EUR/GBP - Monitor the strong resistance area between 0.8034 and 0.8066

EUR/USD

Recent strength still seen as a rebound.

• EUR/USD has broken to the upside out of its short-term symmetrical triangle. However, given the resistances at 1.2901 (see also the rising channel) and 1.2995, we do not see a significant upside potential. An hourly support can be found at 1.2737 (intraday low). Another support lies at 1.2625 (15/10/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a downtrend since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) has opened the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). As a result, the recent strength in EUR/USD is seen as a countertrend move. A key resistance stands at 1.2995 (16/09/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

The key support at 1.5855 has held thus far.

• GBP/USD saw some buying interest near the key support at 1.5855. However, the current failure to hold above the hourly resistance at 1.6009 (10/10/2014 low) suggests persistent selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6127 (13/10/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Despite the recent short-term bearish momentum, we favour a temporary rebound near the support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.6525.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

The support at 106.81 has been broken.

• USD/JPY has broken the support at 106.81. Given the key support at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high, see also the 50% retracement), a shortterm consolidation phase is likely. An hourly resistance lies at 106.81 (16/09/2014 low), while a key resistance stands at 107.59.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. Despite the recent decline near the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), a gradual move higher is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high). A key support lies at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Bearish breakout at 0.9469.

• USD/CHF weakened sharply yesterday, breaking the supports at 0.9469 and 0.9433. However, the sharp decline to 0.9368 is likely overdone in the short-term, especially as no significant bearish reversal can be seen. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9474 (intraday high) and 0.9562.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. As a result, the recent weakness is seen as a countertrend move. A key support can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low). A resistance now lies at 0.9691 (06/10/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Uptrend intact despite yesterday's weakness.

• USD/CAD has broken the resistance area between 1.1271 (03/10/2014 high) and 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high), calling for further strength. A break of the support at 1.1217 is needed to alleviate this bullish outlook. An hourly resistance can now be found at 1.1385.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. The break of the resistance at 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) confirms this bullish outlook. Strong supports can be found at 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low) and 1.0811 (29/08/2014 low). 

• Yesterday's sharp decline has stopped our long position.

Our long position has been stopped.

AUD/USD

Consolidating.

• AUD/USD has bounced near the key support at 0.8643/0.8660 (24/01/2014 low). A key resistance stands at 0.8897, while an hourly resistance now lies at 0.8859 (15/10/2014 high). An hourly support can be found at 0.8704 (intraday low, see also the rising channel).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Despite the recent successful test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low), the long-term technical structure favours further decline. A key resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Sharp reversal near the key support at 169.51.

• GBP/JPY moved below the key support at 169.51 yesterday, which triggered some buying interest, allowing prices to close above this key support level. Coupled with the support at 167.78, the odds to see a consolidation phase have increased. Hourly resistances can be found at 171.15 (15/10/2014 high) and 172.49 (14/10/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support area between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds. However, the sharp reversal near the psychological threshold at 180.00 and the fading 200-day moving average indicate a weakening trend.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

The key support at 135.73 has been broken.

• EUR/JPY has broken the key support at 135.73 yesterday, opening the way for a further decline. Hourly resistances stand at 136.65 (09/10/2014 low) and 137.07 (10/10/2014 high). A support now lies at 134.11.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. However, the break of the support at 135.73 and the declining slope of the 200-day moving average signal a weakening long-term trend. A resistance can be found at 141.23 (19/09/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Monitor the strong resistance area between 0.8034 and 0.8066.

• EUR/GBP has risen sharply and is now close to the strong resistance area between 0.8034 and 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high, see also the declining channel). A phase of weakness is likely. Hourly supports now stand at 0.7961 (intraday high) and 0.7936 (15/10/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Weakening.

• EUR/CHF continues to weaken. Prices are approaching the supports at 1.2053 (30/09/2014 low) and 1.2045. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2097 (intraday high) and 1.2118 (intraday high).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is unlikely to be broken. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the medium-term.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Pushing higher.

• Gold continues to bounce. The resistance at 1235 has been broken and the one at 1242 is challenged. The short-term momentum is positive as long as the hourly support at 1222 (15/10/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 1203 (07/10/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 1258 (09/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, despite the successful test of the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low), the underlying downtrend and the recent 4-year lows in silver favour an eventual break lower. Resistances can be found at 1242 (16/09/2014 high) and 1277 (04/09/2014 high). Other supports can be found at 1157 (28/07/2010 low) and 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Moving sideways.

• Silver is moving sideways between the support at 17.06 and the resistance at 17.74 (26/09/2014 high). Another support lies at 16.68 (06/10/2014 low), whereas a key resistance stands at 18.00 (23/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.