Almost one year ago, we labeled 2023 as ‘a year of transition to what?’ based on the view that inflation would decline, that official interest rates would reach their peak and a concern that the disinflation process could be bumpy. 2023 has brought us many surprises: the resilience of the labour market in the US and the Eurozone, the extent of monetary tightening, the risk appetite of investors. The biggest surprise was the growth performance of the US economy. Towards the end of the year, the changing message from the Federal Reserve -and to a lesser degree of certain ECB governing council members- with respect to the monetary policy outlook has brought us a another favourable surprise and a hopeful note for 2024.
As the year draws to a close, the time has come to look back and ahead. We will do the latter in our first issue of 2024 and focus in this editorial on 2023. Almost one year ago, we labeled 2023 as ‘a year of transition to what?’. The word transition referred to our belief that inflation would decline and that official interest rates would reach their peak. Subdued growth -we expected that the US and the Eurozone would spend part of the year in recession-, would pave the way for more disinflation, gradual rate cuts and a soft recovery in 2024. The reference to ‘transition to what?’ expressed the view that the journey could be bumpy due to a new, significant and lasting increase in the price of gas, a slower than expected decline in inflation or an impact of past rate hikes that would be bigger than anticipated.
Comparing forecasts with reality can be a sobering exercise and for some variables this was clearly the case in 2023, as illustrated in table 1. The column ‘December 2022’ refers to projections for 2023 published in December 2022. The column ‘December 2023’ refers to the estimates for 2023 published this month. For growth and inflation, the data show annual averages except for the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, which show percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Interest rate forecasts are for the end of the calendar year.
BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0850 ahead of Fedspeak
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades in negative territory slightly below 1.0850 after closing modestly lower on Thursday. In the absence of macroeconomic data releases, investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials.
GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure near 1.2650
GBP/USD edges lower toward 1.2650 after posting marginal losses on Thursday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the selloff seen after April inflation data and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction. Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak later in the day.
Gold holds steady above $2,380, Fed speakers in focus
Gold trades with a positive bias on Friday and holds above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays flat near 4.4% following Thursday's rebound, allowing XAU/USD to keep its footing ahead of speeches from Fed officials.
XRP steadies at $0.51 as Ripple plans to expand XRP Ledger, custody services in Africa
Ripple hovers close to $0.51 on Friday, above the psychologically important $0.50 level, as traders await the court ruling of the lawsuit against the US SEC and amid new commitments from the firm to expand its services in Africa.
Disputes and De-risking: US-China trade dispute changes trade flows
The bilateral trade dispute between the US and China is entering a new round and is leading to renewed discussions about the deglobalisation of global trade in goods.