Forex Today: Markets await US NFP, Fed Chair’s speech for fresh impulse

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Forex moves remain sidelined during Friday’s Asian session with traders awaiting key US employment data. Though, optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations remains on the card while the US President Donald Trump again pushed the Fed for a rate cut. Elsewhere, Firth cut Hong Kong’s credit rating whereas the US-Iran tussle continues with the White House confirming no U-turn from “maximum pressure” policy to France.

While EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY registered fewer moves, NZD/USD was the winner of the Asian session with the USD/CHF pair standing on the other side. WTI benefited from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran while but Gold struggles to justify recently cautious momentum. Global bond yields are on the sidelines with the 10-year US counterpart marking 1.57% by the press time of pre-European session.

Moving on, German Industrial Production and Eurozone GDP will be in the traders’ radar ahead of focusing on much bigger issues concerning the US and Canadian employment data and speech from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Main Topics in Asia

BoJ's Kuroda: Considering a variety of additional easing possibilities

Fitch downgrades Hong Kong to 'AA' from 'AA+

US Pres. Trump: If the Fed would lower rates then I really wouldn’t worry about a recession

White House: US Pres. Trump tells French Pres. Macron that Iran sanctions will not be dropped now

China’s Official: US tariffs on Chinese goods "bullying" – Australian Press

G10 currencies to take cues from US-China trade war, Fed song - Reuters poll

Iran takes further step to decrease nuclear commitments – Reuters

Labour plot to trap UK PM Johnson by delaying general election until November – Telegraph

Key Focus Ahead

Germany’s Industrial Production numbers gain the immediate attention of markets as the July month seasonally adjusted MoM reading expects to deviate from latest downbeat performance of German data. After that, investors will move on to the second quarter (Q2) seasonally-adjusted GDP, which isn't expected to change from 0.2% QoQ and 1.1% YoY. Furthermore, Canada’s employment data for August are less likely to renew optimism surrounding the Canadian Dollar (CAD) considering the latest dovish comments from the Bank of Canada’s policymaker.

With this, the US jobs report for August and the Fed Chair’s speech in Zurich undoubtedly become the key events of the day. Even if the forecast suggests a pullback in the headline NFP number, Thursday’s ADP data have raised questions on the outlook and any upside surprise will be well received considering the recent U-turn of the greenback.

When is the German Industrial Production and how could it affect EUR/USD?

A drop in the German Industrial Production will likely exacerbate recession fears, possibly triggering a sell-off in the common currency. The EUR/USD pair is already on the defensive, having created a Doji candle on Thursday.

GBP/USD logs three-day winning streak on Brexit-positive headlines ahead of US NFP

With the receding chances of no-deal Brexit, the GBP/USD pair stays firm around 1.2330 after witnessing three consecutive positive daily closings ahead of Friday’s UK session open. Investors now await Brexit headlines, US jobs report for fresh direction.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Friday, Sep 06
06:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)		-5.2%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	0.3%	-1.5%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)	0.2%	-0.2%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)	3.4%	4.1%
08:30	GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations		3.1%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)	0.2%	0.2%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)	1.1%	1.1%
09:00	EUR Employment Change (YoY)	1.1%	1.1%
09:00	EUR Employment Change (QoQ)	0.2%	0.2%
09:15	EUR ECB's De Guindos speech
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls	158K	164K
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.3
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	3.1%	3.2%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate	3.7%	3.7%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate		63%
16:30	USD Fed's Chair Powell speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count		742
Monday, Sep 09
06:00	EUR Exports (MoM)		-0.1%
06:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€18.1B
06:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a.		€20.6B
06:00	EUR Imports (MoM)		0.5%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)	-1.1%	-1.4%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.2%	-0.6%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)		0.1%
08:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU		£-0.186B
08:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance	£-11.800B	£-7.009B
08:30	GBP Total Trade Balance		£1.779B
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0%
08:30	EUR Sentix Investor Confidence	-8.3	-13.7
n/a	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)		-0.1%
n/a	GBP UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit
19:00	USD Consumer Credit Change	$16.0B	$14.6B
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions		$296.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions		391.6K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions		$68.5K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions		£-89K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions		€-38.8K
Tuesday, Sep 10
08:30	GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		3.9%
08:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)		3.9%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		3.7%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate		3.2%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Change		28K
10:00	USD NFIB Business Optimism Index		104.7
12:55	USD Redbook Index (MoM)		-1%
12:55	USD Redbook Index (YoY)		6.5%
14:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings		7.348M
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock		0.401M

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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