- Bitcoin price fails to impulsively rally after breaching a triangle consolidation.
- Ethereum price is back underwater and will likely trade range-bound before falling further.
- Ripple price continues to fall. A $0.25 XRP token is highly probable.
The crypto market shows early evidence that "Crypto Season" will not commence. Although the call was made for bullish volatility, new evidence suggests Market Makers are not done enticing traders before they send prices lower.
Bitcoin price targets $16,000
Bitcoin price’s failure to break from the triangular consolidation is early evidence of a future liquidity hunt targeting the $16,000. Last week Bitcoin traders took their first papercut by attempting to join a bullish breakout with a target in the mid $25,000 region. Unfortunately, the call for Crypto Season was short-lived. The triangular pattern seems to have been another smart money trap meant entice bulls to enter the market.
Bitcoin price has not fully invalidated the bullish scenario as the triangle invalidation level at $18,550 has yet to be breached. However, subtle cues signal that hope in the market will suffer a bloodier blow than taking an early papercut loss.
A Fixed Range Volume Profile indicator confounds the idea of a plummet to new lows as the BTC price breached through the congestive volume range but closed below. Auction Market practitioners who understand Wycoff Theory will likely reverse their positions to take aim at $16,000.
Bitcoin currently trades at $19,928. Invalidation of the downtrend is a break above $22,000. If the bulls can reroute north, they may be able to rally towards $25,000, resulting in a 30% increase from the current Bitcoin price.
BTC/USD 3-Hour Chart
"According to a chart posted by an analyst at CNBC, Bitcoin's correlation with Invesco QQQ, an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, has reached a score of 0.894, the highest level in nearly three years. It is worth pointing out that a score of 1 would mean an exact correlation" -
Felipe Erazo - Social Media Manager & Analyst @FXStreet
Original Tweet @TheDomino
Ethereum price is done
Ethereum price was last week's best-performing trade setup as analysts at FXStreet captured a 14% gain. It was mentioned in the follow-up thesis to reduce risk by moving the invalidation level to break even at $1,122. Additionally, it was noted that the newly established ascending trendline should propel the ETH price higher if market conditions were genuinely bullish.
Ethereum price provided early evidence of failure as the decentralized smart contract token failed to propel from the steep ascending trendline. On July 11, a new bearish thesis noted an inevitable breach of the $1,122 level with targets in the $1,000 vicinity. During the Asian session, the bears accomplished a break of the supportive barrier and are currently at a 4% profit as Ethereum trades at $1,083.
Traders looking to join the bearish trend should consider waiting for a retest-and-rally signal from the bears at the weekly trend line while maintaining the invalidation at the 200-week moving average (WMA), currently positioned at $1,200. Keep in mind that a breach of the $1,200 invalidation level could trigger a volatility spike targeting $1,500 resulting in a 25% increase from the current Ethereum price.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Ripple price targets $0.25
Ripple's XRP price has been the underperforming asset amongst the top 3 for the past three weeks. Ripple has not shown an impulsive rally worth believing in. While the call for Crypto Season based on Bitcoin's technicals was made, it was noted in the same thesis that traders should avoid buying the XRP price unless a breach above $0.35 occurred. On July 11, the bears validated the cautionary warnings by breaking the weekly trend line at $0.32.
Ripple price currently trades at $0.315 as the bears have profited 8% since the cautionary thesis was issued. If the bulls do not show up soon, a plummet toward $0.25 will inevitably occur. A classical retest and fly signal could be the entry signal for bears looking to join the market.
Invalidation of the bearish thesis remains a breach of $0.35. If the bulls can conquer this level, they could rally as high as $0.45, resulting in a 45% increase from the current XRP price.
XRP/USDT 3-Hour Chart
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