|

EUR/GBP remains steady above 0.8400 after UK Retail Sales

  • EUR/GBP shows no movement after the release of weaker-than-expected UK Retail Sales on Friday.
  • UK Retail Sales fell by 1.2% month-over-month in June, compared to the projected 0.4% decline.
  • ECB President Lagarde provided no hints about the stance for the next meeting, stating that September was "wide open."

EUR/GBP holds mild gains around 0.8420 during the Asian session following the release of UK Retail Sales data on Friday. The volume of sales of goods by retailers fell by 1.2% month-over-month in June, reversing the 2.9% increase seen in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This decline was steeper than the projected 0.4% drop.

UK Retail Sales decreased by 0.2% year-over-year in June, compared to a 1.3% increase in May. Core Retail Sales also fell by 0.8% YoY in June, down from a 1.2% growth in the previous month, missing expectations. Additionally, the GfK Group Consumer Confidence Index for July showed a decline to -13 from -14, falling short of the forecasted -12.

Investors have been pricing out the possibility of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut following Wednesday's final UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, which met forecasts. However, a larger-than-expected drop in the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation briefly pressured the British Pound.

On the EUR front, Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, surpassing the anticipated 0.1% rise. Year-over-year, PPI fell by 1.6% in June, meeting expectations and improving from the previous 2.2% decline.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its main refinancing rate at 4.25%, as expected, at its July Monetary Policy Meeting. The ECB's deposit facility rate also remains unchanged at 3.75%.

At the press conference following the interest rate decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated, "The question of September and what we do in September is wide open." Lagarde also noted that the monetary policy decision had been unanimous and emphasized the central bank's commitment to relying on a range of data rather than any single data point, according to Reuters.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Last release: Fri Jul 19, 2024 06:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: -1.2%

Consensus: -0.4%

Previous: 2.9%

Source: Office for National Statistics

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).