UK yield rise following Kwarteng's fiscal event

Notes/Observations

- Risk aversion led by continued strong dollar on the back of recent of Central Bank hikes earlier in the week.

- UK, Germany, France and Euro Zone all registered contractions in preliminary manufacturing PMI readings, spiking recession fears.

- UK 'Mini Fiscal Event' announced a scrap of 45% additional income tax rate, including a lifting of banker's bonuses, cancelled the planned corporation tax increase and reversed national insurance rise. Declared the cost of energy package to be around £60B over 6 months and that the energy package will reduce inflation by 5%.  Announcement confirmed speculated plans.

- UK DMO ramps up issuance and announced FY22/23 Gilt issuance at £193.9B compared to £131.5B from April. UK 10-year moved sharply higher.

- Asia closed lower with ASX200 underperforming at -1.9%. EU indices are -0.9-1.3% lower, with bond yields mixed with UK 10Y moving substantially higher. US futures are firmly in the red. Gold -0.7%, DXY +0.6%; Commodity: Brent -2.0%, WTI -2.2%, UK Nat Gas +3.3%; Crypto: BTC -0.7%, ETH +2.1%.

Asia

- Australia Sept Preliminary PMI registered its 29th month of expansion (53.9 v 53.8 prior).

- Japan markets closed for holiday.

Europe

- UK Sept GfK Consumer Confidence: -49 v -42e (record low).

Americas

- Treasury Sec Yellen stated that saw signs of supply chain constraints easing; Inflation was going to come down, certainly next year, perhaps not to 2% inflation target.

- US Senate Majority Leader Schumer took the first preliminary step toward considering stopgap funding legislation needed by the end of next week to avoid a partial government shutdown.

Energy

- EU diplomats expected to discuss plan to cap the price of Russian oil (also currently being discussed in the G7> Plan faces many hurdles and a positive outcome is not a given.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.88% at 396.26, FTSE -1.25% at #, DAX -0.88% at 12,420.79, CAC-40 -0.84% at 5,868.58, IBEX-35 -1.21% at 7,680.41, FTSE MIB -1.20% at 21,538.00, SMI -0.98% at 10,196.80, S&P 500 Futures -0.67%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board and fell further as the session wore on; better performing sectors include health care and consumer discretionary; sectors among those leading to the downside are energy and materials; reportedly Aveva to reject offer from Schneider; reportedly MFE to buy 48% stake in Metropole Television; no major events expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Metropole Television M6 [MMT.FR] +9% (potential stake sale), Made.com [MADE.UK] -22% (withdraws outlook).

- Financials: Credit Suisse [CSGN.CH] -6% (mores speculations on potential bank's splits), Hypoport [HYQ.DE] -37% (prelim results; suspends outlook).

- Materials: Norsk Hydro [NHY.NO] +0.5% (buyback).

- Industrials: Smiths Group [SMIN.UK] +2% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB's Kazaks (Latvia, hawk) reiterated stance that Council would continue raising interest rates. Faster US rate hikes have weakened the EUR (euro).

- Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Kwarteng 'Mini Fiscal Event' noted that energy plan to reduce peak inflation. Estimate energy package to cost £60B over 6 months. Economic growth was not as high as it should be and sought trend rate of 2.5%. Plan to expand supply side via tax incentives and reform. Will scrap the bankers’ bonus tax and cancel planned rise in corporation tax. To cancel rise in alcohol duty and reverse the plan rise in National Insurance. To cut stamp duty on homes; and exemption limit to be doubled to £250K for 1st time buyers.

- UK DMO announce a revised Gilt Remit with net financing requirement for FY22/23 raised to £234.1B vs. £161.7B from April budget. Gross Gilt Issuance: £193.9B compared to £131.5B from April).

- Poland Central Bank member Kotecki stated that expected a pause in rate hikes.

- Hungary Fin Min Varga stated that inflation could peak next year and then start slowly declining.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD maintained its recent strength despite the coordinated central bank tightening to tame inflation. Overall the Fed perceived to remain ahead of other G10 central banks on this front.

- EUR/USD at fresh 20-year lows as various EU PMI readings highlighted the fact of the deepening economic downturn in the region.

- GBP/USD below the 1.12 level for its lowest level since 1985. Focus was on upcoming UK fiscal stimulus package that to included caps on energy bills and tax cuts.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 2.6%e v 2.6% prelim; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.3% prelim.

- (NO) Norway Aug Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior.

- (FR) France Q2 Final Wages Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.0% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.5% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 6.8% v 6.3%e.

- (HU) Hungary July Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 15.3% v 15.3%e.

- (MY) Malaysia mid-Sept Foreign Reserves: $106.3B v $108.2B prior.

- (FR) France Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 47.8 v 49.8e (back to contraction and lowest since May 2020; PMI Services: 53.0 v 50.5e PMI Composite: 51.2 v 49.9e.

- (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 v 48.3e (3rd straight contraction and lowest since June 2020); PMI Services: 45.4 v 47.2e; PMI Composite: 45.9 v 46.1e.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 36.9K v 35.9K tons prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 48.8e (3rd straight contraction and lowest since June 2020); PMI Services: # v 49.1e; PMI Composite: # v 48.2e.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Sept 16th (RUB): T v 14.56T prior.

- (PL) Poland Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.7% v 0.4%e.

- (UK) Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 47.5e (2nd straight contraction); PMI Services: 49.2 v 50.0e; PMI Composite: 48.4 v 49.0e.

- (IS) Iceland Aug Wage Index M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 8.1% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR280B vs. INR320B indicated in 2027, 2028, 2036 and 2052 bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.2B in I/L 2033, 2038 and 2046 Bonds.

- 06:00 (UK) Sept CBI Retailing Reported Sales: 10e v 37 prior; Total Distribution Reported Sales: No est v +11 prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug PPI M/M: No est v +2.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively).

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Sept 16th: No est v $550.9B prior.

- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2024 and 2031 RIKB Bonds.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug PPI M/M: No est v 1.1% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Retail Sales M/M: -2.0%e v +1.1% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: -1.0%e v +0.8% prior.

- 09:45 (US) Sept Preliminary S&P/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 51.0e v 51.5 prior; PMI Services: 45.5e v 43.7 prior; PMI Composite: 46.1e v 44.6 prior.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 11;30 (DE) ECB’s Nagel (Germany).

- 14:00 US) Fed Chief Powell at event.