EUR/CHF: Bearish breakout at 1.0666

EUR/USD

Bearish breakout at 1.1262.

• EUR/USD has broken to the downside out of the range defined by the support at 1.1262 and the resistance at 1.1450. Further weakness towards the support at 1.1098 is favoured. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.1279 (20/02/2015 low) and 1.1389 (see also the declining channel).

• In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle favours further weakness towards parity. As a result, any strength is likely to be temporary in nature. Key resistances stand at 1.1679 (21/01/2015 high) and 1.1871 (12/01/2015 high). Key supports can be found at 1.1000 (psychological support) and 1.0765 (03/09/2003 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Pickup in selling pressures.

• GBP/USD weakened sharply near the key resistance at 1.5620 yesterday. A decisive break of the hourly support at 1.5395 (26/02/2015 low, see also the rising trendline) would invalidate the short-term uptrend. Another hourly support stands at 1.5317.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.5274 (06/01/2015 high) suggests renewed buying interest. Upside potentials are likely given by the resistances at 1.5620 (31/12/2014 high) and 1.5826 (27/11/2014 high). A strong support stands at 1.4814.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Succession of higher lows intact.

• USD/JPY made an intraday bearish reversal on 24 February, indicating exhaustion in the shortterm buying interest. However, the succession of higher lows remains thus far intact. An hourly support lies at 118.63, while a key support stands at 118.18 (see also the longer-term rising trendline). An hourly resistance can be found at 119.84.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 110.09 (01/10/2014 high) holds. Even if a medium-term consolidation is likely underway, there is no sign to suggest the end of the long-term bullish trend. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favoured. A key support can be found at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Remains below the resistance at 0.9554.

• USD/CHF remains thus far below the resistance at 0.9554. An hourly support is given by the rising trendline (around 0.9416). A break of the support at 0.9374 (20/02/2015 low) is needed to invalidate the current bullish momentum.

• Following the removal of the EUR/CHF floor, a major top has been formed at 1.0240. The break of the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off suggests a strong buying interest. Other key resistances stand at 0.9554 (16/12/2014 low) and 0.9831 (25/12/2014 low). A key support can be found at 0.9170 (30/01/2015 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Pickup in buying interest.

• USD/CAD has seen a pickup in buying interest near the key support area between 1.2352 and 1.2314. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.2540 (intraday low) and 1.2664.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose maximum upside potential is given by the strong resistance at 1.3065 (09/03/2009 high). The recent weakness is seen as a medium-term corrective phase. Key supports stand at 1.2314 (22/01/2015 low) and 1.2047 (intraday low).

Buy limit 2 units at 1.2363, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.2646, remaining at 1.2950, Stop: 1.2290.

AUD/USD

Fading near the top of its declining channel.

• AUD/USD has weakened near the resistance implied by the declining channel (around 0.7932). Hourly supports are given by the rising channel (around 0.7774) and 0.7740 (24/02/2015 low). A key support stands at 0.7626.

• In the long-term, there is no sign to suggest the end of the current downtrend. The break of the strong support area between 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low) and 0.7947 (61.8% retracement of the 2009-2011 rise) favours further weakness. A key support stands at 0.7451 (18/05/2009 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Fading bullish momentum?

• GBP/JPY has recently only been able to make marginal new highs, suggesting a potential weakening momentum. A decisive break of the hourly support at 183.54 would strengthen such hypothesis. Other hourly supports stand at 182.62 (23/02/2015 low, see also the rising trendline) and 181.54. An hourly resistance now lies at 185.03 (26/02/2015 high).

• In the long-term, the lack of any medium-term bearish reversal pattern favours a bullish bias. A support is given by the 200-day moving average (around 176.30), while a strong support area lies between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low). A strong resistances stands at 190.00 (psychological threshold).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Challenging the support at 133.55.

• EUR/JPY is moving is a short-term declining channel. Monitor the test of the support at 133.55. Hourly resistances can now be found at 134.45 (23/02/2015 low) and 136.24 (17/02/2015 high) and 135.37 (26/02/2015 high). Another support lies at 132.00.

• In the longer term, the break of the strong support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) invalidates the long-term succession of higher lows. The resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. More sideways moves are now expected. A key support stands at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low), whereas key resistances can be found at 137.64 (20/01/2015 high) and 141.72 (08/01/2015 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Touching the low of its long-term declining channel.

• EUR/GBP has made new lows, confirming an underlying bearish trend. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.7352 (intraday high) and 0.7429 (20/02/2015 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. A key support can be found at 0.7089 (03/12/2007 low). A key resistance now lies at 0.7596 (16/01/2015 low).

The remaining position has been closed.

EUR/CHF

Bearish breakout at 1.0666.

• EUR/CHF has successfully tested the resistance at 1.0812 and has broken the hourly support at 1.0666, validating a short-term double-top formation. A support stands at 1.0551 (see also the rising trendline).

• The EUR/CHF is again a free-floating currency and has declined to uncharted water. The break of the key resistance at 1.0600 indicates an improving buying interest. Another key resistance stands at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). However, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on EUR/CHF, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. A key support can be found at 1.0357 (30/01/2015 low).

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Fading near the resistance at 1223.

• Gold is showing signs of weakness near the hourly resistance at 1223 (19/02/2015 high). Hourly supports lie at 1201 (intraday low) and 1191, while a key support can be found at 1168 (02/01/2015 low). Another resistance stands at 1246 (10/02/2015 high).

• In the long-term, the break of strong resistance at 1255 (21/10/2014 high, see also the 200-day moving average) indicates an improving technical structure. However, the shape of this advance still looks like a countertrend move within an underlying downtrend (see declining channel). A key support stands at 1132 (07/11/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Fading near the resistance at 16.80.

• Silver has moved above the hourly resistance at 16.80, but has failed to hold above it. Given the sharp bearish reversal near the declining trendline, a negative bias remains favoured. The hourly support at 16.45 (intraday low) is challenged. Another hourly support lies at 16.11, while a key support stands at 15.53. Resistances can now be found at 19.90 (26/02/2015 high) and 17.45.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Although the strong support at 14.66 (05/02/2010 low) has held thus far, the lack of any base formation continues to favour a long-term bearish bias. A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.