GBP/NZD 1H Chart: Falling Wedge

EUR/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Down

Comment: Following high levels of volatility late last year and early 2015 EUR/PLN entered a moderate down-trend. The channel itself implies a bearish outlook on the Euro. However, since the pair has recently confirmed the lower boundary of the pattern, this is a good reason to be long the common currency as long as we are at a safe distance from the resistance line at 4.13. Still, there are dangers for a bullish position we should be aware of, such as supply at 4.12 and the technical indicators that suggest a negative bias towards EUR/PLN. Accordingly, it would be more reasonable to short the Euro after the upward correction ends, although at the moment 71% of open positions are long; only 29% are short.

GBP/NZD 1H Chart: Falling Wedge

Comment: The Sterling has been recovering since last Wednesday, but there are indications the bullish momentum is about to give way for a sell-off. GBP/NZD has formed a rising wedge, a reversal pattern, as a correction in a bearish market. Accordingly, we expect the lower trend-line (currently at 1.9712) to be violated eventually. In this case the first target will be the 200-hour SMA at 1.9664, followed by other strong supports at 1.9622 and at 1.9520. On the other hand, should the price close above the resistance trend-line (1.98), the objectives will be 1.9842 and then 1.9900. Violation of the latter level may well result in a rally up to 2.0250. Still, most positions are short, namely 69% of them.