EURUSD: Breaking the upward trend-line

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EUR/USD

Breaking the upward trend-line.

• EUR/USD keeps pushing higher. Hourly resistance at 1.1460 (18/09/2015 high) has been broken. Other resistance can be found at 1.1561 (26/08/2015 low). Support can be found at 1.1087 (03/09/2015 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1017 (18/08/2015 low). Expected test of the resistance at 1.1561.

• In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle from 2010-2014 favored further weakness towards parity. As a result, we view the recent sideways moves as a pause in an underlying declining trend. Key supports can be found at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low) and 1.0000 (psychological support). We remain in a downside momentum.

GBP/USD

Sharp reversal.

• GBP/USD is pushing strongly higher. Hourly resistance at 1.5383 (22/09/2015 low) has been broken. Hourly support can be found at 1.5087 (05/05/2015 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.4960 (23/04/2015 low). Expected consolidation.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a recovery. Strong support is given by the long-term rising trend-line. A key support can be found at 1.4566 (13/04/2015 low).

USD/JPY

Challenging support at 118.61.

• USD/JPY is pushing downward. There is a growing short-term momentum. The pair is holding below the 200-day moving average. Hourly support is given at 118.61 (04/09/2015 low). Stronger support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 121.75 (28/08/2015 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Breaking support at 0.9528.

• USD/CHF is declining and has broken hourly support at 0.9528 (18/09/2015 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9844 (25/09/2015 high). Expected consolidation.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 suggesting the end of the downtrend. This reinstates the bullish trend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low).

USD/CAD

Ready to challenge support at 1.2862.

• USD/CAD is moving in either direction. However the short-term technical structure is negative. Hourly support can be found at 1.2862 (29/07/2015 low) and hourly resistance lies at 1.3080 (13/10/2015 high). Expected test of the support at 1.2862.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Support can be found at 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Short-term bullish.

• AUD/USD is in a short-term bullish momentum. The technical structure is positive. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7382 (12/10/2015 high). Hourly support lies at 0.6893 (04/09/2015 low).

• In the long-term, there is no sign to suggest the end of the current downtrend. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

GBP/JPY

Trading in range.

• GBP/JPY is improving. Hourly support can be found at 180.24 (04/09/2015 low). Expected test of psychological resistance at 190.00.

• In the long-term, the lack of any medium-term bearish reversal pattern favours a bullish bias. The successful test of the strong support at 175.51 (03/02/2015 low) signals persistent buying interest. Key resistances stand at 197.45 (26/09/2008 high). A major support area can be found between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low).

EUR/JPY

Consolidating.

• EUR/JPY is confirming its bullish direction by holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Hourly resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high) and hourly support lies at 132.23 (04/09/2015 low). Expected increase of the pair.

• In the longer term, the break of the support at 130.15 validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Lack of follow through.

• EUR/GBP declined after breaking hourly resistance at 0.7442 (02/10/2015 high). Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7302 (25/09/2015 low). Expected increase of the pair.

• In the long-term, prices are in an underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a limited medium-term downside potential. A key resistance lies at 0.7592 (03/02/2015 high).

EUR/CHF

Lack of momentum.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways. Hourly resistance lies at 1.0982 (25/09/2015 high) and hourly support can be found at 1.0823 (22/09/2015 low). Expected break of the symmetrical triangle implied by the declining trend-line.

• The EUR/CHF is digesting its 15 January sharp decline. A key resistance stands at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

GOLD

Bullish momentum.

• Gold is gaining upside momentum. Hourly resistance is given at 1156 (24/09/2015 high) and at 1168 (24/08/2015 high). Hourly support can be found at 1093 (12/08/2015 low). Stronger support can be found at 1077 (24/07/2015 low). Expected test of the resistance at 1205 (18/06/2015 high)

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. Although the key support at 1132 (07/11/2014 low) has been broken, a break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Pushing higher.

• Silver is increasing and the momentum is gaining more traction. Hourly resistance at 16.12 (07/10/2015 high) has been broken. Hourly support is given at 13.98 (24/07/2015 low). Expected growing upside momentum. The pair will likely settle above the 200 DMA.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. The strong support at 14.66 (05/02/2010 low) has been broken and prices have then consolidated. A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

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