30
 
 
¥-39.6K
20:30
 
 
€-61.4K
20:30
 
 
$-45.4K

 

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