USDCHF: Monitor the resistance at 0.9107

EUR/USD

Intraday bullish reversal near the key support at 1.3296.

• EUR/USD made a bullish intraday reversal yesterday (hammer). Coupled with the proximity of the key support at 1.3296, the odds of a shortterm rebound are increasing. Resistances stand at 1.3444 and 1.3503 (05/06/2014 low). An hourly can now be found at 1.3333 (06/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Remains thus far weak.

• GBP/USD has thus far failed to break the hourly resistance at 1.6893 (see also the declining trendline), suggesting persistent selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6928 (intraday high). An hourly support lies at 1.6814.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).

• We have updated the stop-loss of our long strategy.

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6865.

USD/JPY

Bearish breakout at 1002.36.

• USD/JPY has broken the support at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high), suggesting further sideways move within the broad horizontal range between 100.76 and 103.02. An hourly support lies at 101.72 (see also the 61.8% retracement), whereas an hourly resistance can be found at 102.46 (05/08/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Monitor the resistance at 0.9107.

• USD/CHF has thus far failed to decisively break the hourly resistance at 0.9107. However, the short-term bullish momentum remains positive as long as the support at 0.9041 (01/08/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 0.9008.

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Monitor the key resistance at 1.0961.

• USD/CAD retraced most of Tuesday's gains yesterday. Monitor the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). Hourly supports stand at 1.0905 (04/08/2014 low) and 1.0845 (intraday low). Another resistance can be found at 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Making new lows.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. Today's new lows confirm this downside potential. An hourly resistance lies at 0.9355/0.9374.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Pushing lower.

• GBP/JPY has broken the key support at 172.38. However, prices are now close to the support implied by the rising channel (around 171.25). Another support lies at 170.97. Hourly resistances can now be found at 172.78 (05/08/2014 low) and 173.51 (05/08/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

The support at 136.23 has held thus far.

• EUR/JPY remains within its declining channel. Monitor the key support at 136.23. Another support stands at 134.11. Hourly resistances can be found at 137.34 (22/07/2014 high) and 138.03 (01/08/2014 high).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Consolidating.

• EUR/GBP is consolidating after failing to break the resistance at 0.7981. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) and 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Bearish breakout at 1.2155.

• EUR/CHF has broken the hourly support at 1.2155 (01/08/2014 low, see also the rising trendline), validating a double-top formation. A new test of the support at 1.2134 is favoured. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2155 (previous support) and 1.2162 (06/08/2014 high).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

The declining channel has been broken.

• Gold has broken to the upside out of its shortterm declining channel. Hourly resistances can be found at 1311 (23/07/2014 high) and 1325. Hourly supports stand at 1297 (01/08/2014 high) and 1279.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

The declining channel remains in place.

• Silver bounced yesterday. However, prices remain within their declining channel. Hourly resistances lie at 20.29 and 20.56 (01/08/2014 high). Supports can be found at 19.76 (61.8% retracement) and 19.47.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.