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Forex Today: Kiwi plunges in Asia, German CPI, US Core PCE in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

A quiet Asian affair today, with the only Japanese retail sales data released, which helped support the Yen against its American counterpart. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained largely subdued in tandem with Treasury yields, with the speculation rife that Jerome Powell will be appointed the next Fed Chair by Trump.

The Kiwi emerged the weakest and dropped sharply to test 5-month lows at 0.6818, following weekend’s comments by the new NZ FinMin Robertson, stating that RBNZ reforms could potentially lower rates. Its OZ counterpart, the Aussie, on the other hand, defended minor bids amid a lack of fresh catalysts.

Among other related markets, gold and oil prices traded with modest gains, while the Asian equities traded mixed, with the Nikkei consolidating last week’s rally.

Main topics in Asia

Japan retail sales rise for 11th straight month

Japanese retail sales rose for 11th straight month in September, contradicting the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) last policy statement, which said that the growth in domestic demand would "likely remain moderate."

New NZ FinMin Robertson: RBNZ reform could potentially lower rates

Reuters reports the comments from Grant Robertson, New Zealand’s new finance minister speaking in an interview TV on Sunday.

UK-German 2-year bond yield spread hits 10-year high

The two-year UK-German bond yield spread rose to 122.7 basis points on Friday; its highest level since August 31, 2007.

Trump likely to pick Powell as the next Fed President - WSJ

A report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says President Trump is likely to announce Jerome Powell as a Yellen's successor at the Fed.

South Korea and China nuclear envoys to hold meeting tomorrow – Yonhap

South Korea’s media agency, Yonhap, reports the latest headlines citing that the South Korean and Chinese ambassadors for nuclear affairs are likely to hold a meeting tomorrow.

Bitcoin refreshes record high above $ 6300, up 500% on the year

Bitcoin, the world largest cryptocurrency rallied hard over the weekend to hit a new all-time high above $ 6000 mark, after having reached the previous record high at $ 6183 earlier this month.

Key Focus ahead

Stepping into a new week, the markets remain poised for a plenty of risk events from across the globe, with the FOMC and BOE interest rates decision highly anticipated ones. Also, the Eurozone CPI figures, Chinese manufacturing and services PMI reports, trade and retail sales data from Australia. Meanwhile, Trump’s decision on the next Fed Chair and the US NFP report will hold the key for the next direction on the buck.

For today, the EUR calendar remains full, with the German retail sales and CPI figures, as also with the Eurozone consumer confidence and economic sentiment figures. Meanwhile, the UK docket offers the only net lending to individuals data. Also, of note will be the ECB-speaks, as Hanson and Costa are due to speak later on the day.

Moving on, the NA session has macro news only out of the US, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, personal spending, and income data to keep the US traders busy.

EUR/USD: Eyes on inflation differential ahead of a Big week

The EUR/USD pair kept its recovery mode intact in Asia, although failed to regain the key support-turned-resistance located near 1.1620 levels, as markets remain cautious stepping into a Big week ahead.

GBP/USD - 2Y US-UK spread remains elevated ahead of the BOE, focus on EUR/GBP

GBP/USD trimmed losses on Friday, largely on the back of the Catalan-led sell-off in the EUR/GBP. Cable strengthened moderately to 1.3140 levels in the Asian session today.

The Week Ahead: Key Central Banks and US Jobs Data in Focus

The week ahead will be an exceptionally busy one in terms of key macroeconomic events and data releases.

BOJ likely to remain on-hold tomorrow – BBG Survey

Bloomberg published its latest survey of economists on Monday, predicting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep its monetary policy settings unadjusted when it concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

China factory growth seen easing slightly in October - RTRS poll

Results of the latest Reuters poll showed on Monday that a majority of the economists surveyed see the Chinese manufacturing activity slowing down this month, in response to the Govt’s crackdown on air pollution.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Oct 29
24h	TRY Republic Day
24h	GBP Daylight Saving Time Ends
24h	EUR Daylight Saving Time Ends
24h	CHF Daylight Saving Time Ends
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%	1.8% Revised from 1.7%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)	0.8%		-1.7%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales	1.9%		0.6%
Monday, Oct 30
24h	EUR October Holiday (Halloween)
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit			5.98%
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			6.48%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		3.5%	3.0% Revised from 2.8%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%	-0.4%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			102.8
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
07:00	NOK Retail Sales			-0.6%
08:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			0
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.8%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)		0.8%	0.9%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY)		3.2%	3.1%
08:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator			105.8
09:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			59.4
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.19%
09:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.500B	£1.583B
09:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		66.00K	66.58K
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			4.4%
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			0.9%
09:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			1.5
09:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.1
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.1%
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		7.0	6.6
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		113.4	113.0
10:00	EUR Business Climate			1.34
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1	-1
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		15.0	15.3
11:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			0.47%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.01%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
12:00	CLP Unemployment rate			6.6%
12:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)		-1.5%	1.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)			1.3%
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.7%	0.1%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.4%	0.2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.8%
13:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.7%	1.8%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
13:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.1%	0.0%
13:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.4%
14:30	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index			21.3
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.105%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.245%
18:00	USD Loan Officer Survey
21:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			-13.89B
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI			79
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			10.2%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)			2.7%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth			0.4%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.1%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio		1.53	1.52
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		2.8%	2.8%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		0.7%	0.6%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-1.5%	2.0%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			5.3%
Tuesday, Oct 31
24h	EUR Day of Reformation
24h	CLP Evangelical Churches Day
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			29.6%
00:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			0
00:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			9.1%
00:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-10	-9
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			5.5%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.5%
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			55.4
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		52.0	52.4
02:00	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision		-0.1%	-0.1%
03:00	JPY BoJ outlook report
03:50	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-3.6%	-2.0%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-10.6%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.942M
06:30	JPY BoJ Press Conference
06:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-5.87B
07:00	NOK Credit Indicator			5.6%
07:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)			-0.3%
08:00	EUR Unemployment		11.1%	11.2%
08:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			46.35%
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€2.98B
08:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.4%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.3%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.8%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.3%	1.3%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.2%	1.8%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,250.45B
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		2.4%	2.3%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.5%	0.6%
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate		9.0%	9.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.2%	1.3%
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
12:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			12.6%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			5.94B
12:30	USD Employment cost index		0.6%	0.5%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index			1%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)			0%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.3%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			3.5%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)			5.8%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		60.0	65.2
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.005%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			5.1%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			0.519M
21:45	NZD Unemployment Rate			4.8%
21:45	NZD Employment Change			-0.2%
21:45	NZD Participation Rate			70%
21:45	NZD Labour cost index (QoQ)			0.4%
21:45	NZD Labour cost index (YoY)			1.6%
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			54.2
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)			2.1%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth			0.1%
Wednesday, Nov 01
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	BRL All Saints Day
24h	CLP All Saints Day
24h	PLN All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$13.6B
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	HUF All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
00:01	GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)			-0.1%
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			50.6
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.5
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI		51	51
05:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			18.3%
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			51.9
06:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			63.7
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)			2%
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			7.5%
07:00	EUR Unemployment			302.8K
07:30	CZK Markit PMI			56.6
08:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index			61.7
09:00	TRY Exports			$11.34B
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			52.8
09:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.1	55.9
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-4.6%
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		225K	135K
14:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		59.0	60.8
14:00	USD ISM Prices Paid			71.5
14:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.1%	0.5%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			0.856M
14:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			55
14:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.5
18:00	USD Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
18:00	USD Fed Interest Rate Decision		1.25%	1.25%
18:00	BRL Trade Balance			5.18B
n/a	USD Total Vehicle Sales		17.39M	18.57M
21:00	KRW FX Reserves
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)			15.6%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥10.9B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥686B
Thursday, Nov 02
24h	BRL All Souls Day
00:30	AUD Exports			1%
00:30	AUD Imports			0%
00:30	AUD Trade Balance			989M
01:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)			0.4%
01:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)			-15.5%
05:00	PEN Inflation			-0.02%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index			43.9
06:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)			-3
07:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			53.7
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€440M
08:00	EUR Unemployment Change
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		55.0	54.3
08:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.2%
08:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.8	56.3
08:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.7
08:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		60.5	60.5
09:00	EUR Unemployment Change		-11K	-23K
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.6%	5.6%
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		58.6	58.6
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.88%
09:30	GBP PMI Construction		48.0	48.1
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)			32.346K
12:00	GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision		0.50%	0.25%
12:00	GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility		£435B	£435B
12:00	GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00	GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged		3	7
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut		0	0
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike		6	2
12:00	GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.893M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			233K
12:30	USD Unit Labor Costs		0.4%	0.2%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Productivity		2.0%	1.5%
12:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
13:00	DKK Currency Reserves			464.3B
13:00	SGD Purchasing Managers Index			52
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$425.6B
13:45	USD ISM NY index - Business Conditions			49.7
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			64B
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			224.066B
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Services Index			52.1
23:00	KRW Current Account Balance			6.27B
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves			$1,266.3B
Friday, Nov 03
24h	JPY Culture Day
00:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)			-0.6%
01:45	CNY Caixin China Services PMI			50.6
06:00	RUB Purchasing Manager Index Services			55.2
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (YoY)			16.28%
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.24%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.65%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			11.2%
08:00	BRL Fipe's IPC Inflation			0.02%
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.5%
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			91.38K
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)			4%
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)			0.8%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			2.7%
09:30	GBP Markit Services PMI		53.3	53.6
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$399.92B
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.4	34.4
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)			2.9%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		300K	-33K
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			63.1%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.3%	0.5%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		4.2%	4.2%
12:30	USD Trade Balance		$-43.2B	$-42.4B
12:30	CAD Exports			$43.63B
12:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$-2.60B	$-3.41B
12:30	CAD Imports			$47.04B
12:30	CAD Participation rate			65.6%
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		6.3%	6.2%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		14.5K	10.0K
14:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			55.7
14:45	USD Markit Services PMI			55.9
15:00	USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		58.6	59.8
15:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		1.3%	1.2%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			737
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$191.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			446.8K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$127.1K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-1.5K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-116.9K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€83.5K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$57.3K
Saturday, Nov 04
24h	INR Guru Nanak Birthday
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	RUB Day of Unity
24h	SEK All Saints Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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