NZD/USD Price Forecast: Plunges below 0.6100 on RBNZ 50 bps rate cut

NZD/USD plummets below 0.6100 as the RBNZ reduced its OCR further by 50 bps to 4.75%.
The RBNZ was expected to deliver a hefty rate cut amid weak growth prospects.
Investors await the FOMC minutes for fresh cues on the interest rate outlook.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair faces an intense sell-off and slides below the round-level support of 0.6100 in Wednesday’s North American session. The Kiwi pair plunges as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%.

The RBNZ was expected to deliver a larger-than-usual interest rate cut due to softening labor market conditions and subdued growth. Market participants expect the RBNZ to reduce interest rates at a similar pace again in November.

Meanwhile, dismal market sentiment due to Middle East risks has also dampened the appeal of risk-sensitive assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs to near 102.70.

The US Dollar strengthens as traders have priced out the scenario of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates again by 50 bps in November. The Fed started the policy-easing cycle with a sizeable cut of 50 bps in September. Meanwhile, investors await Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the September meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.

NZD/USD weakens after breaking below the horizontal support plotted from the September 11 low of 0.6100 on a daily timeframe. The overall trend of the Kiwi pair has become bearish as it has formed a lower swing low. The asset is also trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.6173.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a bearish momentum has been triggered.

More downside is highly likely towards the psychological support of 0.6000 and the August 15 low of 0.5974.

On the flip side, a reversal move above the October 8 high of 0.6146 will drive the asset towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6173 and the October 4 high near 0.6220.

NZD/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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