Notes/observations

- China continues support for housing with an adjustment of interest rates for commercial housing loans and cut to mortgage floor rates. Later on in a PBOC housing meeting, provided details of several measures to help prop up the market. Announcement buoyed housing stocks in China.

- French unemployment was in line. Euro Zone Apr Final CPI was unrevised at 2.4% YoY and 2.7% for core (ECB target is 2%).

- Focus is on speaker schedule, with Fed’s Waller, Kashkari and Daly to speak. CME futures are pricing 9% chance of cut at next meeting on June 12th and about 65% chance for a cut by Sept’s meeting.

- Norway market is closed today, ahead of several European closures on Monday.

- Reminder Dow Jones (DJIA) hit 40,000 for the first time yesterday, but failed to close above; Oil edges higher on back of more positive inflation data and Fed rate cut expectations, copper consolidates recent gains at 4.937 +1.2%.

- Asia closed mixed with Shanghai outperforming +1.0%. EU indices are -0.4% to +0.7%. US futures are -0.1%. Gold +0.4%, DXY +0.3%; Commodity: Brent +0.1%, WTI 0.0%; Crypto: BTC -0.2%, ETH +0.6%.

Asia

- China Apr New Home Prices M/M: -0.6% v -0.3% prior.

- China Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.7% v 5.5%e.

- China Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.7%e.

- China Apr YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.6%e.

- China Apr YTD Property Investment Y/Y: -9.8% v -9.6%e.

- China Apr Surveyed Jobless Rate: 5.0% v 5.2% prior.

- New Zealand Q1 PPI Input Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.9% prior; PPI Output Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7% prior.

- South Korea Apr Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8% prior.

- BOJ Gov Ueda reiterated that no immediate plans to sell BOJ ETF holdings.

- China's Vice Premier He Lifeng: Local govts can purchase some homes for affordable housing at reasonable prices; China must effectively ensure delivery of.

- China PBoC adjust interest rates for commercial housing loans; scraps nationwide interest rate floor for 1st and 2nd homes.

Global conflict/tensions

- North Korea fired multiple short-range missiles off its eastern coastal town of Wonsan on Friday.

Europe

- ECB's Schnabel (Germany, hawk) said to be open to a June rate cut, but urged caution thereafter. Path beyond June was much more uncertain.

- Upcoming G7 Finance Ministers meeting in Italy said to back a EU plan to use the income from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine's war effort. G7 looking to revive an international agreement on how to share taxing rights on large corporations.

Americas

- Fed’s Bostic (hawk, voter) stated that was pleased with inflation progress but more work needed to be done. Watching May, June inflation to make sure it did not revert.

- Fed's Mester (voter) stated that would take longer to gain confidence that inflation was moving to 2% target; Prudent to keep rates on hold for longer.

- US Sec Defense Austin to meet with China counterpart in Singapore later this month (**Note: Would be the 1st in person meeting in two years).

Speakers/fixed income/fx/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.40% at 521.40, FTSE -0.36% at 8,408.36, DAX -0.41% at 18,649.40, CAC-40 -0.53% at 8,144.96, IBEX-35 +0.19% at 11,320.50, FTSE MIB -0.05% at 35,394.00, SMI +0.56% at 12,013.70, S&P 500 Futures -0.10%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open generally slightly lower and remained sluggish through the early trading hours; Norway closed for holiday; among better performing sectors are energy and telecom; sectors tending to the downside include consumer discretionary and technology; luxury subsectors supported following improved earnings from Richemont; GSK completes divestment of Halion stake; International Distribution Systems’ postal workers union issues strike notice following improved takeover offer from EP Group; Novartis reaches threshold to acquire Morphosys; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Hunt [CFR.CH] +5.5% (earnings; China retail sales data), International Distributions Services [IDS.UK] +0.5% (Postal Worker's Union issues strike notice warning to Czech billionaire Kretinsky).

- Consumer staples: Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] +0.5% (signs AI tools deal with Microsoft), Unilever [UNA.NL] +0.5% (first tranche of share buyback program).

- Financials: HSBC [HSBC.UK] -0.5% (Ping An considering selling additional shares of HSBC as it seeks to trim its $13B stake), Land Securities Group [LAND.UK] -2.0% (FY earnings), Scor [SCR.FR] -8.5% (Q1 results).

- Healthcare: Bayer [BAYN.DE] +0.5% (trial data), Haleon [HLN.UK] -0.5% (GSK sells Haleon shares - post close).

- Utilities: Engie [ENGI.FR] -2.0% (earnings) - Materials: BHP Group [BHP.UK] +1.0% (China cuts interest rates for housing loans and allow govt to purchase unsold homes), Lanxess [LXS.DE] -4.5% (analyst downgrade).

Speakers

- ECB's Holzmann (Austria, hawk) commented that inflation must be on path to target before rate cuts. Moving too early risked refueling inflation.

- ECB’s de Guindos (Spain, voter) stated tat inflation was seen moving towards target in 2025.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Thedeen commented that inflation was close to target; Reiterated could cut rates two more times in H2 if outlook held.

- Eurogroup Chief Donohoe (Ireland) stated that the ECB's approach was the correct one.

- UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Hunt commented that would cut NI payroll tax in autumn if able to.

- China Housing Vice Minister Dong noted it would promote the alleviation of difficulties and debt reduction of real estate enterprises. Would deal with issue of land that was not being built on. Land could be bought back or returned to the market. Banks should lend to property projects on whitelist.

- PBOC Dep Gov Tao Ling stated that would set up CNY300B in relending scheme for cheap housing which would drive CNY500B in related finance. Encouraged local govt to buy unsold homes via SOEs.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD continued to consolidate after earlier losses in the week. EU session on Friday was quiet but dealers awaited the next key data releases next week. Fed speak remained cautious in reading too much into any specific data release. Fe likely would need a couple of weaker rounds of key data before flashing the green light for interest-rate cuts

- EUR/USD at 1.0840 as ECB members remained cautious on additional rate cut hopes after the likely Jun cut.

- USD/JPY drifting back towards the 156 neighborhood as markets continued to probe the Japanese govt rhetoric on FX thresholds.

Economic data

- (FR) France Q1 ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.3%e.

- (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e May 10th: $644.2B v $641.6B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Q1 Industrial Output Y/Y: -3.1% v -0.5% prior; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: -3.3% v -0.6% prior.

- (AT) Austria Apr Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5% prelim.

- (TR) Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) May Inflation Expectations Survey: Next 12-months: 33.2% v 35.2% prior.

- (TH) Thailand May Foreign Reserves w/e May 10th: $224.1B v $223.5B prior.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 10th (RUB): 18.32T v 18.25T prior.

- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 2.3% v 2.3% advance; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7% advance.

- 04:30 (PT) Portugal Mar Current Account Balance: €B v €0.1B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Final CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4% advance; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7% advance; CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% advance.

- (CY) Cyprus Apr CPI Harmonized M/M: 1.4% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR310B vs. INR310B indicated in 2034 and 2064 bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.0B in I/L 2038, 2043 and 2050 Bonds.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £6.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £2.0B and £3.5B respectively).

- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2027 RIKB Bonds.

- 07:30 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:20 (EU) ECB’s Vasle (Slovenia).

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v -8.8B prior.

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey.

- 10:00 (US) Apr Leading Index: -0.3%e v -0.3% prior.

- 10:15 (US) Fed's Waller with member Kashkari.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Apr CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.8%e v 7.7% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Apr CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.8% prior.

- 12:15 (US) Fed's Daly.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6600 amid weak UoM Consumer Sentiment data

AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6600 amid weak UoM Consumer Sentiment data

The AUD/USD pair snaps the two-day losing streak near 0.6615 amid the consolidation of the US Dollar in Monday’s early Asian session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index hovers around near 105.50 after retracing from its highest level since early May near 105.80.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD: Central banks’ decisions will keep taking their toll

EUR/USD: Central banks’ decisions will keep taking their toll

The EUR/USD pair slid below the 1.0700 mark for the first time in over a month on Friday, as the US Dollar surged on the back of risk aversion. The dismal mood prevailed throughout the week, with a short-lived exception on Wednesday when softer-than-anticipated United States inflation brought a breath of fresh air.

EUR/USD News

Gold attracts some sellers below $2,350, eyes on Eurozone political concerns

Gold attracts some sellers below $2,350, eyes on Eurozone political concerns

Gold price trades on a softer note near $2,325 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The speculation that US interest rates will stay higher for longer, with the median projection from Federal Reserve officials calling for one interest rate cut this year, has lifted the Greenback broadly.

Gold News

Bitcoin active addresses hit lowest level in five years, BTC ranges below $67,000

Bitcoin active addresses hit lowest level in five years, BTC ranges below $67,000

Bitcoin, the largest asset by market capitalization, has noted a decline in its active address count per data from Glassnode. A decline in active addresses is typical at a time during a surge in Bitcoin transaction fees.

Read more

Week ahead: RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

Week ahead: RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE. Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States. Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures