EUR/USD Forecast: currencies' war reaches new frontier

The EUR/USD pair remained within its latest range for one more week, rallying up to 1.0967, where the weekly descendant trend line capped once again the upside. Also, the pair erased most of its weekly gains on Friday, in spite of weaker-than-expected US Advanced Q4 GDP figures. Consensus was of a 0.8% growth against the finally informed 0.7%, but given the comments on weaker growth made within the FOMC latest statement, seems the market was pricing in an even weaker number. 

Anyway, the dollar also got a nice boost from the BOJ, as the Japanese Central Bank decided to cut rates into negative territory during its Friday's meeting, leaving the main benchmark at -0.1%. This week we also knew that inflation ticked slightly higher in the EU and Germany, but still remains subdue. At least, things are starting to look better in that front. Also, the FED had its meeting last Wednesday, and decided to leave rates unchanged, as largely expected. The statement was dovish, but not that dovish, offering a mixed outcome that left investors clueless on what's next. Still, four rate hikes this year remain on the table. 

As January comes to an end, the EUR/USD has had little to offer, and will likely remain that way. There are little chances that the US Payroll next Friday can break the range, as employment has been not a major concern lately, and therefore market is paying less attention. Still, strong divergences from expectations in the job's data, can set the tone for the dollar for the rest of the week. 

Oil has had a major role this month, and will likely continue to be among the market leaders during the upcoming days, which means deciding trades in the EUR/USD pair can't be done without taking a look on what the commodity is doing. 

View the Live chart of the EUR/USD

Technically, the weekly chart shows that the pair is ending the week around the 38.2% retracement of its December rally, while the 20 SMA converges with the mentioned trend line, reinforcing the strength of the static resistance. In the same chart, the technical indicators remain within bearish territory, all of which should continue to keep the upside limited. In the daily chart,  the bearish tone prevails as the price is now heading lower below a horizontal 20 SMA while the technical indicators turned south around their mid-lines. 

With no clear directional momentum, the base of the range stands at 1.0780/1.0800 and it will take a break below 1.0770, post ECB low, to confirm a downward continuation towards 1.0710, the 61.8% retracement of the afore mentioned rally, followed later by the 1.0620 region. The top of the range comes at 1.0930/60, and more selling interest is expected around 1.0000, which means only a clear break of December high of 1.1059 can lead to a more bullish outlook, and an upward continuation towards 1.1120.
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